La Nina is coming!

“East tropical Pacific ocean is starting to cool, indicating a regime shift in the tropics and starting a cold ENSO phase,”says reader Martin Siebert.”It will very likely boost the #Hurricane season strength and have a major impact on the #Winter of 2020/2021.”

What is “ENSO”?

ENSO is short for “El Niño Southern Oscillation”. There are many ways to describe it, but the best version is probably from the NOAA Climate page:

“El Niño and La Niña are the warm and cool phases of a recurring climate pattern across the tropical Pacific – the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, or “ENSO” for short. The pattern can shift back and forth irregularly every two to seven years, and each phase triggers predictable disruptions of temperature, precipitation, and winds. These changes disrupt the large-scale air movements in the tropics, triggering a cascade of global side effects.”

Below we have an example of each event, the warm El Nino phase in 2015, and the cold La Nina phase in 2011. Graphics show sea surface temperature anomalies. We can see warmer/colder waters in the tropical Pacific in the ENSO regions.

https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/enso-cold-phase-impact-hurricane-winter-fa/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

Thanks to Martin Siebert for this link

“Covid won’t be the worst thing what’s happened!” says Martin. “No food (or less food) and there will be more diseases. It will get worse! :-/”


15 thoughts on “La Nina is coming!”

  1. Love you Robert, glad you’re not prattling out the dodgy COVID death numbers anymore, almost gave up checking here rolling my eyes in despair (:
    Thanks for the heads up as Australians would say or warning this is coming because it means rain, ta.

    I’ve just checked the SOI Australian bureau graph and yes indeed it has just tucked over the zero mark into possible rain coming here but it is curving back down again so there should be some dry Westerly winds and normal winter for a while yet and likely some cold winter weather if the sun is so weak. If the jet stream flicks up through the Australian bight and then blows through our deserts, we could still have extreme strong Antarctic winds kicking off bushfires again.
    https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/

    It looks like a rough 4 to 6 months after the next solar cycle we get a proper La Nina and the very first few sunspots of Cycle 25 have appeared on the sun in the last month, that would put us in the September zone for heavy rains.

    ‘Ongoing tracking of solar magnetic band migration indicates that Cycle 24 will terminate in the 2020 timeframe and thus we may expect to see an attendant shift to La Niña conditions at that time.’
    Predicting the La Niña of 2020-21: Termination of Solar Cycles and Correlated Variance in Solar and Atmospheric Variability
    https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMSH42A..05L/abstract

    Now I look at jet stream maps a fair bit to work out weather, and you can see quite clearly that mainly in the Northern Hemisphere a really weak solar stream makes the jet stream turn into a windy slowed down river shape, or a bit like a snake moving. This is making the extreme polar vortex from this winter to begin dipping down with the jet stream into the United States and will do the same to Europe, Russia and China, not good for summer.
    When the jet stream curve swings back up an example is the UK and Europe where it picks up warmer Atlantic winds but the sort of compression of the curve seems to intensify water content and brings serious flooding. You saw this go as far South as Africa and Saudi Arabia with flooding in the last year of cold solar activity.
    Sometimes in the last 2 years the jet stream split in summer over Europe, so Iceland was getting cold wet weather from the jet stream while the Middle East copped flooding. In the middle though there was no jet stream over Europe and the place turned into a big magnifying glass of solar rays and crops dried up while forest burned. This is what caused the California fires too.

    ” The authors find low solar activity, such as we are currently experiencing, is associated with an increase in winter jet stream blockings, which is the source of jet stream/polar vortex dips and record cold 2014 winter experienced in the US. The authors propose another solar amplification mechanism by which “a quasi-stationary high-pressure system in the eastern North Atlantic modifies the flow of the westerly winds. We conclude that this process could have contributed to the consecutive cold winters documented in Europe during the Little Ice Age.”
    Low Solar Activity Correlated To Jet Stream Blocking, Say Scientists
    https://principia-scientific.org/low-solar-activity-correlated-to-jet-stream-blocking-say-scientists/

    I check Spaceweather maybe 4 times a day and the thermosphere up there is actually getting colder, this is a bit serious for everyone regarding crops and possible flooding when La Nina comes to Australia and Asia.

