New finding – Earth has been cooling for 2000 years!!!

New finding – Earth has been cooling for 2000 years!!!

“Thoroughly debunks the claim that temperatures on the planet today are in any way historic or unprecedented.”


A new study of tree-ring data has concluded that not only has our climate often been noticeably hotter than today, temperatures have actually been on a falling trend for the past 2,000 years.

Measurements stretching back to 138BC prove that the Earth is slowly cooling -0.3°C per millennium due to gradual changes to the position of the sun and an increase in the distance between the Earth and the sun.

The climate was HOTTER in Roman and Medieval times than it is now

Despite the absence of any significant amounts of human-released carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, the climate was HOTTER in Roman and Medieval times than it is now.

“We found that previous estimates of historical temperatures during the Roman era and the Middle Ages were too low,” says Doctor Jan Esper of the Johannes Gutenberg-Universität Mainz, one of the scientists leading the study. “Such findings are also significant with regard to climate policy.”

“They certainly are,” writes Lewis Page in the Register. “If it is the case that actually the climate has often been warmer without any significant CO2 emissions having taken place – suggesting that CO2 emissions simply aren’t that important – the case for huge efforts to cut those emissions largely disappears.”

This graph demonstrates what’s really happened in the past 2,000 years:


Reconstruction of past climate Credit: Institute of Geography Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz

Needless to say, prominent alarmist scientists and the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) have not taken this view. They argue instead that the planet was cooler during both Roman times and the Medieval warm period.

“In the IPCC view,” says Page, “the planet was cooler during Roman times and the medieval warm spell. Overall the temperature is headed up – perhaps wildly up, according to the famous/infamous “hockey stick” graph.”

“The new study indicates that that’s quite wrong, with the current warming less serious than the Romans and others since have seen – and the overall trend actually down by a noticeable 0.3°C per millennium.”

“This figure we calculated may not seem particularly significant,” says Esper. “Our results suggest that the large-scale climate reconstruction shown by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) likely underestimate this long-term cooling trend over the past few millennia.”

Orbital shifting on climate up to four times as powerful as AGW (human-caused warming)

The cooling effect of orbital shifting on the climate has been up to four times as powerful as anthropogenic (human-caused) warming pressures, the study concluded.


“The finding may force scientists to rethink current theories of the impact of global warming,” writes Rob Waugh in the MailOnline.

This study “thoroughly debunks the claim that temperatures on the planet today are in any way historic or unprecedented,” says Noel Sheppard of Newsbusters.com. “Will Media Notice?”

See entire article:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2171973/Tree-ring-study-proves-climate-WARMER-Roman-Medieval-times-modern-industrial-age.html

See also:
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2012/07/10/global_warming_undermined_by_study_of_climate_change/

See also:
http://newsbusters.org/blogs/noel-sheppard/2012/07/11/new-study-thoroughly-debunks-global-warming-will-media-notice

See press release from Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz (Germany):
http://www.uni-mainz.de/eng/15491.php

Entitled “Orbital forcing of tree-ring data,” the new study was published in the journal Nature Climate Change. View that article here:
http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate1589.html

Thanks to Joe Herr, Cary Ellis, Bill Sellers, David Swineford, John V. Kampen, Laurent, Peter Lamb, AtSimon, George Fitzsimmons, Dr F Kirk Millward, AK Raven, Del Hilber and Steven Woodcock for these links

Dr Jan Esper is Prof. Dr. at the Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz
http://www.geo1.uni-mainz.de/1363.php (the man)
http://www.geo1.uni-mainz.de/1250.php (his publications)


“Surely this means we could be further into a a new ice age than any of us even dared to imagine!!” says reader Lee Woods.


35 thoughts on “New finding – Earth has been cooling for 2000 years!!!”

  1. I have always been amazed climate scientists get away with their method of calculating temperatures based on the sun shining equally all over the globe 24/7 at one quarter power – it’s ridiculous.

    I have always been amazed that people didn’t fall over laughing at the “Energy Budget” cobbled together by Kiehl & Trenberth based on this myth.

    Just the other day I saw a comment claiming the Earth is warmer than calculated by the Stefan-Boltzmann equations when if one calculates the maximum possible while the sun is actually shining rather than a fictitious average the results show the Earth is actually much cooler during the day than the power of the solar radiation could cause.

    A note to climate scientists – there is no sunshine at night and very little at either pole.

  2. I’m sure some will blame this cooling trend on global warming!! 😉

    Jokes apart though, surely this would suggest that we’re actually further into a new ice than any of us even dared to imagine? That’s a scary thought!

