Headed into Space-Age record cold, warns NASA scientist

Headed into Space-Age record cold, warns NASA scientist

“It could happen in a matter of months,” says Martin Mlynczak of NASA’s Langley Research Center.
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29 Sep 2018 -“The sun is entering one of the deepest Solar Minima of the Space Age,” writes Dr Tony Phillips, editor of spaceweather.com. Sunspots have been absent for most of 2018, and Earth’s upper atmosphere is responding.

Data from NASA’s TIMED satellite show that the thermosphere (the uppermost layer of air around our planet) is cooling and shrinking, literally decreasing the radius of the atmosphere.

Layers of the atmosphere. Credit: NASA

To help track the latest developments, Martin Mlynczak of NASA’s Langley Research Center and his colleagues recently introduced the “Thermosphere Climate Index” (TCI), which tells how much heat nitric oxide (NO) molecules are dumping into space. During Solar Maximum, TCI is high (“Hot”); during Solar Minimum, it is low (“Cold”).

“Right now, it is very low indeed … 10 times smaller than we see during more active phases of the solar cycle,” says Mlynczak

The Thermosphere Climate Index by Mlynczak and colleagues.
Displays times of Cold, Cool, Neutral, Warm, and Hot since 1940.

“If current trends continue, it could soon set a Space Age record for cold,” says Mlynczak. “We’re not there quite yet, but it could happen in a matter of months.”

The TIMED satellite monitoring the temperature of the upper atmosphere

See more:

The Chill of Solar Minimum

Thanks to John A. Brown, Craig Adkins, Loherchef, Laurel and Craig Adkins for this link

Dr. Tony Phillips was also (and perhaps still is) production editor of Science@NASA


81 thoughts on “Headed into Space-Age record cold, warns NASA scientist

  1. So NASA itself is now warning of cooling. What are the warmers to do now? They will probably have to start attacking NASA, or at least Dr Tony Phillips. More than likely they will attack the interpretation of the data, somehow. I’d like to see what arguments they come up with….

    • No – you’ve got it wrong.

      This is an internal dispute between NASA’s Langley Research Center and NASA GISS.

      GISS – “Research at the GISS emphasizes a broad study of Global Change; the natural and anthropogenic changes in our environment that affect the habitability of our planet.”

      Langley Research Center – LaRC has focused primarily on aeronautical research, but has also tested space hardware at the facility, such as the Apollo Lunar Module.

      So there you have it !

      GISS has NO actual engineering credibility instead relying on an unproven hypothesis to blame humanity for “unprecedented climate change”.

      Langley Research Center on the other hand actually designs and tests REAL engineering with REAL data related to ALL things space and does NOT rely on an unproven hypothesis.

      How could anyone not see which is probably right ?

      • https://www.iceagenow.info/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/tci.png

        Great chart, but notice SC20 1963 to 1978 and SC24 from 2008 to approx 2020, the latter is much lower in energy output that the previous 70s Cool period during the cycle the Alarmists where suggesting was the start of the next glacial advance, and wanting vast amounts of research dollars to scope its effects.

        Both cycles had very reduced UV and EUV output, both experienced significant Meridonial Jet Stream activity, and both have, and are experiencing the effects of Large long lasting Coronial Holes in the Suns atmosphere and the corresponding SAW event in our own Atmosphere.
        UV and EUV play a massive role in our the Earths climate reacts to changes in the amount of energy reaching the planet from our star.

        Yes we are seing more impacts from cosmic energy, but only becuase of the reduced solar winds and possibly the Goldilox zone shrinking with the reduced energy output from the Sun.

      • “This is an internal dispute between NASA’s Langley Research Center and NASA GISS.” – ROSCO

        Hahahahahahahaha…… There is no dispute.

        You are a nutcase.

        NASA is talking about the thin whisps of atmosphere that merges with space.

        GISS is talking about the vast bulk of the atmosphere at ground level.

        So much kook fart ignorance… So little time.

      • It doesn’t really matter where the data comes from. If it doesn’t agree with Global Warming doctrine, they’ll attack it.

        This is essentially the problem with the whole AGW belief system. Unlike normal religions, which operate in a sphere of belief that can’t be challenged by science because it is supposedly outside the realm of science, AGW operates well within the physical world, where science is quite capable of proving or disproving its claims.

        In order then, for AGW “science” to stand, it needs other means of avoiding scientific scrutiny and scepticism. Hence the personal attacks on anyone who dares deny the “evidence”, which evidence itself is a concoction of cherry picking and computer models which are designed to “prove” AGW is real.

