Now heading into a Little Ice Age, says astrophysicist

“Little Ice Age (Maunder-Dalton) circulation patterns are emerging and more rapid world cooling is taking over,” says astrophysicist Piers Corbyn.

“The Sun’s magnetic field is getting into a muddle as one half of it changes out of step with the other and this muddled behavior is likely to become very marked in MAY,” says Corbyn, of

“The sun is entering a ‘muddled’ magnetic state. This strange behavior was pointed out by Japanese researchers from the National Astronomical Observatory of Japan and the Riken research foundation* who say this was the sort of behavior which probably took place during low periods of solar activity in the past** and which drove the world into a cold state of longer winters, cold Spring months and lousy summers.

“At the same time independent observers have noticed an increase in Little Ice Age type (Maunder-Dalton type) weather events and circulation patterns around the world such as more extreme hailstorms and cyclonic cold weather in Britain and Ireland with the Jet stream shifted well south***.

“These changes and findings increase our confidence in our forecast made two years ago of general world cooling and our specific forecasts for individual months and regions such as for an exceptionally cold May this year in central and east Britain and West Europe – and which comes with the present very warm weather in East Europe which we predicted 4 weeks ahead.

“Although these developing circulation patterns are generally cold the wide-amplitude swings of the jet stream of which they are part also mean there will be some warm or very warm spots. This happened in March with a generally cold or very cold Northern Hemisphere while the UK and USA were warm and extremely warm respectively.

“May will also see dramatic contrasts and we will have more of a grasp on the boundaries between contrasting parts in our detailed May forecasts for Britain and Ireland, Europe and the USA issued at the end of April.



** Eg the Maunder Minimum around 350 years ago and the Dalton Minima around 200 years ago.


See entire article:
Thanks to Sonya Porter for this link

“Can’t say I like the man himself,” says Sonya, “but his forecasts seem to be correct most of the time.”

57 thoughts on “Now heading into a Little Ice Age, says astrophysicist”

    • I believe the Sun has all the clues, specially the magnetic field (which is also changing dramatically on Earth), in this case we should not pay attention to the conflicting “interpretations” and all their biases and agendas, but to the intensity of the field and make up our own minds.
      Have an independent thought about all this.
      If the Sun changes, sooner or later we’ll change too here on Earth in the same direction.

      • During typically normal solar cycles, the Sun changes its magnetic polarity every 11 years, and the Earth’s magnetic field does not switch everytime that happens.

        • The changes I referred in the Sun are those of the strength of the cycle and it’s consequences on Earth’s climate.
          The fact that both magnetic fields may be quadrupolar simultaneously, or at least becoming very weak simultaneously, is remarkable and probably it’s the first time it happens in this Interglacial.
          I say that because Earth’s magnetic field is known to have been much stronger before, and loosing strength slowly, but the process has accelerated recently.

        • beat me to it:-)
          our magnetic pole shifts are far longer apart and somewhat erratic. the suns usually quite predictable..except for the recent cycles somewhat jumpy stop/ start.
          I can’t see why some here think Piers needs to tell all, he is a PRIVATE researcher and his info is not paid for by taxpayers funds, he has the right to some privacy and to retail data to help others while supporting his own ongoing research, surely?
          if he says hes unsure about something…then no one else is likely to be any better informed, he IS the cutting edge his field its his own. No one else to my knowledge is covering so many factors and trying to find correlations and cause and effect.
          I write to him and find him to have a good sense of humour and informative in replies.
          Hes a Polymath and maybe a bit busy wih a huge range of harm in that.
          we who pay attention to his warnings owe him a lot. animals and crops as well as personal safety and comfort.