  3. Dont believe the orbit distance has anything to do with it. The ice ages come and go due to SOLAR ACTIVITY and modulated cycles NOT earth sun distance. The tiny fluctuations I dont think would do much the orbit is elliptical anyway. This just agrees with the Landsheidt work and other graphs showing temp treds through earlier epochs.

    • I am not so sure I agree…
      If the tilt of our planet can make the huge differences of winter and summer, then why cannot the small fluctuations make a difference?
      Just the tilt difference caused by the Chile and Japan earthquakes also contributed!

      • The problem I see is that only the tilt or only orbital changes can be masked, to some extent, by local influences like air circulation, oscillation in oceans temperatures, volcanism, etc.
        On the other hand, a prolonged change in the Sun cannot be masked and will necessarily point the direction the climate will go, after some time.

    • I agree, if we knew more about the Sun we’d probably conclude that even this long term cooling, spanning 1000’s of years, is also a result of variations in solar radiation.
      The problem is: if you think that the Sun is a “nuclear reactor” consuming mass to generate energy and nothing more, you’ll never get all the (myriad) cycles that seem to form the manifestation of our Star.
      The solar cycles are our best clue of the solar phenomena, and they’re greatly underestimated by mainstream science.
      We know very, very little of what is really happening.
      For example, have you ever read about LERN (Low-Energy Nuclear Reaction) and the possible influence of solar radiation on beta decay and radioactivity on Earth?
      Here is some interesting theory, (they are not going “deep enough” IMO)
      http://newenergytimes.com/v2/sr/WL/WLTheory.shtml
      and here are some facts,
      http://news.discovery.com/space/is-the-sun-emitting-a-mystery-particle.html
      and
      http://news.stanford.edu/news/2010/august/sun-082310.html
      These facts indicate an important component of weak forces on the solar radiation that is almost completely neglected in modern normal science.
      We must understand better the weak forces field (in direct relation with the EM field), the importance of the magnetic field of planets and stars and probably review the concept of dark matter too.
      I believe new science is coming from the study of solar radiations, especially now in times of grand minimum, and we must be open minded to learn the lessons.
      Ice Ages start quickly and last for very long times. There is no good explanation for these two simultaneous facts unless they’re related to the powerful and long lasting influence of the Sun.

    • The distance from Earth to Sun certainly does affect Earth’s temps and overall climate. Throw in a slumbering, cooler Sun and you have all the ingredients for the next Ice Age.

  4. According to Stanford University researchers, Genghis Khan caused global cooling. Doesn’t this give you great faith in our academic institutions?

  5. All I can say is there has been no global warming in the past 14 years,and the fearmongering from eco fascist lunatics is at a fever pitch, whats it going take after 14 years of no warming for the well to do followers of this bs religion to wake up and realise that they are being used!! and its not about the environment,its about a one world totalitarian socialist government and eco socialism is just a tool for enslavement. Nothing will wake you up more than the cold so bring on the ice age!

  6. There is a basic problem with a supposedly closed system such as the Solar System increasing energy in cycles of ~100,000 years, yes, we have orbital change but the other planets do not at the same time, and measurements have shown that several of them have experienced warming over the past thirty years or so as we have,, and for all we know they could have had similar variations in step with our ice ages.
    One theory that accounts for this is that the Sun receives extra energy in the form of EM radiation, in at the Suns poles and out at its equator directed at the planetary region, from the Galaxy. This varies as we pass through the plane of the Galaxy, up and down, at ~100,000 years also, so that would account for more total energy in the Solar system. Axial tilt of the Sun’s axis also comes into this, pointing toward the Galaxy plane in periods of maximum intake.

    • I like this idea, the connection with the interstellar field is usually neglected in the majority of models about climate.
      The problem I see is the energy balance: what could bring so much energy to affect the temperatures of the entire solar system and how this energy would “come here”, radiation, “dust” clouds, … ?
      I believe if we had a more “flexible” theory of dark matter (WIMP field) it would help to create a reliable model for this possible influence.

  7. Unfortunately, not everyone is happy with this study.
    Dr. Tim Ball, a renowned skeptic, says this at WUWT (http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/07/09/this-is-what-global-cooling-really-looks-like/): “Apart from the fact that trees rings don’t, for the most part, reflect temperature, this study is even more problematic because it only looks at summer temperatures. All the actual records show that it is winter temperatures that change the most.

