July 2019 Was Not the Warmest on Record, says expert

“How does one estimate temperatures in a 1 million square mile area where no measurements exist?” asks Dr. Roy W. Spencer. “One of the questionable techniques is to simply guess.”
__________

2 August 2019 – “Note how distorted the news reporting was concerning the temporary hot spells in France,” says Dr. Spencer. “Yes, it was unusually warm in France in July. But look at the cold in Eastern Europe and western Russia. Where was the reporting on that? How about the fact that the U.S. was, on average, below normal?”

In above image, note that many land-based temperatures were colder than normal.

Current official pronouncements that July 2019 was the hottest month on record come from a fairly limited and error-prone array of thermometers which were never intended to measure global temperature trends, says Spencer.

“July 2019 was probably the 4th warmest of the last 41 years,” says Spencer. “And being only 0.5 deg. F above average is not terribly alarming.”

“The global surface thermometer network has three major problems when it comes to getting global-average temperatures,” says Spencer.

(1) The urban heat island effect has caused a gradual warming of most land thermometer sites due to buildings, parking lots, air conditioning units, vehicles, etc. Since  most of the global land surface remains mostly rural, “the best strategy would be to simply use only the best (most rural) sited thermometers. This is currently not done.”

(2) “Ocean temperatures are notoriously uncertain due to changing temperature measurement technologies (canvas buckets thrown overboard to get a sea surface temperature sample long ago, ship engine water intake temperatures more recently, buoys, satellite measurements only since about 1983, etc.)”

(3) “Both land and ocean temperatures are notoriously incomplete geographically. How does one estimate temperatures in a 1 million square mile area where no measurements exist?”

One of the questionable techniques is to simply guess temperatures

One of the questionable techniques used (by NASA GISS) to get temperature estimates where no data exists, says Spencer, is to use land surface temperatures in July around the Arctic Ocean to simply guess temperatures out over the cold ocean water and ice where summer temperatures seldom rise much above freezing.

See entire article:
http://www.drroyspencer.com/2019/08/july-2019-was-not-the-warmest-on-record/

Thanks to Roy Spencer for this link


13 thoughts on “July 2019 Was Not the Warmest on Record, says expert”

  1. german techs ADMIT the station giving the highest evah! temp is a DUD station with a huge UHI effect
    but they wont shut it down or refuse to use the erroneous temps because???
    it might give skeptics ammunition to fight the agw meme that keeps them getting funding etc.

  2. We have a major ice age coming. There is no need to listen to anything else. These lunatics who are into the warming crowd are just trying to destroy our economy with their disgusting lies, deceit and utter nonsense!

    Do not look at them, read anything from them or pay ANY attention to them because they are a big waste of time.

    End of story!

    • You correctly are saying there is a coming ice age of what depth and duration, we don’t know. You incorrectly are saying they are trying to destroy the economy.

      The nature of the changes that are being pushed for the energy production realm have little to do with the economy, but everything to do with survivability in the ice age looming in the near future. As I have said many times, and will continue to say, this is about reducing the population of the northern hemisphere, where basically most of the advanced civilizations developed due to development of the carbon fuels that were available.

      Unless we suddenly decide to start building nuclear generation facilities about 10 years ago, and we didn’t, life in Europe and the northern half of North America is going to be drastically reduced. The Russians appear to be having sense enough to prepare for what is coming, so a frozen Earth will still have a Russia, though it may not have a lot of other northern nations.

  3. I sent this to the UK DAILY MAIL, the top selling UK newspaper following a 8/3/19 news report stating that July 2019 was the “HOTTEST MONTH EVER RECORDED ON EARTH”.

    Lyn Jenkins,
    Cardigan,Wales,UK.
    Letter to the Editor

    Lyn Jenkins
    13:48 (2 minutes ago)
    to DM

    Dear Editor,
    Your report on Saturday August 3rd is headlined “Was sizzling July the hottest month ever recorded on Earth”?
    That is a huge claim…….with no scientific back-up !
    I suggest that readers peruse IceAgeNow.info and read the report headed
    “July 2019 was not the warmest on record says expert”.
    Dr Roy W Spencer States …” Note how distorted the news reporting was concerning the temporary hot spells in France. Yes it was unusually warm in France in July,but look at the cold in Eastern Europe and western Russia.Where was the reporting on that? How about the fact that the US was on average, BELOW normal?.”
    I suggest that everyone should study the GLOBAL weather reports on IceAgeNow.info before making such parochial claims following a hot July day in the UK.
    Yours faithfully,
    L J Jenkins,
    Clyn-yr-ynys,
    Gwbert,
    Cardigan,
    Wales.
    SA431PR

    2 August 2019 – “Note how distorted the news reporting was concerning the temporary hot spells in France,” says Dr. Spencer. “Yes, it was unusually warm in France in July. But look at the cold in Eastern Europe and western Russia. Where was the reporting on that? How about the fact that the U.S. was, on average, below normal?”

