Dr. Fauci Concedes the Coronavirus Mortality Rate May Be Much Closer to a Very Bad Flu

The case fatality rate is far, far lower than we’ve been lead to believe.


On Thursday Dr. Fauci co-authored a report on the coronavirus in the New England Journal of Medicine.

The report, entitled “Covid-19 — Navigating the Uncharted”, was co-authored by Anthony S. Fauci, M.D., H. Clifford Lane, M.D., and Robert R. Redfield, M.D.

Here’s a direct quote from that report:

“If one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported cases, the case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%. This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively.2

Please note that the case fatality rate is not ten percent, not five percent, not even one percent, but far, far lower than that.

According to the authors, the case fatality rate is only 0.1 percent (only one-tenth of one percent).

Are we willing to destroy America over a bad case of the flu?

See report in the New England Journal of Medicine:

Thanks to Stephen Bird for this link

46 thoughts on “Dr. Fauci Concedes the Coronavirus Mortality Rate May Be Much Closer to a Very Bad Flu”

  1. The whole of Europe is destroying itself over this.

    I think the long game is abolition of all fiat currency, abolition of cash and forcible imposition of solely online/digital currency mechanisms.

  2. Simple mathematics.
    Today, 27th March.
    Italy has 9000+ deaths out of 86000 confirmed cases. Around 10.5%
    UK has 750 cases out of 14500 conformed cases. Around 5%.
    That’s not 0.1 %

  3. For information:

    Dr. Fauci is the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) since 1984. Since January 2020, he has been one of the lead members of the White House Coronavirus Task Force addressing the 2019–20 coronavirus pandemic in the United States.

    For more info on Dr. Fauci, see:

  4. Not only destroying the USA but Europe and the U.K
    This is the first time in pandemic history the world has gone into lockdown

  5. To answer your rhetorical question, “Yes, probably” A lot of people are willing to destroy the country if that’s what it takes to prevent Trump from being re-elected and to transform our political and economic system into something they approve of, more like that of Venezuela or China. Look no further than the Democratic governors of more and more states who are banning the use of chloroquine to treat people suffering from the virus. Better to let sick people die than try a generally safe drug, approved for other uses but not yet blessed by the FDA for this illness. The real danger is that it MIGHT work, and if it proved to be effective, might put a fairly early end to the epidemic, which is what those governors apparently fear. Why else deny the drug to a dying patient? They can only die once.

    • i was on this drug for over 8 years for arthritis related problems,had ZERO problems! the only thing is for people who take it long term like i did,you have to have your eyes checked once a year for a slight chance of nerve damage which never happened,and by the way i was taking 16 other meds at the same time,with zero problems.

  6. The BIG problem is in most countries there are not real, accurate and complete records for how many people are (or have been) infected. It is known that many infected people show no symptoms (especially the young) — how many are (were) infected (?), well that’s anybody’s guess.
    The S. Korea has come closest to tracking the majority of infected people (and their contacts) in the population but even then they have missed a few, as evidenced by the cases from unknown sources appearing every once in a while.
    So from what and where are all those figures and statistics the MSM loves to scare you with? Mostly they are from computer models. Model programs that use modified statistics from diseases like flu epidemic figures.
    Is corona virus infection/mortality rate like the flu virus? Well that is one heck of an assumption.
    Discounting all people with other complication from prior known conditions —
    How many people are, or have been, infected?
    How many are seriously ill just because of this virus alone?
    What is the true mortality rate for just this virus?
    There are only 2 properties to realise —

    1/ Just about everyone worldwide will catch this virus.
    2/ Despite having no natural immunity from this virus, most
    Western populations appear NOT to know when they are infected because they have be negligible symptoms. This is especially true of the young and very young.
    What is known is that if you are part of a large community with many heavy smokers, living in high density cities with very poor air quality, poor food and personal sanitation, then you are more likely to succumb to the worst effects of the virus.
    The key to getting the best response to this virus is to slow it’s rate of infection (by individual isolation) thereby gaining time for better (and cheaper?) treatments to become available — thus minimising the mortality rate.