    • “So NASA itself is now warning of cooling.” – Lloyd

      Wrong again Lloyd. One NASA scientist is stating that the highest reaches of the atmosphere will be be cooler over the next few months due to the sun reaching the minimum of it’s 12 year sunspot cycle. The record “cold” in this layer of the atmosphere will be just slightly cooler than normal, and will not in any way effect the massive amount of atmosphere that is below.

      Grade school science Lloyd. Grades 5 through 8. You should learn some.

      • Oh yea… like you know what you’re talking about.

        So let me get this straight, what happens in the upper reaches of the atmosphere don’t affect the “massive amount of atmosphere that is below”… is THAT what you are saying? Because if so, it’s YOU that needs to learn more.

  2. That should ease the amount of fuel the satellites need for station keeping.

    I personally think this is the most definitive means of tracking how much heat is in the system.

    • “I personally think this is the most definitive means of tracking how much heat is in the system.” – Duane Will

      Yes, just like the temperature above a cup of tea is an accurate measure of the amount of heat in the cup,

      Unless the cup has a small mouth, or a large chamber below the lip, or unless there is some wind blowing over it, or some warm light illuminating it.

      I personally think you need to take some remedial high school science.

      • I think you need to stop trolling if you don’t like Roberts site and blog and work he has made here why are you even here eather have a good useful debate instead of this child like name calling and attacks you are throwing with people.

  3. Wow very interesting indeed and this is real time instruments and data not just computer modeling confirming this what is surprising is the fact the AP index is currently those elevated as it was 8.5 for September which is on the high side for a solar minimum it will be interesting to see how the AP index trends over the next few months this cycle has been a rather strange one behaving wise.I just wonder if the AP runs elevated despite the low sunspots what clues would that give us about how cycle 25 behaves and rather its going to be as low as some forecasts have been predicting as sometimes higher AP readings can be a sign of a more active cycle upcoming vers a low cycle but this information would argue lower cycles so a elevated AP index and very low TCI makes for very uncharted waters ahead the jury is still very much out on this how this will play out over time.But none of the less it’s still a nature trend and nature cycles can be at times a challenge to predict..

  4. So this effect reduces the effect of the solar output?

    It would be nice to see red/yellow curve to the left expanded below the thermosphere. Lots of x-ray, uv, vis and ir radiation reaches below that layer in the figure.

  5. I REALLY want to see warmists faces reading this info
    as it utterly ruins the closed system heat trapped bunkum the think is how our planet works!
    they really DO believe that….I have been amazed and incredulous at the sheer ignorance shown by those who are so damned sure “science tells them”
    when they know -and are willing to LEARN- jack schitt about it themselves.

  6. Dr. Phillips also leads the group of students who use weather balloons to carry equipment that measures the ever increasing amount of cosmic rays that are entering earth’s atmosphere. Their FB page is “Earth to Sky Calculus”.

    • The solar proton flux dwarfs cosmic rays. I saw Piers Corbyn say that he isnt convinced cosmic rays do much to the weather, I would agree somewhat.

  7. I have put the years of our ‘Elfstedentocht’ (‘Eleven cities tour’: a long-distance tour skating event, almost 200 kilometres on frozen canals, rivers and lakes in Friesland, The Netherlands) against the minimums of the graph, to see if years of the tours and minimums fit:

    Tour of 1947: no
    Tours of 1954 and 1956: yes
    Tour of 1963: yes
    Winter of 1979 was extremely cold, but no tour
    Tours of 1985 and 1986: yes
    Tours of 1997: yes
    Winters of 2010-2012 were cold, but no tour

    Winter of 2018/2019 might get very cold indeed.

    • You say this tongue-in-cheek, yet, sadly, the collective intelligence of people these days has sunk to the point that, if the right celebrities and politicians were to make the same claim you make in jest (of course, fully believing it to be true themselves – dimwits that they are); public opinions polls would soon reflect just how many of the gullible would accept it, unable to comprehend how it is physically impossible.

      If their “heros” say it’s so, it must be true.

      Actually, that’s pretty much how we arrived where we are at now, in regards to the public belief in anthropogenic global warming, er, “climate change” (or whatever they’re calling their quasi-religious pseudo-science ).

  8. I think SC25 will most likely fail. As per the LIA. Certainly at least 26 probably non existent. Get the woolies out.

  9. On the subject of settled science, I thought the planet was heating up and was going to burst into flames according to James Hansen and glowbull high Priest Algore. It’s good to know I can always depend on the current brand of hysteria merchants for the unvarnished truth.

