Lockdown – “Probably the biggest single mistake that has ever been made in the history of the world”

Stop panicking – it’s over.”
Doctor predicts an IFR (Infection Fatality Rate) of somewhere around 0.1% (one in a thousand),  “about the same as severe flu pandemics we have had in the past.”
(Don’t overlook the point! Point one percent is ten times less than one percent.

“I look at your blog every day, good job!” says reader Leifur Arnason in Iceland.

“You also blog about the covid, lockdowns and such. Therefore I would like to point out Dr Malcolm Kendrick’s blog.”

The importance of understanding the difference of CASE FATALITY RATE (CFR)  vs INFECTION FATALITY RATE (IFR).  I think it is a bombshell.

Dr Kendrick: “ I had not spotted it. He did. All credit is his.” ( he refers to Ronald B. Brown and his report nr 6 on the page)  “ I am simply drawing your attention to what has simply been – probably the biggest single mistake that has ever been made in the history of the world.”


Here are some quotes from the above referenced article:

The best place to estimate where we may finally end up with COVID, is with the country that has tested the most people, per head of population. This is Iceland. To quote the Centre for Evidence Based Medicine once more:

‘In Iceland, where the most testing per capita has occurred, the IFR (Infection Fatality Rate) lies somewhere between 0.03% and 0.28%.’ 3

Sitting in the middle of 0.03% and 0.28% is 0.16%. As you can see, Iceland, having tested more people than anywhere else, has the lowest IFR of all. This is not a coincidence. This is an inevitable result of testing more people.

I am going to make a prediction that, in the end, we will end up with an IFR of somewhere around 0.1%. Which is about the same as severe flu pandemics we have had in the past. Remember that figure. It is one in a thousand.

It may surprise you to know that I am not the only person to have made this exact same prediction. On the 28th February, yes that far back, the New England Journal of Medicine published a report by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD (A.S.F., H.C.L.); and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta. 4

In this paper ‘Covid-19 — Navigating the Uncharted’ they stated the following:

‘On the basis of a case definition requiring a diagnosis of pneumonia, the currently reported case fatality rate is approximately 2%. In another article in the Journal, Guan et al. report mortality of 1.4% among 1099 patients with laboratory-confirmed Covid-19; these patients had a wide spectrum of disease severity. If one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported cases, the case fatality rate (my underline) may be considerably less than 1%. This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza.’ 

case fatality rate considerably less than 1%. Their words, not mine. As they also added, ‘the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza.’ 

At this point, you may well be asking. Why the hell did we lockdown if COVID was believed to be no more serious than influenza? Right from the start by the most influential infectious disease organisations in the World.

It is because of the mad mathematical modellers. The academic epidemiologists. Neil Ferguson, and others of his ilk. When they were guessing (sorry estimating, sorry modelling) the impact of COVID they used a figure of approximately one per cent as the infection fatality rate. Not the case fatality rate. In so doing, they overestimated the likely impact of COVID by, at the very least, ten-fold.

How could this possibly have happened?

When they put their carefully constructed model together on the 16th of March, if they had been reading the research, they must have been aware that they were looking at a maximum case fatality rate of just over 1% in China, right at the start, where the figures are always at their highest.

Which means that, unless COVID was going to turn out nearly 100% fatal, we could never get anywhere near 1%, for the infection fatality rate. Even Ebola only kills 50%.

But they went with it, they went with 1%. Actually, Imperial College reduced it slightly to 0.9%, for reasons that are opaque.

From this, all else flowed.

If the INFECTION fatality rate truly were 0.9%, and 80% of the population of the UK became infected, there would have been/could have been, around 500,000 deaths.

0.9% x 80% x 67million = 482,000


However, if the case fatality rate is around 1%, then the infection fatality rate will be about one tenth of this, maybe less. So, we would see around 50,000 deaths, about the same as was seen in previous bad flu pandemics.


What Imperial College London did was to use a model that overestimated the infection fatality rate by a factor of ten.

We now know, as the IFR rates of various countries falls and falls, that the Imperial College estimated IFR was completely wrong. The UK, for example, has seen 42,000 deaths so far, which is 0.074% of population. The US has seen about 200,000 deaths 0.053%. Sweden, which did not lockdown down, has seen about 6,000 deaths, which is an infection fatality rate of 0.06%. All three countries are opening up and opening up. Whilst the ‘cases’ are rising and rising, the deaths continue to fall. They are, to all intents and purposes, flatlining.

In Iceland it is around 0.16% and falling. In other words…

Stop panicking – it’s over

Whilst everyone is panicking about the ever-increasing number of cases, we should be celebrating them. They are demonstrating, very clearly, that COVID is far, far, less deadly then was feared. The Infection Fatality Rate is most likely going to end up around 0.1%, not 1%.

So yes, it does seem that ‘the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza.’

Thanks to Leifur Arnason in Iceland for this info and link

20 thoughts on “Lockdown – “Probably the biggest single mistake that has ever been made in the history of the world””

  1. CDC asking States to expedite licensing so vaccination sites can begin Nov. 1, according to CNBC , VOA, others.

    This particular vaccine co-developed by Moderna & NIH.
    Even while vaccine is being developed Moderna execs are massively selling their stock in the company: an ominous sign!

    If you need anything from a doctor, dentist, eye doctor, etc. try to get it before that date. It’s quite possible vax w/b a required prerequisite.

