Betting on a catastrophically cooling world

Betting on a catastrophically cooling world

The recent warming since the end of the Little Ice Age has been wholly beneficial when compared to the devastating impacts arising from the relatively minor cooling of the Little Ice Age.

Betting on a catastrophically cooling world

By Ed Hoskins

According to ice core records, the last millennium 1000AD – 2000AD has been the coldest millennium of our current Holocene interglacial. This point is more fully illustrated with ice core records on a millennial basis back to the Eemian period here:

Our current, warm, congenial Holocene interglacial, although cooler than the Eemian interglacial 120,000 years ago, has been the enabler of mankind’s civilisation for the last 10,000 years, spanning from mankind’s earliest farming to the most recent technologies.

Viewing the current Holocene interglacial on a millennial basis is rational. But sadly it seems that, driven by the need to continually support the Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming hypothesis / religion Climate alarmists irrationally examine the temperature record at too fine a scale, weather event by weather event, month by month, or year by year.

From the broader perspective, each of the notable high points in the current 11,000 year Holocene temperature record, (Holocene Climate Optimum – Minoan – Roman – Medieval – Modern), have been progressively colder than the previous high point.

The ice core records from Greenland for its first 7-8000 years, the early Holocene, shows, virtually flat temperatures, an average drop of only ~0.007 °C per millennium, including its early high point known as the “climate optimum”. But the more recent Holocene, since a “tipping point” at around 1000BC, 3000 years ago, has seen temperature fall at about 20 times that earlier rate at about 0.14 °C per millennium .

The Holocene interglacial is already 10 – 11,000 years old and just judging from the length of previous interglacial periods, the Holocene epoch should be drawing to its close: in this century, the next century or this millennium.

Nonetheless, the slight and truly beneficial warming at the end of the 20th century to a Modern high point has been transmuted by Climate alarmists into the “Great Man-made Global Warming Alarm”.

The recent warming since the end of the Little Ice Age has been wholly beneficial when compared to the devastating impacts arising from the relatively minor cooling of the Little Ice Age, which include:

• decolonisation of Greenland
• Black death
• French revolution promoted by crop failures and famine
• the failures of the Inca and Angkor Wat civilisations
• etc., etc.

As global temperatures, after a short spurt at the end of the last century, have already been showing stagnation or cooling over the last nineteen years or more, the world should now fear the real and detrimental effects of cooling, rather than being hysterical about limited, beneficial or probably now non-existent further warming.

Warmer times are times of success and prosperity for man-kind and for the biosphere. For example during the Roman warm period the climate was warmer and wetter so that the Northern Sahara was the breadbasket of the Roman empire.

But the coming end of the present Holocene interglacial will eventually again result in a mile high ice sheet over much of the Northern hemisphere. As the Holocene epoch is already about 11,000 years old, the reversion to a true ice age is becoming overdue.

That reversion to Ice Age conditions will be the real climate catastrophe.

With the present reducing Solar activity, significantly reduced temperatures, at least to the level of another Little Ice Age are predicted quite soon this century.

Whether the present impending cooling will really lead on to a new glacial ice age or not is still in question.

As an interested layman, I would say that the betting is more heavily weighted towards a catastrophically cooling world rather than one that will be overheating because of the comparatively minor CO2 emissions from mankind.

Holocene Context for Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming


43 thoughts on “Betting on a catastrophically cooling world”

  1. Yes his bet is correct about a catastrophically cooling world. That scenario is far more likely and almost certain.

  2. “But the coming end of the present Holocene interglacial will eventually again result in a mile high ice sheet over much of the Northern hemisphere”

    is that soon or are we talking in the next 500 years?

    and where should one move?

    • The trends in the data suggest over the ensuing centuries. This has been examined by a number of climate researchers.

      However, the 19th century supposition that the northern hemisphere was covered in a mile-thick ice cap is falsified by the excavation of semi-tropical flora and fauna at Mary’s Reservoir (Calgary) in Canada, where mammoth, camel, ox, and horse bones dated to 11KBCE have been found. There has been a lot of focus on ice ages by scientists, but the evidence only supports glacial ages. Ice accumulation of that magnitude requires sustained specific weather conditions for millennia, something we know does not happen. One of the problems with ice core dating is Antarctica is known to have been free of ice in recent geological times.

