Another ice age within 15 years, say Russian scientists

“The Earth is heading towards another ice age as solar magnetic activity is set to drop by up to 60 per cent in the next 15 years,” warns new study.

Experts say that solar activity has not been this low since the Maunder Minimum, a period of low sunspot activity between 1645 and 1715 when the entire Thames froze over. That period is also considered the deepest part of the last “Little Ice Age.”

A new model forecasts solar cycles based upon dynamo effects in two layers of the Sun, which, in theory, dictate how the Earth’s outer core conducts materials across the magnetic field to create an electric current.

Valentina Zharkova from Northumbria University, who applied this theory to the Sun, says she can predict the affects of solar cycles with 97 per cent accuracy.

Based on her findings, Ms Zharkova says the next solar cycle is set to peak in 2022, and the cycle after that, Cycle 26, will herald a new ice age.

“We predict that this will lead to the properties of a ‘Maunder minimum’,” Zharkova insists.

“During the Maunder minimum, temperatures dropped globally by 1.3 degrees celsius,” warns The Express.

Although such an apparently minor drop in temperature seems insignificant, “it led to shorter seasons and ultimately food shortages.” (And to millions of deaths, I might add.)

See entire article:

Thanks to Val Robins, Edward Nowak, Vance and Gordon Broussard for this link

34 thoughts on “Another ice age within 15 years, say Russian scientists”

  1. Although I have a strong feeling that we are indeed heading towards a colder world, I am not sure of how cold, or how long that cold will last. As for the “accuracy” claimed here of being 97% accurate, it is still based on “modelling” and I question the accuracy claim. Anything with the term “97%” tends to raise a red flag for me.

    • There is nothing wrong with using a model providing you have sufficient knowledge of the system you are trying to model. The global circulation models aren’t which is why they don’t work. The ocean circulation models don’t work either based on the experience of somebody who worked using them to plot pollution flows from disasters.

      The question is do we know how the sun works. A probe to study the sun was blown up on launch a few years ago with no replacement due until I think next year. And yet billions are spent trying to prove the CO2 link. But then that is to keep a trillion dollar industry going that makes easy money rather than doing something useful that requires effort.

      And remember that the scientists from Russia, China and some others are independent and not on the warmist gravy train.

  2. Now the sun is starting to reach my criteria.

    My claim is the 11 year sunspot so called normal cycle and the climate will not show a relationship because the noise in the climate system obscures the slight solar changes not to mention the variations within the 11 year sunspot cycle from maximum to minimum conditions cancel each other out.

    Only when the sun enters extreme prolonged periods of inactivity or activity for that matter are those two issues nullified and hence a solar /climate connection is able to be established. It is no longer obscured.

    I have come up with the minimum solar parameters needed in order to accomplish this by looking at the historical climatic record and how it has responded to solar activity. It shows each and every time the sun enters a protracted period of extreme inactivity the response in global temperatures has been down.

    That is fact and until data shows otherwise I think the case for a solar/climate relationship is strong.

    In addition the sun drives the climate therefore logic follows that any change in solar conditions has to have an effect on the climate to one degree or another. The point is how large is the effect and is it large enough to overcome the noise in the climate system which can obscure small minor solar changes.

    The other side is what are the extreme solar changes in regards to degree of magnitude and duration of time needed to change the climate through solar activity changes themselves and associates secondary solar effects?

    I am sure every one agrees that if solar changes are extreme enough there would be a point where a solar/climate relationship would be obvious. The question is what does the solar change have to be in order to be extreme enough to show an obvious solar/climate relationship?

    Again I have listed the solar parameters which I think satisfy this issue.

  3. I have put forth those solar parameters /duration of time which I feel are needed to impact the climate and I think gong forward the solar parameters I have put forth will come to be which will then manifest itself in the climate system by causing it to cool. I dare say I think it has started already.

    How cool it is hard to say because there are climatic thresholds out there which if the terrestrial items driven by solar changes should reach could cause a much more dramatic climatic impact.

    Terrestrial Items

    atmospheric circulation patterns

    volcanic activity

    global cloud coverage

    global snow coverage

    global sea surface temperatures

    global sea ice coverage

    ENSO a factor within the overall global sea surface temperature changes.

