Baseless hype from a gaggle of wannabes

Baseless hype from a gaggle of wannabes

“What’s all this about a Cold Autumn & Winter?”

“It’s baseless hype from a gaggle of wannabes,” says Piers Corbyn of Weather Action.

The Daily Express 20 Sept and various media scream “Experts predict a cold Autumn & Winter” – based on the meanderings of a gaggle of would-be forecasters, none of whom have an independent track record of significant long-range success – Exacta Weather (experts in promoting cold-weather tyres), NetWeather, Weather Services International and Positive Weather Solutions (the ‘experts’ who promised a ‘hottest summer ever’).

“Their forecast of a cold & dry October will fail,” says Piers. “It will be generally WET & MILD, with significant divisions across the UK and two dangerous storm periods at known dates in our forecast.”

Thanks to Nick for this link

Now let’s see who got this right.

41 thoughts on “Baseless hype from a gaggle of wannabes

  1. Well, I read the rant at the link, but have to be honest – I saw nowhere where Mr. Corbyn did anything but promote his pay for service. It’s easy to say that in my July forecast I accurately predicted this winters weather, especially since no one that didn’t pay for it read it. Let him put his “word salad” where his mouth is and put up HIS prediction for the coming months. After all, I have read his claims to be able to predict many months in advance, just never saw any of them to prove he is better then the people he’s knocking.

    • Tom, it would be great if Piers could at least give us, for free, an outline of how he sees the coming winter in the UK. Being retired I don’t see a need to pay for his forecasts. It may even increase the number of customers who wish to subscribe.

  2. Agree Tom, he doesn’t give you anything unless you pay for it. Even when you do it is often way off the mark. No more specific than the others. At least he stopped wittering on about red alerts for earthquakes and volcanos going off every time there was a solar flare.

  3. Peirs Corbyn had a long record for making baseless statements about himself and his forecasts.
    Just last winter he claimed that “it will be the coldest winter in a thousand years in the UK”. Result? It was warmer than the previous one.
    In late December 2010 he forecast “two dangerous winter storms in the North East United States, two dangerous winter storms with heavy snow in northwest Europe and the UK/Ireland and a heatwave in Queensland, Australia with temps reaching 38C” all in the last two weeks of December.
    Result? – One major winter storm in NE US (not much of a forecast, it will snow in New England around Christmas).
    Piers Corbyn is a charlatan and his forecasts are worthless dirvel, no better than you daily horoscope is at planning your life.

  4. This is a quote from March 22nf this year.


    “The weather events are expected in two waves ~23/24th and ~26/27th and extreme earthquake events risk is significantly enhanced all through this period 23-27th but probably more enhanced later with high risk continuing a day or so after 27th.

    “The long range predicted weather events in the double period 23-27th March include:

    – Snow deluges / cold blasts in N/ NE Britain & NW Europe

    – USA A double whammy of major snow & blizzards (esp 25-27th) Great Lakes & West thereof; Tornadoes in South

    – Australia Tropical Cyclone formation likely East of Queensland and Tornado possible New Zealand (North Island) prob 23/24th. Tornado formation risk is high in Bangladesh 26/27th

    How many of these dire predictions actually occured? Zero!

    So Piers “Baseless hype from a gaggle of wannabes …. ” – takes one to know one, eh?

  5. I live in Vancouver, Washington. The forecast for the next two days is a 62 High. 13 Degrees F below average. It will be snowing on Mt Hood at least 6 Weeks earlier than normal. The freezing level dropped to 5500 Feet and Snow fell on Mt. Rainier and Mt Adams earlier this month. Mt Hood did not receive snow because the moisture remained north.

    Many roads in the Cascades both north and south were not opened at all from last years snow. The forecast states that this winter will be colder with more snow than last year. Many roads will not be opened until this Ice Age runs its course.

    It is curious that early in September that Freeze warnings were issued east of the Cascades from
    the Columbia River to the Northern California Border and not in Washington State.

    One of the resorts affected is called Sunriver. It is best to rename it Iceriver.