    What to do —
    Help slow the infection rate by keep yourself well, by hand washing, and by limiting your exposure by self isolation, and keeping yourself away (minimum of 2 meters or 6 feet) from others when you have to go out.
    Apparently keeping levels of vitamins D, C, and the mineral Zinc up can help fight off viral infections.

    Live long and prosper 🙂

  7. The ‘case’ in case fatality refers to people who are sick enough to go to a doctor.

    In many flus the vast majority of infected people do no more than spend a few days in bed and afterwards are fine.

    So the fatality rate of infected people is a fraction of the case fatality rate which the piece reports at 1 in a 1000.

  8. One thing to consider regardless of the final estimates of fatality is the revelation of just how sorry the country’s preparedness is for a pandemic. Raw fact is that sooner or later a disease, most likely an influenza, will spread just as COVID has. It WILL have a high fatality rate. Currently what we see is that technology has as yet offered no preventions or cures. This is not reassuring and in a climate that turns colder could be catastrophic. We can consider COVID as a fire drill, and the indications that if the house burns down, the escape routes are not well marked.

    Also, and very oddly, it seems the average civilized person’s first consideration was to buy more toilet paper. Even more strangely it seems that upon discovering that toilet paper was unavailable, people then made a run on bidets.

    The focus on what to gather has shifted reassuringly for the continued existence of the human race. Some realistic people have started buying out started vegetables and seeds from home centers. That at least makes sense in terms of survival, and even maintaining their bank balance during the coming year (at least) since planting has been crippled.

  9. Dunno, I downloaded this article Mar. 16 and the linked article is dated Mar. 26.

    Both state that at the bottom:

    “This editorial was published on February 28, 2020, at NEJM.org.”

    So the article was up on the internet earlier and now has just been published or something like that.


  10. What I think would be very useful information is follow ups on those younger people who have died allegedly with no underlying illness. Rapid post mortems should be carried out to find out. I am sure the information would help those looking for vaccines or treatments. The other missing information is do people in these age groups ever die of influenza? This may be the case and it never makes the news and the lame media is too incompetent to research this as opposed to printing scary articles.

    • I am most concerned not about the mortality rate but about the exponential rate of growth of mortalities.

  11. It may take a little more time before governments come to their senses. The idea of breaking the chain of transmission was good but it seems like it was pushed to an extreme.

    • Great point. Shut down the economy for the plague – not a slightly stronger cold. If we do this every time from now on society will fall apart.

      Also – we hear these hysterical news facts that we never hear with the normal flu. If we had news reports – Another 500 people died last night in the USA of the flu, officials deam this to be of crisis proportions. We would all be in a panic as well – even though this is normal average.

  12. Im not great with stats but damned near 1k people dying in one day in an area of italy seems a hell of a lot higher than any standard flu causes

    • They’re old, smokers and have 3 – 4 pre-existing conditions as their underlying cause of pneumonia. The virus may well just be
      a “passenger” and have nothing to do with why they got pneumonia or died.
      Statistics show there are no more pneumonia deaths in Italy than there was last from the seasonal flu and old people with lousy immune systems. They have never be taught how to make it bullet proof with nutritional supplements.

  13. I wonder if this will get picked up by the msm. Once you have this panic started how do you stop it? A lot of people could have egg on their face over this. Will anyone have the guts to admit they were wrong?

  14. One thing that has become abundantly clear through this pandemic, and that is that most people would prefer to have a wrong answer than no answer at all.

    It is too soon to determine the ultimate fatality rate of this virus, because that figure is greatly dependent upon whether or not health systems become overwhelmed, and people are left to die who might have been saved because of insufficient numbers of ventilators, medical personnel, etc.

    A remarkable number of people are displaying a childishly emotional response to this pandemic–“I want it NOW!”–instead of the patient and reasonable response that one would expect of logical, scientific minds who are aware that no accurate conclusions can be reached until all the data has been gathered.

    We will never know the death rate of this virus until it is finished circulating through the human population of this planet.

    So STOP trying to make it what you want it to be.