          • OK Laurel, first I want to clarify that I do respect you and your usually very insightful comments. I do respect Piers too for his good track record because this means that he has some good knowledge behind his predictions, which is an excellent thing IMO, but I disagree with privacy part.
            I don’t think science should be kept private, not the essential aspects of it.
            To share his basic knowledge so that others could draw an independent opinion about his conclusions would be the fair way to conduct scientific business, IMO of course.
            Regarding the magnetic fields, the very different periods that characterize their polar reversals is what makes the present situation very remarkable, because there is a finite chance that they could go quadrupolar simultaneously.
            BTW, I usually like your comments very much and read them with great interest.

  1. Warm weather in Eastern Europe will last until 15 May, then a cold front will came from northern latitude. I wonder how hot this summer will be in Europe.
    More and more scientists says an little ice age will start, an Maunder Minimum, records are falling one after an other…….
    So, little ice age or big ice age(with USA and Europe under ice)?

    • Little or big – agree, that’s the question.

      The financial crisis is not helping either. The little (poor) people will suffer the most.
      How did previous civilization ended?
      Are we next?

    • I bet the “big one” is coming, if right now or a little later it’s not totally clear: it’s something totally new that we have no parameters of reference in our lives or the lives of anyone in history.
      This interglacial won’t last much longer.

    • Even if the “big one” comes only in 100 or 200 years we should already start to prepare, do you agree?

      • Well, if the “big one”, an Ice Age comes even as early as 100 years, won’t most of us be gone? At my age I know I will.

        • @ F.Guimaraes
          looks like an moderation error, anyhow we spouse to be prepared for an ice age by now, i think that our preparation time is almost gone…

        • What about your kids or grandkids??? Don’t we have a responsibility if we believe the possibility of a calamity to act to protect our antecedents??? However, I don’t think we have to worry about an ice age. I do believe that the weather is becoming more unpredictable though. And again, the climate of this beautiful planet is controlled by the sun, the movement of the planet around the sun, and nothing to do with a trace gas that is exhaled by all of us every day!!!


  3. And still the morons running our government keep screaming about global warming. The fools are doing nothing to prepare for the coming cold. As I’ve said before, those that are perpetuating this myth should be arrested and tried for crimes against humanity.

  4. Well,Sonya, I think that the “man himself” is fantastic – I have been following his work for the last year, and it is very impressive. His attitude towards conventional meteorologists is entirely understandable – he is driven to frustrated distraction by their continual pedalling of dangerous misinformation – it would test the patience of a saint!Roll on the next paradigm – and well done to Piers Corbyn for having the strength of character to stand his ground.

    • Maybe he’s just defending himself against the large plethora of nonsense that has invaded many areas of science, but I still think that he should be more open and detailed in his comments, give more references, etc., and if he doesn’t completely understand something (which is quite natural in science) he should just say it.

  5. Wouldn’t it be great if we had a separation of state and science so that scientists could study this very important climate epoch without politicians muddying the waters?

    I feel blessed to be alive at this particular point in time and space to witness this great climate shift.

    If we do enter a little ice age state then I pray politicians will rediscover honor and virtue and do what it takes to help their fellow men.

    • I agree, these are important times not only because they will shape humanity’s future for a long time, but also because it looks like Mother Nature is trying to give us some spiritual lessons along with the changing weather.
      The great question is: are we really paying attention?

  6. I’m interested to know whether Robert adheres more to a smooth entrance into some form of iceage scenario or persistent cooling, or if Robert seriously considers the likelyhood of a magnetic pole reversal/excursion in the near future, with probably dire consequences on a global scale for nature and mankind, one of the results being some form of sudden iceage event.
    For instance, If one studies the interesting site of the belgian researcher Patrick Geryl,in which he postulates the hypothesis of an imminent, catastrophic magnetic pole reversal, based among others on the highly accurate Maya calender and a similar ancient, accurate Egyptian calender, both indicating that the Sun will produce a socalled CME killershot round December 21st, 2012, then we’re looking at a probable end of our civilisation, very drastic indeed.
    According to his findings, Venus plays an indicator keyrole in the upcoming magnetic reversal of the Sun, by its retrograde behaviour in the Orion constellation this summer.
    For some reason, this upcoming reversal would be unique in its severity, maybe linked to certain alignments of other planets, that may help trigger the killer shot CME. One of the consequences could be reverse axial rotation, as may have happened in the ancient past a number of times. Velikovsky has pointed out these axial reversals, as recorded in ancient annals. A sudden axial reversal would indeed spell the catastrophic end of our civilisation, due to mega earthquakes and mile high tsunamis ! Hope it won’t happen for obvious reasons.

