Arctic Ice Melt Claims Distorted And Inaccurate

It’s the Wind Stupid

“Ice conditions are changing; they always have and always will,” says long-time climatologist Dr. Tim Ball. “Much warmer conditions occurred often in the recent past, but current changes are more due to changing wind patterns than temperature. Claims otherwise are political climate science trying to defend failed political climate science.”

Here are excerpts from an article written by Dr Ball and published on just a few days ago.

“Recently I identified a counterattack trying to defend the failed anthropogenic global warming (AGW) hypothesis. Claims about Arctic ice melt this summer (2012) are another example. Data and analysis are wrong, but they need to scare a disinterested public.

NATICE Map for August 31, Red = 8/10 sea ice. Yellow = marginal ice zone.

I know about arctic sea ice from flying ice and anti-submarine patrols on Canada’s east coat for four years then five years search and rescue in the Arctic. I later worked with members of the Canadian Polar Shelf Project and researchers producing Hudson Bay ice reconstructions.

Claims of declining ice conditions use satellite records that produced results after 1980. Mark Serreze, Director of the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) publicly attacked “anti-science misinformers” and used this data to claim sea ice is at a record low of 4.1 million sq. km. Anthony Watts shows this was belied by another NSIDC “new and improved” measure of 4.7 million sq. km.

“The observational database for the Arctic is quite limited, with few long-term stations and a paucity of observations in general.”

NSIDC’s different results between models illustrate the problem. Other agencies get different estimates again. NOAA says the ice level is 5.1 million while NATICE interactive maps show over 6.1 million (diagram above).

Satellites are fooled by meltwater on top of the ice and vast areas of broken and slush ice (yellow). How would you define ice and its limits in this Bering Straits satellite image?

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007 (said), “Over the course of millions of years, the Arctic has experienced climatic conditions that have ranged from one extreme to another.”

“Within the last 10,000 years several periods were warmer than today. Longest was the Holocene Optimum between 8000 and 5000 years ago (ya); the Minoan Warm Period 3400 ya; the Roman Warm Period 2400 ya; the Medieval Warm Period 1000 ya and most recently the 1930s warm period.”

Temperature isn’t the main cause of current changes in Arctic ice. Wind pattern changes at the Polar Front (diagram) explain changing ice conditions that make ice extent more difficult to determine.

“Arctic sea ice waxes and wanes throughout the year, and conditions fluctuate each season and year—including conditions in the Bering Sea. Although sea ice extent in mid-January 2012 was not at a record high, it was the highest ice extent in several years, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center.”

The amount of floating ice in the Bering Sea reached an all-time record high at one point this year

A plot of Bering Sea ice in March shows the pattern and the record level in 2012. As one media outlet reported,

“The amount of floating ice in the Arctic’s Bering Sea – which had long been expected to retreat disastrously by climate-Cassandra organisations such as Greenpeace – reached all-time record high levels last month, according to US researchers monitoring the area using satellites.”

“It’s no secret that the South Pole in Antarctica is one of the coldest places on Earth. But this year it got really cold faster than ever, breaking a 30-year-old record for the earliest the temperature has dropped below minus 100 degrees Fahrenheit (minus 73.3 degrees Celsius).”

“The record comes less than four months after an altogether different mark was set at the South Pole during the austral summer. On Christmas Day, the temperature officially hit 9.9F (minus 12.3C) at about 3:50 p.m., to become the warmest day ever at the South Pole.”

Ice conditions are changing; they always have and always will. Much warmer conditions occurred often in the recent past, but current changes are more due to changing wind patterns than temperature. Claims otherwise are political climate science trying to defend failed political climate science.

See entire article: 99s-the-wind-stupid.html

Thanks to Craig Adkins for this link

29 thoughts on “Arctic Ice Melt Claims Distorted And Inaccurate

  1. AGW proponents hate Dr. Ball. Mention his name to them and they will snort with derision and do everything in their power to discredit him. To bad for them that his science has the weight of truth behind it.

    • Sounds like what they do to Rush whenever he talks about downsizing the government.

      There are so many accusations against him that have no merit whatsoever.

      Hell they won’t even let him participate in the NBL Football team because he doesn’t agree with their views.

    • They only thing I DON’T like about Rush is he bashes ALL politicians and sometimes makes a joke out of himself.