    Solar Parameters Needed and Sustained.

    cosmic ray count 6500 or greater

    solar wind speed 350 km/sec or less

    euv light 100 units or less.

    solar irradiance off by .15% or more

    ap index 5 or lower

    Interplanetary Magnetic Field 4.5 nt or lower

    Solar Flux 90 or lower

    Duration of time over 1 year following at least 10 years of sub solar activity in general which we have had going back to year 2005.

    We should know within a year as prolonged minimum solar conditions become entrenched.

  4. Mini Ice age (MIA) please. We are already in an Ice Age, this is just a short 15K years Interglacial which we are close to the end off, just 1200 years of warmth left.

    But then again we are talking about the Express.

    • Is this not the same study that came out last year? If so, the Express is a little behind the times! Not surprising! Actually, I hate it when the gutter press start talking about Ice Ages, as nobody ever takes it seriously.

    • Thanks for making the distinction. It is perhaps unfortunate that the Maunder Minimum was inappropriately named “the Little Ice Age”.
      I always appreciate your posts and it is good to see Salvatore here too.

  5. This report is a little confusing. When Ms Zharkova says the next solar cycle is set to peak in 2022, and the cycle after that, Cycle 26, will herald a new ice age is she talking about a little or even a mini ice age that will be measured in decades or centuries or is she talking about a major glaciation that lasts an average of a 105,000 years? We need to be sure about this.

      • I really don’t think it will matter, if the big ones here, it will start when the little one don’t quit. 12900 since Younger Dryas event killed most of N.H. life, 15000 yrs since last major ice age started to go away, sounds like 11500 fits in there somewhere. eh? 9484 BC was well after Younger Dryas, that was 11500 yrs ago, seems all Interglacials may not be the same on spinning clay ball at 30k per hr through the galaxy.

      • You are correct and my posting was based on my initial reaction to the term ice age. I didn’t read the article until after posting my comment. My mistake.

    • Current planetry science predictions suggest that the current modern Solar Grand Minimum is a single pair of affected solar output cycles similar to AD600, Oort, Wolf and Dalton.
      Deep yes, but not a MIA like the sequence of disturbed cycles from Wolf to Dalton, AD 1250 and 1850 AD which include Spoorer and Maunder.
      The following graph is the 14C record that shows clearly the large deep groups of grand minima (that stand out from smaller grand minima) that form Little Ice Age clusters like seen between 1250 and 1850 AD.
      Nicola Scafetta has a new paper out that looks at the Hallstatt cycle over the Holocene. The Hallstatt cycle is a quasi cycle that centres between 2100-2500 years when looking at grand minima over the Holocene.

  6. And just who believes the action of a spinning object with a magnetic field traveling at 30 km per second inside a huge magnetic field generated by another much larger spinning object could possibly generate any energy ? Oh wait …

    • The earth generates its own magnetic field, it does have energy transfer points from pole to pole shared with the sun.
      The trending data shows a dying solar output from which has been ongoing for thousands of years looking at long term averages from multiple sources. Calculating the law of averages pertaining to the graphs from these known accurate sources of the sun on a slope downward on the short term one can hypothesis we are entering a very, very cold next several decades.
      Will this be the next “BIG” ice age? Keep recording that data people, time will tell so the saying goes. Until then one should prepare ones self accordingly.
      Will this be the end of large warming solar cycles? A fellow that wrote a book says no. It goes something like this, “For I will make the sun so hot that men will curse my name”. And if the super heating occurs after a full blown ice age, no doubt there will be civilizations lost alas!
      Peace All

  7. “A new model forecasts solar cycles based upon dynamo effects in two layers of the Sun, which, in theory, dictate how the Earth’s outer core conducts materials across the magnetic field to create an electric current.”

    Are you sure this is how the theory goes? My impression is that the variance of action of the Earth’s outer core is known. And that this knowledge is then applied, by analogy , to predict the actions of the Sun which are somewhat parallel. But I don’t know much about it. It’s a very complicated field.

