Descent into the next Glacial Period perhaps within our lifetimes

“If planners and governments want to prepare for a substantial “climate change” in the future, it’s global cooling they should be concerned about, not global warming.”
– Gregory F. Fegel

Descent into the next Glacial Period perhaps within our lifetimes

The effects of global cooling will be far more devastating than global warming.
Gregory F. Fegel

Unlike the current CO2-caused Global Warming hysteria, the threat of an approaching “Ice Age” Glacial Period that was presented in the 1970s was based on solid science — including the combined evidence of the geologic record, ice cores, sea sediments, and pollens, all of which matched the cyclical insolation (amount of sunlight) pattern caused by the orbital Milankovitch cycles. In the 1970s, it was confirmed that the Milankovitch cycles cause the Ice Age cycle — which is taught in earth-science textbooks.

In the 1970s, the media emphasized the fact that a large change in the Earth’s mean global temperature could happen within decades — in that way the media promoted “global cooling hysteria” in the 1970s. In spite of the fact that the climate in the 1980s and 90s became warmer, the scientific evidence for an approaching Glacial Period was valid, and it remains valid. Some scientists claim that our current warm interglacial (the Holocene) will be different from the previous interglacials by lasting twice as long — giving us another 15,000 years of a warm climate. However, that theory of a warm 15,000-year extension is speculative.

Based on the regularity and timing of the Ice Age cycle so far, we should expect the descent into the next Glacial Period to begin (approximately) within hundreds of years, or perhaps within our own lifetimes. The idea that either natural or anthropogenic causes will intercede to prevent the next Glacial Period from returning within its usual time-frame is speculative — and it is perhaps a result of wishful thinking.

If planners and governments want to prepare for a substantial “climate change” in the future, it’s global cooling they should be concerned about, not global warming. Firstly, because severe global cooling is more likely to happen (eventually). Secondly, because the effects of global cooling will be far more devastating than global warming. A global sea-level rise caused by global warming would be easier to cope with than arctic conditions in Northern Europe, Russia, Canada, and Alaska caused by global cooling. A warmer global climate would be a net benefit for all life on Earth.

19 thoughts on “Descent into the next Glacial Period perhaps within our lifetimes”

  1. CO2 is not as bad as Ocean methane. Result of both is lower altitudes are thermal inertia loaded much more than 1980s… i.e. cloud heights were 50K, are 65K, storm fronts between H and L were 300 miles are 1500 miles, Hurricanes were cat 3, are Cat 6. Add to this Volcanic ash, SO2 above this warm moist inertia based atmosphere and you get significant snow outcomes (4 feet one storm), rapid jet stream fluctuations.

  2. “Some scientists claim that our current warm interglacial (the Holocene) will be different from the previous interglacials by lasting twice as long — giving us another 15,000 years of a warm climate. However, that theory of a warm 15,000-year extension is speculative.”

    More likely wishful thinking while also having a gut feeling that the world really is in trouble from the prospect of global cooling…

    • Steven that is wishful thinking from the Geoengineering mob intent on proving they can control the Earth’s cooling system – the overturning current by injecting Sulphates into the high Atmosphere to reduce solar based oceanic heating or removing and sequestrating CO2 from the atmosphere directly to produce methane for storage using renewables as an off line power source.
      The problem is the Earth already has those processes over longer time scales over very long periods of years. For example CO2 is sequestrated over long time scales into limestone structures such as the G. Barrier reef, which when buried then becomes a sequestration capture area for upwelling hydrocarbons.
      Shorter term CO2 sequestration on 500 year time scales also takes place via rainout of Oxides such as NO2 and CO2 into the watershed areas around the Arctic ocean, that winter precipitation during spring remains cold during run off with its loading of rained out CO2 which quickly sinks in the Arctic ocean providing the 1 two 2C temperature return current on its 500 year return leg to the Pacific.
      That sequestrated cos water commenced its flow to the central pacific water during the early part of the LIA at present, water from the LIA Spoorer GSM commenced its pacific up welling to release its CO2 during the 1950s and has and will continue for another 420 year from now regardless of what the West does to trash its economy CO2 will continue to rise.

    • Christophe Robbe wrote: “”A warmer global climate would be a net benefit for all life on Earth”. Is this fact or opinion ?”

      Here is my reply — Global Warming will cause the sea level to rise, but it will also create more oceanic evaporation and precipitation throughout the world, resulting in the greening-up of arid regions, including the Sahara, Arabia, Gobi, Australian Outback, the American southwest, and other areas. Land that is lost to sea-level rise will be offset by the greening up that will benefit agriculture, livestock, forestry, and nearly all plants and animals. That’s a fact. My opinion is that global warming is far more desirable than global cooling, both for humans and for nearly all life on Earth.

      • During the last global warming period Greenland was warmer then it is now and paintings and drawings of the Thames river showed it to be the same level as today.

        I’ve heard of workers at the SF Bay that have been there for 40+ years and the sea level there hasn’t risen even a tiny bit. My grandmother lives below sea level in Port Townsend and the sea level is the same it always has been. It has not risen at all.

        Melted ice in water drops the water level. Ice has a larger volume. Melted Sea Ice drops the sea level. Decreasing salinity may expand ocean volume but not enough. Melting land glaciers may cause rising seas but apparently not enough based on the Thames and current Pudget Sound levels where my grandma has lived since the late 90s.

        Facts are stubborn things.