    Thermosphere Climate Index
    today: 3.34×1010 W Cold
    Max: 49.4×1010 W Hot (10/1957)
    Min: 2.05×1010 W Cold (02/2009)
    https://spaceweather.com/

    I also look at the sky here in Brisbane, Australia and take photos of the sky a lot when they are pretty clouds (: I would have a grand collection going back to 2008 when I started using a digital camera.
    If I check Spaceweather and see low solar stream activity and high cosmic rays/protons inevitably half a day or less afterwards you can see these wispy clouds forming really high up in the sky. Sometimes they have that look of noctilucent clouds you get over the Arctic with low solar activity. They even have that prism look when the crystals make rainbow colours from the sun bouncing down through them.
    The reason I think is simple, protons are hydrogen without a negative charge, when they hit our atmosphere they jump onto oxygen molecules and water is formed so those wispy clouds are new water.
    This can be great or catastrophic if those jet stream curves dump the water from up there.
    I mean great in that some places with severe drought for the last few years like Australia and Africa finally get rain, but we won’t want the rain all at once.
    If we really knew and prepared for it to come it is a boon for farming, you just need ways to collect water in many places, not big dangerous dams which fill too high but lots of small ones in catchment areas so they can collect and divert flooding.
    Such a no brainer, where have we been on water management for the last century?
    I do not know???

    The shocking bushfires in Australia last year and drought had nothing to do with CO2 but a super weak sun that barely sent monsoon rains down into Australia.
    This solar cycle minimum has been the coldest in a 100 years, if you look at the records the 1913 drought in Australia happened with the same solar activity and millions more animals died back then so we grumble and forget that last year’s drought could have been worse.
    In Australia we also had the Federation drought that was shocking and occurred during a deep solar minimum.
    ‘The Federation Drought began in 1895 and reached its peak in 1901 and 1902.’
    Of note was a heat wave in America at the time in 1901 which was so bad it ushered in the petroleum age almost immediately.
    “In one day alone, 250 horses died in New York City, and by the end of July’s first week, public streetcars had ceased to run because horses could not be fed…’

    This article from Spaceweather dated August 2018 shows just how long the solar minimum has been affecting, I actually have photos of those wispy clouds beginning the Christmas of 2016, this has been a long time of weak sun with so much hot air talk about CO2 to be a bit funny. Look up people, out there…
    I don’t think this is a mystery, protons are hitting oxygen and making new water.

    “A MYSTERY IN THE MESOSPHERE: This summer, something strange has been happening in the mesosphere. The mesosphere is a layer of the atmosphere so high that it almost touches space. In the rarefied air 83 km above Earth’s surface, summertime wisps of water vapor wrap themselves around specks of meteor smoke. The resulting swarms of ice crystals form noctilucent clouds (NLCs), which can be seen glowing in the night sky at high latitudes.
    And, no, that’s not the strange thing.
    Northern sky watchers have grown accustomed to seeing these clouds in recent years. They form in May, intensify in June, and ultimately fade in July and August. This year, however, something different happened. Instead of fading in late July, the clouds exploded with unusual luminosity. Kairo Kiitsak observed this outburst on July 26th from Simuna, Estonia:
    It was a mind-blowing display,” says Kiitsak. “The clouds were visible for much of the night, rippling brightly for at least 3 hours.”
    Other observers saw similar displays in July and then, in August, the clouds persisted. During the first half of August 2018, reports of NLCs to Spaceweather.com have tripled compared to the same period in 2017. The clouds refuse to go away.
    Researchers at the University of Colorado may have figured out why. “There has been an unexpected surge of water vapor in the mesosphere,” says Lynn Harvey of Colorado’s Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics (LASP). This plot, which Harvey prepared using data from NASA’s satellite-based Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) instrument, shows that the days of late July and August 2018 have been the wettest in the mesosphere for the past 11 years:
    “July went out like a lion!” says Harvey.
    In addition to being extra wet, the mesosphere has also been a bit colder than usual, according to MLS data. The combination of wet and cold has created favorable conditions for icy noctilucent clouds.
    Harvey and her colleagues are still working to understand how the extra water got up there. One possibility involves planetary wave activity in the southern hemisphere which can, ironically, boost the upwelling of water vapor tens of thousands of miles away in the north. The phenomenon could also be linked to solar minimum, now underway. It is notable that the coldest and wettest years in the mesosphere prior to 2018 were 2008-2009–the previous minimum of the 11-year solar cycle.
    http://www.spaceweather.com/archive.php?view=1&day=16&month=08&year=2018

    This means Australia is going to be hammered by heavy rains next summer 2020 and onwards for a round 3 years with absolutely no planning whatsoever to collect the water and stop people, our animals and houses from being washed away.
    This is the real incompetence catastrophe, it should have been seen coming for years, the bushfires last year could have been predicted for years.
    Most of it is solar driven and with all that measuring gear out in space we have the tools to predict this in the 21st century.

