Cold Comfort

Cold Comfort

“The obvious often catches people by surprise. The last Ice Age came on very swiftly and the next is likely to do so as well.”

 


Cold Comfort

By Alan Caruba


Unless you live in Seattle, you likely did not know that the National Weather Service just announced that the city endured its third coolest June on record. As much of America swelters through a heat wave, it’s not surprising that the usual suspects are telling everyone that it’s because of “global warming.”

I have a longtime friend, Ron Marr who has a Jack Russell Terrier and in a recent commentary for Missouri Life magazine, he wrote that, “Jack doesn’t believe in global warming in the least; he does not believe the recent atmospheric hellfire results from ozone holes or aerosol cans or giant leprechauns with a big magnifying glass. We share the same views on the topic and have discussed them often. Our considered opinion is that this streak of blazing nonsense stems from the fact that—to put it in scientific terms—it’s summer and the sun is hot.”

On July 3rd Seth Borenstein, a reporter for the Associated Press, a newswire service that has been reporting global warming lies for decades, wrote that “If you want a glimpse of some of the worst of global warming, scientists suggest taking a look at U.S. weather in recent weeks.”

IT’S SUMMERTIME, SETH! IT GETS HOT IN THE SUMMER!

It did not take long for the high priests of global warming to proclaim the current WEATHER to be CLIMATE. There’s a very big difference. Weather is what is occurring now while climate is measured in terms of centuries. It’s about trends and cycles.

It surely has been a hot summer thus far. Reuters reported that “more than 2,000 temperature records have been matched or broken in the past week as a brutal heat wave baked much of the United States.” The announcement was made by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) on July 2nd.

Meteorologist Joe Bastardi took another reporter to task for coupling the heat wave with global warming, pointing out that “The US is less than 10% of the globe” while ignoring that “Scandinavia had coldest June on record and that Australia is having a bad winter.”

What we should all know by now is that the Warmists all use trickery to advance their hoax.

The simple fact is that heat waves are nothing new. In 1936 a North American heat wave was the most severe in the modern history of the continent. It occurred in the middle of the Great Depression, killing more than 5,000 Americans and desiccating vast amounts of crops. To put it in perspective, there were no home air conditioning appliances at the time. People depended on fans to circulate the air.

The sun surely is hot, but its heat—solar radiation—has not been sufficient to avoid cyclical ice ages and short term periods of intense cold because the sun itself goes through cycles of increasing and diminishing solar radiation.

There was a “Little Ice Age” that lasted between 1550 and 1850. Temperatures dropped to the point that the Thames River in England froze over and “frost fairs” were held on its surface. It was felt through Europe and parts of North America.

Writing in The Wall Street Journal, Matt Ridley noted that “Over the past million years, it has been as warm as this or warmer for less than 10% of the time, during 11 brief episodes known as interglacial periods,” adding that “this warm spell is already 11,600 years old, and it must surely, in the normal course of things, come to an end.”

The average length of interglacial periods is 11,500 years.

In the 1970s, prior to the global warming hoax, many scientists were convinced that a new ice age had begun. In January 2012, a member of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Habibullo Abdusamatov, predicted that the next ice age will begin in 2014 and will last at least two centuries. Regarding the timing, he could be right. He could be wrong. One thing is sure. The Earth is overdue another ice age.

My friend, Robert W. Felix, the author of “Not by Fire, But by Ice”, is an expert on ice ages and magnetic reversals. It is the latter that accompanied mass extinctions such as the dinosaur’s fate and many other species at the end of the Cretaceous period. In ice ages, the Earth’s water doesn’t disappear, it turns to ice. The current growth of the planet’s glaciers is an indicator of what is actually occurring.

Another indicator, of course, is the sun. On January 29, 2012, writing in the Daily Mail, a British newspaper, David Rose noted that “The supposed ‘consensus’ on man-made global warming is facing an inconvenient challenge after the release of new temperature data showing the planet has not warmed for the past 15 years.”

