“When the fragile economy is destroyed, health care will not exist either.”
– Phil in Vancouver, B.C.
Is this a reason to risk economic destruction?
Phil in Vancouver, B.C.
I’m no epidemiologist but simple math and discernment (I hope) shows we’re risking economic collapse when it’s clear the COVID mortality rate in the worst off country, Italy, is within range, or no worse than this season’s American flu mortality rate when comparing apples to apples, if the CDC range estimates for this season are to be believed, over which no one panics with insane reactions and policies.
This is just looking at numbers, regardless of how each country is handling the pandemic.
Prior to the COVID panic the CDC reported over 100 children died (ACTUAL INSTANCES) from the flu this season. No collective panic and economic destruction. I didn’t even know about it.
Poke holes, if there are any. I include source links at bottom.
1) *Less than 1/8* of reported COVID deaths have *direct COVID causality*. Prof Walter Ricciardi, “scientific adviser” to Italy’s minister of health, says “On re-evaluation by the National Institute of Health, only 12 per cent of death certificates have shown a direct causality from coronavirus, while 88 per cent of patients who have died have at least one pre-morbidity – many had two or three”. Source at bottom.
*2)* Italian Civil Protection chief Angelo Borrelli estimates the number of infections in the population is *10x the number of confirmed cases*. Source at bottom.
– There are 92K known COVID cases in Italy. Per Borrelli above, this means there are as many as 920K people infected in Italy. The second oldest population on earth, unhealthy, low vit D (source at bottom), heavy smokers who live with their younger family members.
– There are 10K reported COVID deaths in Italy. Per the above, 1,200 deaths have direct causality from COVID.
= 1,200 deaths with direct COVID causality / 920K estimated cases
= 0.13% COVID mortality rate in Italy. None of this 10% mortality rate garbage. Compare that to a 0.1% flu mortality rate in the US.
Is this a reason to risk economic destruction? Looks like the solution is to lock up the old and infirm, quarantine the sick, bring in the Chinese to build massive temporary hospitals and help with the care, and the rest of us go back to work and continue the economy. Otherwise, when the fragile economy is destroyed, health care will not exist either.
Regarding how COVID deaths are tallied in Italy:
Prof Ricciardi maintains that Italy’s death rate may appear high because of how doctors record fatalities.
“The way in which we code deaths in our country is very generous in the sense that all the people who die in hospitals with the coronavirus are deemed to be dying of the coronavirus.
“On re-evaluation by the National Institute of Health, only 12 per cent of death certificates have shown a direct causality from coronavirus, while 88 per cent of patients who have died have at least one pre-morbidity – many had two or three,” he says.
– This does not mean that Covid-19 did not contribute to a patient’s death, rather it demonstrates that Italy’s fatality toll has surged as a large proportion of patients have underlying health conditions.
– There are also other factors that may have contributed to Italy’s fatality rates, experts say. This includes a high rate of smoking and pollution – the majority of deaths have been in the northern region Lombardy region, which is notorious for poor air quality.
Experts have also warned against making direct comparisons between countries due to discrepancies in testing.
Regarding child flu deaths:
Regarding estimated number of infected in Italy:
– Testing for the coronavirus has often been limited to those seeking hospital care
– Italy’s tally of coronavirus cases is probably ten times higher than the official figure of 64,000, the head of the agency collecting the data said today.
– Health chief Angelo Borrelli said it was ‘credible’ to suggest that as many as 640,000 people could have been infected, because only a fraction of them have received the necessary tests.
Regarding what actually brought the COVID numbers down in Wuhan:
– The latest data from Hubei province, where the virus emerged, suggests this is also the policy that has brought the virus under control there. China is now ending its lockdowns, gradually, with no surge in disease. And a recent study by scientists at Huazhong and Harvard universities, based on data from more than 30,000 cases in Wuhan, suggests that although the lockdown and a traffic ban slowed the virus, it was not enough to stop the epidemic from growing. What really brought the numbers down was the decision to introduce targeted quarantines. All suspected cases went to hotels and all confirmed cases went to in-field hospitals, where they could be monitored. Only the most severe were then transferred to real hospitals.
Regarding low vit D in Italy:
– Therefore, based on the previous considerations it could be hypothesized that low vitamin D could be the link between age, comorbidities and increased susceptibility to complications and mortality due to Covid19 infection in the northern regions in Italy.
– Two other further general considerations may contribute to the argument of contribution of low vitamin D to the impact of Covid19: a) in severely compromised patients: patients with acute illness, whether they are in the intensive care unit or not, have very low levels of 25(OH)vitaminD (11) Moreover, some authors think that poor vitamin D status may aggravate the health outcome of ICU patients and correction with (high doses) of vitamin D of poor vitamin D status could decrease morbidity and mortality (12); b) in general population: home confinement is the most used preventive measure against the spreading of Covid19 infection in many Countries and in Italy in particular. Total absence of sunlight exposure may cause in large part also of the younger population a decrease or worsening in the vitamin D status. (13)