IPCC Fatal Error – Neglecting ocean thermal inertia

“Goodbye anthropogenic global warming.”
– Dr Roger Higgs

IPCC Fatal Error – Neglecting ocean thermal inertia

The Earth is now cooling, says geologist Dr Roger Higgs, simply based on NASA’s online global monthly temperature chart showing that temperature peaked three years ago (February 2016) and is now declining quite steeply. If the cooling continues, “man-made-global-warming believers will by 2021 have to admit they were wrong and that CO2 is blameless and that Svensmark’s sun/cosmic ray/cloud/temperature link is correct.”

IPCC’s 2013 report (co-author physicist Dr M. Lockwood FRS) says the sun “cannot explain global mean surface warming over the past 25 years, because solar irradiance has declined over this period,” Higgs points out.

Instead, says Higgs, the IPCC blames man’s additions of CO2, a gas that totals just 1/2500th [400ppm] of Earth’s atmosphere [near plant-starvation level], and a mere 1/10th of previous historical values.

The IPCC’s error arises because Lockwood assumes Earth’s average surface temperature reacts almost instantly to solar-output changes, with a time-lag of less than 3 years, says Higgs.

But that assumption is wrong.

When Higgs cross-correlated solar cosmic-ray and Earth temperature graphs, he found that massive ocean thermal inertia causes, not a 3-year lag, but a 25-year lag.

This means that the sun CAN explain global mean surface warming over the past 25 years.

“The ‘man-made-global-warming’ idea is a fallacy whose time is nearly over,” says Higgs.

See entire article (just one-page long), with correlated graphs:

Thanks to Dr Roger Higgs for this link

Here’s some information about Dr. Higgs




23 thoughts on “IPCC Fatal Error – Neglecting ocean thermal inertia”

  1. This is not about cold or warm. This is about power and control and the sheep we have raised the last 2 or 3 generations are ready to be taken care of cradle.to grave.

  2. It is more than 100 years since Gunnar Birkeland talked about currents originating from the sun. Already at that time the established “scientists” ridiculed the idea.

    Maybe one day Dr M. Lockwood and “scientist” like him can be ridiculed for their thinking that solar irradiance is the only way the sun transfers energy to the solar system.

  3. If they are still making money off the “man made global warming” nothing will be admitted.
    This whole thing is about money, not science.

  4. While there is little to argue about in this article there is much that is not included in it. It is not as simple as the sun’s output is down and in 25 years we will see that. If you were to read Robert Felix’s book, “Not by Fire but by Ice” you would understand what I mean.

    While the sun is a variable star and it’s output does change enough to be noticed in the actions of our climate there is more to it than that. The variability of our star includes a variability in the magnetic reactions in the currents of the sun. The sun’s magnetic fields are felt here on earth. When the sun’s magnetic fields flip, increase or decrease there are changes in the magnetic field of the earth. These fields place enormous pressures on our so called tectonic plates, enough pressure that as they float they are moved. When these plates move they create cracks that can release pressures from below that cause large flows of magma from the earths interior. This means that even when the sun’s output decreases we could have an increase in ocean temperatures since the majority of the earth is covered by oceans. While a warm ocean sounds nice it means more rain, or perhaps I should say more precipitation. In cold climates this precipitation means snow. More snow than normal could mean hundreds of extra feet of snow in some areas or certainly several meters of extra snow in others.

    Extra snow is a problem. it takes a longer time to melt so that in the spring fields cannot be planted. When the snow does melt it leaves fields soggy wet so that machines cannot be used to farm them. Melting snow also means the ground is cold so that seeds will take much longer to germinate.

    It is all not good. On top of all that the extra snow reflects light of a weakened sun back into space for a longer period of time, this means longer winters, late springs and early fall.

    If the oceans are lagging in temperature of at least 25 years that could mean a lot of EXTRA snow. The sun is now starting a Grand Solar Minimum. We can hope that means a Maunder Minimum type of mini ice age, but we should pray that it does not mean a normal ice age which is the normal condition of our planet. Enjoy the inter-glacial while it is here.

  5. Beware of the switch.
    The watermelons (greens on the outside but bright red on the inside) will start using global cooling as their foil for government control of everything.

    • Fidel Castro said something like that about revolutions.
      Revolutions are like watermelons. The more you slice them the redder they get.

  6. The sun is the major source of ocean warming. But an additional source is volcanic heating and at a practical level it is not measurable and variations through time are unknown. In ocean physics, warm water is generated in tropical waters and is transported to temperate and polar regions. But over the last several years a “warm blob” occurred in the temperate Pacific. It was not a warm water mass that originated in equatorial waters and drifted north. Because of this I suspect that it was a pool of warm water generated from volcanic warming.

