We could be at the doorsteps of another Ice Age

We could be at the doorsteps of another Ice Age

Solar cycle 24 showing signs that we could be entering a new Maunder minimum anytime soon.


We could be at the doorsteps of another Ice Age

By F. Guimaraes

Recent studies and observations indicate that we’re entering a phase of very low solar cycles. The present cycle C24 is already showing signs of being lower than C14 at the beginning of the XX century ( http://www.leif.org/research/Polar%20Fields%20and%20Cycle%2024.pdf
and http://www.leif.org/research/SC14-and-24.png ), and cycle C5 at the lower point of the Dalton minimum ( http://www.landscheidt.info/images/sc5_sc24.png ).

This means that C24 is showing signs that we could be entering a new Maunder minimum anytime soon.



The polar fields should have flipped at the end of cycle C23, around 2008-2009, but they continued with the same polarity, showing a stretched pattern ( http://www.leif.org/research/Solar-Polar-Fields-1966-now.png ) similar to what happened at the end of the 1960′s but more pronounced, which could lead to “break” of the field into a “quadripolar” mode very soon.

This is another indication of the very low intensity of the present cycle.

This low intensity could lead to a period of no sunspots as observed during the Maunder minimum between ~ 1640 to 1710 ( http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/2/28/Sunspot_Numbers.png ), which could be the realization of the so called “Livingston-Penn” effect, which predicts a similar phenomenon in the near future (
http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2008/06/livingston-penn_sunspots2.pdf
and http://www.leif.org/research/Livingston-Penn%20Data%20and%20Findings%20so%20far.pdf ).

Therefore, all the above and other analyzes (there is more, eg., the pattern of 90k-10k years characteristic of Glacial and Interglacial periods, etc.) indicate that the prediction of a “kill shot” from the Sun by Patrick Geryl and others, will not happen, quite the opposite: we could be at the doorsteps of another Ice Age.

When asked what he thought of the “kill shot” model during our times, Leif Svaalgard called it “sensationalism”.

Robert’s book “Not by Fire but by Ice” has it’s name for a reason. People are being lured to look in the wrong direction by MSM, IPCC and others, but the facts are very clear and show a completely different problem that humanity will have to face very soon.

A problem of much colder weather worldwide, not hotter.

 


49 thoughts on “We could be at the doorsteps of another Ice Age”

  1. Yeah and I do not need rocket science to work this one out! Anyone on the street will understand. Most of the scientists are scared to say anything and rather go day by day! I can also see by the erratic sunspot numbers we get that we are at the turning point of sc24 and anyone with a brain can see and understand that without being a scientist!
    It’s going to be: “We told you, didn’t we?”

    • “… I can also see by the erratic sunspot numbers we get that we are at the turning point of sc24…”
      That’s my impression too, and here
      http://www.westernusawx.info/forums/index.php?showtopic=33725&st=0
      the OP, called “Weather/Modern Day Galileo”, gives many good reasons why he also thinks along the same lines: we’ve just come from a long period (~70 years) of very strong solar cycles to plunge into what could be a new Maunder minimum and this combination of “extremes” could be the trigger of the new glacial period.

  2. “People are being lured in the wrong direction” — intentionally as it appears:
    I am getting bored. The globe can be getting warmer or colder, but the idea that the human contribution from burning carbon fuels has anything to do with it is not only IMHO the biggest political and intellectual fraud ever – but so says the IPCC itself: http://cleanenergypundit.blogspot.com/2011/10/west-is-facing-new-severe-recession.html. The ongoing discussion pro and con is becoming akin to the scholastic argument as to how many angels can dance on the head of a needle. Which is, of course, exactly what is intended, in order to achieve worldwide disorientation away from the actual IPCC aims of their monetary and energy policies – and bringing a whole discipline, if not all, of science into disrepute in the process. Even the UK Royal Society has become Lysenkoist.
    That’s not to belittle the effort by thousands of scientists fighting for the truth in climate research, but I dismay over the practical effect of diverting all this brain power in a direction not at all relevant to the IPCC’s actual and declared political and financial intentions – or more importantly: away from the actual work that needs doing.
    All IMHO, of course. My musings for what they may be worth on my various blogsite entries, and at http://www.lmhdesign.co.uk/sustainability.php and the ‘Planet’ page on that website.