  3. If you believe in evolution, which I believe most readers do, humans evolved on a world that did not require clothing, or hair. Our ancestors lived in a warmer world.
    Go one step further. Whites are not adapted to any environment in our current world. We must have lived in a world that was much warmer, but still had low sunlight. I have read suggestions of a tropical Arctic with crocodiles, verdant forests etc. No such place exists on earth like that.

  4. Glacial seems slow and the news demands action and headlines. 33 days without sunspots won’t be riveting enough. Thanks for your informed work. The dolts seem ever closer to fleecing we taxpayers.

  5. With hedonistic adjustments, you can get data to favor whatever outcome you want. Call it smoothing, change in binning, change in graularity, window size, sampling, parsing[dropping data points outside of your pre determined boundaries] et al… what really surprises me is that with all that, there seems to still be the need to throw in a lognormal adder to the yearly sequencial data points/sets. LOL its rather comical, no really there is a lot of money to be made for the finacial feeing and taxonomy of real productive work thats being done here (which is the real meaing of carbon loading)…….

  6. Spaceweather.com has posted an update on the student project Earth to Sky Calculus and their monitoring of cosmic radiation in the upper atmosphere over California. As of July 2018 results show an 18% increase in cosmic rays since March 2015. This is a 5% increase since their last graph was published, with its last posted measurement in May 2017 of 13%.

  7. This is USA.We’ve got coal(WV,KY,OH),solar(southwest),oil(Alaska,gulf states,Dakotas),Nuclear, and natural gas.So long as EPA butt out of people’s business and/or Evil like Jerry Brown doesn’t run the country, we shall thrive through the coming ice age.Bigly.

    • Uh, I’m pretty sure the ice during the last ice age was as much as a kilometer deep, so I hope you have a really good snow blower.

  8. Just two remarks on this posting:

    1) GIPS2 data do not end 2000 but rather 1855; just look up how mutch central greenland temps went up since then.
    And Central Greenland Temps are NOT representing Norhtern Hemospere Temsp.

    2) Black death is NOT related to LIA since it was well before LIA.
    It might be waether/climate related but I think your argument with LIA is on the wrong track.

    Glacier records still tend to show signs of continued warming.

  9. ive bought snowberry, oregon grape and sea buckthorn seeds to try n get growing sos i have some healthy tough backup options if it gets as cold as i think it might, hope is theyll offer some winter/autumn fruits and also double as windbreaks n shelter for other plants

    • I went and looked at those plants and will try this winter to start a plan to raise them starting next year. Very nice plants for the coming cooling.

  10. Siberian records of cold – IA “Meteonovosti”

    Cold air, settled in Siberia, does not hurry to give way to heat.
    On the eve, the average daily air temperature was below the multi-year values ​​by 4-6, in some places and by 8 degrees.

    On the night of July 30 in Tobolsk (Tyumen region) the thermometer dropped to a record low of +6.5°C, thereby repeating the 1955 record. Last night, July 31, the absolute minimum temperature in Krasnoyarsk was blocked, the current one is +3.3°C, lower than the previous one by 1.6°C, which was observed in 1919.
    http://hmn.ru/index.php?index=1&ts=180731140324
    —————————
    –Climate change could cause suicide
    ‘Climate change can increase the number of suicides.’
    Russian site: http://www.meteo-tv.ru/news/Ekologiya/Izmenenie-klimata-mozhet-vyzvat-rost-samoubiystv/

    It could cause everything what you want!
    But they prefer emphasize only bad things.
    “It’s hilarious!!”

  11. Not only is this long-term climatic cycle centuries overdue, but geophysical records from the mid-Pliocene 3.60 million YBP attest that plate tectonic dispositions have driven serial 102-kiloyear Ice Ages interspersed with median 12,250-year remissions for geological eras long preceding hominid evolution.

    Though our author Edward Hoskins dates Holocene origins from c. 11,000 YBP, the end of the 1,500-year cometary/meteorite Younger Dryas “cold shock” (12,950 – 11,450 YPB), in reality Earth’s continental ice-sheets vanished about 14,400 YBP. Skewed by the Younger Dryas, we assert that ye Holocene Interglacial ended 668 years ago, beginning a 500-year Little Ice Age coincident with Kamchatka’s super-volcano Kambalny Eruption in AD 1350.

    Despite global temperatures’ subsequent 140-year rebound, c. 1890 – 2030, likely followed by a 70+ year Grand Solar Minimum chill-phase through c. AD 2100, odds are that Planet Earth from c. AD 2350 will experience glacial accumulations rendering 80% of continental landmasses uninhabitable for some 101 kiloyears.