    When the North Cascades become much colder which will happen starting tomorrow with no temperatures above 65 for the next ten days. This will be the beginning of a hell-of-winter. I don’t mind. I love the cold.

    Anyone who says we are having Global Warming is an idiot who ignores the data. Watch out Al Gore, don’t look back there is a Glacier Chasing you.

    Question: How many Al Gores Does it take to change a light bulb.

    (1) to hold the bulb.

    (4) to turn the ladder.

  6. Well, Corbyn is controversial but I do keep an eye on him. Now and then he has interesting inputs.

    This Winter? I predict it will mostly be like last year’s. I would be amazed when it were ‘mild’, but levels of precipitations may rise (la Niña is on).
    Furthermore I predict that tomorrow and the days thereafter the Sun will rise in the East and set in the West. Bet you can’t beat me on that one!

  7. Hi guys

    If you keep following Piers comments pages at and his twitter page at!/Piers_Corbyn you will often find FREE warnings of severe weather a few days ahead. (Free is my favourite price!) The earthquake and volcano warnings are only at the experimental stage and have not been particularly successful so far.

    Mikizo, last winter was MUCH colder than the previous winter in the part of the UK where I live – and the previous winter was pretty damn cold! Piers forecasts for hurricanes Irene and Katia were both given far in advance and were more accurate about severity and track than other forecasts issued a few days ahead. Piers only claims 85% accuracy (so expect 70%). So it is fairly easy to find errors. The point is that overall his forecasts are more accurate and more useful than most (possibly all) others. Witness the many farmers who have posted testimonials about how his largely accurate forecasts have helped them with harvesting crops at the time that maximises yields without risking loss through unexpected bad weather. And the long distance sailors who use his forecasts for planning long trips with greater success and safety.

    I’m sure a farmer who lost their crop because of unreliable forecasts would soon let everyone know. Perhaps a drowned sailor is less likely to complain! Either way, the endorsements are very positive.

    I thought Queensland had the tropical cyclone forecast by Piers. Are you sure you are using this years forecasts? Those listed in his archive at and YouTube clips at are from 2009/10.

    Piers results have been independently audited – check that out here:

    Please note: Piers says on his forum that he has not yet released a forecast for this winter – he is only saying that October will be relatively mild and wet in the UK.

    If anyone knows of a more reliable forecast please let us all know. We all need to prepare for this winter.

    Best wishes, Nick

  8. I would be disinclined to believe Piers Corbyn who has a long track record of inaccurate long-range forecasts… Madden is MUCH better!

  9. I think alot of science is not proven. I think Piers has a theory that it’s the sun and the space ecosystem that controls climate. I enjoy his views. I also think he is right. I dont expect him to get everything right.

  10. With all the stuff with El Nino/La Nina, PDO and NAO, there is some skill with long range forecasting when there used to be very little. Trying to hit specific storms on specific days is probably just pot luck.

  11. Nick
    Winter on 2010/2011 was warmer on average than 2009/2010, even after the UK endured its coldest single month in decades (Dec 2010).
    There was no cyclone in Queensland in late March, there was one weeks earlier.
    The “auditor” appears to be another “weather service” subsidiary of an Insurance Adjusting firm ….
    Would you choose to use a life saving drug based on a web testimonial by “S”? Buy a car or a home based on a web testimonial by “S”? If so, Corbyn’s your guy.

  12. Miziko

    I think it’s untrue to say that Piers Corbyn’s forecasts are all drivel.

    The spring here in the UK was extremely dry and at the time, every newspaper was predicting a drought and/or a barbecue summer.

    I bought a Corbyn forecast which predicted heavy rain in time for Wimbledon which duly arrived. His forecast that the summer would in no way be a barbecue summer has proven accurate.

    He correctly predicted the extremely cold December last year but was incorrect in how much longer it would last. ‘The coldest winter for 1000 years’ means Dec-Feb. Whilst it wasn’t that, it was still pretty darn cold by British standards. And if you were a councillor deciding whether to stock up on grit for the winter or not, the forecast months ahead was prescient.