  3. It might not be unusual but we have frost on the flat roof of the building where I live in Barrie, Ontario this morning. 103 weeks ago give or take a couple days we had snow. Robert has evidence of this in his archives. As for the little ice age it will be a challenge for humanity but for most it is not the end of the world. The thing to watch out for is a little ice age that might be the start of a big ice age just like the younger dryass was the last glaciation subcycle of the last big ice age. I am assuming that the big iceage follows a glaciation cycle pattern like a steep bell curve.

    Experience will be a cruel teacher but at least this time around we will be able to see and record what happens as little or big ice ages start.

    • Yes, and in the meantime I just watched the Weather Channel this morning and they’re predicting a massive heatwave to move across the US with temps 20 degrees above normal…

      • I’m sorry, but really??? On the doorstep of the next ice age??? NOT!!! In case you forgot, 2012 will be the year without a winter in the lower 48. Chicago recorded their warmest March in recent history, heat records were falling throughout February in Chicagoland. April was the warmest in 50 years in southeast Texas, and here in southeast Texas, A/C is becoming all important again as we are ascending near 90 again. Didn’t have a winter this year. This will undoubtedly be another extremely hot summer. The Gulf of Mexico water temperature is already near 80 degrees, and don’t forget, we already have a named tropical storm in the Pacific. I doubt we need to worry about an ice age…

        • Why does people only focus on the warm days and not the cold? This I find hard to understand, maybe a state of mind? If you do some research, you will see during the maunder minimum there was also the warmest recorded in Britain. But anyway time will tell!

        • Have you forgotten last year already? The US was unique in its ‘year without a winter’. This year may also be the year without a spring. As to temp records being broken as Robert posted earlier https://iceagenow.info/2012/05/u-s-529-record-lows-april/
          43 states recorded record lows in April. Britain is experiencing the coldest spring in 300 years.
          Also its important to remember we are in an ice age currently. We are just in a brief(11,000 years long +/-) warming period called an interglacial.

        • @Dale

          Caution, mate. It’s easy to get excited over local “weather” as opposed to global “climate”. Several years ago Warmists (of which I could have been included) would remind people of this. It’s not about the “weather”, it’s about “global climate”. The rule is actually reasonable – and it cuts both ways. A reason why I laugh when Warmists use local weather to support their contention, but do not allow it from “deniers” as they have come to call us (or “Deniar Liar” and “Carbon Criminal” if you read some of the enviro-political types).

          Hottest day in Melbourne, ever recorded, was 7th February 2009. Aka “Black Saturday”. People I went to school with lost their lives in the resulting wildfires, my sister lost her home and 21 of her neighbours.

          Warming proof? Nope.

          12th Jan 2012 we had snow on the some of the same mountain ranges.

          Proof of Cooling? Nope.

          *Both* are localized events. In the balance they merely form a component of the equation, not the whole.

        • Well, I’m all for anything that will cool us off down here in south Texas. We’ve just gone through two years without a winter and all they’re talking about now on the Weather Channel is how “HOT” it’s going to get from now on in the lower 48. So I tend to agree with Dale. With all this constant oppressive heat, I really can’t see where we’re on the doorstep of another ice age!

  4. meanwhile Nasa is press releasing stories about the solar cycle peak in 2013..
    more egg on face due them soon.

  5. There was a time a few hundred years ago when it was accepted that the earth was flat and was the center of the universe, and to suggest otherwise could result in your death. Now the computer models get twisted to show that humans cause the earth to warm even when the earth is cooling and to suggest otherwise makes you an idiot or a “deny-er” or freezes you out of academic funding. Scientists know more but they do not know everything and for the computer models: garbage in = garbage out.

    Most people go outside and feel warmth from the sun. If the sun is stronger, it radiates more heat. When its weaker it radiates less. I think it would be pretty cold here no matter how many smokestacks and SUV’s are running at full blast if there was no sun.

  6. I would certainly agree with this – with another snowstorm now in Bosnia and the snow lasting all day, (just a small example out of many)a devastating freeze over the Great Lakes and Ontario that completely devastated the grape growing areas, plus all-time ice cover in the Bering Sea and the Danube River freezing solid in Europe. Plus we’re also due for the other ice ages now also – including the 1,400 year ice age cycle, the 11,500 year ice age cycle and also the orbital stretch (eccentricity) major ice age.

