Did Lockdown Work? Doesn’t Look That Way

Swedish mortality rates are “considerably fewer than Italy, Spain and the United Kingdom, which all implemented much stricter policies,” says new study.
_____________

Did Lockdown Work? Doesn’t Look That Way

Jimmy Walter

Most of my “friends” are convinced the virus and the vaccine [and man-made global warming] are real.  When I corner them on why, they tell me they are “believing the science”. When I ask them for the science they are believing, they cannot give it to me. They admit they are just believing the “best looking” (most convincing) talking head like Fauci who changes his mandates like the wind. They have been told that the vaccine is the only way to stop the virus. They can’t believe the media and government would lie so boldly. When I give them alternative info, they dismiss it and me, saying things like, “let’s agree to disagree”, like it is some religion (which it is) and you can choose which you follow based on faith and presentation, not facts.

Here are excerpts from an August 2020 paper by Christian Bjørnskov of Aarhus University and the Research Institute of Industrial Economics, Stockholm.

I have highlighted what I consider to be  the most important points in bold.

Did Lockdown Work? An Economist’s Cross-Country Comparison

I compare weekly general mortality rates in the first half of the year in 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020 in 24 European countries that took very different policy measures against the virus at different points in time. Estimating the effects of these policy measures as captured by the Blavatnik Centre’s Covid 19 policy indices and taking the endogeneity of policy responses into account, the results suggest that stricter lockdown policies have not been associated with lower mortality.

While weekly mortality counts all actual deaths in the country, Covid 19-related deaths are counted as deaths where the deceased tested positive for the virus but where the death is not necessarily caused by the virus.

As indicated by previous research, policy responses to emergencies are often informed more by the promise of additional, unchecked power than the severity of the emergency.

The lockdowns in most Western countries have thrown the world into the most severe recession since World War II and the most rapidly developing recession ever seen in mature market economies. They have also caused an erosion of fundamental rights and the separation of powers in large part of the world as both democratic and autocratic regimes have misused their emergency powers and ignored constitutional limits to policy-making.

It is therefore important to evaluate whether and to which extent the lockdowns have worked as officially intended: to suppress the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus and prevent deaths associated with it. Comparing weekly mortality in 24 European countries, the findings in this paper suggest that more severe lockdown policies have not been associated with lower mortality. In other words, the lockdowns have not worked as intended.

These general findings are consistent with the results of a previous paper using a synthetic control method to test the effects of Sweden’s absence of a lockdown. Although much has been claimed about Sweden’s relatively high mortality rate, compared to the other Nordic countries, the present data show that the country experienced 161 fewer deaths per million in the first 8 ten weeks, and 464 more deaths in weeks 11-22. In total, Swedish mortality rates are 14 percent higher than in the preceding three years, which is slightly more than France, but considerably fewer than Italy, Spain and the United Kingdom that all implemented much stricter policies.

…evidence from Sweden as well as the evidence presented here does not suggest that lockdowns have significantly affected the development of mortality in Europe. It has nevertheless wreaked economic havoc in most societies and may lead to a substantial number of additional deaths for other reasons. A British government report from April for example assessed that a limited lockdown could cause 185,000 excess deaths over the next years.

Evaluated as a whole, at a first glance, the lockdown policies of the Spring of 2020 therefore appear to be substantial long-run government failures.

#  # #

Stay safe. Not from the virus, but from the vaccine, Gates, Fauci, and the other lying, conniving, government thugs.

~”All democracies degenerate into Tyrannies – they are the two faces of the same, oscillating thing”

– Socrates

___________

See the entire paper here:

Electronic copy available at:

https://ssrn.com/abstract=3665588

https://www.datascienceassn.org/sites/default/files/Did%20Lockdown%20Work%20An%20Economist %E2%80%99s%20Cross-Country%20Comparison.pdf

 


13 thoughts on “Did Lockdown Work? Doesn’t Look That Way”

  1. A British government report ‘assessed…..’, meaning projected. I presume Dr.Ferguson did the projecting.

    Hope you are well, Robert.

  2. I would just like to note that Hong Kong and Japan now have the longest life spans, while the U.S. is a pathetic 46th on the list, with lifespans about 6 years less! I would note that we have the highest per capita pharmaceutical costs in the world by far, and over 50% of our population have at least one chronic health issue! Do you really think the people telling us to wear masks, to be locked down, or to get a vaccines, really know anything about health or should even be listened too?

    • But if policy had allowed use of the protocols of zinc, ivermectin & doxycline (Ziverdo), or zinc, hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin (sp), in early stages of covid infection, for non-hospital distribution, perhaps the hospitals would never have been overwhelmed, at least no more than a bad flu year. Plus, the ‘second wave’ could be predicted simply because of the seasons – flu flourishes in the fall-winter months, and wanes in the summer months.

