Arctic Cold Plunge forecast UK and northwestern Europe

For 13th July 2016. Looks more like October than July, says reader.

Ground Frost and Air frost risk at altitude to tender plants and crops may be at risk.

Thanks to J.H. Walker for this link

“This plot looks like a normal Autumnal forecast for the last two week of October, and not the first two weeks of July,” says J.H.
“We have probably had the UK summer at the end of May for three days, Autumn may have started early this year, together with the November rains during the rest of July and August.”

17 thoughts on “Arctic Cold Plunge forecast UK and northwestern Europe

  1. Well, normally here in the West of Scotland we as usually around 3C cooler than the south of England roughly about 18 to 20C during the day dropping to between 11 to 13C over night in July.

    Today however the temperature gauge in the car was showing 13.5C at 15:30 dropping to 12C by 17:45. Unusual or what?

    • What you will find stranger is when the Met Office declare that the monthly average temperature is above their chosen average in complete contradiction of your observations.

  2. With frozen snot icicles hanging from his nasal hair Al Gore will still be whistling the Global Warming mantra through his frozen passages until the snow covers his mouth hole and the blinkered idiot stops breathing…. We the people hereby accentuate the obvious fact that we appear to be heading into either a Little Ice Age, or a full blown one. Gawd help us either way!!! Better get ready to turn up the thermostat on that heated pool Mr Gore!!!

    • A little cooling that’s it, a bit deeper than Dalton, with another seven 140 year Solar Warm periods to follow, each separated by a cool period (MIA) like the one we are now in. Then the major Glaciation might well start, all it will need to start early is some idiot Dictator to Nuc a rival enemy state, such as Israel, or less likely, Yellowstone to clear its throat and take most of the US with it.
      Although, I have been carping on about cooling at High Latitudes and at High Altitudes, it would seem that the Southern Hemisphere winter is far worse than last year, it has started early, and is far more severe, and in doing so, the death toll, has started to pick up and be reported.
      The loss of so many young lives in South America is very regrettable and my condolences to those who has lost loved ones, but if you asked the Green Anarchists for a similar expression of regret and of condolence, they would simply say, “so what, another 6.5 billion to go”. These are the bitter fruits of the scientific fraud which has taken place over the last 40 years; it will take many more deaths before this AGW madness is shown for what it is.

  3. Same here in south-central Ireland. Here are a few notable temperatures…

    Chilly Overnight Lows:
    July 3rd… 6.1c Grass… 4.6c
    July 2nd… 6.4c Grass… 2.9c

    Chilly Daytime Maxes:
    June 16th… 14.9c
    June 17th… 15.0c
    June 25th… 15.9c
    June 26th… 15.6c
    June 30th… 15.0c
    July 1st… 15.0c

    • The maximum temperature at my location on the outskirts of Belfast yesterday was around 12C. Drier and brighter weather today has pushed the temperature up to 16C – still below average for July.

  4. Despite a wetter and duller June than normal here in N. Ireland the mean temperature was 1.4C above normal. July, so far, has been unspectacular.

    • I was in beautiful Belfast in June – it was a lot hotter than anywhere in England. These things happen. Hope you took advantage of it!

    • This recession has been winding up since China put the brakes on last year, to restrain its growth to single digit levels.
      You can blame BEXIT as much as you like but:
      The next Club Med state is about to go Bankrupt due to German hide bound EU rule following, is Italy. One of the founding members of the Iron and Steel Community and now the EU, Italy has asked to be able to raise 35Billion Euros to bail out their banks, which are on life support. Germany has refused permission. This crash will make Greece look like a tea party.
      In five years the EU will be very much smaller than now, and exist of the remaining solvent Industrial Germanic nations, including Poland. The rest will be an economic wasteland reverting to their original currencies.
      The collapse of civilisations continues, as each civilisation peaks during its solar warm period, and then fails as the swallows fly south and the climate descends into the abyss of the MIA.
      The UK may well freeze in the coming winters, as our power systems fail. However, there is an upside, during the UK power strikes during the Seventies, and the Three Day working week, a lot more babies were produced when the telly opium for the masses wasn’t on.

  5. Weather is unusual in the American Pacific Northwest as well. Daytime temperatures are in the low 60’s with rain forecast for most of the week. Summer usually begins in Western Washington State at this time with temperatures in the 70’s and 80’s, bright sun and no rain.

