IPCC – The long-term prediction of future climate states is not possible

But it goes ahead and makes its phony predictions anyway.__________________

IPCC: “The long-term prediction of future climate states is not possible”

Future state of the climate based on a false premise
By Jim Ring

Here is the last paragraph in the IPCC Third Assessment Report, Chapter 14, Section 14.2.2.2:

“In sum, a strategy must recognize what is possible. In climate research and modelling, we should recognize that we are dealing with a coupled non-linear chaotic system, and therefore that the long-term prediction of future climate states is not possible.”

This information was not included in the Summary Report for Policymakers given to the press and public.

If the climate is indeed a coupled non-linear chaotic system (who can doubt the IPCC?) then there is no rational or scientific basis to make a definitive statement about a future state of the climate.

At this point the coupled non-linear chaotic nature of the climate makes scientific observations academically interesting but individually they have no relevance in predicting the future state of the climate. The climate is a system, which means the relationships among these observations are what is important, not the observations themselves.

Future state of the climate based on a false premise

All the public discourse regarding the future state of the climate has been based on the false premise that the current climate models are predicting the future state of the climate when in fact the models are merely projecting these states.
Predictions are the purview of science. Model projections can only agree with predictions when the models duplicate the real world which the IPCC says is impossible to do.

To base public policy on an unknowable state of a system defies common sense. However, too much money and political power is at stake for the Central Planners to do otherwise.

Climate Model Believers are the ones taking an unscientific approach

I would argue that the Climate Model True Believers are the ones taking an unscientific approach to the subject.

In January 1961 President Eisenhower in his Farewell Address identified the situation in which we find ourselves today:

“Akin to, and largely responsible for the sweeping changes in our industrial-military posture, has been the technological revolution during recent decades.

In this revolution, research has become central; it also becomes more formalized, complex, and costly. A steadily increasing share is conducted for, by, or at the direction of, the Federal government.

Today, the solitary inventor, tinkering in his shop, has been overshadowed by task forces of scientists in laboratories and testing fields. In the same fashion, the free university, historically the fountainhead of free ideas and scientific discovery has experienced a revolution in the conduct of research. Partly because of the huge costs involved, a government contract becomes virtually a substitute for intellectual curiosity. For every old blackboard there are now hundreds of new electronic computers.

The prospect of domination of the nation’s scholars by Federal employment, project allocations, and the power of money is ever present and is gravely to be regarded. Yet, in holding scientific research and discovery in respect, as we should, we must also be alert to the equal and opposite danger that public policy could itself become the captive of a scientific-technological elite.
It is the task of statesmanship to mold, to balance, and to integrate these and other forces, new and old, within the principles of our democratic system — ever aiming toward the supreme goals of our free society.”

Other relevant publications: The True Believer and “The Temper of Our Times from Eric Hoffer.

From The Temper of Our Times:

“Every great cause begins as a movement, becomes a business and eventually degenerates into a racket.”


11 thoughts on “IPCC – The long-term prediction of future climate states is not possible

  1. well if that isnt clear enough for even the most gullible simpleton to understand;-)
    and its VERY obvious why they omitted it then and ongoing isn’t it?

  2. I created a graphic that I used on Facebook for this core concept from the Working Group I : “… we are dealing with a coupled non-linear chaotic system, and therefore… the long-term prediction of future climate states is not possible.”

    https://www.flickr.com/photos/exit78/45378613294/

    I have made it publcd domain so that anyone who wants to use it may.

    Sure, I understand that this is cherry-picking one statement out of a 2 page section of a larger document. However, given the propensity of the media (and others) to lean toward the worst aspect of any topic, this is actually pretty profound.

  3. Excellent posting. This is what anyone with any scientific knowledge knows (or should know) already.

    Also – I rarely see any measurement or prediction touted by these racketeers with a level of confidence attached to it. One wonders why…You never hear “It was 0.01 degrees C hotter than last year +\- 0.2 degrees” do you?

    But that’s the sort of stupidity we’ve had to put up with!

    • It is not stupidity that fails to mention confidence levels but a deliberate act to try to make it appear that global warming is still happening. Given the total rise is so small, the confidence factor is high in comparison.

  4. Equally the UKCP18 is making predictions of possible temperature rises of over 5C for British summers by 2070. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-46343103

    However in the accompanying document to the report UKCP18 Guidance: Caveats and limitations we get the following astonishing admission:

    Our understanding and ability to simulate the climate is advancing all the time but our climate models are not able to represent all of the features seen in the present day real climate and there are still limitations in our ability to project 21st century weather and climate.

    So if climate models can not accurately model present day weather how can a projection for 50 years hence be regarded as anything more than a best guess

    https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/mohippo/pdf/ukcp18/ukcp18-guidance-caveats-and-limitations.pdf

  5. Well written in the post, and well said Gareth!
    Quote: But that’s the sort of stupidity we’ve had to put up with!
    There is nothing more stupid than a politician chasing votes from the latest climate ology and MSM snowflake propaganda focus group update and the fairy tale of the Emperor’s new clothes is ever more apt.
    To paraphrase Clinton and Gore, “It’s the Sun stupid”!

  6. I now quote from my memory, so a mistake can be made: The UN has changed the lonterm temperature from 5.7 C above the projected temperature in 2030 to 2C above projected temp. in 2030. That year will be according to the view of the UN, a tipping point for the human race. The newsservices only mention the UN as reliable source of science, here in NL and of course the Dutch weatherstation . Just wait and see if it will getting colder or warmer. Both has their advantages and disadvantages to all some opinions. But a opinion is just an opinion, nothing more. Nature is an opinon too, as it seems. It still isn’t as cold as in 1945-1970, anyhow in NL

  7. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/earthquake-seismic-waves-mayotte-madagascar-volcanic-activity-science-a8659236.html
    According to the National Geographic, analysis by the French Geological Survey suggests the new activity may point to huge movements of magma beneath the earth’s crust, miles offshore and under thousands of feet of water.

    Large movements of liquid rock, or reverberations through the magma chamber can cause waves similar to those measured in this instance.

    GPS measurements of Mayotte’s slow movements indicate a magma body measuring about a third of a cubic mile is pushing through the subsurface, and this could be the source of the weird waves.

  8. What I find especially frightening is the extent to which the US government has been infiltrated by liberals, despite President Trump’s attempts to “drain the swamp”. You will see this even now as eve Fox News has been reporting on climate change citing “government reports” that contradict what many of us on this website know.

    A large part of the problem comes from the fact that the US government has been particularly actively trying to recruit “young people” as employees (for example through the ORISE program that provides 2-3 years of paid internships with government agencies… but is only available within the first 3 years after a person graduates from college).

    I was a Federal employee for over 12 years, until my recent retirement (Oct 31). In this time I worked for 2 public health agencies that work for the military (the Navy and Marine Corps Public Health Center and then the Defense Health Agency). During all that time I either worked directly for the Epidemiology Data Center Department or they were my customer… and the vast majority of all employees in that department were Millennials (most of which were first hired through the ORISE program). Of those, I’d estimate 99% were extremely liberal, including a number of people who openly said they were Communists. The vast majority of them basically worshiped the Obamas… and voted in the last presidential election for Hillary or wrote in a vote for Bernie Sanders. Only TWO of the youn people I ever met in this whole time were conservative… and of both of them were later hounded out of the workplace by the ganged up liberal lemmings.

    So… no surprise to me that I see news reporting there are now US “government reports” that claim humans cause climate change. I expect it will get worse over time as these young Feds gain power in government… not matter who the president is.

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