  3. There is certainly a problem with the UK official data. At the start coroners were told to record all deaths as Covid to avoid the need for post mortems. Then we have the absurd calling a death Covid if there was a positive test within 28 days. And then there are all those infected by our wonderful health care system and subsequently died.

    The tests have been shown to be unreliable so the 28 days is suspect. And even if true, did Covid really cause death? The NHS have been responsible for over 10,000 deaths and currently 80% of community infections involve at least one healthcare worker. This gives the UK an artificially high level of deaths. And we are constantly being told to stay at home to protect the NHS because they have failed to prepare for the forecast second wave whereas in truth they are the biggest risk of giving you the infection.

  4. Not to mention Belarus and Nicaragua. No lockdown, no masks. They did even better than Sweden.

    Belarus had LESS restrictions than Sweden and 1/6th the deaths. HCQ use may explain that difference. Swedes missed that one.

    Nicaragua is a 3rd world country and they are kicking our butts. They spend 1/10th or less per capita than we do on health care. Does anybody else find that embarrassing? Can we just fire Tam & Fauci and hire the folks from Nicaragua? They seem to know what they are doing.

  5. Attempting to compare the United States with Sweden is a huge mistake. There are many factors at play as to why their number of infections (and deaths) are lower than ours (adjusted for population difference).

    #1 Swedish people aren’t morons like Americans. They don’t go out and spit in the face of danger by ignoring common sense and attending large gatherings, rallies, and acting as if wearing a mask somehow takes away their freedom. They do not embrace ignorance the way the U.S. does.

    #2 The Swedish people are far healthier than Americans are. If they catch the virus, they are less likely to have severe symptoms.

    Why did it go so badly for the U.S.? Ignorance. Denial of an obvious pandemic. Only a partial lockdown as a percentage of the population refused to use good judgment. The U.S. has an adult obesity rate more than 70% higher than Sweden’s. Sweden has 60% more physicians per capita than the U.S., and their healthcare is free. If a Swedish person starts feeling sick, they can go to the doctor and get examined without fear of financial ruin.

    If Swedish people were as out of shape as Americans are, and if they embraced ignorance the way the U.S. does, and if they had a healthcare system that was largely out of reach for much of the population, their numbers would have been much worse. But overall their results were a failure.

    • You are right about Sweden Dan. I have been there, about 10 years ago, round about the time I 1st got interested in ice ages. For starters cycling is super popular. About twice as many bikes zooming past you as in the British towns. Winter sports also super popular, especially cross country skiing. People love the outdoors and even if you live and work in a big city you still might have a 2nd country home as a quiet retreat (nice place for me to sample aquavit LOL).
      If I looked hard enough I might find the obese but in general the image of a tall rugged blonde Viking serves you well LOL.

    • #1 is clearly wrong. All you have to do is look at pictures from Stockholm in 2020. Massive crowds of people out living life.

      #2 seems likely to be true.

      And your contention that the US “ignored” the pandemic is also clearly false. All you need to do is compare outcomes using any metric of the most locked down states like CA, NY or NJ to FL or SD to see that the lockdown states failed.

  6. “One day after receiving her first dose of Moderna’s COVID vaccine, Luz Legaspi, 72, woke up with bruises on her arms and legs, and blisters that bled inside her mouth.

    She was hospitalized in New York City that day, Jan. 19, with a severe case of immune thrombocytopenia — a lack of platelets, a blood component essential for clotting.

    “The same condition led to the death in January of Dr. Gregory Michael, 56, an obstetrician in Miami Beach whose symptoms appeared three days after he received the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine. Treatments failed to restore his platelets, and after two weeks in the hospital he died from a brain hemorrhage.”
    — NY Times

    What they are NOT telling you is that this condition occurs, although not so acutely, in children within a few months of the MMR vaccine.

  7. Denial of an obvious pandemic?

    There are many images around the net that show empty Hospitals and name them. Here in the UK we get ‘some Hospitals are like war zones’, unnamed of course.

    Flue and other respiratory diseases have apparently been conquered by by Covid.
    Virtually every death being reported as Corona, if you die carrying the virus that does not mean that’s what killed you.
    Overall death rate around normal with usual year on year fluctuations.
    Tests that are notoriously unreliable
    Masks that do nothing to prevent virus transmission.
    American Hospitals accruing huge financial gains for reporting deaths as Covid, no incentive for Fraud and manipulation there then.
    Thousands of Doctors around the World telling us this is a series of false claims about the nature of the claims and the efficacy of the vaccines.
    Which leads on to the fact it’s Genetic altering substances not a vaccine per se.

    Just a few points of the top of my head without even thinking about it. It’s like believing that CO2 drives climate it does not. If they are already lying and committing fraud on such a scale why would they not carry it through into public health issues, indeed any issue that makes them money and increases their ever tightening grip on the reins of power.

Comments are closed.