  12. What is our bet, our plan? I totally agree with your prognosis. But what can we, should we be doing? Since at least a billion people live on the edge of starvation today in this warm epoch, it seems a sure bet that billions of people are about to die. It seems a sure bet that those about to die will resort to cannibalism, infanticide, abandoning or starving children (Hansel and Gretel). The great famine of 1315, in Europe, was too wet. Most here have been predicting too dry.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Famine_of_1315
    Here is a list of famines
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_famines
    It is a long list with frequent famines.
    So the people reading this site, Climatedepot, weatheraction, et. al., SHOULD be preparing, banding together, putting their actions and money where their mouths are. But are they?
    What’s our plan?

    • I agree and I wish there was an effort to make a village or something of like minded people

      Most people are zombies who follow whatever “authority” tells them anyway

    • V. Putin knows what is coming. His government has invested Billions in green houses and nuclear powered ice breakers.

      The US government will never prepare, Citizens will not be told until too late. We have not had an American leader since Kennedy (with all his obvious faults).

      The scale of the coming disaster is almost unimaginable. The vast majority of people on the planet will die from famine, cold, pestilence, war, and violent marauders.

      By the mid 2020s it will be apparent to all, as the first year without summer appears in the Chicago area, and the great lakes are frozen. The second year without summer will begin the panic.

      Get out of the cities, make a few friends you can count on, make some preparations, and get right with the Creator.

      Good luck to us all…….we will need it.

  13. expanded my planting of cold hardy nut and timber trees. experimenting with winter squash because of storage life. have added shutters to glassed areas and saved about 30% on last winter’s electric bill. I am going to research the items you mentioned.

  14. Temperatures have been steadily declining since the interglacial optimum 8,000 years ago. Alarmist want you to believe that temperatures are headed to new highs, but this is not the case, the post interglacial temperature maximum is showing a steady decline – especially on the 30-60 degree North latitude chart where almost the entire the industrial world resides. In the near future the entire northern hemisphere is going to re-glaciate. The obvious question is whether man’s industrial gas output is going to change or ameliorate the established down trend. The answer is not a chance because carbon dioxide and methane are trace gases having little effect on the overall thermodynamics of the planet.

    see this essay for full text and graphics:

    Northern Latitude Holocene Temperature Records Paint a Steady Cooling

    https://globalfreezingyourassoff.wordpress.com/2017/06/08/holocene-temperature-records-paint-a-steady-cooling/

  15. The way our civilization is organized now–largely urbanized, with “just in time” food deliveries. Now try to imagine the impact of a killing frost across the midwestern U.S. in mid-July.

  16. To the elites of this world, the gaia worshiping greens, humanity is the source of all evil. The thought of a global famine that leave billons dead is the fruition of all their dreams. It’s more than they could ever have hoped for. This is why our rulers piss down our backs and tell us it us raining. The elite want you dead. Don’t think for a minute that they are stupid. Al Gore and company have never believed in global warming. Not for a second. They knew that the cold was coming since the 1970’s , and have been preparing.
    They also understand that the masses are asses. Everytime I read some comment about how Al Gore won’t know what to say, or how he looks like a fool, and the reality is him and his buddies laugh and say “too late suckers” !! But we all underestimate our enemies, it’s the price of pride.

  17. I’m beginning to wonder when the reduced solar activity will have a more noticeable effect. The AOL website is abuzz with news of 90-degree temps in northern Norway, 350 miles above the Arctic circle, and much of Europe has been locked in hot dry weather this summer.

  18. There’s overwhelming evidences connecting periods of cold with Volcanic Eruptions.. There’s overwhelming evidences connecting sulfate aerosols with the diminishing of Solar irradiation due to their comparable size with the wavelength of Light.. There’s evidences of Cold periods with the forced migrations of peoples due to famine.. including the Huns, Vikings, Mongols.. and many more known migratory activities in other parts of the Globe.. There’s correlations between those forced migrations and volcanic activity.. THIS can be easily verified via the Matching of adequate data of Temps, Volcanic Activity and known Migration/Drought periods in Time… In Between the Cold-Warm period of the Dark Ages-Roman Warm Period, which corresponds to e.g. The Huns and the Little Ice Age-Medieval Cold Periods which connects with e.g., The Vikings/Etc.. was another significant period of Volcanism/Cold – which corresponds to e.g., The Mongol Expansion/Plague — and precedes the Medieval Warm Period.. The Beginnings of the Cold Period of that un-named Period extends Before one now well-known Major Volcano/Volcanism ( 1257 Samalas eruption ) of the 13th Century – which is given credit for the beginnings of the Mongol Expansion.. The Mongols were stirring in the latter 12th Century.. Evidence of this can be found in Data derived from the GreenLand Ice Core.. E.G. From “The volcanic record in ice cores for the past 2000 years”
    https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-642-61113-1_25