  7. Piers Corbyn has his predictions, which are remarkably accurate, and in this regard it’s interesting to listen to him, but I have this problem with his statements because I usually cannot follow exactly what he’s saying and therefore cannot form my own opinion. In this sense his statements are less than scientific, which is a pity having in sight the great contribution that a knowledge with this good track record would represent for the myriad of people who are following the (possibly) greatest problem of our time: the present weather patterns and their meaning for humanity’s future.
    Last but not least, the word “muddled” seems to me very inappropriate to describe the magnetic field of the Sun, “quadrupolar” sounds much better and more scientific IMO.

    • “Muddled”, while not a scientific term is used in this case to mean a confused or disordered state. As far as Quadupolar goes, why not Sextupolar, or Octopolar… The way I see it Quadrupolar wouldn’t really describe the Sun’s magnetic behavior should it’s axial poles achieve a consonant magnetic state. It seems likely that if this occurs, then the Sun’s equatorial region would manifest several, not just two regions of opposite polarity to the axis polarity. Multipolar may be the best term for this phenomena.

  8. I have commented before but will again that the climate has been changing for some time now. And that does not mean the planet is warming. Just the opposite. It is getting colder and will continue getting colder regardless of fools in Washington. It is almost too late to prepare, but survival, at least in this country will depend upon what we and should – must – do.

    • So I’ll ask this question again… Is it going to take 20 to 30 more years to begin cooling off, down here on the Gulf coast? Because if it does, I’ll probably be dead by then and would like to have something more to look forward to instead of just more heat and humidity!!!

  9. The last mini iceage to make international news in our lifetimes was the mid 1970s and ending that decade. Not sure if it was predicted at the time by similiar changes like the ones going on now,namely the low sun activity,global erradic jetstream oscillations,intense volcanic activity,magnetosphere. Is there a connection from the 70s mini iceage to the imminent one about to begin as being forecast??

    • Yes, there are important connections (of cycle C20) with the present cycle (C24), especially the “stretching”/delay of the polar reversal that happened then and is happening now again.
      The difference is that the present delay is more pronounced and the radiation levels of the present cycle are well below those of the 70s.
      The reason we’re still not feeling the full force of the present grand minimum is the sequence of 3 very strong cycles (21, 22 and 23) which warmed up the entire planet between then and now, with a peak around 2007 IMO.
      What happened in the 70s is not considered a little ice age by the experts, probably due to the intensity of the effects. Even what happened at the beginning of the XX century (another strong minimum centered at cycle C14) is not considered a mini ice age either. The name is reserved to more strong cooling periods like the Dalton minimum and, especially, the Maunder minimum which is the most intense cooling period that we’ve had so far (middle XVII century).
      The present minimum is looking similar to the Maunder one, that’s why is important to be prepared for it.

    • Say Igor. If it’s believed we’re headed back into a mini iceage, like the 1970s, is it possible for the weather down here, say like Houston Texas, to be like it was back then? Also, how long do you think it’ll take to see that type of weather again? At my age I hope it’s in the next 20 years or so.

      • Finally something I can totally agree with!!! Yes, climate change is indeed happening, and yes it is almost totally caused by that big yellow ball up there that keeps us so warm and toasty all the time in southeast Texas. I did not know about a “mini ice age in the 70’s”. I do remember hearing about all the snow in Buffalo New York, I think in 77, but in our neck of the woods, all we had was a little frost on the wind shields once in a while.