  10. So, is this a use case to increase greenhouse gases? I mean colder temps could mean less global crop-generating areas/times, or at least a great shift in them to areas that are not tailored for it.

  11. Winters are going to be bitterly cold in the north. We’ve known this is coming for a while and it looks like it is going to be similar to the Mini-Ice Age a few hundred years ago.

    Once the temperatures start declining the effect will probably last at least through this century.

  12. The global warming Chicken Littles assume the effects of the Sun are a constant in their computer models that claim man’s activities affect global temperatures. They also seem to ignore the tradeoffs and costs/benefits of increased temperature vs. lower temperatures. I believe history has shown, reduced temperatures (like those that have occurred during the many ice ages or the Little Ice Age when there were many deaths due to famine https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Little_Ice_Age) are worse than the warming they’ve been worrying about.

    If nothing else, this just shows the AGW computer climate models are worthless. Man can adapt to changes in the weather, but there are costs to dealing with change.

    I expect that climate scientists will eat crow, and then get in bed with government to suggest things we’ll be forced to pay for, to do something about it. I think it’s better to just adapt to change.

  13. Good thing the us government has been working on that tunnel system to keep the rich people warm during this mini ice age!

  14. I always trust real data over computer models that must constantly be “tweaked” to keep them on track for their predetermined outcomes. Just remember, computer models also ‘predicted’ that bumble bees can’t fly. Someone just forgot to tell the bees.

  15. Just to be clear, SUNSPOTS increase and decrease on an eleven year cycle. This is year one which has no sunspots. Our weather events should be peaceful for the next few years. This winter should be the coldest in over ten years.
    I am not an expert, but I have been watching these cycles for at least 30 years and the results are always the same. Prepare now and stock up. Winter is coming.

    • “Just to be clear, SUNSPOTS increase and decrease on an eleven year cycle. This is year one which has no sunspots.”
      Actually no, the last solar maximum was more like a minimum with very little sunspot activity. And this paper on TSI suggests this grand solar minimum started 2003+/- and will last to 2075 which means this is actually year twelve according to these solar physicists https://www.researchgate.net/publication/264671225_Reconstruction_TSI_NA

      As well, the double dynamo model put out by Zharkova et al shows the sun’s magnetic waves moving dramatically out of phase starting July 2018, suggesting this winter is going to be worse than last and is likely to break more century-old cold temperature records last year. Take note winter has already come in the north and is lingering in the south. We had no spring weather and now we are missing out on fall weather.

      Weather events during GSM are rarely peaceful there has already been a dramatic uptick in hail, not only is there an increase in hail events the hail itself is consistently 2-4 inches in size which is devastatingly destructive. There is also an increase in lightning events and this is all due to the meridional jet stream mixing up the hot and cold fronts.

      What we are about to experience has not been experienced by humanity in our lifetimes, so unless in those 30 years of watching you were looking at the historical records then the results you are used to will be overtaken by what can be best described as being unprecedented.

      Winter is here.

  16. Balderdash! Poppycock! Codswallop! Everyone know’s that the only cause of Global Warming is our not all driving a Prius and not send Al Gore a check. Silly scientists! Why would these guys blaspheme like this?

  17. Thank goodness for SUV’s and Coal Fired power plants!! We need increase our Carbon Dioxide output to keep the Earth from entering another ice age!!

  18. I’m thinking that maybe “those in charge” already know about this and the possible dire consequences coming to us “rabble” The secret interstate underground tunnel/shelter facilities must be where the 50 trillion “missing” dollars went over the last 20+ years. OK OK time to adjust my tin foil hat…

  19. Please spare yourselves the giddiness denyers. This says nothing of weather or climate change and the damage from polluting our planets air and then the water from all of the toxins we pump into the air. It is a whole different phenomenon from the sun. The atmosphere is still compromised just maybe getting a bit smaller. Wake up and see the whole picture. Automobile emission standards reduction is still important. Alternative fuels are ever more important. Bigger thinking being the key needed component.

    • “This says nothing of weather or climate change..” ~ an incredulous assumption if ever there was one. It may say nothing to you, but that speaks more about you than it does about the information. Do you require an authority to spell it out for you?
      The thermosphere is ten times cooler. TEN TIMES. This is a significant drop that is also going to affect the troposphere and already has according to Dr Roy Spencer. GMT is only 0.14*C above baseline.
      http://www.drroyspencer.com/latest-global-temperatures/

      I agree the polluting of toxin needs to stop, but Co2 is not a pollution and these toxins though bad for the health of all do not have any effect on weather and climate.

