Canadian crop estimates in ‘sharp decline’

The official 2019/20 Canadian Crop Estimates Reports was released last week by Statistics Canada.

Surveys of more than 13,100 farmers were conducted between July 4 and Aug 5 with the results revealing a “sharp decline” in Wheat, Soybean and Corn due to “adverse seasonal conditions”.

The culprit was the cold and wet weather across major producing areas at seeding time which led to delayed planting and poor germination, according to the survey.

Breaking the numbers down, electroverse sees a 23.1% decline in durum wheat and a staggering 31.4% fall in winter wheat. Fortunately, spring wheat looks to be up some 4.9%, which prevented the overall production number from falling off a cliff.

Canada’s canola production is expected to be 3.9% below the five-year average, soybean production is forecast to decline 14.6% and a 2% reduction is forecast for corn production, the lowest in five years.

Thanks to Jack Hydrazine for this link

9 thoughts on “Canadian crop estimates in ‘sharp decline’”

  1. Robert,
    I have found a good book to read is the “THIRD HORSEMAN, Climate Change and The Great Famine of the 14th Century” by William Rosen
    A quote from the flap,”In May 1315, It started to rain. It didn’t stop anywhere in northern Europe until August. Next came the coldest winters in a millennium. Two separate animal epidemics killed nearly 80% of northern Europe’s livestock. Wars between Scotland and England, France and Flanders and two rival claimants to the rule of the Holy Roman Empire destroyed the remaining farmland. After seven years, the combination of lost harvests, warfare, and pestilence would claim 6 million lives –one eighth of Europe’s total population.”
    Rosen points out how Europe and English populations increased during the Medieval Warming Period (MWP) and how there was the destruction of the forest to allow the raising of crops. The crops pulled the nitrogen from the soil which did not get replaced. Thus land owners had poor soil for growing their crops for food. As the population increased, the Europeans had to clear more land to grow more food. Then in the early 14th century the weather changed. There were very cold winters between 1309 and 1312. Then after a drop in the North Atlantic Oscillation of 1315 the rains began and lasted for months causing a great famine. Rosen states that it was not just the weather but climate change, war and population growth all led to the famine.

    “You have to know the past to understand the present.” Dr. Carl Sagan
    Thanks Robert for your web site

  2. Oops missed it by that much. I figure the USDA ultra stupid department of agriculture is going to be off about 4 to 6 billion bushels on corn. Depending on how wide spread the cold the next couple of weeks becomes. It does not have to freeze it just has to cut the GDD to a point things slow down or stop maturing till the freeze hits. We should be getting 20 units a day in September. From what I see on the GFS it will be low single digits to essentially nothing.

  3. Very good work. Hopefully we will see some fine tuning of these numbers soon. One bad year might not mean much but if it is a multi year event that would suggest that we could be in a mini ice age just like the early 14th or 19th centuries for example. Serial crop failure leads to famine and starvation. Adjusting the choice of crops planted could be a life saver.

  4. the sad thing is that these are all still just very optimistic forecasts. Be prepared for the facts to be lower than this.

  5. I admit I dont see losing gmo corn or soy as a loss
    the non gmo crops though…real food like wheat, thats not good for the daily bread supply

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