    • I believe we know too little about the Sun, despite all our efforts since the XVII century, but one thing is strikingly evident from all these studies, i.e., the cyclic nature of the solar radiation and its obvious, direct influence on Earth’s climate, with scales from few years to many thousands of years.
      It seems that these very cycles are telling us that the new Ice Age is coming:
      “We are entering a bond event right now, the 8th event since the Holocene climate optimum, all interglacial periods terminate on either the 7th or 8th event relative to the 5th eccentricity cycle. This is where we are heading right now…”
      (link: http://www.westernusawx.info/forums/index.php?showtopic=33725&st=60&p=591851&#entry591851)
      and (in reference to Robert’s comment here)
      “all of the cycles are coming together.
      22yr Hale
      179yr barycentric
      1450yr Bond
      23,000yr precession
      25,800yr plane
      100,000yr ice age (when all solar-planetary cycles converge as they are now)…”
      (link: http://www.westernusawx.info/forums/index.php?showtopic=33725&st=80&p=592986&#entry592986)

      • Leif Svaalgard is one of the first to admit that very little is really known about the sun.

        He also theorises that during low sunspot activity such as what’s happening in solarcycle 24 that the sunspots are “actually there” they are just not visible.

        Sunspots are only one proxy of the suns activities. There are many other electromagnetic and other emissions that are measured over the solar cycle length. All of these readings are different to what has been observed previously – uncharted territory you could say. Because there is no scientific precedence for the current readings real future predictions are hard to come up with. Leif Svaarlgard is on a wait and see watch.

        My money is on the Russians. They are saying buy some thick coats.

        • “… All of these readings are different to what has been observed previously … ”
          By “previously” you mean “space age” observations? I like Leif Svaalgard’s comments and have read some of his pdfs, he’s open minded and that’s why I trust him more than other sources of “normal” astrophysics like NASA, etc.
          The problem I see in the present astrophysics models is the “solar dynamo” paradigm, it’s too poor a description IMO. No wonder, Leif says that we know too little about the Sun, although he uses the solar dynamo model.
          He’s being honest when he says that, and this is a rare good thing.

  7. Wayne D Im not Robert but I think the heat that going on in Texas and the warm winter in the usa this past winter.Is more about the current pattern and not about climate.Even doing a cooling periold and or a warming periold there will be varabitys in the jet streams.This while one location is cold another location maybe warmer then normal.So what your seeing is sort term patterns and not a real long term pattern.

    • Thanks Keith for responding to my post… I do hope we’ll begin seeing a change in this boring weather. I live just south of the Houston / NASA area and we’ve had for the most part nothing but hot, dry and tranquil weather. This has been going on for many years now and I was beginning to wonder what had happened to all the arctic outbreaks like the ones we used to have during those winters of a few decades ago.

  8. It is already mid may and here in Holland its still cold and windy. When does summer arrive? Every evening I turn my heater on. Is a new Ice Age really lurking?Hope not, but fear it is.

  9. How cause ice age by sunspots solar cycle 24 weak? How many peak number sunspots when? Drop temp worldwide now???

  10. I looked for today may 17th sunspots of 122. When they say the current cycle is lame, can anyone tell me with this current cycle what should be the number of sunspots..??.. Should it be closer to a thousand? Just wondering..

    • Eric

      To compare sunspot numbers you need to compare like with like. Numbers measured during the Dalton minimum were counted using inferior telescopes to those used today so they missed a lot of the small ones that NOAA and SIDC count today. Go visit Beyond Landscheidt (Layman’s Sunspot Count)at (link:http://www.landscheidt.info/)for a full rundown.

    • The Layman’s Sunspot Count of Geoff Sharp gives an average ssn count of around ~ 30 or less for May 18 and the days before.
      See here
      http://www.landscheidt.info/?q=node/50
      and more specifically
      http://www.landscheidt.info/images/sc5_sc24.png
      the comparison of S24 (present) with S5 (Dalton minimum).
      The radiation of S24, as indicated by the ssn count, is already below that of S5. For this very reason -if the present trend continues- we could already consider the present grand minimum as comparable to the Maunder one. (IMO)
      If you look at the ssn count of wikipedia
      http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/2/28/Sunspot_Numbers.png
      you’ll see that the Maunder minimum had a relatively high spike just prior to the beginning of the minimum itself and this aspect it is different from the Dalton minimum and also the strong minimum of the beginning of the XX century.
      Our present cycle C24 also had a “strong spike” of the cycles C21, C22 and C23 and in this respect too it resembles more the evolution of the Maunder minimum than the Dalton one.
      We must see now if the trend continues.