“After emitting unusually high levels of energy throughout the 20th century, the sun is now heading towards a ‘grand minimum’ in its output, threatening cold summers, bitter winters, and a shortening of the season available for growing food. Solar output goes through 11-year cycles, with high numbers of sunspots seen at their peak.”

“We are now at what should be the peak of what scientists call ‘Cycle 24’…but sunspot numbers are running at less than half those seen during cycle peaks in the 20th century.” Oddly, despite the obvious and documented effect of the sun on the planet’s average temperature, there remain scientists who are unconvinced of its essential role. Only a relative few even understand the role of magnetic reversals on the planet’s history.

Actually, the diminishing number of sunspots has been known for a while. In June 2010, Stuart Clark, writing in The New Scientist, observed that “For the past two years, the sunspots have mostly been missing. Their absence, the most prolonged for nearly a hundred years, has taken even seasoned sun watchers by surprise.”

The obvious often catches people by surprise. The last Ice Age came on very swiftly and the next is likely to do so as well. In the meantime, the current heat wave will capture everyone’s attention.

© Alan Caruba, 2012

http://factsnotfantasy.blogspot.com/2012/07/cold-comfort.html

Alan Caruba’s commentaries are posted daily at “Warning Signs” and shared on dozens of news and opinion websites. His blog recently passed more than 1.6 million page views. If you love to read, visit his monthly report on new books at Bookviews. For information on his professional skills, Caruba Editorial Services is the place to go! You can find him on both Facebook and Twitter as well.


30 thoughts on “Cold Comfort”

  1. We all have noticed the delayed effect which plays out between the sun and the existing weather patterns. An example of this is when the summer solstice comes at a time when the day is at its longest and the sun at its highest point in the sky, the high temperatures come later in the summer. The inverse is true as well during the winter solstice. The colder days are yet to come because of the delay I speak of.
    I suspect that the same law comes into affect when the sunspots are at a peak and when they are not. I believe there is a delay in its affect. What I am not sure of is how long will this delay be? Does anyone out there have any input on that? Would it be days, months, years?

    • I believe the delay depends on previous climate. We’re now coming from a very strong sequence of solar cycle, since cycle 17 in the 1930’s basically, which warmed our planet globally and affect air circulation, with reflections in ocean temperatures and icecaps.
      These two effects are important in connection with the lag between solar radiation and the corresponding climate change, specially the Arctic polar ice which is more sensible to solar radiation and has a more immediate effect on the weather of the NH.
      Cycle 23 was still considerably strong and only after 2008 the effects of the new trend started to manifest.
      Other aspects are the dryness of the Atmosphere and the normal oscillations of the heat circulation in the oceans and the air.
      Some interesting reading regarding heat circulation in the oceans is here,
      http://chiefio.wordpress.com/2012/05/02/sea-temperature-time-delay/
      and in the atmosphere (with predicted strong cooling in connection with the present trend in solar radiations) here,
      http://westernusawx.info/forums/index.php?showtopic=33725&st=0
      My interpretation is that now the icecaps of both poles are showing a trend to rebound and, if the present trend of solar radiation continues, this should reflect very clearly on the climate from now on, or at most in a couple of years. I see no reason why it should take more than that.

  2. First of all I would like to say I love this heat and cannot stand all the people complaining about it. Second of all, yes it is summer and it is supposed to be hot but temperatures are running way above normal. When it is all said and done, many places will probably experience a top 5 warmest summer ever. You people claim that the world is getting cooler so why is it there are places that are getting warmer?

    • @Jason
      “You people claim that the world is getting cooler so why is it there are places that are getting warmer?”

      I think you are over estimating the importance of US temperature records. Accurate temperature records in the US as recorded with modern mercury or digital thermometers only go back to 1850. The entire country wasn’t even settled in 1850, heck the entire east coast wasn’t even settled in 1850. There are tremendous gaps in the data.
      When someone releases a statement like,” Highest temperatures ever” they really mean “highest temp ever recorded using modern techniques in the last 170 years”. When you start talking about places out west the record gets much shorter.
      The fact is these are not “all time” as in since the beginning of the universe. They are not even “all time” as in since humans first set foot on the North American continent. They are “all time” as in data culled from a very short and spotty and inaccurate record that only became truly reliable in the first half of the 20th century.
      I can only speak for myself but I get the feeling that most of us here don’t consider that trend worthy or notable.