        • Big article back then,found it. An editorial in the Time magazine on June 24 1974 quoted concerned scientists as voicing alarm over the atmosphere growing gradually cooler for the” past three decades””the persistence and thickness of pack ice in the waters around iceland and other harbingers of an iceage that could prove catastrophic”. That’s what I remember in the news,was just the tail end of consistent winters not quite a global dalton or maunder stranglehold on comfortable climate temps.

  10. All that is going to happen is a solar minimum time, maybe like the dalton or maunder time. We are living in different times comparing to the 16h00’s and I think it will bring such a huge food shortage on this planet that it scares me!! The Mayas according to my belief were no scientists but cruel barbarians but because they worshipped the sun, they figured and noted its cycle out over their time of existence. There might be a bigger solar cycle we don’t know of?

  11. My Grandfather used know an old man that told him a story about people ice skating on the Thames not too long ago
    I wonder if this is really true

    • I wouldn’t call what occurred in the 70’s as a “Mini Ice Age”. It was simply a normal cooling cycle. The cooling cycle we’re facing now looks like it will be much worse, but still probably not of the scale of the actual “Little Ice Age” which we must remember lasted for several hundred years.
      The one ending in the 1970’s lasted about 30 years. The coming cooling cycle could last twice as long…

    • Don, people did skate on the Thames in the winter of 1962-63. Starting around Christmas, 1962, the cold was unrelenting for about 9 weeks. In January, 1963, London had many days when the temperature remained continuously below freezing point. I remember a news item at the time which told of a car being driven across the frozen Thames. Around the Kent coast ice floes appeared up to several hundred metres out from the shore.

  12. In australia Inidgo Jones long weather forcaster in the 1900s forcast every drought and flood during his life he used the sun ,moon,and past records so I belive that the sun has a major influence on our climate not CO2

  13. It seem my Historic Geology Professor is being proven right in what he told the class back in the late 60s. A increase or decrease of 5 degrees could set off a ice age.

  14. My grandfather was a farmer until he stopped betting on the weather, he was not a betting man.

    He told me that it takes over 90 days for some crops to mature, but only one cold night to kill them all.
    He explained when he was younger, last century, there was a year that was for the most part very warm all summer, except the one day they had a freak cold snap in the middle of that summer, and frost. I did not listen very much about those things because I was young and he said a lot of things that, at that time of my life, went over my head. He has been gone now for over 30 years, I can’t ask him the questions I have on my mind now that I have grown.

    Seems to me there are those who aren’t farmers, but do bet on the weather to make their fortunes.
    Seems that if astrophysicist Piers Corbyn is saying that we are going into a mini ice age, we should see at the least more precipitation, Larger and more volcanic eruptions, and crop failures due to cold and or blights and molds that haven’t been bothering us for decades, maybe even centuries.
    I should be able to go ice fishing like I did in my younger years around here too. I have liked the warm weather and am not a fan of colder winters but if Piers is correct and he seems to beat the house more than most, moving south may be in my forecast.

    • Terry;
      Corbyn is correct. But don’t forget that climate change is a phenomenon that occurs VERY slowly, so be careful not to judge his prediction based on the weather events of the next few years.
      This is the mistake that many have made in the past. Watch what happens for the next 20 to 30 years, and then decide if he was right.

    • i dont know about you.. but during the last ten years or so the weather has become much wetter and humid during the summer where i live.

  15. A Wolf or Sporer Minimum seem to be due to a periodicity of about 130 years, while the Little Ice Age appears to be on a cycle of about 1460 years. If the coldest part of the LIA was about 1600 CE then 1600 + 730= 2330 CE would be the peak of warming, all else equal.*
    *Unstoppable Global Warming Everyt 1,500 Years
    by Avery & Singer

  16. Piers short term predictions are not reliable at all I know I tracked them for a few months with spread sheets and stuff. Thats not to say his long term predictions wont be true but his short term stuff is rubbish.

    • David, a few months of tracking IS a short term observation.. even shorter than Piers’.
      i think you should not jump to your conclusions quite so quickly.. or at lest try not to talk like a hypocrite.