  8. Norway, 22.10.2016. Here you have to reckon with snowfall over the weekend. Winter knocks and it is only a matter of time before you are greeted by a white blanket if you venture outdoors. In several counties in Eastern Norway reported snow. Meteorological Department has issued OBS forecast for six counties in southern Norway.
    Both in Romerikssenteret hills in Akershus, Koppang Hedmark and Oppland Vinstra in is reported snow Saturday and Sunday, according

  9. Russia, today (October 23, 2016): Forecasters promise for Krasnoyarsk snow, blowing snow and strong wind (with video)
    Strong wind, snow, and weather forecasters even promise snowstorm in the region over the weekend and early next week. On Sunday the wind is blowing at a speed of 9 m / s, on Monday will increase to 13 -18 meters. The average daily temperature is below normal for three to five degrees. At night, the weekend, the thermometer will drop to the level of -10 -12 degrees. Happy Sunday to -5. Bright sunny days is not worth waiting in the weekend and early next week will be changeable cloudy. On Monday and Tuesday at night from -8 to -11, day to -3 degrees. According to the meteorologist the coldest day will be Wednesday. In the daytime -8 cloudy and snow, and at night to -10 degrees.
    Forecasters KRASNOYARSK Hydrometeorological Center: “In the north of here, in connection with the release of the cyclone from the coast, you can expect snow, blizzards in the south of Taimyr, sometimes strong gusts of 13-18 m / s, sometimes 23-25 ​​m / s northeast -vostoku. The temperature during the day -5, -10 degrees. In the future, as the offset to the southeast of Evenkia cyclone here will start cooling. Night will be about minus 13, 14 degrees.

  10. Perhaps when and where there are mass extinctions … the magnetic field of the planet is lost with the loss of that life “vibrancy”; example, Mars … no life … yet residual magnetics there, apparently (life there at one time … a few million years back?); so, no life … no magnetic field?

    Mars lacks a magnetic field … at least now; it’s residual magnetics suggests at one time it did have such … so, perhaps, at one time … there was life on Mars? If the present version of the solar system planets are indeed 5 billion years old, what’s a few million years here and there, in such an evolution … or perhaps re-evolution … if indeed something was here prior to that 5 billion year period?

    Earth … 7 billion plus people … so with the population explosion … more life force magnetic energy? Hmm … what if a lot of the people and life forms departed? Would the energy of the planet drop?

    Perhaps … in the past Earth history … magnetic field loss and energy loss “followed” mass extinctions? Which came first, one might wonder … the chicken, or the egg?

    Oh well … a little thought outside the box; in any case … walk into any room (with people in it … at least you, if you walked in) … what’s the sum total of the magnetic energy (life energy?) of the furniture in the room and the building components … versus … that of the people?

    Hmm … lots to ponder … and here, as well … is there a record of the historical input of solar energy from coronal holes? What if incoming energy from coronal holes jumps … which it seems to be doing, at the moment, by the way.

    Ionosphere heats up, as a result (?) … energy being pushed down through the layers of the atmosphere, follows, mixing those … tropical storms, anyone? Quite a few of those this week on Earth after an influx of large amounts of coronal hole solar energy, just prior.

    Perhaps as that solar stream of energy hits the equator and moves to the poles … in the poles, as a result … thus energy into the planet, via the poles … so a potential heating there, from the inside out … of the planet?

    Ionosphere energy increase … a tendency to add or take away energy, to / from the planet?

    Looks like another massive coronal hole is on tap this week, as well … this time, a Northern one …

    Tropical storms pushing energy into the lithosphere / ground … earthspot earthquakes, anyone?

    Perhaps sun spots and flares are not the only things to watch and monitor … take note of … or consider?

    Ice ages … do they “follow” mass extinctions? Robert’s books seem to link the two as occurring at roughly the same time … not sure it’s clear, yet, which may have come first.

    Ah well … interesting times … no doubt.

    • Ice ages … do they “follow” mass extinctions?
      One might suspect that they cause mass extinctions or at the very least large scale die offs due to food and habitat loss.

      • Steven,
        The damage is done during the 10 to 20 year change over from warm to cold and wet.
        During this period seasons become much shorter with poor plant growth and increasing loss of harvests as the period progresses.
        As all food chain life depends on prey whether it is plants or other animals, eventually the higher animals towards the top of the food chain are affected first, with the lower life forms affected by the snow and ice and the change from Forest to Tundra. Not a lot of stuff grows in tundra unless you’re a midge or moss.