    • Jason the best explaination I’ve heard is that excess heat in the gulf of mexico is building up and having an adverse effect on the regional climate due to the loop current being impaired by the oil and corexit that poured into the gulf of mexico. The warm water is not getting to places like Norway but is pulled into the mid atlantic gyre. As for excess heat in cities that is caused by all that concrete and pavement absorbing and storing heat. It is a microclimate.
      As the ice age sets in you should expect to see greater extremes in climate with the temperate climate zones pushed down to the gulf of mexico and there should be a boreal and tundra zone in the central and northern states. Canada and some of america will have ice sheets. People will then be praying for global warmingup north and closer to the equator they will be praying for rain.

    • lots of places are having record heat – and lots of places are having record cold (all at the same time) – this is due to weather which is a local or regional effect and varies all over the place. Here in Oregon a 60 degree change in temperature from one day to the next is not unusual. Climate is the overall planet picture. Climate is in a cooling trend (not 10 +- degrees per day, but fractions of a degree per year change). What we are all griping about is the global warming religion that says every high temperature is proof that the planet is warming and every cold temperature is “just local weather” You can’t have it both ways. There is also an effect called the “urban heat sink” which is touted for homes as passive solar heating – when you pave everything, especially with black asphalt, it holds the heat and releases it slowly all night so the area stays warmer than it would without all of that heat-holding concrete and asphalt. Anyway, the weather will do what it will do and we can survive a warmer climate but will need advance preparation for a climate much colder than today’s. That is why we all pay more attention to cold weather than warm on this site.

  3. Still… they only thing coming to mind when talking about an almost instant iceage is… a geographic poleshift, not magnetic poleshift! But the talks about PX/Nibiru or an 2012 galactic alignment is mostly coming from moneyloving actors, new age actors pretending to “tell the truth” in the name of the zeta or the pleiadans. Charlatans.

    • Geographic poleshift is a real yet rare phenomenon, see ‘Pole Shift’ a scientific investegative book by John White.

      Much much more common is the magnetic flip, which is recorded in the spreading of the sea-floors mid-ocean rifts.

      Add in plate tectonics, or crustal movement which is rarely purely linear but nearly always involves rotation, or movement in an arc, and you can see what kind of a complex puzzle is recorded in the mag. orientation of different rock strata.

      If you’ve ever watched a top spinning, then you get an idea of how quickly a spinning orb can rebalance itself in mid-spin. The Earth though is not balanced by gravity on a spinning point like a top. Earth is spinning around her magnetic axis and is thus more susceptible to changes in magnetism, at least that’s how it seems to me.

      Would the rotational axis change due to a re-strengthening of magnetic field in a new orientation?

      And how strong is the link between Solar magnetic behavior and that of Earth?

  4. I’ll take a bit of global warming anyday.

    I am always amazed at residents of essentially cool or cold climatic areas having anxiety attacks over a bit of warmth.

    Where I live it gets cool for at most 3 – 4 months of a year with maybe 2 months a year where maximums are around 20 C and minimums around 5 – 9 C.

    The rest of the year its shorts and short sleeve shirts – our average temperature is around 25 C.

    If anywhere is going to suffer through global warming it is going to be the tropical and sun tropical areas.

    We should be grateful that the land area in the tropics is small compared to the ocean area – reverse that and the Earth would be very different.

    Water exerts a negative feedback in the climate system with evaporation taking large quantities of energy that otherwise could be “converted” into increased temperatures – only a climate scientist could miss this obvious fact – and most of the tropics and sub tropics is ocean.

    The “runaway greenhouse effect” is unscientific nonsense !

