Headed for 19th Little Ice Age in the past 7500 years

Headed for 19th Little Ice Age in the past 7500 years

“Temperature drop in approximately 2014,” says astrophysicist Habibullo I. Abdussamatov of the Pulkovo Observatory in St Petersburg, Russia. We’re headed into a period similar to the Maunder minimum.

From early 90s we observe bicentennial decrease in both the TSI (total solar irradiance) and the portion of its energy absorbed by the Earth.

The Earth as a planet will henceforward have negative balance in the energy budget which will result in the temperature drop in approximately 2014.


sa_tsi_1600_en


Due to increase of albedo and decrease of the greenhouse gases atmospheric concentration the absorbed portion of solar energy and the influence of the greenhouse effect will additionally decline. The influence of the consecutive chain of feedback effects which can lead to additional drop of temperature will surpass the influence of the TSI decrease.

The onset of the deep bicentennial minimum of TSI is expected in 2042±11, that of the 19th Little Ice Age in the past 7500 years – in 2055±11.
http://icecap.us/images/uploads/abduss_APR.pdf

2014 is starting (relatively) very cold as predicted by Abdussamatov,
http://www.gao.spb.ru/english/astrometr/KPhCB23_3_97.pdf

and
“… The tendency of decrease in the global Earth temperature started in 2006–2008 will temporarily pause in 2010–2012. The increase in TSI within a short 11-year cycle 24 is expected to temporarily compensate the decrease in TSI within the ongoing 2-century variation. Only the decrease in TSI within the ongoing 11-year cycle 24 accompanied by continued decrease of its 2-century component in 2013–2015 will lead to stable subsequent cooling of our planet, which is expected to reach its minimum in the phase of a deep cooling by 2055–2060 ± 11 (Abdussamatov H.I. Bulletin of the Crimean Astrophysical Observatory. 2007. 103. No. 4. p. 292–298).

The cooling can be similar to the one observed in the whole Europe, North America and Greenland in 1645–1715 in the period of Maunder minimum of solar luminosity and sunspot activity when the temperature will fall by 1–1.5 Celsius degrees down to the mark of the so-called Maunder minimum …”
http://www.gao.spb.ru/english/astrometr/index1_eng.html

Thanks to Dmh for these links

“We’re still close to solar max and with positive AMO,” says Dmh. “I’m expecting 2015 and the following years to be even more interesting.”


26 thoughts on “Headed for 19th Little Ice Age in the past 7500 years”

  1. My money is on 2015 for the biggest fall but don’t expect 2014 to be warm either.

    I am also unconvinced (i.e. either way) that we will not get a long Dalton type minimum. I am hoping for this which is the most optimistic I think we can hope for. The least optimistic is a full blown glaciation which really could be triggered by a Maunder type event and might begin in less than 10 years.

  2. Or, we are at the end of an interglacial and headed to a real ice age, not just a ‘little’ one, not to mention all the other cycles set to converge. How about all those other charts going parabolic like cometary activity, volcanic and EQ activity? Really think this is just a ‘little’ ice age in progress?

    • It looks ever more likely that converged cycles might have compounding effects I think.
      Not so sure about cometary activity, as records for comets probably don’t go back far enough (what’s high? what’s low? We might be at low numbers coming in over the last few thousand years. Or even unprecedented high numbers. Nobody can tell for certain).
      One thing we can better guess at, at least is other cycles.

  3. Don’t forget Theodor Landscheidt also predicted a major cool period around 2030.

    “We need not wait until 2030 to see whether the forecast of the next deep Gleissberg minimum is correct. A declining trend in solar activity and global temperature should become manifest long before the deepest point in the development. The current 11-year sunspot cycle 23 with its considerably weaker activity seems to be a first indication of the new trend, especially as it was predicted on the basis of solar motion cycles two decades ago. As to temperature, only El Nino periods should interrupt the downward trend, but even El Ninos should become less frequent and strong. The outcome of this further long-range climate forecast solely based on solar activity may be considered to be a touchstone of the IPCC’s hypothesis of man-made global warming.”

    http://www.schulphysik.de/klima/landscheidt/iceage.htm

    • I predict one – given my method in the preceding post to this one!
      All data is on this site 😉
      It’s late here and I cba to write it out yet again on this iPad…

      Ok, it not the most scientific but I will bet it beats any super-computer forecast by the met office, IPCC or NASA for accuracy!

  4. What’s really interesting is in the past we would call a polar vortex a “Hudson Bay Low”. The difference here is the vortex, as a huge upper level low is much stronger than the Hudson Bay Low. In addition, the AO and NAO are positive. However, the AO is trending negative. Should be an interesting rest of the winter here in the NH. BTW, models are indicating another vortex next week.

    • the incoming CME due to hit sometime today usa time..will see that vortex strengthened I reckon..
      flares risk rating 85% for M and up to 50% now for more X class before the big spot spins away from us.

  5. There is a reason why I moved to Hervey Bay, 25 degrees south of the Equator, with the option of, if necessary, walking another 10 degrees North.

    When the world wakes up to how cold it will get, warm countries will be forced to slam the door shut to avoid being overwhelmed by cold climate refugees.

    Get out while you still can.

  6. My money (figuratively speaking) is on a steep La Nina temperature drop in early 2014 due to Nino 3.4 phasing.

  7. Do you still have the info. on the Siberian ice core program you posted around a year and a half or so?

    Did it not have quotes to the directorate in Moscow speaking of impending war and calamity due to the forthcoming cold?

    When put to scale with the Iceland core program they had exact heart bear of the sun on the peaks and valleys.

  8. I have to disagree with the statement: “decrease of the greenhouse gases atmospheric concentration”.

    It took a long time for Mother Nature (Oceans) to increase the CO2 concentration to the levels seen today. Obviously, it will take time to decrease.

    Furthermore, Co2 will continue to increase even though the world is cooling. Of course, If there is any truth to the claims that CO2 is human induced, then CO2 should increase rapidly since the human population will burn every stick they can find just to stay warm.

    Yet, more importantly, the world will witness the fact that the “Greenhouse Effect” is insignificant as the cooling continues to drop the world temperatures.

  9. I don’t worry about the length or severity of the cold period which has started. It won’t matter. All which will matter is what will you eat the first year and thereafter when the last frost and the first frost over the great grain fields of the world are too close to harvest an adequate crop? The population of the world will be culled by cruel starvation before the next harvest after the first missed harvest. To the dead, the length of the cold period will not matter one bit.

  10. We are already in one. Sea levels fell 5mm per year in 2010 and 2011. By the third consecutive year you enter a little ice age. Plus with all the news from Antarctica’s rapidly thickening ice sheet I would definitely say that the new little ice age began in 2012. We are also moving into a major ice age, as all 3 of these cycles are due immediately.

  11. For those promoting the myth of global warming and trying to enslave humanity with carbon taxes I say we “hang ’em high”, just like the old days.

    The only problem is there may not be enough lamp posts down Pennsylvania Avenue.

  12. Cooling will come. Another Ice Age will eventually come. Put aside some food stores, some seed. Learn about Leyden Jars and their potential use. And remember: individuals will not survive. Communities and joint cooperations may survive.

  13. It’s not bicentennial, the (2-3) weaker solar cycles occur on average every 110.7 years, i.e. from around 1570, 1680, 1790, 1900 (actually 1880) and 2013, roughly every 10 cycles. Activity will be picking up again in solar cycle 26.

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