    This sudden frenzied rush may mean that TPTB are losing control of the narrative. That is, too many people don’t believe it & their numbers are growing. Everywhere I go I talk w people & masks or not– they don’t believe it. The most common thing they say: “It’s all politics.” Some say “NWO” and a few even say “Agenda 21.”

    • note: it’s very common for execs to collect their bonuses through option sales before they expire.
      as noted in May: “the sales were executed under 10b5-1 trading plans that were established in advance. “These transactions are executing automatically pursuant to these trading plans,” the company said.”

  2. fergusons rehashed model was utter crap
    exposed finally
    same modelling got millions of animals killed in the foot n mouth debacle needlessly
    be glad i guess they didnt decide to shoot every covid victim like they did the livestock

    and as for the actual TRUTHiness of the covid tests?
    as near useless as they can be it seems. both the PCR and Blood variants.

      • Laurel’s comments are in English.
        The real point is Ferguson game tech open source buggy model was used precisely because it is set up to produce Alarmist models to frighten Gullible MPs
        The Imperial College Cabal (37) are Socialist who hate BREXIT, and the fact that 17.4 million people vote to leave to EU after waiting years for the missing vote to reject the Lisbon Treaty. They also hate the current Conservative Government for allowing the vote and will do anything to bring it down.
        They and the Medical Dictatorship who now run the UK always know better and needed Ferguson’s propaganda to convince 640-0 MPs that doing nothing would guarantee 500,000 deaths by the end of May.
        Scotland votes 85 to zero using the same propaganda. Only in Wales did 6 Brexit WMP vote against the House Arrest laws or (lockdown)
        COVID is a mammalian virus not an Avian airborne flu, it also mutates rapidly with over 28 different versions in the UK. It is to my cost highly infectious. It is also transmitted by water droplet to surfaces and then by hand to mouth or more likely eyes.
        I caught my dose during a three hrs shopping window into Birmingham UK walking with the normal Chinese Tourists in China Town on the 3rd January what we didn’t know they had just flown in from Wuhan. 4 weeks to leave the house after nearly choking to death another monthly period to regain health, but OK now.

  3. The US numbers have been looking like this for months, once testing was increased. The pig-headed approach to this pandemic, based on case rate fatality statstics by deliriously over-enthusiastic experts who have not budged from their “sky is falling” stance, has given us economic chaos and mayhem in the school system.
    The sooner we stop lockdowns the better. At some point economic failure will be the only visible result of COVI-19.

  4. I do not agree the lockdown was a mistake. It was deliberate.

    The lockdown has destroyed the economy which is what the global warming Fanatics have been demanding for 30 years.

    Global warming fanaticism is about population reduction and the response to Corona fits right in. How are young people supposed to find each other, fall in love and marry when they’re wearing masks?

  5. Looking at testing does nothing. WHAT tests are actually proving anything? How do you test for a virus that no one has isolated? Answer is, you can’t test for that virus, you test for something else. There are no USEFUL or ACCURATE metrics dealing with COVID-19 UNTIL you have isolated the virus SARS-CoV-2 and proved that it is the cause of COVID-19.

    Until then, the world is being filled with fertilizer from the male bovine when it comes to this. The lock down was a farce for some purpose, but not to stop the spread of a virus that can’t be proved to exist.

    Reports like this are just an attempt to put lipstick on this pig we call COVID-19, and lend some sort of legitimacy to it.

  6. The hoax will be continued nearly into eternity . Today it is a positive pcr-test which is hyped by the health authorities , mainly civil servants by the way . the msm all bought by bill gates by the way , the socialist parties the democrates included and tomorrow they will produce more magic out of their sleeves riding on the normal wave of flu-like diseases appearing each autumn in the northern hemisphere which will be announced as the long expected second wave and this spring the wuhan laboratory will take another shot at weaponising a now innocent virus through genetic recoding , there is plenty of money available to renew the scare over and over again and to keep the population in a permanent state of fear . Open your eyes please and hear the truth that you are being made a fool of yourself by a couple of dirty , eugenic , wicked gangsters through fake computer-models like we are so familiar with in the global warming scams .
    Please free yourself of this filth of the earth and pray that common sense and reason may celebrate a victory over this devious cult . The covid-19 cult .

  7. And Dr Levitt gets yet another prediction correct. It’s OVER, DONE, FINI.

    The guy is on a roll. Maybe we should fire Tam and all the other WHO flunkies like Fauci and hire Dr Levitt.

    July 25, 2020: “US COVID19 will be done in 4 weeks [Aug 25] with total reported deaths below 170,000. How will we know it is over? Like for Europe, when all cause excess deaths are at normal level for week. Reported COVID19 deaths may continue after 25 Aug. & reported cases will, but it will be over.”

    The CDC has a “total/excess” deaths page so we can all track it here. Scroll down to the chart:


    And even though only 60% of deaths are reported this early I don’t see it climbing above the 5 year average. IT”S OVER FOLKS.

  8. It’s clear in the USA that the Democrats wish to keep the hysteria about Covid going as long as possible, so as you increase the chances of mail-in voting happening. And therefore a much easier to manipulate election in their favor due to the rampant voter fraud that would ensue. As it’s long been proven that mail-in voting is far more prone to fraudulent voting practices.

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