  3. What is the basis for this hypothesis that calls for another 15,000 years of warm climate beyond wishful thinking? Are there any known precedents that would support such a belief?

    • Some scientists are claiming that high CO2 levels will postpone the onset of the next Glacial Period, which, if it were to repeat the timing of the previous cycles, should begin quite soon. A year or two ago, I read a Wikipedia article that quoted a study which claimed that high CO2 levels would postpone the next Glacial Period by 15,000 years. Now I have found that other studies are claiming that high CO2 levels will delay the onset of the next Glacial Period for 50,000, 150,000, or even 500,000 years. These studies are based on computer models which assume that CO2 levels of 400 to 560 ppm will partly or completely prevent the onset of the next Glacial Period. I regard these studies as highly speculative. See the quotes below.

      “Berger and Loutre suggests that the current warm climate may last another 50,000 years. The amount of heat trapping (greenhouse) gases being emitted into Earth’s Oceans and atmosphere may delay the next glacial period by an additional 50,000 years.”

      “We predict that a carbon release from fossil fuels or methane hydrate deposits of 5000 Gton C could prevent glaciation for the next 500,000 years.”

      “Presently, we are experiencing an abnormally long interglacial called the Holocene that has lasted nearly 11,000 years. A new glaciation has been expected to begin; however, due to human induced climate change or anthropogenic climate change, the next glaciation is being delayed anywhere from a few thousand to hundreds of thousands of years. Therefore, it is expected that the Holocene interglacial may last at least another 150,000 years.”
      — University of Calgary, June 4, 2018.

      • Today record-breaking cold weather has arrived a month early throughout the Northern Hemisphere. The putative CO2-caused Global Warming has so far been unable to diminish the temperature of the annual winter — so we should not expect that it would prevent the far-colder cyclic recurrence of the next Glacial Period.

    • Well here in the PNW it’s been that scenario so I can see why it would spread like a virus. I’ve been seeing individual mini palm trees in areas more then usual and plants surviving well into December before closing for good in the winter.

      Sorry it may be different in your back yard but my region shows a increase in warming mostly at night. Daytime has been about neutral with a slight tilt to positive. 2013-15 a huge outliner.

  4. I sure hope so.
    I know a lot of people will suffer but I really want to see the looks on the Thurnbergites faces when they realize they’ve been played.

  5. People should consider the problems presented by cooling and a corresponding sea level drop. I think this could play havoc with the world economy. Think harbors and rivers for commerce and how difficult it would be with a significant drop in sea level elevation.

  6. For the record, Earth’s latest interstadial remission, her 12,250-year Holocene Interglacial Epoch that began c. 14,400 YBP, ended 12,250 + 3,500 – 14,400 = AD 1350 (Roman calendar, adjusted for the 1,500-year Younger Dryas “cold shock” from 11,950 – 10,450 YBP).
    In context, this coincided with the end of Earth’s Medieval Warm, driven by Kamchatka’s strato-volcano Kambalny Eruption, a 70-year Grand Solar Minimum similar to that of 1645 – 1715, and a 500-year Little Ice Age crashing global temperatures through AD 1850/1890.

    Combined with continental plate-tectonic dispositions, galactic Cosmic Radiation penetrating our system’s Solar Magnetic Field, and Geomagnetic Pole reversals, Earth’s long-term axial-precession/orbital Milankovich Cycles affect global temperatures via oscillating total solar irradiance (TSI) correlated with Earth’s distance from and orientation to the Sun. With episodic sunspot maxima and minima, these astro-geophysical climate determinants constitute a chaotic/fractal, random-recursive, complex dynamic system immune to any near-term prognosis in detail.

    Those who pretend otherwise act not from disinterested scientific motives but agenda-driven authoritarian, Luddite-Malthusian mindsets at odds with every principle of socio-cultural/economic peace-and-prosperity known to man.

  7. Will mini ice ages be hotter or colder for the PNW? It seems to be a lot more humid then usual in recent years especially at night. In October we started to have a pattern flip to a -PNA type but now it’s back to where we were in September several degrees above normal.

    Haven’t had a single frost since Mid Oct here in Oregon which we just touched 30F a few times. We have had a couple nights around 50F. Usually 50F is pineapple express weather from heavy rain events.

    • The Cliff Mass web article says, “By 10 AM on Wednesday [Nov 27], cold air is entrenched over the Northwest, with a very strong north-south pressure gradient that will create strong northerly and northeasterly winds.” As long as that strong wind from the northeast —which is always a dry wind, because it comes from the Canadian interior— keeps up, we won’t get rain nor snow in Portland, Oregon. If the northeast wind slows down, and clouds move in from the Pacific, we may get rain or snow —depending on whether the Pacific front is strong enough to push away the cold air. The cold, dry air from the northeast and the warm, wet air from the Pacific must commingle to produce snow in Portland.

  8. Hi i rarely read this page but i have a thought that has come to me. I agree that modern science cannot explain the onset of glacial periods correctly since I have never seen how they manage to model either 1. The amount of snowfall required or 2. The huge drop in summer temps needed especially the latter! I then had an idea. Is it possible that ice ages may be caused by reduction in the overall pressure of Earth’s surface? We know temperature and pressure and relative so if pressure falls, so must temperature! I agree that they correlate with magnetic excursions and increases in cosmic rays but, I think that this mostly affects the strasophere, rather than low cloud. If these cause ozone levels to plummet, this could easily cause the pressure drop required by increasing the height of the tropopause. And then you have the COLD and the SNOW together.

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