  17. As I look at a chart of the past 4500 years, I notice that the warm periods between the cold periods has been shrinking, and the cold periods have become longer and colder. Based upon a “Simple” observation, one would assume the next cold period would return sooner and be much colder.
    See chart at bottom of page:
    Notice where they place 2011 on the chart.
    Of course, Dr. landscheidt predicted the cold would start around 2012 way back in 2001. Naturally, others are also “Seeing” similar patterns.

  18. F. Guimaraes says:

    The present minimum is looking similar to the Maunder one, that’s why is important to be prepared for it.

    There is no evidence to support this claim which everyone now seems to be getting on this particular band wagon. The Maunder was over a long time span with perhaps 3 occurrences of solar down turn. I do not see any reasoning to suggest we will see 3 downturns this time around but open to anything you can provide. My own research suggests only one downturn, if so the current event will be weaker than the Dalton..

    The polar fields should have flipped at the end of cycle C23, around 2008-2009, but they continued with the same polarity, showing a stretched pattern,

    The polar fields only flip before or near cycle max (upslope of the cycle).

    which could be the realization of the so called “Livingston-Penn” effect, which predicts a similar phenomenon in the near future,

    The L&P method is very suspect and not needed for a grand minimum. Some are grabbing it as a legout if their predictions fail for SC24.

    The changes I referred in the Sun are those of the strength of the cycle and it’s consequences on Earth’s climate.
    The fact that both magnetic fields may be quadrupolar simultaneously, or at least becoming very weak simultaneously, is remarkable and probably it’s the first time it happens in this Interglacial.

    The non reversal of poles probably happens every time a grand minimum occurs. The breakdown of the cycle is required to explain the subsequent small cycle that follows. Truth is we dont know as we have never measured it.

  19. Theres nothing new under the sun.
    In the last half million years we as humans have exprienced several glacial periods each lasting around 80-100 thousand years. These have been puntuated by interglacials were we breed and party big time. The last 3 interglacials lasted 6000 to 9000 yrs. The present interglacial the Holocene has been going strong for 11500 yrs. Each interglacial has a climate optimum of which we humans experienced from 3000 to 500 yrs BC. We are now begining to see the twilight of this interglacial.

    We are about to face 80 – 100 thousand years of glaciation, no more party.

    Just consider if you will what a hundred thousand years of colder weather would do to humanity how it would change our thinking and mold our bodies. How we would say goodbye to civilization, art and literature our sole purpose would be to survive and adapt. I wonder what the last humans looked like when they emurged out of the previous glaciations and what culture they had lost in their battle to survive, food for thought.

    We have so much potential in these short beautiful summers but that old reptillian brain of ours f**** it up each time.

    • Well Bones, although i do agree with your basic premise that we have been through several glacial periods.. i do not believe that experiencing a new one will change us in any way whatsoever, otherwise those previous periods would have already done so… we have already experienced 1000+ years of colder weather in our past… we have yet to change from that from … our evolution has not really progressed since we became homo sapiens.

  20. John McC said in part…..
    ” I remember a news item at the time which told of a car being driven across the frozen Thames.”

    In Feb 1963 at Old Windsor, Berks I drove my 1071 Mini Cooper’S’ down the slipway near the Bells of Ouzeley pub and onto the frozen Thames and drove a mile to Runnymeade, as far as the weir, now M25 bridge area, turned round and drove back up the slipway. That night we had an ‘Ice Party’ with about 300 people on the ice and two large barbecues and booze from the ‘Bells’. I left at about 4:00am. Plenty of people drove their cars on the icy Thames that winter.

    • Here in Belfast it’s 7C outside right now and the temperature is not expected to rise during the day – on the 10th May! It will be colder than the temperature recorded on Christmas Day. I watched Monday’s marathon with hands numb from the cold. Our local forecasts for the week ahead show little improvement. I would say that crops in the northern half of the UK and Ireland are in some danger this year.

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