      Other then that he does stand for the Constitution down to the letters.

    • The PNW is looking at breaking a record for consective (I suck at spelling) days of no rain if we go thru Monday without a drop.

      There is a weak cold front coming thru Monday that may give showers but if it dries out we will beat some records.

      One thing different this half of the summer is the cold fronts have all been dry leading to chilly nights.

    • This pattern reminds me of May where we had dry cold fronts with alternating warm spells including a record high at the end of May.

  2. Warm water freezes more quickly and fully than does cold water. You can run a simple experiment in your own freezer box. Take two cup. Fill cup A with hot water and fill the other cup B with cold water. Put both into the freezer box. See which one will freeze first. One would believe that the cold water in cup B would be the first to freeze. However as you will see the warm water in cup A will be the first to freeze. Do not just take my word on this. Run the experiment yourself. See with your own eyes how reality often works completely different to our dearly held preconceptions.

    Another misconception which the politician Al Gore fell into was in that he believed that levels of atmospheric CO2 were driving the temperatures. Actually it is the temperature that drives the level of atmospheric CO2. As the air gets warmer it is able to hold greater amount of moisture and CO2. As the air cools down the moisture and CO2 rains out. Also CO2 is a heavy gas such that it goes down into the water and into the ground. The idea that CO2 is up in the sky is simply not true. The amount of CO2 in the atmosphere is absolutely far too little. Without CO2 all plant life on Earth will die of suffocation. The lower atmosphere is mostly composed of four parts Nitrogen with one part Oxygen. Above the Nitrogen layer there is the Hydrogen layer bordering on space.

    Another interesting thing to understand is that the freeze we see at the polar regions is induced by electric forces. Much the same reason as to why it is cold inside your refrigerator. The greater the electronic compression in the equator then the greater the electronic decompression in the polar regions. This means that as the Sun shines stronger therefore that flux of extra energy will thus cause the polar regions to freeze even more strongly. Literally stronger the energy from the Sun then the greater the freeze will be in the polar regions.

    • So how does one explain the fact that the Arctic was once home to millions of dinosaurs? Was the Sun and thereby the Earth colder during the Great Dinosaur Age?

    • Don’t forget Al Gore invented the internet despite the ability to talk to other computers existing in the early 70s.

      Shhh shhh don’t tell anyone. (wink)

    • Nice comment. I don’t understand what you mean by “electronic compression” at the equator and the poles. I sense some EU (electric universe) ideas there, is that correct?
      The correct understanding of the magnetic fields of the Sun and Earth are central for the understanding of the climate because these fields drive all those electrically charged particles from solar radiation, and even neutrons to some extent due to the intrinsic spin, and also affect the formation of clouds on Earth due to the high polarization of the H2O molecule. Lower fields are closer to Earth’s surface and would induce the formation of clouds at lower heights, as we’re observing now.
      But one thing I don’t agree entirely in what you said is

      “as the Sun shines stronger therefore that flux of extra energy will thus cause the polar regions to freeze even more strongly”

      because stronger radiation also brings more energy to Earth and this energy will probably be stored, at least in part, in the form of heat.
      Vice versa with lower radiation.
      I believe that in the long run, the amount of radiation from the Sun is what really drives the climate, leading to colder or warmer periods. Including the Ice Ages, which I still don’t understand how such long periods of cold climate are even possible. I don’t think the Milankovitch can explain it satisfactorily.

      That’s why I’m expecting colder climate from now on, as the cycle C24 passes its maximum and oceans get colder, I believe it’s inevitable.

  3. Of course the lying “warming” proponents will tell whatever lies it takes. Its been a lie from day 1. In the western Arctic, supply deliveries to Prudhoe Bay oil fields were delayed this summer by arctic sea ice. Unfortunately the socialist media publishes the lies without checking sources or credibility.

  4. You know between going through huricane Isaac down here in New Orleans and hereing about a disasterous volcano and the sun not making many sunspots when it should be popping I think we are in short term trouble with a capital T…

  5. C. Peter Davis asks how dinosaurs could live on Antarctica. The answer is that the landmass we call Antarctica was not at the south pole in that epoch.

  6. I have also tried to store large hailstones in the freezer when in Colorado and in no time at all, the hailstones diminish in size. They evaporate even in the freezing environment. So evaporation is a factor as well in a very cold environment because the air is very dry.

