Chinese 2,485-year tree-ring study forecasts cold and colder til 2068

A blockbuster Chinese study of Tibetan tree rings by Liu et al 2011 forecasts a cooling planet ’til 2068.

In addition, the study shows that today’s climate is normal when compared to the last 2,500 years. The temperature, the rate of change — the world has seen it all before.

Amplitudes, rates, periodicities and causes of temperature variations in the past 2,485 years and future trends over the central-eastern Tibetan Plateau [Chinese Sci Bull,]

Tibetan tree-ring study - Liu et al 2011

In Tibet, temperatures were about the same as today on at least four occasions — in late Roman times (those chariots!), again in the dark ages, then in the middle ages (the Vikings?), and today.

“Clearly, these climate cycles have nothing to with human civilization,” says this article on The team found natural cycles of many different lengths: 2-3 years, 100 years, 199 years, 800 years, and 1,324 years. The cold periods are associated with sunspot cycles.

These brave scientists have published exact predictions for the next 100 years. They think it will cool til 2068, then warm again, though not to the same warmth as 2006 levels.

Though these predictions come from tree-ring studies in Tibet, the results agree reasonably well with hundreds of other studies from all around the world (from Medieval times, Roman times, the Greenland cores).

See all of this great article, including several graphs:

Thanks to Burt Rutan, Rens van Rijswijk and Craig Adkins for this link

“Real science here, not the biased fraud from IPCC,” says Burt. “Stock up on your overcoats…  :-)”



Liu Y, Cai Q F, Song H M, et al. Amplitudes, rates, periodicities and causes of temperature variations in the past 2485 years and future trends over the central-eastern Tibetan Plateau. Chinese Sci Bull, 2011, 56: 2986-2994, doi: 10.1007/s11434-011-4713-7 [ Climate Change over the Past Millennium in China.]


7 thoughts on “Chinese 2,485-year tree-ring study forecasts cold and colder til 2068”

  1. Coincidentally I was reading this Chinese translation yesterday.
    It says that Isaac Newton knew that the world may/will end in 2060 or a little later. That was 300 years ago!
    Knowing who Newton was I would be tempted to believe that it was his calculus genius and not the religious up-bringing that led him to this amazing discovery.
    Here is the scan of that famous original paper.

  2. wuwt ran an item on this also, and yes it IS nice to see science AS science, no hype they are happy to show and share the data..unlike a few others we know of.

    • Baseless, yeah; over 2000 years of uniform tree-ring data vs 6 dead polar bears spotted once and not autopsied. Is it baseless to you because Al Gore hasn’t endorsed it? Personally, I will put more credence in a 2000 year exact recording of temperature change over a bunch of scientists trying to win big grants by fudging numbers and conspiring to silence opposing views.

  3. On July 14th 2079, all of the planets along with our moon, will be aligned within 3 degrees of each other. This hasn’t happened in over 500 years. The 1982 alignment wasn’t as good as this one coming up.

  4. “…The millennium-scale cycle of solar activity determined the long-term temperature variation trends, while century-scale cycles controlled the amplitudes of temperature. Sunspot minimum events were associated with cold periods…” how “refreshing” is to read unbiased scientific analysis that you can *feel* the truth of what they’re saying. I’ve always had this “impression” that there are longer solar cycles than those usually acknowledged in the various articles, papers, etc. I believe even in the full blown Ice Ages it’s noticeable patterns of nearly 15-20 ky that could indicate solar cycles spanning these long periods.

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