    • It just makes me wonder how much live nuclear fuel was drained into the Pacific after Fukushima. I bet Uranium can warm the waters as well…

    • And that warming and the water flowing around the surface of the oceans from whatever source drags in deep cold water from the Polar Regions to replace it over time, the oceanic overturning current is no different to a central heating system
      In the worlds case, the boiler is the Sun and to some extent volcanic activity again caused by major activities with the other Mass objects in the solar system, the pipes are the surface oceanic currents moving water to the radiative polar regions , and the radiators the polar regions and the NH major landmasses, much less so with the SH major landmasses because of the SH very small area of landmass compared to the boiler of the Southern oceans.

    • No amount of tax and regulation is going to fix a geological problem. It is highly probable that dissolved volcanic gases would have an effect on oceanic chemistry. More volcanic and geothermal activity would tend to acidify the water.
      The question is by how much? It is possible humans have almost nothing to do with this and that it is a geological event.

  7. The oceans have a mass about 272 times that of the atmosphere; and,
    The specific heat of water is ~4 times that of air; and,
    The density of water is ~1000 times that of air.

    Of course the oceans require far more energy to increase in temperature by the same number of degrees than ordinary air.

    Anyone who ignores the thermal capacity of the oceans or believes in the nonsense of “spreading sunlight all over the globe at one time such that the solar radiance is reduced to 239 W/m2” simply isn’t thinking straight.

  8. The TSI may or may not have declined over the last 25 years but if it has it will not be good news for AGW if the decline continues.

    The ridiculous thing about this argument is they are basically claiming an inert trace gas which doesn’t undergo phase change at ambient temperatures has greater heating capacity than the Sun ???

    The other thing that may or may not be relevant is that since the late 1800’s the solar activity measured by sunspots has been increasing cycle after cycle, with the exception of a weak cycle in the 60’s.

    From 1944 to the turn of the century there were 5 of the most active cycles ever reliably recorded in the whole period of observation and as the sun became more active temperatures on Earth began climbing.

    Since the late 90’s the Sun’s activity appears to be declining and this is obvious since 2008. Should this trend continue the the “pause” may well continue or become a modern cooling – time will tell.

    Interesting how a primarily solar scientist has been “converted” to the IPCC cause.

    • I beleive there are published papers showing TSI has declined much more than 1% during this Solar Cycle 24 with a similar reduced TSI for SC25 as well.

  9. Try standing outside at midnight in the middle of winter and tell me how well CO2 is keeping you warm compared to the midday sun. Yeah, CO2 my lovely warm blanket!

  10. The Green Brigade with the GreenParties dictum ‘CO2 causes our missery’ is still active. School youngsters are demonstrating against climate. After three decades of indoctrination brains cannot accept a change in knowledge. Also another GreenParties dictum is that government must behaves as an entrepeneur, sharing taxes for new technics to avoid upwarming. Despite this,and that, the math skills in european oriented schools are going down for almost three decades.

  11. With the official tests of stratospheric cooling coming online this year, expect the “flip” in the narrative to come as the solar minimum intensifies over the next decade. The taxing class will acknowledge previous weather manipulations and claim that these and not natural, cyclical variations in solar input and earth energy systems are the reason why we were saved from catastrophic increases in temperature of a degree or two C.

    The taxing class will demand money to poison our planet with stratospheric aerosols and the masses will eat it up. This will go well until we reach the bottom of the solar minimum and people wonder why food prices are through the roof and the harvests are marginal or worse year after year. You will then see another flip as the people wonder why they are still being taxed to make the world colder. The second flip will be to massive indoor farming, but it may be too late. David DuByne (Adapt2030) has been calling this for a while and it appears to be playing out as predicted.

    • I am sure what you call the “taxing” class is really the Private Central Bank Families…………same people

      What they are already doing is claiming the wondrous effects of the Green Revolution (all they have been preaching) have saved us from Global Warming, and that these moments of subjective cooling are proof that they are correct…………….clever little people, aren’t they…………………

  12. “…a gas that totals just 1/2500th [400ppm] of Earth’s atmosphere…”

    almost as strong as Warren’s Indian dna.

  13. Agreed with the sunspots, but, you forgot to add in, the magnetic connection between the earth and the sun. It Shepard’s in the ions at plasma level heat. Warming the atmosphere, making it way to the surface. Another interesting correlation is as our magnetic field dwindles, we get more cosmic Ray’s, creating more clouds, guess that’s why winter’s feel cold.

    • Your on the right tack for atmospheric heating, but look instead at the increase in size and long lasting coronial holes during the last 4 years of the solar decline and during the solar minimum, as well as the solar wind decreasing during the same period of time, increasing Cosmic Rays activity as it declines.
      Otherwise we would not get C14 and beryllium isotopes as proxy records which rise and fall with the Suns cycles.

  14. Only 25 years? not 700 years like some “scientists” said a few days ago? “Ocean cooling is caused by last mini ice age”

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