    • Well, why on this site have they been saying 3 sunspots for the last week or so and you saw somewhere there were 122 on May 17th? So where did you get this information and how can there be such a big difference in this type of an observation?

      • There are many different measures for the so called “solar activity” and ssn count, one of them is the F10.7 radio flux which is considered a good proxy for the ssn count. The values of F10.7 radio flux are much higher though than the ssn count itself, for example, last April 10 and 11 we had two consecutive spotless days, ssn=0, but the F10.7 radio flux was around 94. Presently, the ssn count is ~ 30 or less and the F10.7 flux is ~ 130.
        Geoff Sharp’s blog has all the details
        http://www.landscheidt.info/?q=node/50

      • Wayne I saw the sunspot count on the radiowave propagation center. It gives what they say is current sunspot numbers..

  11. Wayne D. what you’re referring to is short term, glacial periods are long term. So in other words, it’s been getting colder as a whole globally, despite these brief (but strong) warm shots in select areas of the planet. and will continue to do so in the long term… but how long we don’t know. Some glacial periods come suddenly, as in a few decades, others could take hundreds of years or thousands. that is nature for ya, the cycles are not always exactly the same. just like the weather changes from day to day, the climate changes from many years to many years.

    • I also appreciate your response Joe. Just as I’d responded to Keith’s message I was saying that I hope we’ll see a change in this boring weather down here. We’re just south of the Houston / NASA area and have had mostly nothing but hot, dry and tranquil weather for several years now. And I was also wondering what had happened to the arctic outbreaks that we used to get during the winters from decades past.

  12. Thanks Robert, for bringing my little comment to the spotlight.
    It may have many flaws, as the discussion will probably show, but it was a honest summary of how I see the events that are happening now. Thank you!:-)

  13. I think our atmosphere has codensed. Solar wind is now getting through the fluctuations in our weakening earth magnetic field. Mutations I have Never seen before in fast growing veg plants an tropical plants are showing up. I have sprouts on a spider plant that are 1 1/2 inches wide and ribbon like. The normal sprout is no thicker than a coffee cup straw. I fear we are all going to see strang and horrible things soon…

  14. if the Sun will switch to an Maunder minimun, how much time will take until Earth will cool down? like several years, or … ?

    • I believe it’ll be quick, in 1-2 years we’ll have general climate of the times of pre-warming (first half of the XX century up to the 60’s). I say that because the glaciers are already rebounding at a fast pace and showing great promptness to solar radiation, both in the north and south poles.
      I believe the Sun may bring some important surprises until the end of this year, but of course the mountain high glaciers will not form in a few months.
      We’ll have some time to prepare.

    • Russian and Chinese scientists have theorised that the serious cooling should start post 2025 and last for two cycles – based on past solar/cool period observations

      • Yes, this is reasonable, but they’re probably not considering the possibility of a new Maunder minimum beginning now or in the next few years.
        If this happens, I think the cooling will be much faster. The majority of people that are talking about a new grand minimum now usually presume it to be similar to the Dalton minimum (specially in connction with the Solar Inertial Motion (SIM) models
        http://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/1005/1005.5303.pdf
        and the Wolf-Gleissberg cycles
        http://www.virtualacademia.com/pdf/cli267_293.pdf
        ) but I think we already have evidence that it could be deeper than that.

    • That’s just what I’ve been asking. If the Sun switches to a Maunder minimum, how long is it going to take for the Earth to cool down? If the answer is until the end of this century or even 30 more years, especially down here in Texas, than most of us will probably be dead by then. I know I probably will!!!

  15. I think now there are no more doubts about what the main cause of glaciation is. Obviously I am convinced that this is not all due to a single factor but a number of reasons. However I believe the importance of solar activity exceed 50%.

    About my mails: I do not understand why my provider is unable to contact juno.com. Just a question: Creating an e-mail account with juno.com is free?

