Headed Into Grand Minimum, Says Solar Physicist

Sun Flatlining

“Our sun may be entering a grand minimum of sunspot activity, not unlike the Maunder Minimum that some climatologists think caused record low winter temperatures in Northern Europe during the latter half of the 17th century,” says this article on Forbes.com.

“My opinion is that we are heading into a Maunder Minimum,” said Mark Giampapa, a solar physicist at the National Solar Observatory (NSO) in Tucson, Arizona. “I’m seeing a continuation in the decline of the sunspots’ mean magnetic field strengths and a weakening of the polar magnetic fields and subsurface flows.”

“We’re at the sunspot maximum of Cycle 24,” said David Hathaway, a solar physicist at NASA Marshall Space Flight Center in Huntsville. “It’s the smallest sunspot cycle in 100 years and the third in a trend of diminishing sunspot cycles. So, Cycle 25 could likely be smaller than Cycle 24.”

During the 1645 — 1715 Maunder Minimum, sunspots basically disappeared and Northern Europe suffered unusually cold winter temperatures known as The Little Ice Age.

Could wreak havoc by curtailing agricultural growing seasons

“If we’re entering a Maunder Minimum, it could persist until the 2080s,” said Giampapa. Such a minimum could wreak havoc by curtailing agricultural growing seasons, leading to lower wheat production.

It could also result in local climate extremes in terms of both anomalous temperatures and precipitation, says Giampapa.

Could this mitigate a warming climate?

Not likely, says Hathaway.

Although the rise of global temperatures “seems to have currently leveled off,” says Hathaway,  even a Maunder Minimum would still not be enough to counter the warming effects of anthropogenic climate change. (I think Hathaway is woefully wrong on this point.)


45 thoughts on “Headed Into Grand Minimum, Says Solar Physicist

  1. Well we are going to find out about whether or not a solar grand minimum will offset any postulated CO2-induced warming. Both propositions can’t be correct at the same time.

  2. They know our generation won’t be here anymore by 2080 and has to say it to be political right…

  3. Hathaway sounds like he has been told ‘to keep his mouth shut’ about any negative press re climate not obeying the CO2 paradigm.

  4. It fascinates me how these people always have to say AGW will conquer all. And even if it did exist, it doesn’t matter what CO2 might due 50 years from now if the intervening years have frozen to death or starved off two thirds of the world’s population. I’ll be so glad when the government is so damn broke that it can’t fund idiots researching anymore, and they way we waste money on war making, it’s not far off.

  5. NASA solar scientist Hathaway works for the US Government, a place where Interior Secretary Sally Jewel said:“I hope there are no climate-change deniers in the Department.”

    He probably said what he did in fear of losing his job.

  6. Hathaway is woefully wrong! This is true because he is either trying to protect his job and income stream by towing the party line or he honestly doesn’t know any better. Either way it is time for him to wake up and smell the coffee and learn the truth. There is no AGW! There are only cycles and more cycles and mankind is too insignificant to have a serious effect on climate unless something incredibly stupid is done like having a global thermonuclear war. Even then the effects will be temporary.

  7. For some time I’ve seen Sun spot count published here on the website and my self being something of an amateur astronomer with two telescopes and have looked into the history of telescopes and other astronomer’s.
    If they took a telescope that was made 400 years ago and used it observe the sun the same way they did back then I think they are in for a surprise as they are not going to see as many sun spot’s as they do with todays state of the art modern equipment they are now using.

  8. He was doing so well there, he was basing his prediction on past observations and testing his theory, great science. But when asked about climate change he reverted to religous dogma. Sad really.

  9. A Maunder Minimum that won’t mitigate the effects of global warming? Hathaway believes this in spite of 20+ years of failed predictions and several recent winters where parts of the NH have already seen some of the coldest and snowiest conditions in decades?

    I guess Hathaway (NASA scientist)knows which side of the bread his butter is on.

  10. This guy wants it both ways, saying the earth may be entering a solar grand (Maunder level) minimum event.

    But he contradicts himself by saying plainly that such a major cooling event would be no match for effects of the mighty AGW.

    I have to call BS on that, both for his duplicity and for his assessment that AGW will conquer all. And this guy should get off the fence. No one likes people that want to be correct no matter how things go.

  11. Wow – you have data that the sun is entering a low activity phase and yet still profess that AGW is going to continue. These people are hopeless.

  12. Since there essentially is no anthropogenic climate change, there is nothing really to counter Mr. Hathaway.

    • Oh, there’s definitely anthropogenic climate change. But… it is neither global nor uniformly in a single direction. The so-called urban heat island is AGW. So are the far greater regional changes caused by agriculture and irrigation. The truth is that we can’t, and now are unlikely to ever be able to, sort out what’s natural.

      • It is my belief that to think we are not a part of nature is foolish. I.E.: anthropogenic causes are as much natural as solar causes.

  13. No mister Hathaway you’re right on this: we would need a full ice age to counter the warming effects of ACC or AGW and to make you realize how irresponsible people like you are.

  14. Hathaway is incompetent government employee.
    Its were the incompetent thrive.
    It was him back in 2005 that pounded the table, that
    cycle 24 was going to be bigger than 23.
    He could see the light but would loose his position if he did not kneel down to the junk science gods that pay him. There is only one way to get man made co2 down. Kill people.