    I know CO2 global warming theory has largely been a scam by nuclear companies to convince a scared public to hand over taxes for new nuclear power stations.
    Maggie Thatcher in the UK was the one who threw money at Global Warming scientists to get rid of the coal miners. The end-result of Thatcher’s ‘clean nuclear’ policies is turning the UK quickly into a failed nations state with no cheap power anymore. They should have kept the coal mines going and ramped up ways to burn it efficiently.
    There would have been more jobs and they would not have had to throw barrels of nuclear waste into the North Sea where they are rotting at present or shooting it at Iraqi kids who now grow 2 heads and 6 fingers and we sit here saying ‘Iraq is failed nation state’ when it was our fault that we destroyed the country in the first place.
    Incidentally when that scumbag John Kerry was trotting around the world doing ‘global warming’ speeches and ‘clean ocean’ speeches an ex British paratrooper from the Iraq war sent a resolution to the UN to clean up the Uranium in Iraq. Could have cost 50 million to do, maybe less.
    This was 2014 and John Kerry blocked it at the UN and refused to disclose where the Uranium shells had been dropped in Iraq. So now we still have children playing with DU rounds in Iraq while we shrug our shoulders and whinge about COVID-19 killing us all. So selfish.

    England could install solar panels and dismantle those ugly wind farms. Each UK house with solar panels generates ‘a 3.5kW south-facing domestic system that will produce about 3,000kWh per year’
    Multiply that by 25 million homes and you have 75 trillion kWh in the UK.
    Keep coal powered plants open for really horrid winter weather in the UK and the power is sorted.
    Coal plants can also be turned off and on as needed.
    And miners get jobs back again, they were patriots once who saved Britain during the war and now cursed by politically correct fashion fascists.

    Here in Australia though we do not need more coal being dug out of the ground.
    We have recently taken prime farming land off farmers and told aboriginals you have to move “We have been made trespassers on our own country,” Burragubba said. “Our ceremonial grounds, in place for a time of mourning for our lands as Adani begins its destructive processes, are now controlled by billionaire miner Adani.
    “With insider knowledge that the deal was already done, Adani had engaged Queensland police and threatened us with trespass.”

    This land has been handed it over to the dodgiest Indian mining company and we handed over billions in tax money to make it happen while giving our water away to do it.
    This happens with all the mines here while the government cut bushfires services so badly for the last decade that we had a fire catastrophe last year.

    The world is now in a massive lockdown food crisis, Indian farmers could not even get workers to pick their crops this year, so it has all fallen off unpicked and rotted.
    Everyone is starving, 1.6 billion day to day workers lost their jobs and that means about 4 billion have not been paid in 2 months.
    What do we expect to happen?
    The same in America, queues for food bank pick-ups go for miles and 33 million unemployed wonder if they’ll get to the end of the queue before the food rations run out. The weather in the US was so bad last year from flooding and late planting with an early winter that around 10% to 20% of crops failed to grow or be collected.

    Food is the new gold, never mind masks, drugs, vaccines, and ventilators, that stuff is useless when 2.5 billion people don’t even have toilets or taps.

    Australia should shut these mines and put in farms again. Uranium mines too should go.
    I do not think the Indians need coal either, they need food and we should be taking charge of all this and sending food quick smart to help real people not some rip off tycoons in India.