  6. Well here in sunny Leeds, UK, we have had a cool summer, but not unpleasant. I have local daily temperature, rainfall and sunshine records going back to 1908 (I’m not that old though!) and I have done averages etc. My observation is that we have been running about 2 degrees centrigrade below average (and the average is lower than you might imagine). The other interesting thing is that I did detect a warming trend from the data, but the hottest days were in the 1930’s ! So – my hypotheses…

    Hypothesis 1. Is that if the recent averages were higher and yet the maximums lower then it may be cloud cover that is an issue. Less clouds mean that you can get more heat during the day but it radiates away faster at night. If we have more clouds now then the averages will be from a narrower temperature band. It’s just an idea…anyway I came across the work by Svensmark on the effect of cosmic rays and cloud formation and also the link between solar output and cosmic rays….

    Hypothesis 2. The Earths system has a lag in it – it took time to build up heat in the oceans and it will take time to dissipate. However that dissipation has been ongoing since the last few solar cycles when we had a huge solar maximum

    Hypothesis 3. The Earth depends on Sol for its climate. The thing is, that if you read anything from a climate scientist they will say that the effect of the sun on our climate is either negligible or non existent.

    However, as other posters have said in the past…if we go into cooling the AGW climatoligists will claim that “…warming is wot made it cold…”. You cannot win.

    Are we going into a global cold snap? I guess we are going to find out the answer soon!

    • The Industrial Solar Warm period is a game of two half’s, the first started just after 1906 and it lasted around 66 years, to the single cycle AMP event SC20, the second half of three solar cycle following SC20 are the modern part of the Solar Warm Period which ended with the start of this Solar Grand Minimum SC24. The 1930s cycles were much warmer than this latter period.
      Hypothesis 1: Grand Solar Minimums are cloudier, with the Jet stream holding cloud cover over a single location with associated heavy rain fall.
      Hypothesis 2: The Earths heat system has a lag in it correct! The changeover between a solar warm period and a solar minimum is around ten years – documented peer reviewed work on the European effects of the 600BP Minimum, the effects have repeated for each minimum since.
      Hypothesis 3 The Earth depends on Sol for its climate correct! What the AGW hang their fraud on is that TSI average doesn’t vary by more than 1% over the whole of the Solar Cycle, yes, during the recent observed solar warm period. What they don’t say is the EUV dose vary by more than 16% between the solar max and the solar minimum of each cycle, it is this radiation which drives the Jet Streams and varies the climate.
      TSI may well change significantly during Solar Grand Minimums; this is the first to be properly observed.
      Fact: the majority of memorable harsh winters in the UK have been at the bottom of the Solar Cycle, when the Sun has been blank for some time, or just after the point when the average of large spots dropped below 20 per month and the Jet Stream becomes much more meridional.

      • Thanks – Appreciate the feedback. All my (‘scientist”) friends think I am crazy to think that we are not going into an industry induced warming which means we will all have to emigrate to Antarctica and sea levels will rise 100 feet more. What we know is that things don’t happen in straight lines but in cycles.

        Most people assume what is going on today is going to carry on forever upwards. Nature is not like that. Things go up and down (as the financial services adverts always say) and we also know that things are really more complicated than they first seem. It is easy to be a reductionist (that is how we are trainined to think nowardays in this postmodern society) – either side of the debate. Either way we did not have 7.5 billion people on the planet to feel the effects of cooling or warming – so whatever happens cannot be pretty! It is interesting that the Chinese have been investing in desert areas (allegedly) – long term planning (gamble)?

  7. Quote:
    It is interesting that the Chinese have been investing in desert areas (allegedly) – long term planning (gamble)?
    The Chinese have long memories of the changing climate between hot and cold over 5.5 K years of memories. They were the first to observe sun spots and record them probable well before they invented gun powder.
    I don’t think it’s a gamble, more of a racing certency.
    They are also students of history, they already know of the climate effects to their desert areas when the Sun enters a blank spotless phase.
    Historically most of the world’s desert areas become temperate with regular rain fall as the glaciation becomes widespread above 40 degrees lat. During the last 10,000 year before the Interglacial started, North Africa and the Arabian Peninsula was savannah with flowing rivers and stocked with large African game from Elephant down wards. including stone age Man.

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