    What’s important for Dr Corbyn is to continue to upgrade, modify and optimise his methods. He should, if he is honest, be able to review many years of forecasts now and start to identify where he does especially well and where he does less well. That should hopefully give him clues as to how to upgrade.

    I had an exchange of views with him by email 18 months ago where I mentioned the role of the moon in weather in various geographies and it is notable that his methods now include lunar influences. I have no idea whether my email stimulated his thoughts, but what’s important is that if this improves his forecasts, then sharing experiences can lead to better forecasting. What a crime, eh?

    My gut feeling for the winter is that it will be quite hard without being the coldest in a millennium.

  13. Hi Mikizo

    No, no and thrice no! I would not depend on a couple of testimonials from S before doing any of the things you suggest. I would do extensive research – including following the discussions such as the one at I would base my decision on the weight of evidence (including the table at ) – not just a few examples. I – like you – have just given a few examples here. I’d encourage everyone to do their own research and decide for themselves.

    For those who say Piers makes you pay for EVERYTHING, he’s just given information for FREE stating that in terms of extreme events there’s no point ordering his UK October forecast early to get the rest of September forecast free because the only extreme event forecast for the UK for September is “a storm 30th Sept/1st Oct in detail (esp Nth) in the forecast.”

    By the way, I agree with those who are unhappy about Piers attacks on other forecasters. Perhaps some frustration showing, and I believe he does feel others are using his forecasts to embroider their own. But at least he backs his attacks with evidence. Ask him to justify specific points if you don’t believe me – there’s a lot of that going on in the discussions on his site.

    For those that like FREE advice: in the present economic climate I guess many people are, like me, in debt. There is now a FREE website which gives FREE advice on how to get out of debt FREE – i.e. without paying another penny! Once you have eliminated your debts you can (if you wish) donate to and Ice Age Now, and even buy Pier’s forecasts if you think they are worth it. has details about using their methods in the UK, USA, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Republic of Ireland and South Africa. I’m sure they’ll add other countries in due course.

    I have no connection with any of the websites I’ve mentioned, including – I am merely using their advice to get a millstone from around my neck, and feel they can help others do the same. And for those that question the morality of dealing with banks the way they deal with you, there’s plenty of justification of this method on their site. Again, do your own research.

    Best wishes, Nick

  14. Joe Bastardi is my favourite weather predictor. He is now with but for a couple of years until June this year he gave regular forecasts for Britain and Europe and he was pretty well right all the time. I gather that he is still saying that it will be a cold winter in the northern hemisphere so I’ll stick with him…

  15. Just a quick note on “Winter” tyres: A lot of people seem to think they are only useful in snow. In fact, the special rubber compound used means they are MUCH safer on wet roads (and even dry ones) at any temperature below 7 degrees C (45 degrees F). So it makes sense to fit them even in a “normal” winter. There is effectively no extra cost (just a little forward investment) because your “summer” tyres will last longer. It’s a good idea to choose a slightly narrower tyre – say a 175 instead of a 195 (keep within the limits set out in the car handbook). Narrower tyres give better grip in both rain and snow. And if you shop around some of the best winter tyres are reasonably priced. gives independent ratings. In the USA, gives good consumer feedback comparisons, although only for the tires (USA spelling!) they stock.

    Hope this helps. Best wishes, Nick

    • For anyone who has had the fun experience of uncontrollably sliding down a step hill in a car in the middle of winter (snow & ice on the road) the change to “cold weather tyres” can bring much needed relief from those heart stopping moments.

      I have been reading James Madden’s blog

      long before he started with and in my opinion he has been right more times than he has been wrong.

      Either way i had my new set of “cold weather tyres” in my garage since the spring ready for the weather to turn.

    • Hi,

      I think you have make a good point here, must peeople dont understand the principles of cold weather tires, espically here in the UK and Ireland. A culture change is called for. However one point to note, the cost of change your tires from summer to winter and visa versa can be up 100 euro each time!

  16. Farmers in Australia pay big bucks for long range weather casters who use similar techniques as Piers Corbyn (Although nowhere near as radical).
    The Australian long range forecasters use a combination of historical weather cycles and solar cycles including sunspots.