    • You nailed it, Deb. What part of “novel” do people not understand? Asymptomatic children with ground glass lungs. Hypoxia. Testicular damage. Pneumonia without immunity. The just-the-flu-bro crowd is just as dangerous as the sky-is-falling crowd. The truth probably lies somewhere in the middle.
      Meanwhile in NOLA, hospitals are overwhelmed and that means those regular patients with heart attacks and injuries from car crashes won’t get attended to in the ER.

      We won’t know the true danger of this virus for YEARS (if ever!) Those of us that believe the ice man is coming should do what? Ignore Robert’s warnings? Do so at your own peril! Same rules apply.

      • quote: “What part of “novel” do people not understand? ”

        What novel are you talking about? I’ve read a lot of novels.:-)

  15. “According to the authors, the case fatality rate is only 0.1 percent (only one-tenth of one percent).”
    The article actually says “considerably lower than 1%” and that evidence “suggests” that consequences may be “more akin to” seasonal flu at .1% OR a pandemic flu (what is that rate? .2%? ,4%?) than SARS or MERS (9 to 10%, 36%). It certainly does not say the case fatality rate is .1%, it says the CFR “may” be closer to .1% or .2% or .4% than it is to 9% to 36%. If the CFR is .8% then that would be consistent with everything Fauci said. The lowest observed rate so far is .8% in Germany.

  16. yes… the liberal mandarins in the West are quite happy to destroy America, and COVID-19 is as good an excuse as any for them. This isn’t surprising or new. Up till now they’ve been trying to do so with far time-line excuses like climate change (10, 20, 100 years) or mineral depletion, equally futuristic. Now they’ve latched onto something they can wield in the here and now… and they’re pummeling the west, and no one is holding them accountable. That is the problem… no one holds modern liberals accountable.

    • Holding liberals accountable,what a novel idea. Who besides fascist dictators or god would dare give it a try?

  17. Why do people hate Trump. Let’s open this country up. He has this under control. I trust him more than anyone or anything.

  18. Best comment so far………..”is the UK a banana republic run by the editor of the daily mail”:

  19. The corona virus ultimately will go down as the foremost fart in a hurricane in human history, bar done. The mortality rate is far less than many other pathogens, including yellow fever, small-pox, polio, cholera, etc. This is but a blip on the national radar.

  20. Some people put the economy first…Some the welfare of others first…The problem we have is, All the way one way or the other ends Badly. I’m glad it’s not my decision. There are so many unknowns with Covid-19 that no single individual anywhere knows how this whole thing will play out. The Common Cold is a Corona Virus, like Covid-19 and gives a few months of immunity. Sars -1 another Corona Virus, shows antibodies for over 2 years but still doesn’t assure immunity. So, considering we’ve been looking for an immunization for the Common Cold, almost forever, where does that put us?..Will there ever really be Herd Immunity either??? To get there 70-80% of the US population needs to catch it and even at a1% case fatality rate a couple of million deaths would occur at some point in the future … A research paper out of Iceland shows they have identified 40 mutations and can even tell what Countries some came from. So if a Major mutation occurs, there will not likely be a vaccine either…Covid-19 can be stopped by simply testing everyone, along with quarantining everyone around the infected…And putting Everyone in a Mask…Unfortunately, Nobody was ready for this Pandemic, even though there was always a good chance of one, in our very connected world. So all that’s really left is to balance deaths against the economy…As I’ve said before, how many of us old folks do we sacrifice to save the Economy…I don’t see any way around it at this point, unless we mobilize mass manufacturing of masks to go along with massive testing and wipe this horrifically contagious thing out permanently…

  21. there are many videos on youtube of this deep state agent saying there will be a pandemic during the current administration- he said this in 2017.

    I don’t trust a word that comes out of his yap.

  22. I’m no epidemiologist but the bottom line is, simple math and discernment (I hope) shows we’re risking economic collapse when it’s clear the COVID mortality rate in the worst off country, Italy, is within range, or no worse than this season’s American flu mortality rate when comparing apples to apples, if the CDC range estimates for this season are to be believed, over which no one panics with insane reactions and policies.

    This is just looking at numbers, regardless how each country is handling the pandemic.