  11. suns near spotfree again
    a small cme today that surprised all
    and another BIG coronal hole
    im noticing a lot more of those this year
    and they are big ones
    the wind from which affects earths protective layers
    anything allowing extra radiation in to the surface isnt good

    • I may be wrong but didn’t the big CME of ~1857 occur during a minimum solar activy period? Just saying, that I believe CME’s might occur at any time in the cycle.

      • That is correct, Pat. The CME of the Carrington Event occurred during a solar minima. Other big CMEs have occurred during solar minima. It makes you wonder if our planet’s magnetic field weakens during times of low solar activity, thus making us more vunerable to solar storms, etc? I wonder if Mr Felix could shed some light on this?

        • I don’t know the answer to that. What I do know is that the rate of weakening has increased dramatically. When I wrote “Not by Fire but by Ice,” our magnetic field had been weakening at the rate of 5 percent every hundred years. Today, it is weakening ten times faster than that, at the rate of 5 percent per decade.

          • Thank you for your reply. Could GCRs be a factor, I wonder, given that there is a huge increase when the Sun is ‘quieter’? Is it possible that they can trigger reversals?

  12. detalis another type of event is going on .i dought this is a minimum and a more catastrophic event that ends the interglacial. (Mellts both ice caps )and forms two new poles where the the earth has a stronger fields internally.

  13. We have a few hundred years, at best, of “hard data.” All the rest is “proxy data,” which may or may not actually be true. Hard, I would think, to judge even a single million year span when the only “window” of data you are using is about .03% of the total span. So remember, IF the proxies are correct, and they might be, all this is relevant. But that’s only if the proxies truly represent reality. If they are even off a little, the accuracy of anything based on data outside of the last 300 or so years will be and should be suspect.

    I mention this only because we really tend to think that because “science says” it, it must be the truth.

    • Tree ring count samples from thousands of years old trees, ice core data from 4 separate sources and four separate nations with all the data overlapped show the exact cycles with no deviation on slopes, recorded history that ties the data cycles in conjunction one with the other, China dynasties being the most accurate in sequence with the rise and fall of the dynasty powers in respect of the cooling cycles.
      The most crucial is the timing prior to the dynasty recordings.
      With current research into the Black Sea which hosted a joint effort of the worlds leading archeology teams has put the timing of the melt off of the Great Ice Age(around 1600b.c.). With all teams concurring that we had the history from that time period backwards, i.e., they went from the bronze age directly into a stone age from the flooding in the region. Putting this new data with the ice core and time lining the cycles we find this to be most accurate Tom O, in reference to the cyclic warming and cooling over thousands of years.
      Any quirk is possible in science but the hard data is reliable and highly accurate. Again, all trends show that we should prepare for the cold that cometh.
      Hope the following documentary on the Black Sea Uncovered will be help to any wishing to view it.

      Have a good day all

      • I think your dates are a little out:
        In 1997, William Ryan and Walter Pitman published evidence that a massive flooding of the Black Sea occurred about 5600 BC through the Bosphorus. Before that date, glacial meltwater had turned the Black and Caspian Seas into vast freshwater lakes draining into the Aegean Sea. As glaciers retreated, some of the rivers emptying into the Black Sea declined in volume and changed course to drain into the North Sea.[4] The levels of the lakes dropped through evaporation, while changes in worldwide hydrology caused overall sea level to rise. The rising Mediterranean finally spilled over a rocky sill at the Bosphorus. The event flooded 155,000 km2 (60,000 sq mi) of land and significantly expanded the Black Sea shoreline to the north and west. According to the researchers, “40 km3 (10 cu mi) of water poured through each day, two hundred times the flow of the Niagara Falls. The Bosphorus flume roared and surged at full spate for at least three hundred days.”[5]

        • I believe the book they wrote was in concert with the Great Noah Flood which indeed wiped everything out in its wake. The Black Sea Uncovered research deals with the rebuilding of nations in the area after the Noah flood event, nations mentioned in biblical text after the flood which then just disappeared from history until this research uncovered the cities and the conclusion to why they disappeared.
          I can see as to how one can become confused to the details of the research if the research in question was never reviewed JimBob. Most people do tend to roll the 2 events into a single event. However, with all evidence presented in the “Uncovered” research it becomes undeniably clear 2 events happened within a mere hundreds of years time frame.
          Magnetic reversal, great flood, recovery, great ice age melt off flooding, recovery.

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