“The In-depth Story Behind a Climate Fraud” – The so-called 97% consensus was based on only 2% of the responses.
Dr. John Robson, historian and journalist, investigates the unsound origins and fundamental inaccuracy, even dishonesty, of the claim that 97% of scientists, or “the world’s scientists”, or something agree that climate change is man-made, urgent and dangerous.
There are millions of scientists in the world. How many, exactly, were surveyed? When were they surveyed? Who did it? And what exactly did they agree on?
In 2009, a pair of researchers at the University of Illinois sent an online survey to over 10,000 earth scientists asking two simple questions:
(1) Do you agree that global temperatures have generally risen since the pre-1800s?
(2) Do you think that human activity is a significant contributing factor?
They didn’t single out greenhouse gases, says Robson. They didn’t explain what the term ‘significant’ meant. And, they didn’t refer to ‘danger,’ or ‘crisis.’
Only 3,146 scientists responded to the survey. Of those 3,146 responses, 90% said yes, temperatures had risen since the Little Ice Age. Only 82% said ‘yes’ to the second question, that human activity was a significant contributing factor.
Interestingly, among meteorologists, only 64% said human activity was a factor.
This means that a third of the experts who replied didn’t think humans played a significant role in global warming, let alone a dominant one. What really got the most media attention was that, among the 77 respondents who described themselves as climate experts, 75 said ‘yes’ to the question if they considered human activity a significant factor. And voila!, 75 out of 77 is 97%. It didn’t get media attention that the ‘consensus’ was based on only 77 out of 3,146 responses.
In other words, they found a 97% consensus based on only 2% of the responses.
The 97% claim seems to have begun with science historian Naomi Oreskes, who in 2004 claimed she had looked at 928 articles about climate change in scientific journals, and that 75 percent of them endorsed the “consensus view” that Earth’s climate is being affected by human activities and that none directly disputed it.
By 2006, in Al Gore’s Inconvenient Truth, this finding had somehow morphed into a massive study of every scientific article in a peer-reviewed journal written on global warming for the last 10 years, and they took a big sample of ten percent of 928 articles. And you know the number of those that disagreed with the scientific consensus that we’re causing global warming and that it’s a serious problem? asked Gore. Out of the 928? Zero.
That was a fib, says Robson.
Gore took a study that found that 75% endorsed the idea that humans have some affect on climate and turned it into proof that 100% of scientists believe it’s a serious problem. It does no such thing.
Thanks to Gabriel Rychert for this video