    Prior to the COVID panic the CDC reported over 100 children died (ACTUAL INSTANCES) from the flu this season. No collective panic and economic destruction. I didn’t even know about it.

    Poke holes, if there are any. I include source links at bottom.

    1) *Less than 1/8* of reported COVID deaths have *direct COVID causality*. Prof Walter Ricciardi, “scientific adviser” to Italy’s minister of health, says “On re-evaluation by the National Institute of Health, only 12 per cent of death certificates have shown a direct causality from coronavirus, while 88 per cent of patients who have died have at least one pre-morbidity – many had two or three”. Source at bottom.

    *2)* Italian Civil Protection chief Angelo Borrelli estimates the number of infections in the population is *10x the number of confirmed cases*. Source at bottom.

    – There are 92K known COVID cases in Italy. Per Borrelli above, this means there are as many as 920K people infected in Italy. The second oldest population on earth, unhealthy, low vit D (source at bottom), heavy smokers who live with their younger family members.

    – There are 10K reported COVID deaths in Italy. Per the above, 1,200 deaths have direct causality from COVID.


    = 1,200 deaths with direct COVID causality / 920K estimated cases
    = 0.13% COVID mortality rate in Italy. None of this 10% mortality rate garbage. Compare that to a 0.1% flu mortality rate in the US.

    Is this a reason to risk economic destruction? Looks like the solution is to lock up the old and infirm, quarantine the sick, bring in the Chinese to build massive temporary hospitals and help with the care, and the rest of us go back to work and continue the economy. Otherwise, when the fragile economy is destroyed, health care will not exist either.

    Interesting excerpts:

    Regarding how COVID deaths are tallied in Italy:

    – But Prof Ricciardi added that Italy’s death rate may also appear high because of how doctors record fatalities.

    “The way in which we code deaths in our country is very generous in the sense that all the people who die in hospitals with the coronavirus are deemed to be dying of the coronavirus.

    “On re-evaluation by the National Institute of Health, only 12 per cent of death certificates have shown a direct causality from coronavirus, while 88 per cent of patients who have died have at least one pre-morbidity – many had two or three,” he says.

    – This does not mean that Covid-19 did not contribute to a patient’s death, rather it demonstrates that Italy’s fatality toll has surged as a large proportion of patients have underlying health conditions. Experts have also warned against making direct comparisons between countries due to discrepancies in testing.

    – But there are other factors that may have contributed to Italy’s fatality rates, experts say. This includes a high rate of smoking and pollution – the majority of deaths have been in the northern region Lombardy region, which is notorious for poor air quality.


    Regarding child flu deaths:


    Regarding estimated number of infected in Italy:

    – Health chief Angelo Borrelli said it was ‘credible’ that 640,000 could be infected

    – Testing for the coronavirus has often been limited to those seeking hospital care

    – Italy’s tally of coronavirus cases is probably ten times higher than the official figure of 64,000, the head of the agency collecting the data said today.

    Angelo Borrelli said it was ‘credible’ to suggest that as many as 640,000 people could have been infected, because only a fraction of them have received the necessary tests.


    Regarding what actually brought the COVID numbers down in Wuhan:

    – The latest data from Hubei province, where the virus emerged, suggests this is also the policy that has brought the virus under control there. China is now ending its lockdowns, gradually, with no surge in disease. And a recent study by scientists at Huazhong and Harvard universities, based on data from more than 30,000 cases in Wuhan, suggests that although the lockdown and a traffic ban slowed the virus, it was not enough to stop the epidemic from growing. What really brought the numbers down was the decision to introduce targeted quarantines. All suspected cases went to hotels and all confirmed cases went to in-field hospitals, where they could be monitored. Only the most severe were then transferred to real hospitals.


    Regarding low vit D in Italy:

    – Therefore, based on the previous considerations it could be hypothesized that low vitamin D could be the link between age, comorbidities and increased susceptibility to complications and mortality due to Covid19 infection in the northern regions in Italy.

