Arctic summer already over?

No global warming in the Arctic.

“This is unusual,” says reader J.H. Walker. “Is the NH melt season finishing?”

This graph from the Danish Meteorlogical Institute shows Arctic temperatures.

The horizontal blue line marks the freezing point. (32F, or 0C).

The green line shows the mean temperature from 1958 to 2002.

The red line shows where we are today, 16 July 2018.

Yes, it was hotter than average during the first part of the year. However, if the present trend keeps on, Arctic temperature will drop below the freezing mark much earlier than usual.

Thanks to J.H. Walker for this link

24 thoughts on “Arctic summer already over?”

  1. The temperatures are still within the range of what may be expected at this time of the year in the high arctic above 80 degrees north. A look at previous years results would indicate that this is so.

  2. It is the early and late parts of that graph that show big changes. You can click year by year and see that the summer highs are always close to the green line.

    If (yes big if) it continues and goes below freezing that would be news!

    • In part you are correct. The portion of the warm Overturning Current in the North Atlantic called the Gulf Stream keeps a portion of the Arctic Ocean ice free for much of the year, particularly when there is a blocking high over Scandinavia.
      2009 ice extent
      When I say warm I’m talking about SSTs between 3C and 6C dependent on time of year.
      The other point is Scandinavia isn’t some Dark Age region of the world, their approach to true climate science and in particular a cold climate is far better than many American university’s. They live with winter ice, whereas America lives with its new anti CO2 climate religion.
      Most of Europe has had thermometers and weather stations covering much of the Arctic coastal regions of Europe which covered the Gulf stream ice free area since the start of Gleissberg Period during the late 1800s.

  3. Interestingly, even though the first part of the graph is above the chosen baseline, it is below the same section for the past few years, as the temperatures for the summers have been below the baseline. Recognize that the baseline is not necessarily the true “average temperature” across the entire year, just those years chosen to be the baseline. Sort of like the “hottest year ever” chosen to be based solely in the “satellite years” since that conveniently leaves out the, well, hottest years ever.

    It is totally anal to pretend the “recorded history” of temperatures in the Arctic and Antarctic have any significance beyond an interesting reference point. We just haven’t been there that many years with quality thermometers to even pretend our records have meaning.

  4. Warmer than usual, but still below freezing, means very little if it’s coupled with a cooler and shorter summer. You’re still looking at more ice coverage, more albedo, and less shipping.

  5. The way the green line got to be the mean is by having some years that were above it & some that were below it.

    Good points, Tom O.

    • The key point is the blue line, below no melting, way above lots of melting, hovering below trend not so much melting and longer lasting ice to add to next years ice expanse.

      However this is trend construction from the warmest portion of the 172 year solar cycle 1958 to 2008, since 2008 cooling has started.

  6. When was the last time you saw floating ice on the barrow AK web cam? Its middle of July and you see more than water but ice floating on on top of the water…mmmmm Gonna be a cold winter ahead for someone and no sunspots too…

  7. This summer something unusual is confirmed to continue : South West Europe & Morocco getting cool summer instead of the usual scorching one. And Scandinavia getting scorching summer instead of cool one. This year it is amazingly Sweden which is fighting widespread fires instead of Portugal usually. Portuguese medias are all pointing this unexpected weather.

  8. Latent energy from melting ice will keep the temperature near freezing as long as there is ice. It takes a ton of heat energy to melt ice, so the temperature won’t go above 1C until there is no ice on a consistent basis. That’s just basic thermodynamics and that’s why alarmists are just completely wrong with the AGW theory. The arctic and Antarctic winters have been warmer because of the presence of water vapor. This is evident in the record snows that have fallen in various places in recent years. The meridonial jet stream that the grand solar minimum has brought water vapor up from the tropics and dumped it into the polar regions. Increased galactic cosmic rays equals more water vapor as well. Heating from underwater volcanoes erupting are causing warmer water temperatures which also leads to more water vapor. So until the albedo effect of ice not melting in the polar regions and the albedo effect of the cloud cover in the region is greater than the influx of water vapor we will continue to see this pattern of warm winters and cool polar summers.

    • What really interesting is the data records shows Solar Minimum Jet stream activity for example 2010 two years before end of cycle of SC23 and cold winter, yet 1976 in the same cycle position hot summer, but that was a 40 year Summer, 2018 has reached the same levels of drought but not yet heat.
      Low EUV coupled with large Coronial Holes during SOlar Minimum has a massive impact on the earths climate, and also supports the observation that The UK only gets harsh winters and very hot Summers during the minimum period

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