      “The atmosphere is still compromised just maybe getting a bit smaller.”~ a bit? It helps if you actually read the article then you do not make such glaring mistakes. In the article it says it is shrinking by 50%, that is a whole lot more than a bit. And this “compromised atmosphere” is this a veiled reference to atmospheric co2 at 410 ppm? According to AGW narrative, we should not see GMT drop as it has and the fact that is is suggests the AGW narrative is wrong.

      It is incredibly ironic that you refer to some here as “deniers” yet it is you who deny and downplay this research or likely any research that disputes the AGW narrative. I do not deny climate change, I am fully aware it is getting cooler.

      What I do deny is a political narrative used to define a scientific theory. The IPCC mandate limits it to “human-caused climate change and its effects”. I also find it ironic that this was written by Maurice Strong, an oilman and lifelong friend of the Rockefellers who was funded by the Rockefeller Foundation at the time. You speak about the “whole picture” yet you are clearly not aware of the whole picture and likely lack the open mind required to see the whole picture. Why is an agent of an oil tycoon trying to ban oil? Ponder that for a while.

      As for “giddiness”. Again, you seem incapable to fully appreciate what is happening here, to see the big picture. Throughout the history of mankind global warming has always resulted in increasing the population, global cooling always results in decimating the population. There is nothing to get giddy about as this is a very serious situation made more serious by the mistaken AGW narrative. Things are going to get cold fast and people are not prepared. Crop losses globally are high as many countries this year have reported a 50% drop in productivity. This is going to get worse. Longer winters and drought-ridden summers are the product of a Grand Solar Minimum and there is plenty of historical precedents to back this up.

    • WE must drive you crazy !!!

      Now, the “good news” is that in about 2 years EVERYBODY will know which way it is going.

      If it is warm, or warmer, there will be plenty of food, huge large trees, numerous well fed animals………of

      It it is Cold, then animals will starve and people will starve.

  20. If the readings on my own personal Time Flux Capacitor are any indication, a vortex modulator could soon induce inverse polarity levels not seen since…Wait! What’s that? WeeeOOOW!

  21. As a global warming (AGW) skeptic I must point out that the cooling concerns expressed here do not contradict AGW theory. Warming theory is based on models of atmospheric heat retention. The concern here is that the sun will provide less heat for the atmosphere to retain.

    • “Warming theory is based on models of atmospheric heat retention.”~ key word here is “models”, this article is speaking of real-world observations. There is a huge difference between the two. These “models” predictive ability is null having missed their predictions from 90-300%. We do not need to falsify the AGW narrative as the climate is doing it for us. Snow is not disappearing. The Arctic is not having blue ocean events as predicted by Peter Wadham how many times now. In fact, ice thickness is up year over year. Check out this video I made using NOAA archival data that shows the cyclicity of Arctic Ice.
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KX9VpFcl9Jw&t=73s

  22. it sounds just like the Movie.. The Day After… The warmers will hide the story and Jerry Brown will declare it to be
    “” Because of Global Warming””

  23. “Climate Change” and “Polar Vortex” are all terms that started becoming more prevalent in the media between 2012-2013. The Earth’s dynamo, IMO, was impacted during the last half of the last solar cycle when the Sun’s south poles all but stopped moving for almost 7 months in 2013.
    https://www.nasa.gov/content/goddard/the-suns-magnetic-field-is-about-to-flip/
    “The sun’s north pole has already changed sign, while the south pole is racing to catch up,” Scherrer said. “Soon, however, both poles will be reversed, and the second half of solar max will be underway.”

    This “racing to catch up” was the catalyst that created a division in the Earth’s magnetic field. ESA satellites monitoring the Earth’s magnetic fields showed two distinct northern poles by summer of 2014 (July).
    NOAA scientists, report on whitehouse.gov, stated the previous administration forced them to exclude data that did not align with their political messages.

    The truth is that between the 1980’s to current date *all planetary bodies in this solar system* had an overall increase in temperature.

    It has always been about the Sun’s impact on our planet.

  24. This doesn’t fit the mass media narrative of man caused global warming. It will get next to zero exposure.

  25. So, human caused climate change is affecting the Sun and causing the solar minimum, leading to further clkm4aye change on Earth. It’s all man’s fault.

  26. There has been climate change on the earth ever since it coalesced from a cloud of cosmic dust billions of years ago. Man’s relatively late entrance onto the scene has made little difference.
    Our puny affects, including cow burps and farts, obviously make a difference, but there is little proof it is significant; the “sky is falling” people are the real conspiracy theorists and use both cold spells and heat waves, droughts and floods as “proof” of their biased views.
    However, radiant, convection, and advection heating and cooling, as well as solar cycles, are the real culprits and were around billions of years before man.