    (Many also use water diviners to site boreholes).

    My cousin – a sheep farmer – pays for the long range forecasters models. He says overall historically, that they are more accurate than the official meteorological dept.

    One of the problems with Piers is that he looks like your archetypical mad scientist. The warminists love to point him out as the typical climate change skeptical scientist.

  17. Piers said flooding in southwest NSW, while it didnt seem possible, he was perfectly correct, he also warned Before the cyclone hit qld,I also am on a pension and wish I could pay for his reports, I live rural farm and even from the UK Id believe Piers before our local BoM who fudge past data.
    This weeks classic! HUGE winds, our local forecasters still hadnt even got their asses into gear, while the winds were felling trees and lifting roofs, so all up Piers is often much better. he at least offers a chance to be prepared, more than the folks who “work”? or dont.. Here.

  18. Piers has been more accurate than most
    he predicted the east Us snow deluges
    he said the Uk would get a seond cold blast but he then accpeted it was furtehr east than he thought
    he is n ot 10o0 percent right but who in weather is?

  19. If Piers is so fantastic, why does he not put his forecasts out in the public domain? I take Piers with a large pinch of salt. He is quick to put down others. If you look at his website and his posts, Piers is all about Piers and trying to get people to subscribe (at a ridiculous rate) to his forecasts. He has little to say PUBLICLY about weather.

    • I have to say the price of Piers’ forecasts is pretty darn cheap. If I were his BizDev manager I’d be telling him to raise them………

      He is not a charity. He runs a business.

      Do you work for free, mate?

  20. Wet and mild is Bullshit. I live in Vancouver, Washington. The Pacific Northwest will be wet and cold. It is snowing now on Mt Rainier, Mt. Adams, in Washington and on Mt. Hood in Oregon now.
    At least a month and a half earlier than normal.

    Great Britain is in a Higher Northern Latitude then we are. The Ice Age began last year since much of the snow still remains in the Cascades.

    • well you sound worried. I dont think that will help!I think man is just a giant ant farm and it’s getting stirred up. Problem with people is we are grasshoppers that turn to locust under stress, It’s the locust I fear!

  21. Gordon we tr and mildIn the uk
    since when has lattitude affected the UK?
    its gets wet and mild from the gulf stream so un less that stops it will never be as cold as Canada.
    I think we are entering an ice age but I do n ot think it will happen as quickly as switching a light switch

  22. My guess for the UK is that snow will start later this year than last(mid December) apart from a few flurries in the North. However we will have a colder January and February this year with snow on the ground 75% of the time in the North and 30% of this time in the South and a late spring of course.

  23. Hi everyone!

    Great discussion.

    Just to clarify, as I understand it Piers Corbyn says OCTOBER in the UK will be WET and MILD. See discussion at

    He has not made any public comment on the WINTER.

    He said in 2010 (or maybe 2009) that we are starting on an approximately 20 year period of very cold winters. Last week he stated that there could be mild winters within that period. But that neither of his statements imply what he thinks this winter will be like. Hope that clears things up.

    Obviously 20 years of mostly cold winters could lead to greatly increased snow cover, which would lead to increased reflection of the sun’s heat, and more cooling, so more snow cover… – sounds like it could be the start of an ice age.

    Either way, we should all follow Robert’s advice and ensure we have large stocks of food.

    Best wishes, Nick

  24. Piers track record isn’t so great, glossing over the failers and shouting about the successes. He is completely about him and his own self promotion, trying literally force people to subscribe to his service. I did subscribe once and was so unimpressed I will never do so again. Listen to and follow more generous and genuinely sharing other people, such as Joe Bastardi and others. They are much much better.

    • Hi Patrick,

      I agree very much so with your comment, he gets a few major ones right and advertises it very well. Looking at the current global situation I think we can expect another cold winter. However, we will see how it pans out, the weather can change very rapidly, there’s no saying any of the major volcanoes could erupt now! or the sun burst into activate! A prediction is only based on the information we have at the time and must be weighted accordingly.


    • Hi Patrick

      Thanks for the heads-up on Joe Bastardi. Several other posts say he’s good.