    For example, summer temperatures were about the same at the nadir of the Little Ice Age around 1680, but winters were much colder, Since then summer temperatures have remained about the same and winter temperatures have increased creating an increase in annual average.

    Summary; Trees don’t represent temperature and half a year doesn’t represent an annual record.”

    REAL science doesn´t seem to be that simple at all ;-). Perhaps we should just forget about all those tree-ring guessworks.

    • The areas where glaciation occurs are not always those that are the coldest in absolute terms. It occurs in those areas that have a climate cool enough for long enough to allow a surplus of precipitation to fall and to last as snow. The classic examples are the mountainous regions of the Pacific Northwest of the USA/Alaska/Canada and in Europe, the Scandes, the Alps and in cooler periods, the Scottish Highlands. Siberia and north central Canada/USA may have much colder weather, but no glaciation. Snow will still fall if winters are a little warmer, but may not melt if summers are a little colder. It is the summer growing season that largely determines the soil-vegetation complex. Trees can survive -50C but they are unlikely to make much growth if there is no two months of summer with an average temperature of 10C.

    • on the other hand… if the summer temperatures tend to remain (approx.) the same when comparing periods of greatly different average anomalies, like the LIA and now for example, the fact that the study revealed these temperatures declining (during the summer) in the last 2000 years, would indicate that the “total decline”, including winter, would be even more pronounced.
      In this regard, I believe the study should not be discarded as meaningless or faulty, but considered as an “indicator”, a measurement, of the average trend of temperatures.
      It means that the average trend in the last 2000 years is at least as pronounced as the paper says.
      If you compare the present interglacial with the previous 4 ones, as in the following graph

      http://muller.lbl.gov/pages/IceAgeBook/Image5.gif

      you’ll see that the present one is much “flatter” than the others and that is suspicious IMO.
      In part this is due to imprecision of data going back so many 1000 years, but the peaks of the previous interglacials are too pronounced and well defined at the center of the period, indicating a strong maximum at the center followed by an average decrease after that.
      The study of Esper et.al. would then bring a more coherent comparison with what happened in the past and this coherence could be considered as an indirect confirmation of its essential correctness.

  8. “The finding may force scientists to rethink current theories of the impact of global warming,” What a laugh, the mainstream scientists are all owned by the dragon, they can´t think for themselves. “Global warming”, “overpopulation”, vaccines and fake pandemics, “war on terror” and staged terror attacks… what´s next?

  9. Yes, this might become a seminal piece of work. No doubt the ‘Warmo-panickers’ will be working hard to debunk not only the paper, but the individual scientists in particular. I hope those concerned have not sacrificed their careers for going against the ‘high priests’ of the Church of CO2 Delusion.

  10. Exactly!!
    My reason is the way they spot the sunspots these days with all the new technologies? The sunspot numbers they are allocating could never ever be seen by Maunder in the 1600″s ? Could it? I mean with his telescope and a piece of smoked glass I presume? So that’s why I agree we are already in the mini ice age!!

    • Theo, I have postulated the same thing in regards to the number of obvserved sunspots in modern times versus in the 15nth century. However, I don’t agree with your thought of already being in a mini-iceage. Last winter was the mildest on record in the lower 48, this spring has been one of the warmest. Had two named storms before hurricane season even officially started, and in southeast Texas we are already in record usage of electricity due to the extreme heat. At least we are not having drought so far this summer, but it has been an extremely hot one.

      • That old expression ‘my cut finger is worse than your broken leg’ comes to mind here. Much of western Europe is enduring one of the wettest, coolest and most miserably dull summers on the record books. The murderous avalanche on Mont Blanc yesterday has been attributed to recent fresh snow falling on a snow pack from a very snowy spring. Items on this site covering ice and snow conditions in the PNW and Alaska are a reminder of that the heat of the Lower 48 is not universal.

  11. I find trees are not a good proof for climate. They only grow from spring to autumn. The last winter was mild and the winter before that was the coldest in 130 years. This is not recorded in the tree ring.
    Trees are not growing in the night either.

    The tree is also impacted by the soil temperature rather than the air temperature.

  12. Plus some of those “all-time highs” they claim today are very much inaccurate.
    The thermometers are often placed right in the middle of the airport “hot” runway above the ground, which radiates heat toward the thermometer. I was in Columbia,SC (I’m a FAA weather observer) last year when the ASOS equipment was not working. I had to measure temp/dewpoint data manually and I used a location 5 feet above the ground near a grassy area in the shade. It was about 4 F degrees LOWER than what the official data was reporting – away from the paved runway. So people keep forgetting that those official surface obs are warm biased – especially in summer when the sun angle is high in the sky and shines more directly ontop of the protected temperature sensor. So I don’t buy those media reports of the earlier heat wave temperature claims – like in Kansas or Columbia,SC. It was likely several degrees lower than was reported.

