Experts said Arctic would be entirely free of sea ice by Sep 2016 – They were wrong

Very, very wrong. This year the Arctic has seen the quickest refreeze ever recorded. Satellite images show far more ice now than in 2012.


7 Oct 2016 – “Scientists such as Professor Peter Wadhams, of Cambridge University  and Prof Wieslaw Maslowski, of the Naval Postgraduate School in Moderey, California, have regularly forecast the loss of ice by 2016,” according to The Telegraph.

In  his book A Farewell To Ice, Prof Wadhams, a (supposed) leading expert on Arctic sea ice loss, repeats his assertion that the Arctic would free of ice in the middle of this decade.

In fact, as late as this summer he was still predicting an ice-free September.

Yet on September 10 there were still 1.6 million square miles (4.14 sq km) of sea ice, 21 percent more than the lowest point in 2012.

For the month of September overall, there was 31 percent more ice than in 2012, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Centre. This amounts to an extra 421,000 square miles (1.09 million sq km) of sea ice.

Read that again. An extra 421,000 sq miles. That’s enough extra ice to cover 17 states.

That’s enough extra ice to cover the states of North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Ohio, Kentucky, Virginia, Indiana, South Carolina, Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, Rhode Island, Maine, Massachusetts, Connecticut, New Hampshire and Vermont.

He kept on moving the target

In 2007 Prof Wadhams predicted that sea ice would be lost by 2013. However, 2013 ice levels were actually 25 per cent higher than in 2007. And in 2012, following another record low, Prof Wadhams changed his prediction to 2016.

As to Prof Maslowski, his 2013 paper in the Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences also claimed that the Arctic would be ice-free by 2016, plus or minus three years.

However, far from record lows, this year the Arctic has seen the quickest refreeze ever recorded.

Fastest refreezing rate on record

Sea ice extent grew 405,000 square miles (1.05 million sq km) in just three weeks (since September 10).  The Danish Meteorological Institute said this is the fastest refreezing rate since its daily records began in 1987.

Again, that’s enough ice to entirely cover 17 states – In just three weeks.

See entire article:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/2016/10/07/experts-said-arctic-sea-ice-would-melt-entirely-by-september-201/

Thanks to Vance, Heidi and Stephen Bird for this link


12 thoughts on “Experts said Arctic would be entirely free of sea ice by Sep 2016 – They were wrong”

  1. Wadhams and Maslowski have been shunned by the rest of the warmists for their ice-free Arctic claims, and in Wadhams case, claims of a Big Oil hit squad murdering climate ‘scientists’ in London.

    There is a very good piece on what appears to be a change to the Arctic cycle from 2007 on WUWT. This suggests the rebound is under way and likely to see growth barring any freak storms like 2012.

  2. AlJazeera: Snow returns to Poland’s Tatras Mountains
    Poland’s prospects for winter sports start well as southern mountains see 45cm of snowfall.
    There is no doubt that Europe is now properly into autumn. The change in weather from a late, remarkably warm summer to the first snow was pretty abrupt.
    The Tatra mountains of southern Poland are as good a marker as any. On the slopes of Kasprowy Wierch, the weather station reported the last of the 2015/16 winter’s snow gone on May 22.
    Then the summer blossomed and even at 2000 metres above sea level, 20C was recorded here on June 22. That turned out to be the warmest day of the year on the mountain.
    Then, on the turn of season, the autumnal equinox, the warmth left. For the first time in four months the temperature failed to rise above zero Celsius. Ice fog prevailed for three days, then the air warmed up again.
    But October brought the rain which chilled the air until it brought the snow. By Tuesday morning, October 4, there was 20cm of snow on the ground. Two days later that was 45cm and the temperature was -5C.
    Kasprowy Wierch marks the border between Poland and the Slovak Republic and it is possible to cross without let or hindrance, weather permitting. It also is a very popular winter sports resort so this recent snow is most welcome.
    http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/10/snow-returns-poland-tatras-mountains-161008135654877.html

  3. Canada, Snow wreaks havoc on hwy.
    Nicholas Johansen – Oct 8, 2016.
    The Kamloops RCMP has issued a warning to those travelling on the Coquihalla Highway, as snow continues to fall at higher elevations.
    “Kamloops Rural RCMP and Merritt RCMP are responding to multiple accidents throughout the region,” wrote Cpl. Cheryl Bush of the Kamloops RCMP in a statement.
    Winter has reared its ugly head on the Okanagan Connector, causing multiple crashes.
    As families throughout the Okanagan hit the road for the long weekend, snow is accumulating over the mountain highways, particularly heavily near the Pennask Summit on Highway 97C.
    A witness on the highway said they saw a black Dodge pickup truck roll in the westbound lane at about 10:20 a.m., and a sedan had slid off the eastbound side of the highway earlier.
    Emergency crews are near the summit, dealing with the vehicle crashes.
    There is no word yet on the condition of anyone involved in the incidents.
    As of Oct. 1, all vehicles travelling on highways, such as the Connector or the Coquihalla, are required by law to have winter tires.
    The Coquihalla appears to have received some light snow Saturday morning.
    http://www.castanet.net/news/West-Kelowna/177849/Snow-wreaks-havoc-on-hwy
    http://www.castanet.net/content/2016/10/large/20161008_1023140_p3163843.jpg

  4. With the likes of people like, Professor Peter Wadhams, of Cambridge University, is why universities like Cambridge are considered to be among the best in the world. True enough, when you lie and teach rubbish like they do at Cambridge, they truly are among the best in the world.
    Go to Cambridge University, and learn to be an idiot.

    Well done Cambridge!

  5. what amazes me is not only do these ex-spurts( has been/drip under pressure) manage to keep their jobs in spite of easily reviewable PROOF they are WRONG repeatedly..
    but that the majority of their own supporters also manage to show cognitive dissonance at its finest to keep supporting them.

    theres a seriously warped questionable mindset at work.
    same sort of blind ignorance/avoidance of reality that makes Nth koreans follow the fat leader and works so well for other politicians past n present aka the kerfuffle over Trumps comments from 11 yrs ago today
    after Bill Clinton AS president fooling round with Lewinsky and many others..and hilarrious in full support mode of him then n now.

  6. When it becomes obvious that the world is starting to cool rather than warm, you can bet that the global warming crowd will do a quick 180 and declare their discovery of global cooling. Of course, they will “discover” that it is caused by burning coal and driving cars and other things us “little people” do. If we would only put them in control, they will say, the earth could be saved.
    History repeats, again!

  7. Whats worse he got the full royal treatment on the premier BBC4 morning politics show around four weeks ago.

    I am forced to pay for a licence fee which supports AGW cheer leaders, fully propaganderising AGW and the Carbon Credit Ponzy Scheme.

  8. Great job Bob! Since 2001, looks like you hit the nail on the head back in those days already! You mentioned this clearly from the very beginning that ice will continue to INCREASE worldwide as we head into an ice age. That includes glaciers and Arctic/Antarctic ice cap.

    We certainly are seeing increasing ice since that time in both hemispheres with no letup in sight.

  9. The Climate Computer Models have been wrong since they were first turned on, yet they are still considered the gold standard. Maybe the Computer Models are correct and Mother Nature is just one of those despicable Climate Change Deniers?

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