      Can you please post a bit more detail on your poor experience with Piers forecasts?
      When were you subscribed? And for what area (country, state, etc.) did you find his forecasts poor?

      I’m hoping his continual refinement of his methods gives a better track record for the areas I’m interested in. I’d be very interested to hear detail of your experiences.

      Many thanks and best wishes, Nick

  25. Graffiti recorded in the 1970’s: “Religion is man’s attempt to communicate with the weather!”

    Seems we’re still trying!

  26. Hope you don’t mind if I introduce a manmade technology into the climate discussion,but the HAARP influence is never taken into account in present weatherconditions, this really existing dangerous Tesla technology able among others to influence the direction of Jetstream in the higher atmosphere, which helps to determine the type of climate in a given region.
    I suspect various governments in the world make use of this stealth technology to favour their own climate at the expense of others.
    So I wonder whether the strange Jetstream deviation last winter, bypassing Europe, instead of crossing Europe like it always did, causing lots of cold and droughtlike conditions for months on end in Europe in the beginning of this year, was brought about by HAARP manipulation by some outside agent. Difficult to prove, I know, nevertheless I wonder if such manipulations are actually perpetrated. Google HAARP for more info.

  27. Hi Patrick

    As you have not replied to my question in reply to your comment), thought I’d repost it as a separate comment, with additions.

    Thanks for the heads-up on Joe Bastardi. Several other posts say he’s good. Though I note he is with now – they don’t seem to be giving anything away for free either. I’d appreciate a link to free Joe Bastardi forecasts for this winter in the UK, France and Spain if anybody knows of one.

    Can you please post a bit more detail on your poor experience with Piers forecasts?
    When were you subscribed? And for what area (country, state, etc.) did you find his forecasts poor? As you doubtless know Piers is constantly refining his method – as Rhys Jagger has posted under another topic on this forum, after discussion with him about lunar effects, Piers adapted his model which produced better results. Also I believe Piers is getting better at allowing for local effects in certain geographic areas. So it could be he’d do a better job for you now.

    I’m hoping his continual refinement of his methods gives a better track record for the areas I’m interested in. I’d be very interested to hear detail of your experiences.

    Many thanks and best wishes, Nick

  28. Karl;

    Last year the UK was wet and cold. Wind turbines froze in Scotland and no electricity was produced because the turbines were purchased in California. You have the Gulf Stream we have the Japanese Current. Latitude does make a difference. Perhaps not in a 1 to 1 ratio but the farther you go north the colder it gets.

    Don’t kid yourself the Ice Age can come very suddenly. A Mastodon was found in the Ice with green plants in its mouth. Core samples have been taken that show the Ice can increase dramatically from (1) year to the next. On the Russian Penisula north of Japan icebreakers were required to break (1) meter ice where no ice appeared the previous year. The Gulf of Finland had a big ice problem last year.

    I have hiked on Mt. Rainier and Mt. Hood. Hiking trails were closed until late August. They are usually open in late May.

    This Ice Age will occur very very quickly. If you look at maps of the last Ice Age you will see that Great Britain, Canada and New England and Seattle was covered with Ice. I live in Vancouver, Washington. Fortunately the Ice Remained in higher elevations than I live.

    In 1645 to 1715 we had a mini-ice age. This one may be far colder and more extensive.

  29. Hi Everyone. For those who say Piers never gives anything for FREE, here’s some information on what will happen the rest of October: For those that say his forecasts are inaccurate, are you sure you are reading them REALLY carefully, including the explanatory notes? As an example of how easy it is to misinterpret Pier’s forecast details, here’s a recent comment on “I received a raging email (some years ago) saying “You said it was going to pour with rain but here in Devon it was really dry (then a few lines of bile)” . I pointed out that our forecast video had said it would be generally wet in the north for that month and there would be important contrasts across UK and the detailed forecast listed Devon explicitly in the dry part.” Pier’s forecasts are very detailed – I find that an advantage, but they do require careful reading to fit all that detail together for you own location. Plus reading the qualifying notes to make sure your interpretation is realistic. Best wishes, Nick

Comments are closed.