  16. New Zealand had snow down to 30m in the last couple of days. This is the earliest snow since 1997.

  17. first the warmingnistas now we have the ice agers..i remember this ice age nonsense bakc in the 70’s. Let’s get the warmingistas and ice agers in the same roon then maybe we’ll get some logical thought on the climate.

    • Warmistas / Iceagers

      the problem is that warming would be pretty well entirely beneficial for the planet whereas even a small amount of cooling would be disastrous for mankind.

      The politicos have been sold a warming apocalypse and it just isn’t happening. The western world is not preparing for the real disaster, but is bankrupting itself on the basis of a myth.

  18. Hi, am the physicist (Weather) referenced in the westernusawx.info links.

    I have been watching this unfold for some time and indeed change appears to be right around the corner though we are still in the ‘ringing’ period right now.

    To put it simply, Ice ages are started by a chaotic shutdown/re-organization of global heat pumps/the circulatory state(example the Hadley Cell/related Walker circulation), initiated by a complicated plasma-electric process involving magnetism and the global charge field…so in truth it is both a solar and celestial forcing process. The process of global angular momentum shift starts in the stratosphere as the solar wind & geomagnetic field strength/pole rate of perturbation drives variations in the AAM, hence ENSO and everything else really.

    Geologic processes such as volcanism/earthquakes tie into this but are a result of tidal resonances much like the ocean tides we see..we think that they are too strong to be induced gravitationally but think..I shake a flagpole..initially it doesn’t move much but if I continue with the same beat harmonic I can break the flagpole. Blunt forcing means nothing it is *rate of change* that means everything. When you disrupt a rhythmic system state you force a re-organization of the energy flow to restore equilibrium..we’re not talking ‘losing’ energy just differing conversions altering the thermal result..

    Example, imagine global circulation magically stops..what happens? The poles cool dramatically while the tropical thermal-spatial profile goes into overload hence convection erupts constantly and we lose a ton of heat via cloud cover blanketing the tropics.

    This is why the global circulatory state means so much and it is also why ‘consensus’ scientists are
    scared to discuss the geomagnetic field/solar wind relationship to ENSO/the circulation state.

    DECREASE GLOBAL WINDS BY 0.01M/s you lose enough energy to equate to 7.4W/m^2 of RF (doubling CO2 twice). This process is measured via the AAM index. Might want to think how on a matter of days we see large variations in the AAM. The global energy budget includes more than just the thermal portion and it is ignored.

    When it comes to climate, it’s just this:
    -The solar wind
    -The geomagnetic field strength
    -The rate of change of the magnetic poles

    These three forcings are the king of climate.

    • Hi Phil, thanks for coming here to talk to us! Your explanations make a lot of sense IMO and I keep linking your comments of the other blog here!:-)
      The first “king” of the climate (solar wind) seems clear, because it’s basically the sum of all radiation coming from the Sun (energy conservation). The second could influence the absorption/reflection of the energy from the first, and also affect cloud formation (right?).
      But the 3rd is not very clear, is it because of the ang. mom. of the interplanetary field itself?
      Also, what if we consider that the inteplanetary field is “forced” by the inter-stellar field from the neighborhood of the solar system during long periods. This could be part of the explanation of the cycles of long periodicity like the Ice Ages, and the smaller cycles that happen within them, don’t you think?
      Thanks!

      • Pretty much correct.

        -The solar wind represents the flux of stellar plasma (charged particles) that interact with both the Earth’s own magnetic sea and also with O3 (Ozone) in the upper atmosphere to alter the global circulatory state.

        – The geomagnetic field strength is important because it defines the response gradient to solar perturbation. The Ionosphere is very reactive right now (in both vectors) as the geomagnetic field continues to weaken. Once the northern magnetic pole crosses the geographic pole and begins heading south again towards Siberia (Earth’s electrojet flow striations and it’s rotation) we’ll head into the next ice age which should be well underway and almost full blown by 2020-2025.

        – The Earth’s magnetic poles and their rate & direction of motion are very important because they determine everything in terms of entrance/exit flow behavior which takes place at the poles..this process is very complicated but CANNOT be overlooked! This is the definition of how the North/South Annular modes are run! These drive everything we know in climate..ENSO, the AO/AAO, AAM, AMO,PDO, cloud cover, the Hadley Cells, etc.

        Cheers 🙂

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