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    July 2019 Was Not the Warmest on Record, says expert
    August 3, 2019 by Robert
    “How does one estimate temperatures in a 1 million square mile area where no measurements exist?” asks Dr. Roy W. Spencer. “One of the questionable techniques is to simply guess.”
    __________

    2 August 2019 – “Note how distorted the news reporting was concerning the temporary hot spells in France,” says Dr. Spencer. “Yes, it was unusually warm in France in July. But look at the cold in Eastern Europe and western Russia. Where was the reporting on that? How about the fact that the U.S. was, on average, below normal?”

    In above image, note that many land-based temperatures were colder than normal.
    Current official pronouncements that July 2019 was the hottest month on record come from a fairly limited and error-prone array of thermometers which were never intended to measure global temperature trends, says Spencer.

    “July 2019 was probably the 4th warmest of the last 41 years,” says Spencer. “And being only 0.5 deg. F above average is not terribly alarming.”

    “The global surface thermometer network has three major problems when it comes to getting global-average temperatures,” says Spencer.

    (1) The urban heat island effect has caused a gradual warming of most land thermometer sites due to buildings, parking lots, air conditioning units, vehicles, etc. Since most of the global land surface remains mostly rural, “the best strategy would be to simply use only the best (most rural) sited thermometers. This is currently not done.”

    (2) “Ocean temperatures are notoriously uncertain due to changing temperature measurement technologies (canvas buckets thrown overboard to get a sea surface temperature sample long ago, ship engine water intake temperatures more recently, buoys, satellite measurements only since about 1983, etc.)”

    (3) “Both land and ocean temperatures are notoriously incomplete geographically. How does one estimate temperatures in a 1 million square mile area where no measurements exist?”

    One of the questionable techniques is to simply guess temperatures

    One of the questionable techniques used (by NASA GISS) to get temperature estimates where no data exists, says Spencer, is to use land surface temperatures in July around the Arctic Ocean to simply guess temperatures out over the cold ocean water and ice where summer temperatures seldom rise much above freezing.

    See entire article:
    http://www.drroyspencer.com/2019/08/july-2019-was-not-the-warmest-on-record/

    Thanks to Roy Spencer for this link

  4. Big news stories this morning (August 3) about melting of the Greenland ice sheet and forest fires in Siberia. Are these phenomenon really outside of the midsummer norm? How credible are the estimates of ice volume melt?

    The AGW true believers are ecstatic with joy when localized temperatures exceed the long term average. When it goes the other way, they say, “Oh, that’s just weather.”

  5. San Francisco is a city with microclimates and submicroclimates. Due to the city’s varied topography and influence from the prevailing summer marine layer, weather conditions can vary by as much as 9 °F (5 °C) from block to block……

    Northern California above the Bay Area is also well known for microclimates with significant differences of temperatures. The coastline typically averages between 17 and 19 °C (63 and 66 °F) during summer months along that coastline, but inland towns not far from the ocean such as Lakeport, average as much as 34 °C (93 °F) in spite of being just around 40 miles inland. …

    The coastal areas in the Andalusia region of Spain typically average around at 30 °C (86 °F) in summer, but Tarifa only averages 24 °C (75 °F)….

    REF: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Microclimate

    Perhaps a series of satellites armed w/the proper tools – could measure the averaged temps of very large areas of Earth’s Surface – so as to get a better ‘picture’ of Earth’s Temp at any given time. .. Other than that – we simply ask the GWAlarmists: “Show us the Justifiable Science Data!” whenever they make claims of “Hottest Year in the History of Earth!”

  6. Hi Robert,

    In ‘Why Climate Models Are Pure Hokum’ tomOmason wrote: “Real science recognizes that repeatable measurements of very high accuracy and high resolution are needed for good, worthy science, and not averaged means or approximate guesses.” I totally agree with this

    However, you just wrote: ““The global surface thermometer network has three major problems when it comes to getting global-average temperatures,” says Spencer.”

    Hence, I must conclude that Spencer is not a worthy scientist because his science is calculating the average monthly global temperature from satellite data.

    Averaged data is not actual data. However, in the measurement of the solar radiation actually incident upon the earth surfaces, there are times during the day when the magnitude of this radiation is changing significantly. NOAA in its projects which measures the incident solar radiations and air temperatures continuously, but reports the measured data in two different ways. In the Surface Radiation (SURFRAD) project, the values being measured are reported for each minute. Which creates a huge data file of measurements. But it allows one to see how rapidly the value of the radiations (solar and long wave IR) being measured can change.