    Here was an excellent article, on the old iceagenow site, which clarified this problem of warm biased surface obs of today – and we see allot of those measurements today near AC units, too close to parking lots, asphalt, airport runways and even occasionally burning trashcans:

    http://iceagenow.com/US_Temperature_Records_Biased_on_High_Side.htm

    US Temperature Records Biased on High Side
    By Richard Henry Lee

    10 May 09 – (Excerpts) – After surveying 70% of the 1,221 weather monitoring stations in the US, Anthony Watts of the Watts Up With That website, finds that the temperature record is “unreliable”. About 90% of the stations are sited poorly, such as being surrounded by asphalt parking lots which act as heat islands. The result is that most stations are reporting “higher or rising temperatures” due to poor siting alone, according to Watts.

    The US surface temperature record is one indicator used for making false claims about global warming.

    Anthony Watts and his volunteer army numbering 650 performed yeoman’s work in amassing this data. The results are chronicled at Watts’ website at SurfaceStations.org. The project was funded entirely by volunteers without corporate or government assistance.

    These results also provide additional evidence that the faulty science of global warming is not settled, and that we should not embark on a costly efforts to control CO2 emissions when the underlying data is faulty.

    But the real question is why it took a dedicated group of volunteers to find the numerous faults in our temperature record rather than the heavily funded governmental and educational institutions which are continually warning us about the fraud called “global warming.”

    Dear Robert,

    8 Dec 09 – Email from a reader:
    “This was a bit of a shock to me; that the weather data collecting stations are often located in parking lots, covered with heat trapping asphalt, and that the data collected from them is somewhat faulty.
    http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2009/05/us_temperature_records_biased.html
    Thanks to David Bronzich for this link

    • Re: ASOS implementation. Don’t forget when they did this in the mid 90s they then adjusted raw data down because they claimed it had a “bias”, thus setting 1971-2000 normals over a degree lower than the arithmetic mean. The 1981-2010 normals are still set almost a degree less than the arithmetic means. Go ahead and add the raw data (example – BWI airport). That way it appears that the current data is all warm. The decade of 2001-2010 was actually only 0.1 degree warmer than 1971-2000, and was running behind until the very warm 2010. Its this kind of data manipulation and garbage that goes into the ridiculous computer models!

      • And then don’t forget after 1990 they shut down a whole bunch of Soviet (Russian) stations in the arctic after that time, which means they stll calculated the warm tropical locations but no longer included many of the arctic Russian locations into the long term average. So obviously the surface record would show a “fake warming” in the 90’s since those cold Russian locations were no longer included.
        I’m surprised people didn’t remember that…

  13. And Dodge City,KS is significantly BELOW NORMAL again the last few days, after the heatwave they had earlier. 60F is pretty cool in July:

    high Low avg dep
    July 11 89 60 75 -5

  14. I can’t believe that someone hasn’t commented on what was aired just yesterday on the Weather Channel… I was appalled when they said that this past winter’s exceptionally mild weather, along with the record breaking heat and runaway wild-fires across the US, can without a doubt, be attributed to Man Made Global Warming… It really concerned me that after all this time they’re still addressing the subject of AGW in such a blatant manner.

    • It should come as no surprise or shock wayne, think about it,who owns the weather channel? NBC, and thats the reason a left wing news outlet would buy the weather channel so they can get peole that dont know anything about weather or climate to believe that were over heating the planet and its all lies.all these people that believe that crap can go to(WoodForTrees.org) pull up some temperature measurements and see that we have had no global warming in 14 years!.

  15. Maybe you throw it all into one big pot, stir gently, and the climate appears – with everything having some part in the final result. This discussion, in itself, is PROOF of why no science is settled by any form of consensus and every theory can be attacked by someone. Eventually we get a glimpse of the whole picture but no one specialist studying his little area has more than a couple of pixels to add to the whole. If for no other reason I always knew the agw folks were wrong – no scientific fact is determined by consensus therefore they were lying. Simple really.

  16. I’m underwhelmed. This has been common knowledge for many years. While Hansen puts his base line in the little ice age circa 1850; thereby showing a warming trend stretched out to today, everybody with a fully functioning brain knew this was a fraud, a statistical manipulation.

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