  15. flatlining ???

    does this mean
    the sun’s going to croak ?

    no more worry about fossil fuel
    we’ll all be fossils

  16. “Such a minimum could wreak havoc by curtailing agricultural growing seasons, leading to lower wheat production.”

    That’s my main concern. It was fun to heckle the warmists, but if places like florida and south texas are going to be hitting freezing temperatures in winter yearly now; the world’s going to have food shortages that’ll rip up family budgets and country economies and could lead to wars over land that can still grow food.
    Good thing we’re using crops for fuel.

    • I’m sure Comrade Putin and his intelligence mates know full well what is about to happen. The Ukraine is a crucial grain region that also has year round sea access and has gas pipelines through it.
      A smart UN might offer assistance to Australia and Brazil to expand certain facilities and establish long-term contracts to supply grains to Russia.

      • The US government is buying land in Australia if a commenter on WUWT is correct.

        The elite know full well an ice age is on it’s way, CAGW is for fooling the ignorant masses and sucking up as much wealth as possible.

  17. The scientific community knows that when a press release is made or an opinion given about their speciality, they had better toe the CAGW line. Government and university scientists who do not spout CAGW know their career is kaput.

  18. “Although the rise of global temperatures “seems to have currently leveled off,” says Hathaway, even a Maunder Minimum would still not be enough to counter the warming effects of anthropogenic climate change.’

    This is a required add-on to any report by any scientist relying upon the government for his livelihood.

    The rest of his report (without the mea culpa to global warming) is what mstters in the real world.

  19. Sounds like Hathaway is hedging his bet to keep from being blackballed by the UNIPCC and Mann et al. He is probably right about everything except the hedge at the end.

  20. Hathaway’s solar cycle forecast for sunspot cycle 24 was way off, and his climatic outlook is even more off.
    Any one that can make a statement that even a Maunder Minimum would still not be enough to counter Anthropogenic warming effects is clueless which he is and has proven to be during the recent past.

    What he says I put 0% stock in.

  21. Well , as a government – employee can mr Hathaway tell a different story than the official party-line without risking his job ? I think it is very sensible what he is doing and most of his colleagues as well , by sticking to the official party-line . With the maniac Obama in charge he hoes not have a lot of choice , does he ? Anyway Obama is a bastard and he will surely behave like a bastard if you stand him in the way of his climate dream world . You Americans choose for him and now it is your problem how to get rid of a despot . Well these are exciting times we are living in .

  22. ‘even a Maunder Minimum would still not be enough to counter the warming effects of anthropogenic climate change’. I hope that I live to see this Maunder Minimum when the old Earth shows how little we matter: about as much as a few pill bugs under a stone.

  23. Hmm,
    Wonder what the expansion ratio of the sun is in comparison to the earth expansion currently?

  24. Hathaway also predicted this cycle, solar cycle 24, would be stronger than Cycle 23. He could not have been more wrong then, than now. He claimed he knew exactly how the sun’s conveyor belt worked and he understood his data. Some things rarely change. He is paid for this. What will they do in the face of the pending reality?

  25. Although the rise of global temperatures “seems to have currently leveled off,” says Hathaway, even a Maunder Minimum would still not be enough to counter the warming effects of anthropogenic climate change. (I think Hathaway is woefully wrong on this point.)

    True believers in the Church of Al Gore must NEVER commit heresy and say Mann Made Global Warming will NOT happen, regardless of what the sun does or does not do. After all a miniscule amount of CO2 is VASTLY more important to the earth’s climate than the sun.

    • The tone of the article and the fact Hathawaysays more about the effects of the sun then man made change tells me he was LITERALLY forced to write that blurb in there against his will if he wanted ANY hopes of his works being published.


      Notice how L.S. is always claiming TSI doesn’t change and is careful not to address the changes in EUV and UV.

      Of course L.S. is from Stanford home of the Population Bomb and Eco-science authors.

  26. They were wearing hoodies tonight in KC.Hall of Famer,Jim Palmer just asked:”Where’s global warming?”

    The con is wearing thin.

  27. I don’t think he really believes what he just wrote because they are forced to mention man made change or the peer review people won’t publish it.

    Sorry folks but that’s the way the unwritten rules are.

    Have you watched the documentary movie Expelled? It explains how our school systems have been indoctrinated and is a VERY popular movie that opened the eyes to many.

  28. Friday in the UP of Michigan and we are covering the plants again for the forecasted temp of 26 degrees. and I should also add it is snowing as it was yesterday.

  29. More from the baseball world:It was 38 degrees for this afternoon’s game in Chicago.Cubs announcer asked:”Aren’t we supposed to get a better spring and summer after a harsh winter”?

  30. Tell theat to people of serbia,bosnia,and slovenia…
    Here is terible sicuation,people are in danger,because of great flood,weather report here said this is never before seen thing in the serbia,Since they are mesuring rainfall 1877, the thing like this never happend,but i do believe in 1600 did hapenin during the Mounder minuimum,People shoud start preparing for this,this is sixt time in the last two years theat they are declaring the state of emergency.

Comments are closed.