  27. Thanks to DrudgeReport.com for linking on their homepage to this article. I’m hopeful that you pick up far more readers, Robert.

  28. Where have we read this before?? It’s a new day and some new “expert” is regurgitating the same old same old. No doubt this “expert” has authored a NEW book that he expects you to buy to fund his lifestyle.

  29. Wait… the sun has the biggest impact on the temperature of the planet. Who knew… if it gets to cold, I will run my SUV all night!

  30. Some of these comments are the same cancer from “see the ice isn’t melting!”. Completely disregarding that this year we’ve had the 4th warmest summer on record. “But wait, doesn’t this chart say we’re almost at the solar minimum? How could it be?!”

    Good thing you asked, see there’s multiple factors for these events. What if we were in the solar maximum with the other factors causing heat? We would have most likely been the #1 hottest summer on record. The numbers don’t lie and temperature isn’t uniform across a whole continent, but we’re trending warmer each year and it may become more apparently if we start trending out of solar minimum

    • I don’t know where you are getting your data but that is not the case at all. GMT is only 0.14*C above baseline and has dropped nearly 7/10nths of a degree since 2016. This essentially offsets all the warming of the 20th century. http://www.drroyspencer.com/latest-global-temperatures/
      It is a dangerous thing to trust press releases as on more than one occasion NASA or the IPCC press release did not match the actual data, which, I expect that they expect most people will not check.

      As far as the warm summer goes, there were not nearly as many warm days as there were in the 1930s. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xfiwv1d0QMk
      This heatwave this past summer was entirely driven by drought. The less precipitation the warmer it gets as vegetation adds to the cooling effect. Britain had no rain between April and August and as warm as it was there were very few hot temperature records broken.

      And according to solar physicists, the GSM started in 2003 when the last solar max period behaved like a minimum. The GSM will last till 2075 based on this analysis of TSI. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/264671225_Reconstruction_TSI_NA

      Numbers don’t lie, but those with agendas do lie about the numbers.

    • Uh, it was warmer during the Middle Ages
      It was warmer during the Roman Empire
      It was warmer during the Minoan Era.

  31. Well the last few years have been among the warmest on record- which does not correspond to the cyclical graphs in this article. However, I do believe the effect of Sunspots is largely ignored by the media because it does not fit the globalist agenda of controlling human behavior and massive transference of wealth. Note that low cycles of Sunspots contributed to the “Little Ice Age” and “Mundorhf (sp) Minimum”. Note that so called climate accords exempt the largest non western industrial gas emitters, while forcing the west to “subsidize” the greening of developing world. In geopolitics, a forced transference of assets is called a “subsidy” in the real world it is called extortion.

    • “Well the last few years have been among the warmest on record-“~ this sounds like a NASA press release statement and I would not pay it much heed. According to Dr Roy Spencer’s charting of unadulterated UAH satellite data for the last two years, since that peak in 2016, we have been cooling. http://www.drroyspencer.com/latest-global-temperatures/
      Presently we are at 0.14*C above baseline, that is a drop of nearly 0.7*C in two years pretty much offsetting all the warming of the 20th century.

  32. I’d like to know: how much heat-loss was contributed by the Chimney effect in the mid-Pacific caused by the record lava eruption of Kilauea volcano? That would be interesting.

  33. Too Rosco, your post didnt make sense to me. Maybe just me…but.
    So when the planet warmed and cooled through the milleneia and there were no homanids on the planet, and it has been in a near perfect sinusoidad curve, how was the “anthropogenic” change any influence at all. Climate change by man is just pure bunk. Panatary climate fluctuation is a fact.

  34. Looking at the TCI record, one notable fact lurks in the second figure, which mirrors the sunspot cycle. If you draw trend lines through the peaks and the mina, the trends are roughly parallel and descending (cooling). The thermosphere is no great shakes as a heat sink, but anything happening in it should to some degree also appear deeper in the atmosphere.

  35. From “Earth’s Warming: How Scientists Know It’s Not the Sun.” (Yale Climate Connections)

    “Writing in Nature Communications in 2013, Gerald Meehl of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and colleagues found that a Maunder Minimum-like decline from 2020 to 2070 would reduce human-caused global warming by several tenths of a degree, at a time when warming from pre-Industrial times will likely be in the 2.5⁰F to 5⁰F (1.5⁰C to 3C) range.”

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