    “A group of Australian farmers have joined the large coalition of groups fighting against Adani’s giant Carmichael coalmine, after they became concerned about the affects the mine would have on groundwater, biodiversity, rural communities and climate change.
    Farmers for Climate Action – a group of more than 2,000 farmers and agriculture leaders concerned about climate change – became the newest group to join the Stop Adani alliance last week.’
    “It’s too big a danger for the future,” Emmott said. “We need clean water. We need good soil. We need food security. And we have the potential to be a leader in renewable energy in Queensland. We don’t need to be reviving an outdated technology.”
    Farmers join fight against Adani coalmine over environmental concerns
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/jun/30/farmers-join-fight-against-adani-coalmine-over-environmental-concerns

    This mine is going ahead full bore, the government in NSW even permitted a coal mine to start digging under Sydney’s water reservoir, madness.
    What are we thinking, fracking is also a dead industry that only exists like the nuclear industry with tax payer bail outs.
    If I was in charge it would be a polite “Sorry, the contract for this coal mine is being ripped up.
    Here’s your refund now shove off and sulk.
    We’re planning going to grow food and buy out your supermarkets by the way and delivery top quality cheap food for your Indian poor.”

    As an aside, my house here in Australia has solar panels and we put more as much into the grid as we use.
    In Africa a group called Sun exchange is fitting off grid panels to schools, hospitals and businesses in a crowd funded move to bring power to everyone.
    Check them out, the world has changed and we can make a better normal.
    https://thesunexchange.com/

    So you know Robert. ta

    • “so there should be some dry Westerly winds”

      Um, Australia is a bit bigger than the eastern fringe that you inhabit. The westerlies are what gives southern Australia “winter” and resultant rains. El Nino/La Nina are of little importance to us (Perth, Adelaide, Melbourne, Hobart) and it’s the Indian Ocean dipole that matters.

  2. So what drives the ENSO? ALL oscillations require a driving force. They are not self perpetuating. Maybe a good idea to look upwards at the big bright ball that lives in the sky during daytimes.

    • The Sun’s energy and variations in the amount of UV being captured by the atmosphere. UV varies by 16% or more between the Solar minimum between cycles and the Solar Max @ the height of the cycle. Equally a Grand Solar Minimum like the one we are in now may reduce the amount of UV further because of lack of or significantly reduced numbers full sized Sun Spots during the max period.
      At the end of the day the earth’s climate is a chaotic heat engine, which stores or gives of heat dependent on whether the world jet streams are Meridional or lateral.

    • For a tropical wave to form into a tropical storm or hurricane the Surface Sea Temperatures have to be above 26C.
      In the Atlantic basin that surface temperatures depend on the hot dry air flow out of the Sahara picking up moisture and energy as it move from east to west. During Meridional Jetstream conditions that hot air move North, North West over to the Azores and into the westerlies heading for North West Europe.
      The last three reduced Atlantic storm season has been affected by such airflows.

  3. the Enso has started to swing to the near neutrl and hopes for it going into the neg areas means good rains and good crops refill artesian and dams lakes etc
    the summer drought was driven by theIOD so Africa copped the rains india and aus normally got and then some.
    I disgree a lot with CalCrilly above
    we need all the coal and to BULID more coal powerplants here
    small nukes if they must but we have a lack of water to put them in isolated spots ie too close to major populations for comfort.
    yeah Adani
    and why adani?
    because the greenies and the greentards in unions screwed the Aussie companies off DIY by Aussies
    bought shares and then did the greenwashing Im a shareholder and I dont want..routine with banks financiers etc
    Covids been a good kick in the arse for aussies and the govt so now maybe we rebuild our manufacturing and have people doing useful jobs not catering for tourism useless aimless lowskilled nothing jobs.
    trades and actual skills that create things again;-)
    get the wooolen mills back ditto our cotton mills as well
    no shortgaes of food for Aus using what land wenow have we supply 80% of that to OS markets
    Chinas being daft so the farmers cut the Barley sown , we can grow other stuff instead, no biggie. they halted 4 meat plants for import? into china..
    well Eu and UK and iindia etc will step in instead.
    once the present locusts have moved through Africas now very moist soils will allow them decent crops etc as well as good pastures for all grazing animals
    its not all bad;-)

  4. We know the general impacts of La and El Nino’s, but what happens when you lay on top of that predictions of one of the lowest solar cycles in 200 years, an uptick in particulate and gas emission due to increased volcanic activity, and magnetic shifts occurring?

  5. If that is so…then good odds for a big snow season in the Pacific Northwest. My snowmachine is ready.

  6. I wish they had come up with other names for these weather phenomena. I don’t know why (maybe because I know some Spanish?).. but I can NEVER remember which one is which without going back and looking it up.

    I KNOW it’s not due to a lack of intelligence on my part… I am a MENSAN. (Maybe some dyslexia or something tho… my youngest brother has it bad.)

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