El Niño activity correlates with ice ages

Here’s another  important study showing that El Niño activity correlates with ice ages.

The authors* found that a shift toward cooler conditions during the Little Ice Age was concurrent with an increase in the frequency of El Niño events. This is contrary to what is generally predicted by climate models, where cooling leads to less El Niño activity and warming leads to more.

The findings were harmonious with El Niño history in both South America and the Nile region, which depict “increased El Niño activity during the period of the Little Ice Age and decreased El Niño activity during the Medieval Warm Period.

This goes along with what I’ve been saying for years – that today’s increase in El Niño activity is the precursor to an ice age.

We’ve forgotten that this isn’t the first time our seas have warmed. Sea temperatures also shot upward 10º to 18ºF just prior to the last ice age.

As the oceans warmed, evaporation increased. The excess moisture then fell to the ground as giant blizzards, giant storms and floods (Noah’s Deluge type floods), and a new ice age began.

The same thing is happening today.

It’s not global warming, it’s ocean warming, and humans have nothing to do with it. Our seas are being heated, I believe, by underwater volcanic activity.


See also:

* Meyerson, Mayewski, et al. (Annals of Glaciology 35: 430-436.)

13 thoughts on “El Niño activity correlates with ice ages”

  1. Unfortunately, by the time your premise about heating from underwater volcanoes is forcedly accepted then it will be too late to take action to save most of the large mammals including man.

  2. Magnetic change in the Sun causing increased volcanism in the Earth….most of which is covered by oceans. “Global Warming” from the Sun not CO2.

    I’m so happy not being a liberal democrat living a lie to get more government hand-outs from a carbon tax.

  3. Robert, the first link didn’t work, returned a 404. But here is something similar, If not the same, from that site: http://www.co2science.org/articles/V6/N34/C1.php
    El Niño Activity and Sea-Ice Extent in a South Pole Ice Core
    What was learned
    Among other things, the authors noted a shift at about 1800 towards generally cooler conditions. This shift was concurrent with an increase in the frequency of El Niño events in the ice core proxy record, which is contrary to what is generally predicted by climate models, where cooling generally leads to less El Niño activity and warming leads to more (Timmermann et al., 1999). On the other hand, the authors’ findings were harmonious with the historical El Niño chronology of both South America (Quinn and Neal, 1992) and the Nile region (Quinn, 1992), which depict “increased El Niño activity during the period of the Little Ice Age (nominally 1400-1900) and decreased El Niño activity during the Medieval Warm Period (nominally 950-1250),” as per Anderson (1992) and de Putter et al., 1998).

  4. So I imagine at some point, after the atmosphere dumps all that moisture as snow, the oceans have to cool. I can’t imagine the oceans being as warm as they are now well into the next ice age. At the beginning, yes, but after about a thousand years, no. After that – there’ll be massive droughts.

  5. What amazes me is that alarmist climate scientists do not see El-Nino as an event which will lead to subsequent cooling.

    Surely a warmer atmosphere will reduce the amount of “heat” released whilst a cooler atmosphere will kinda suck the “heat” out.

    The oceans drive both of these due to a significantly larger mass and mass density.

    From what I understand El-Nino events result in release of stored energy in the oceans as “heat” to the atmosphere. This causes short term “global warming” – hottest year on record sort of stuff.

    Subsequently this elevated atmospheric temperature results in an increase in Earth’s radiation to space lasting some years and leads to cooling.

    Look at the Nimbus satellite graph here :- http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/Nimbus/nimbus2.php

    Every El-Nino flagged on the graph represents a significant spike in radiation to space from the years immediately preceding it and everyone knows something that is hotter radiates more powerfully. Also every peak is followed by a sharp decline which can only be attributed to cooling of the atmosphere as the “excess” energy is lost through IR to space.

    La-Nina on the other hand appears to be an “equalizer” – storing excess energy in the biggest energy sink on Earth which have also cooled somewhat – the oceans.

    The oceans have the capacity to store more energy after losing some via an El-Nino event and atmospheric temperatures will drop somewhat until the system is “full” again. La-Nina events are followed by gradual warming in the oceans and slow warming in the atmosphere which shows in the graph as increasing radiation to space.

    The “full” level may well be determined by the state of the Sun in its cycles and other astronomical variables but it seems the capacity of water to absorb energy is a major controlling factor – the Sun simply supplies the driving energy and this may well vary – but it also certainly does vary due to cloud cover.

    Something as large as Earth’s climate system is likely to take a long time to react – I just hope we are not on a trend towards serious cooling no matter how much I want to see the end of the CO2 driven global warming scam.

    • When I said “La-Nina on the other hand appears to be an “equalizer” – storing excess energy in the biggest energy sink on Earth which have also cooled somewhat – the oceans. ” – I meant that after the release of energy during an El-Nino the oceans will be cooler than immediately before the event.

      I do not imply the oceans are cooling over a long time frame – I have no idea what is occurring in this scenario because I no longer trust the “record keepers” to tell the truth.

      And obviously Robert is right about undersea volcanic activity being the “elephant in the room”.

      We may well ignore it at our peril and foolishly believe in something that defies most of the science I ever learnt – the ‘back radiative greenhouse effect”.

      We should learn to adapt to better agricultural methods and indoor agriculture would solve either problem – cooling and drought or heat and drought.

  6. The last 4 true El Nino’s occurred 1977-1978, 1982-1983, 1993-1994 and 1997-1998 ! All four of those El Nino’s occurred during a warming trend (1977 thru 1998) and was (has been) followed by a cooling trend (1999-present), that’s why (or called lull) there has been no warming since!!

    To say that global cooling brings forth El Nino’s is false information and does not stand up to observations/facts !!!

    That said, here in Southern California (So far) we have been experiencing a monsoonal flow not seen since the Summer of 1997 (The beginning of El Nino 1997-1998) and it seems very much so that a strong El Nino is building in the Eastern Pacific Ocean.

    Notice that the freezing of the Great Lakes in Winters 2013-2014 and 2014-2015 and the current ice extent of Hudson Bay 2014 to present occurred without El Nino’s (It could be said that a El Nino like effect definitively occurred in the Northeastern Pacific during last Winter 2014-2015 sending powerful Winter Storms into British Columbia and Southwest Alaska which is/was unprecedented/odd. Washington and Oregon reported some of the warmest coastal waters ever recorded Winter 2014-2015 and during December, Northern California had some of the largest rainfall amounts ever recorded!)

    El Nino will soon be few-and-far between (As it has been since 1997-1998) and if anything unequivocally “proves” the falsehood of Global Warming, the lack of El Nino’s proves the opposite as does the lack of Hurricanes!!

    Enjoy the building El Nino 2015-2016 because if all warming quickly diminishes, El Nino is about to take a 30 to 40 year vacation and if so, California had better get accustomed to the word “Severe” drought…

    Rick – Amateur Meteorologist
    Southern California

    • El Nino is a reduction in energy transfer across the pacific from a reduction in trade winds, it is logical to assume that a reduction in incoming energy will lead to longer periods of El Nino which is just a return to natural averaging balance of ocean temps. El Nino is a relative event, thus cooling oceans will still have El Nino, its just that we believe it will further equalise and thus El Nino. SE Asia could suffer a double impact of a maunder just as the West Coast of US will etc.

      • The difference though is El Nino on the West Coast of US looks to ‘offset’ against cooling, whereas in SE Asia they both are cooling. Perhaps its this El Nino effect that leads to Alaska staying relative warm in cooling periods.

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