    Another Source is ” Record of Volcanism Since 7000 B.C. from the GISP2 Greenland Ice Core and Implications for the Volcano-Climate System.”
    https://scinapse.io/papers/1982289088

    Temp/Time Graph illustrating this in-between Significant Cold Period which precedes the Medieval Warming Period

    https://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2015/08/global-temperature-last-10000-years.jpg

  19. Ok, solar effects, the seas are moderating the cooling trend. Releasing the heat back to the atmosphere. Just as they moderated the heating effect. Just as the storms over water are moderating, less water vapor, less heat fewer storms, and one less mentioned, there is more ice, and reports of ice further south, lasting all year. How do you start a glacier?

  20. A couple of “issues” I have with this article are, 1.) the relatively minor term can best be used with reference to the warming since the little ice age, not to the cooling OF the little ice age. That was not minor. 2.) There is no way in God’s world or any other one that we can say “the cooling was .007c per millennium.” We can’t even be certain of that small a change now with modern instruments, and I’ll be damned if you can read that definition from “ice cores.” Let’s keep the numbers within the realm of reality.

    The oncoming ice age has been telegraphed for decades if not centuries. The current reaction to the slight warming we have experienced is a calculated one for the purpose of setting up the depopulation of the modern world, and for no other reason.

    Every month they draw out this stupid war on energy from other than “renewables,” is a month less we can use to prepare to protect humanity from the oncoming cold. There will undoubtedly have to be wholesale changes in our way of life – perhaps it will have to be managed by governments – but the population doesn’t have to drop back to well under a billion so that the elite can continue to live in 21st century life styles, which is what the current “model” would have.

    The war on carbon based energy has nothing to do with saving the planet, it has everything to do with ridding the world of so called useless eaters, the old, the infirm, and anyone else that doesn’t have the means to survive in a cold, starving world.

  21. Stock up on MREs (meals ready to eat) or what we called them in Vietnam Meals Rejected by Etheopians, this at a time when all the panic was about Global Warming. Now all the hysteria is about Global Cooling, next doubtless global staying the sameness

  22. move to +-20 deg of the equator! learn how to grow food!

    A note on past Ice ages..when I hiked in NZ South Is. You can see the glacial cut terraces 3000′ above the valley floor (in many SI alpine areas) and that was about 12000 years ago. Wait till it comes back!

  23. I moved to Mexico, and if need be will go down to equator zones…
    But I read somewhere a while back (and not sure if accurate) that about 50 yrs before Columbus, about half the population was wiped out by a cold weather period.

    Note about vegetation found in Alberta (?). Don’t forget Hapgood’s axis tilt theory. Every 60,000 years or so there is a flip of North to South during which large parts of the earth’s crust slip and slide into new configurations (breaking up land masses, forming large mountain ranges and so forth). So land at the Poles now was not before necessarily. Note that when such a ‘wobble’ or ’tilt’ occurs, the entire planet flips in a matter of hours, so this creates a sudden cataclysm which probably wipes out most complex life forms on the surface.

    In which case, a very good boat is probably called for!

  24. On trees, during the last Glacial Period, a great Pine forest stretched from New Jersey down the east coast of the USA to Mexico city, Mexico. Very similar to the sub-arctic of today. Great for a hot fires not so great for food trees.

  25. Perhaps, over here in England, we had better make the best of the very hot summer we are having — I live in the south and the temperature this afternoon in our garden was just about 90F.

  26. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dl2rObdNUFw

    20,000 YEARS IN PUGET SOUND, animation of Puget Sound glaciation circa 19,000 to 16,000 BP from the Burke Museum, the Washington Sate Museum of Natural History.

    This illustrates how quickly climates can change over a period of just 3,000 years glaciation advanced from Canada at a rate of 450 feet per year (approx) filling Puget Sound with glacial ice all the way south to what is now Olympia, burying Seattle, and then retreated back to British Columbia.

    The coming of the next ice age will probably not – based on past chronologies – happen in a few years, or a few decades, but in a few centuries could wreak unprecedented catastrophic havoc on a world with an unprecedented human population of 7+ billion.

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