    – Two other further general considerations may contribute to the argument of contribution of low vitamin D to the impact of Covid19: a) in severely compromised patients: patients with acute illness, whether they are in the intensive care unit or not, have very low levels of 25(OH)vitaminD (11) Moreover, some authors think that poor vitamin D status may aggravate the health outcome of ICU patients and correction with (high doses) of vitamin D of poor vitamin D status could decrease morbidity and mortality (12); b) in general population: home confinement is the most used preventive measure against the spreading of Covid19 infection in many Countries and in Italy in particular. Total absence of sunlight exposure may cause in large part also of the younger population a decrease or worsening in the vitamin D status. (13)


  23. Relatives are now reconsidering the ‘flu’ they got in beginning or halfway december 2019. The symptoms were what has been called now ‘covid19’. They aren’t connected or related to any chinese from Wuhan then. It is asumed that it first appeared in Wuhan in dec. 2019. But why only there? Now it is cold overhere.

  24. Does anyone here remember POLIO? That is… where you alive before they had the first polio vaccinations (1954)?

    I am 69 now but was 4 years old when they had the first vaccinations available for polio, and I remember well standing in a long, long line for hours (I had to pee bad but my mom would not let me get out of the line to go and I was afraid I would go in my panties). The shot hurt, but I got a green lollipop after I got it.

    I remember also before the shot … me and the kids on my street (mostly my cousins) playing “polio” (a reaction kids have to being scared is to make up games related to what you were scared of). I remember our mothers were so scared of the disease … which by then had hit and at least paralyzed a few kids in nearly every town near us. The “game” we made up was taking twigs and drawing “braces” on our legs and then hobbling around on fake “crutches” we made with tree branches. We would get holy hell and a good spanking whenever we got caught doing it.

    My family also for my entire childhood practiced “social distancing”. I thought it was just that we were weird because my father hated crowds, but now that I’m thinking of it… that’s what it was. My dad was a firefighter and sometimes drove the ambulance, so he’d seen sick kids during the polio epidemic.

    At first no one knew how polio was transmitted, and my parents believed in a theory that it was passed along by water. So we were not allowed to go any place like a public pool or the beach even when people would be around. Instead we’d go camp over night on the beach Saturday night around sunset… then get up early in the morning and leave as soon the fishermen starting coming. We also sometimes would go to a little park early Sunday morning when other families were at church… we’d have a breakfast “picnic” and then play on the slides and swings, but as soon as other families arrived we’d leave.

    I also never got to go to a circus or anything like that as a kid because of my parents fears of us catching polio or some other nasty disease.

  25. Progressive totals today for fatalities and recovered about 35 000 and 140 000, respectively. Ignore the infected totals, we don’t know yet how many of those will die or recover.
    Current mortality rate = 35 000/(35 000 + 140 000) = 20%. This rate is increasing.
    Don’t compare Covid with Flu. I don’t bother to consult a doctor for flu. Total reported flu cases are probably far below total infected each year. Covid deaths are only for a fraction of a year so far.

    • Hear ! Hear ! Covid-19 is NOT FLU !!
      Of course the rate is increasing. This pandemic is only just STARTING ! I don’t believe China for one minute ! They MUST have more deaths than they admit.
      Italy, Spain and New York should be warning enough for ANYONE! Don’t belittle the risks ! Keep self-isolated from others.
      This could well explode once it spreads across the Indian sub-continent and Africa.

  26. I heard or read, somewhere (probably Lew Rockwell’s site), that Dr. Fauci probably submitted this paper months ago, so he knew then that this thing wasn’t as bad as most people think.

    Also, from the same source, compare the paper to what he testified to Congress a scant two or three weeks ago.

    Was he lying in the paper, or was he lying to Congress?

  27. Two young female doctors in their Thirties died today, of coronavirus caught from patients. This is MORE DANGEROUS than some of you claim.
    Some death rates are low, because it is early days.
    BEWARE!! This is NOT FLU ! If you catch this, you don’t know how you’ll be affected………..until it’s TOO LATE !!

    We need doctors , epidemiologists and chemists from ALL OVER THE WORLD to work together,to POOL their knowledge and get a vaccine ready as soon as possible !

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