Kalte Sonne (Cold Sun) – Many scientists now forecast cooling, perhaps an ice age

Russian scientists “refute the thesis of a global warming and denote it as a marketing ploy.”

Many parts of the world are still relatively warm because 2014-2015 is a new El Niño period, says Professor Fritz Vahrenholt,   author of the German book “Kalte Sonn.”  But by the end of the present solar cycle (around 2020) the cooling will increase.

Rarely has the sun been as strong as during the past five decades, says Professor Vahrenholt.

However, a few years ago the tide turned and the sun ended its hyperactive phase. Hardly anyone had expected the sudden turn-around. Solar physicist Leif Svalgaard of the Stanford University expressed his surprise in 2013 at the annual meeting of the American Geophysical Union meeting thusly:

“None of us alive have ever seen seeking a weak cycle. So we will learn something.”

Is it just a coincidence that the largest warming thrust of the last 500 years occurred during the sun’s hyperactive phase? asks Vahrenholt. And will the solar lull in the coming decades lead to cooling ?

Several studies make it increasingly clear that this is only the beginning! says Vahrenholt. The sun will lose in the coming decades in strength. In fact, this is now almost consensus among solar physicists.

Here are some of those studies:

  • Roth & Joos 2013: Solar activity in the 21st century will decrease to normal values.
  • Salvador 2013: The forecast is for a solar minimum and quiet Sun for the next 30 to 100 yr.
  • Wladimir Baschkin and Rauf Galiullin: We are heading for a new Ice Age.
  • Professor Cliff Ollier: Solar Cycle 24 has started and we can expect serious cooling.
  • H.S. Ahluwalia expects a new Dalton Minimum.
  • Goelzer et al., in the Journal of Geophysical Research, Dec 2013, also predicts a further drop in solar activity.

Not just cooling, we’re headed into an ice age

Russian researchers see the situation even more dramatically, predicting that a new little ice age will begin in 2014. They refute the thesis of a global warming and denote it as a marketing ploy.

The Russian scientists Vladimir Bashkin and Rauf Galiullin from the Institute of Fundamental Problems of Biology, Russian Academy of Sciences, think our entry into an ice age,  geologically speaking, is “imminent in the near future.”

Other scientists share this view , including Professor Cliff Ollier of the School of Earth Sciences at the University of Western Australia.

Ollier recently presented a paper in Poznan, Poland, in which he described the sun as the major controller of climate, but not through greenhouse gases. There is a very good correlation of sunspots and climate, says Ollier. Solar cycles provide a basis for prediction. Solar Cycle 24 has started and we can expect serious cooling .

Meanwhile, H.S. Ahluwalia, Department of Physics & Astronomy at the University of New Mexico calls for solar minimum of Dalton- type and recalls that the last minimum of this kind in 1810 resulted in a cold spell. (Journal Advances in Space Research , Feb 2014.)

Other recent works pointing to a cooling sun include:

  • Qian et al. 2014 ( ” Secular changes in the thermosphere and ionosphere Between Two quiet Sun periods” )
  • Zhao et al. 2014 ( ” modulation of galactic cosmic rays falling on the unusual solar minimum in between cycles 23 and 24″)
  • McCracken & Beer 2014 (“Comparison of the extended solar minimum of 2006-2009 with the Spoerer, Maunder, and Dalton minima in solar activity Grand in the past”) .


Thanks to Argiris Diamantis for this link

22 thoughts on “Kalte Sonne (Cold Sun) – Many scientists now forecast cooling, perhaps an ice age

  1. Are there any studies that track our solar sytems revolution around the Milky way in relation to solar activity? In other words, as our solar sytem is the closest to the center of the milky way does the sun activity increase (warm) and when it is at it farthest point decrease (cool) Hmmmm… food for thought!

  2. I think we can say we were duly and fairly warned about little and big ice ages. People now have no excuse and can not claim ignorance.

  3. I have never accepted the claim that “greenhouse gases” provide additional energy that causes more warming of the planetary surface than the Sun is capable of on its own – that is perpetual motion and absurd beyond belief.

    All of the natural energy on Earth comes from the Sun – this is indisputable.

    If there is a “greenhouse effect” at all it can only be that it causes a decrease in the rate of energy loss from the surface and predominantly at night. ALL of the “heating” comes from the Sun.

    We know that the longer a place is without solar energy input the colder that place becomes – the poles demonstrate this.

    Slowing down the rate at which something cools does not make it warmer without extra energy input – surely we all know that from using things like a vacuum flask ?

    BUT the coffee does not increase in temperature despite the vacuum flask “trapping” the radiation – a function these devices are especially efficient at – far more efficient than a turbulent atmosphere.

    The nonsensical claim that the Sun cannot heat the Earth beyond minus 18 degrees C is an absurd lie based on meaningless averages.

    Remember that when the Sun is shining on the Moon’s surfaces the ground temperature would boil water.

    Why can the Sun heat the Moon’s surfaces to over 120 degrees Centigrade but can’t do that on Earth ?

    Because our atmosphere prevents a significant amount of energy ever reaching the ground and water is capable of absorbing energy and evaporating without significant increase in temperature.

    Factor in about 30% reflection by the ground and atmosphere and about 19% absorption by the atmosphere and the percentage of the solar radiation hitting the ground is about a peak of about 51% of the solar constant of ~1367 W/sq metre.

    Plug 697 W/sq metre into the Stefan-Boltzmann equation and you get a temperature of about 60 degrees Centigrade as the maximum temperature that amount of radiation can cause.

    This maximum temperature is actually lower than the maximum ground temperature measured by satellites.

    The Lut Desert in Iran has been measured at 70.7 degrees Centigrade.

    And this is easily explained because there is less reflection from the darker ground surfaces and there is far less humidity.

    The net effect is the amount od radiation hitting the ground is increased from the 697 calculated above suing theory to a figure of 793 W/sq metre.

    793 W/sq metre is only about 58% of the Solar constant.

    Thank God our atmosphere reduces the amount of energy hitting the ground and thank god for water !

    Put an empty pot on the stove and it will soon glow red hot.

    Put water in it and it will never exceed 100 degrees Centigrade while water remains.

    Climate science- bah humbug !

  4. I would like to know what books Arigis Diamintis has on his reading list. He contributions to this blog are appreciated.

  5. It sticks out like a proverbial sore thumb..see
    http://www.landscheidt.info/ the Sun (actually the solar angular momentum) is modulated by the orbits of the gas giant planets, Jupiter, Saturn Uranus and Neptune. This modulates and probably causes the solar cycles. Jupiter’s orbital period and Saturn’s approximates the solar cycles 11yr and 22yr. Not exact but with modulation.

    • the book i referenced discussed that too, which i thought was cool and quite a statement on just who controls who in this solar system and just how insignficant our little blue ball and your suv are.

  6. “In fact, this is now almost consensus among solar physicists.”

    I have grown to loath this term.


    Last month at the Space Weather Workshop in Boulder, Colorado, solar cycle expert Doug Biesecker of NOAA announced that “Solar Maximum is here, finally.” According to his analysis, the sunspot number for Solar Cycle 24 is near its peak right now.

    Note: This site changes. To retrieve story enter May 21 2014 in archives:


  8. I understand that the Earth is wobbling back and forth over a 12,000 year cycle. At the end of the next cycle, the North Star will be Vega and the northern hemisphere will experience winter in the months June thru August. Perhaps this change over will also affect how the planet moves into a cold cycle again or not?

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