    • Actually, Rosco, I believe I read in one of the site explaining about climate that the tropics will show the least amount of temperature fluxuation. But if a full-blown ice age happens none of this will matter because the world (human societies and cultures) will change in ways we cannot imagine yet.

  5. As long as Global Warming = Big Business we know it is all a hoax.

    SPIEGEL Interview with Richard Branson
    ‘Climate Change Is a Huge Opportunity’

    In an interview, British entrepreneur Sir Richard Branson argues that climate change will only be taken seriously when companies can find ways to profit from it. The battle to prevent global warming, he argues, requires brains and creativity.

    http://www.spiegel.de/international/business/richard-branson-discusses-climate-change-business-opportunities-a-839985.html

    it’s urgent

    http://youtu.be/YFqGdK3bSX0

  6. I’m preparing for a cold, dry world with a rapidly decreasing population, where the great powers are fighting a 100 years war. Wish us all luck.

  7. I can laugh the states enjoying nice heatwave here in the UK we had not had a proper summer heat wew years now now its funny how some parts Europe seen freak snow that is some funny global warming and its funny northern high blocking over Greenland sticking and across mid Atlantic I only see in winter not summer UK having it wettest coolest June on record and now July is repeating and its funny and odd how fresh sea forming of eastern Greenland that’s funny and odd I think the couple of readers is not looking at larger picture the rest of the globe is still cooling and you think a heavy heatwave is global warming you need to wake your heatwave local climate not global

    • The current heatwave affecting the mid and eastern U.S. is merely an extension of our unusually warm winter, and it is caused by temperature gradient changes in our atmosphere which have increased the amplitude of Rossby waves generated by the jetstream. Instead of a zonal flow W>E, the phenomenon is called a Meridional flow, going South, then North, then South , etc. Because of the higher amplitude, these Rossby waves tend to become entrenched and take weeks longer than usual to migrate from West to East across the continent. Current AO phase helps to lock this phenomena in place. Generally, if you’re South of the jetstream you’ll be warmer, and North of it, cooler.

      • Interesting, and the increased the amplitude of Rossby waves is caused by the increasing cooling of the polar regions since ~ 2000, which will become stronger during the solar grand minimum.

  8. As the cycle of weather retreats from the cyclic high temps of the 1990s, we are again experiencing global weather similar to prior decades. The last couple years have been similar to the 1930s. We have a dust bowl and heat waves in Texas, Oklahoma, and middle America, like the 1930s. We have hurricanes turning north and going up the east coast instead of continuing westward toward Texas — like the 1930s. As the cycle continues we will soon be repeating weather more similar to the 1910s or 1900s. Its a cycle. It has nothing to do with whatever humans are doing except how we cope with Mother Nature.

  9. I could do with some warming. The last three summers in Otago, New Zealand have been a sad state of affairs. Usually the average max temp is 35 C and average min temp is 24 C. While lately I have had to consider putting out frost cloth in the dead of summer.
    Average maximums are down to 25 C with multiple frosts and low snow throughout the hottest months.

  10. This the best article by Alan so far. At this time, the jet stream is halfway up Canada but on the European side the jet stream is much further south than usual. For the past few years it has been swinging wildly from north to south to north, rather like a whip action. We are baking here in West Virginia post-derecho with no mains power for the past 6 days(thank God for the battery back-up system!), no phones, and many with no water. However, my mom back in the UK is running the central heating and is wearing her early winter gear!

    There is a link between solar activity and jet stream activity:

    http://www.ehow.com/info_8412297_solar-flare-effects-jet-stream.html

    Also, bring in factors such as the current accelerating magnetic migration of the north pole towards Russia causing additional earth changes.. this migration impacts the jet stream of course.. and we are brewing for serious “disruptions” including a pending Ice Age..

    • Here are a few more arguments in the same direction.