  7. Neil Love
    Re: hot water freezing faster than cold (Mpemba effect). It is true in some cases like putting hot water in a fridge, but I don’t think it would make any difference in sea ice.

    The Royal Society of Chemistry had a completion this summer to try to find an answer:

    David Johnson
    What you are referring to is called sublimation. It is the transformation directly from the solid phase to the gaseous phase without passing through an intermediate liquid phase. You see it in cold climates where it is well below zero but the snow disappears. I was told that sea ice starts to sublimate at -23C.

    There is a new paper out questioning that the effect of greenhouse gases on temperature. By his math the entire warming due to the greenhouse effect is only around 10°C, not the more impressive 33°C that is usually claimed. It means the greenhouse effect is probably less important than implied.

    Do greenhouse gases warm the planet by 33°C? Jinan Cao checks the numbers.

  8. The story of the record ice melt in the arctic has been a big news item on the BBC today. It was pointed out that this may lead to a southward plunge in the the offshoot of the Gulf Stream – the North Atlantic Drift. This supposedly will lead to wetter summers over the British Isles. Wet summers in this part of the world are almost always cooler than the long-term average. My degree is in Geography, not meteorology, but surely if this southward plunge of this warming current happened, then much of Northern Europe would be prone to bitterly cold winters.

  9. Ironically, both the Warmist camp and the Coolist camps are both predicting a southward shift of the Jet Stream and weather changes that will back up their belief systems. Perhaps they will both be wrong, but will they ‘out-deny’each other if they are?

  10. It really doesn’t matter what they say about the sea ice.
    That changes from year to year anyway and is subject to currents, wind, and even arctic storms like the last one we just experienced. All that does is shift the ice around from one location to another – but it rarely gets rid of it. Even if it did, it comes right back when temperatures plummet once again in the fall and winter. During the last ice age, the arctic ice cap itself was not much thicker than it is today – it’s the mountain glaciers that grew and then covered much of North America and Europe. The ice didn’t come from the arctic directly. There is a chart that depicts that very clearly in “Not by Fire but By Ice” – showing the difference in ice extent and thickness in the arctic between the last ice age and today. Not much difference there.
    So it doesn’t matter how they scream about the sea ice every year. That’s just used as a weapon by the warmists and others who want to use sea ice as a political agenda. And because this is an election year, I’m not surprised by their desperation. I have noticed in past years whenever you have the left controlling the Whitehouse in any given year, they make up even more stories than usual during the summer leading up to that election about the climate issue – such as a hot month in summer – or an arctic storm which shifts ice around in August – or even a strong hurricane, which they use to scream about global warming…and blah blah and blah. DO NOT FALL FOR ANY OF IT AT ANY TIME. They are simply nothing more than desperate since nobody is buying their lies anymore. Kill your television. The ice age is right on track.

  11. We are too close to the problem and do not see the real situation. Examination of ice records over this, last or any single recent year is argument by instance and therefor invalid. Don’t tell me about daily blips in the weather, the stock market, the tides or any other dynamic system. Better prediction is found in review of long-term data. I’m sure a better guess as to arctic ice patterns might be made in thirty to fifty years. I’m hoping for an ice age but realize my unborn grand children will have a clearer view of reality.

  12. PrisonPlanet is a conspiracy theorist website, and the recent claims by that scientist whose last name I cannot spell, normally works against the sceptics rather than help them. While I am grateful for this information by a real climatologist, I am not so sure of the site it was originally hosted on.

  13. Thank you Robert for bringing a little sanity into this discussion!
    I really had the impression that sooner or later the true, correct explanation about the sea-ice would come out.
    I’m greatly relieved to read a few words that really make sense, for a change, about the Arctic sea ice.
    Thank you, I’ll post a longer comment later.

  14. As a resident of the arctic, I can attest to the fact that the sea ice has declined significantly. Those trying to say otherwise above are either misinformed or just enjoy spreading misinformation.

    I spent an hour with one of the leading climatologists for Big Oil (you know, the ones that have a vested interest in saying everything is “Ok”). He told me flat out that they are extremely concerned with what is happening up here. The oil companies are concerned that if the environment continues to melt at such a dramatic pace, they will not be able to suck the black gold out of the ocean floor.

    Take it for what its worth…

Comments are closed.