    In the United States Climate Reference Network (USCRN) project it averages the values measured during the previous hour and reports this mean value with the maximum and minimum values which have been measured during the previous hour. These maximum and minimum values are actual data and the use of them allows an actual scientist to do actual science.

    Have a good day, Jerry

    • I’m with you there Jerry.
      My point of view is that climate is a local/regional phenomenon and not a global one. Sure, as far as temperature can be measured at any point on the land or seas (currently so much appears tainted by ‘adjustments’ ), we can average that data to get a sort of ‘global’ figure but that figure is without much meaning, it has the local resolution of … this planet?
      As for “I must conclude that Spencer is not a worthy scientist because his science is calculating the average monthly global temperature from satellite data.”
      I believe that he’s a good scientist, it is just that I do not believe that the task he has set himself gives us much insight as to what is happening with our climate at the moment — certainly all the comments about what happens from one month to the next are not useful. When there is a hundred years (or more) of data then we should be able to pick out some of the patterns in this averaged temperature. He is however in the perfect place to notice any alarming changes in many aspects of our atmosphere.

      For me it is what is happening in any particular location on the ground that is important. Have we yet managed to link the averaged global temperature to local/regional climate effects? IMO no!
      With weather though, if temperatures rise or fall rapidly in a location, especially if that is where people live, or where much of the food for a population is grown, then the effects can be very impactful. Science should be doing all it can to help ameliorate the worst effects by working on improvement to methods for very high resolution, accurate weather forecasting (IMO to a maximum of seasonal timescales). Hopefully that is what happens with the data from the United States Climate Reference Network (USCRN) project. Forecasting for periods much longer than seasonal are fraught with accumulated errors, and instances of chaotic/random occurrences. That’s not to say longer period forecasts can’t be done, it just that their accuracy is not particularly good.

    • As for climate models I look at things like https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00135.1 , and what Kevin Trenberth said in journal Nature (“Predictions of Climate”) about climate models in 2007:

      None of the models used by the IPCC are initialized to the observed state and none of the climate states in the models correspond even remotely to the current observed climate. In particular, the state of the oceans, sea ice and soil moisture has no relationship to the obsered state at any recent time in any of the IPCC models. There is neither an El Nino sequence nor any Pacific Decadal Oscillation that replicates the recent past; yet these are critical modes of variability that affect Pacific rim countries and beyond. The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, that may depend on the thermohaline circulation and thus oceanic currents in the Atlantic, is not set up to match today’s state, but it is a critical component of the Atlantic hurricanes and it undoubtedly affects forest for the next decade from Brazil to Europe. Moreover, the starting climate state in serveral of the models may depart significantly from the real climate owing to model errors. I postulate that regional climate change is impossible to deal with properly unless the models are initialized.

      ¯
      Therefore the problem of overcoming this shortcoming, and facing up to initializing climate models means not only obtaining sufficiently reliable observations of all aspects of the climate system, but also overcoming model biases. So this is a major challenge.

      I wonder are these virtual reality computer models really good enough to change the global economy for?

  7. Ian Campbell said “The AGW true believers are ecstatic with joy when localized temperatures exceed the long term average.”

    This is completely true and shows how weird the acolytes of the cult have become.

    Surely, if one truly believes mankind is on the edge of thermageddon from the demon gas CO2, then every announcement of extreme heat should be extremely distressing and not cause for celebration.

    But every announcement of dubious temperature “records” with impossible precision and results smaller than accepted error is greeted with smug satisfaction by the ill-educated cheer squads suffering from the hysteria of group think with an I told you so smirk of a true believer with unshakable faith.

    Is CO2 truly the demon gas ?

    The most IR active absorbent band is centred on wave number 666 and if that isn’t proof of its demonic origins then I don’t know what is.

  8. Jerry wrote “Averaged data is not actual data” and that is itself Pure Hokum !

    The satellite data is not averaged until it hits the lab in exactly the same manner employed by the organisations cited by Jerry.

    Why Jerry is seeking to insult some and mislead the rest of us possibly says a lot about character.

  9. Black gum already displaying a few red leaves here and there at 1500 ft on Paris Mtn in the upstate of South Carolina late last month. Sweet gum changing in places and most interestingly River birch shedding a few yellow leaves. This is about a month or more early than I would usually notice. It’s been very “normal” weather here, the 4″ per month precip average…no exceptional weather…will be funny if there is a cool cycle coming. But won’t be seen on TV or the WWW so I guess it will not exist.

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