      In the link below we have the graphs of RSS showing the strong stratospheric cooling that has been happening since 1980,
      http://www.remss.com/msu/msu_data_description.html#msu_amsu_time_series
      Notice that if we consider only the last ~ 12 years, the cooling is happening also in the troposphere.
      Now, if we add the fact that the PDO has changed to negative phase in 2008 and the AMO is about to do the same anytime soon (I believe until the end of this year, depending on the solar radiation), we get both the atmosphere and the oceans of the world showing a simultaneous trend to negative anomalies-lower temperatures- in the near future.

      Now, with regard to the solar radiations, the pattern of flipping of the solar polar field defines a cycle of approx. 10-11 years between flips, which occur during the maximum of each cycle- in the next graph we have the maxima of cycles 21 (at ~ 1980), 22 (at ~ 1990) and 23 (at ~ 2000).
      With this in mind and looking at the following graph from Leif Svaalgard’s work,
      http://wso.stanford.edu/gifs/Polar.gif
      we see that there has been no flip in the present cycle, which is probably one of the main aspects that characterize this cycle as the beginning of a grand minimum.
      Notice in the graph how in the years that precede and succeed the normal “flip” the rate of decrease or increase of the polar field intensity is nearly a straight line and the present trend shows the field approaching the zero-strength line very, very slowly with a decreasing rate with time.
      Then, if we extrapolate this trend to the next few years we could have the polar fields reaching the zero-strength line with zero or very low rate of change.
      Therefore, this would mean that the fields would remain at zero-strength for a very, very long time, again indicating that the present trend (solar minimum) is not going to be of short duration.

      Meanwhile … people will continue to worry about the “heat wave” and, as Alan said, they’ll be taken by surprise when the new climate comes.

  11. My question is. Has anyone taken into consideration that all the wildfires we have going on here in the U.S. might have some affect on the temperatures seen by some of the country. Thats alot of heat coming off those fires and it seems like that sould also have some affect on the weather patterns. Not only on the local weather patterns surrounding them.

  12. Where going to have a temp drop soon!!!!!!!!The reason, water vapor!!!!!As the drought continues,it is easier to heat and cool the air when there is dry air. Anyone study the 1930’s? That was a stong solar cycle. Now,what do you think is going to happen with the dry air during a very weak solar cycle? Exspect exstream tempurature swings from very hot in summer to very cold in winter!!!!We can handle one,or two,weak solar cycles. Its the third one im worried about!!!!!!!

  13. I’d love a touch of that warming over here in Europe. A high of 70F is not enough summer for me. With our vacation planned for England, looks like we’ll pack sweaters and umbrellas for our beach holiday. Haven’t seen much warming news in the British press recently!

  14. the recent ENSO meter is tipping toward El Nino at .5 …so you folks in usa will prob cop big rains this coming season, while aus goes back to drought again:-(

  15. I believe in Alan as I believe the sun controls climate and I believe if the sun stays in the same stage of sunspot activity we are heading into a ice age, at this very moment in Australia we are breaking cold records every where it is good for the skiers

  16. and the worst is yet to come. genetically engineered food does not have the diversity needed to withstand changes. it has been designed for a specific climate and its insects, and other diseases. with the changes in weather our food supply will rapidly diminish.
    wait until our winter when all the food we normally now get from Central and South America is not forthcoming because of their terrible climate this season. Argentina has had a distastrous crop season.
    and to top it all off, the idiots in our government have taken what little corn we will have left after this “hot” summer and relegated it to the inefficient, non cost effective , waste, known as ethanol. great for drinking, but not very good as a fuel.
    and just when we will need it most, our snow plows will not run as the government increases the ethanol content from 10% in our fuel to 15 or even 20% and our engines fail from ethanol corrosion.
    regardless of your religious beliefs, a man named Joseph suggested the king save the food in the good years, for the bad years. We have wasted the good years , burned our food, and will see the suffering in the bad years to come.
    wishing everyone the best.

  17. There was an astrophysicist a couple of years ago who said “forget the heat – an ice age is due.” I’d rather pay attention to him, especially now that ships are still stuck in thick ice in Northern Canada and the Bering Strait and Anchorage is still shoveling snow from last winter’s record breaking cold & snow across all of Alaska.

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