NASA – Next solar cycle will be weakest in 200 years

NASA dropped this bombshell announcement in a little-heralded news release coyly entitled “Solar Activity Forecast for Next Decade Favorable for Exploration.” In other words, NASA tried to make it sound like good news.

In the release, dated 12 June 2019, NASA described the upcoming decline in solar activity as a window of opportunity for space exploration instead of acknowledging the disastrous consequences such a decline could wreak on civilization.

Here are some direct quotes from the news release:

The Sun’s activity rises and falls in an 11-year cycle. The forecast for the next solar cycle says it will be the weakest of the last 200 years. (Emphasis added) The maximum of this next cycle – measured in terms of sunspot number, a standard measure of solar activity level – could be 30 to 50% lower than the most recent one. The results show that the next cycle will start in 2020 and reach its maximum in 2025.

Sunspots are regions on the Sun with magnetic fields thousands of times stronger than the Earth’s. Fewer of them at the point of maximum solar activity means fewer dangerous blasts of radiation.

The new research was led by Irina Kitiashvili, a researcher with the Bay Area Environmental Research Institute at NASA’s Ames Research Center, in California’s Silicon Valley. It combined observations from two NASA space missions – the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory and the Solar Dynamics Observatory – with data collected since 1976 from the ground-based National Solar Observatory.

In admitting that solar activity during sunspot-cycle 25 could be the weakest in 200 years, NASA was effectively forecasting a return to Dalton Minimum (1790-1830) conditions. But the release gives no mention of the ferocious cold, no mention of the disastrous crop losses, no mention of the ensuing starvation and famine, no mention of the wars over food, no mention of the powerful earthquakes, no mention of the catastrophic volcanic eruptions during the Dalton Minimum.

We’re talking about massive earthquakes such as the 1811-12 New Madrid Fault earthquakes, which caused the Mississippi River to run backward, created Reelfoot Lake, and rang church bells in Boston

We’re talking about killer volcanic events such as the massive 1815 eruption of Mount Tambora. The following year, 1816, is variously known as “The Year Without a Summer,” “The ‘Poverty Year,’ and ‘Eighteen Hundred and Froze To Death.’[1] Even though average global temperatures fell only 0.4–0.7 °C (0.72–1.26 °F), the resultant volcanic winter brought major food shortages across the Northern Hemisphere.[3]

The Canadian journal Macleans describes Canada’s climate during the Dalton Climate Minimum.

A soft rain began to fall in modern-day eastern Canada on June 5, 1816. By evening, it had turned to snow and, by the next day, Kingston, Montreal and parts of Quebec were blanketed. Some reports describe two-foot snow drifts in Quebec City. On June 8, the Quebec Gazette reported, “the whole of the surrounding country was in the same state, having the appearance of the middle of December.”

Birds, sheep, gardens and fruit trees all perished in the cold. In August, some lakes and rivers were still frozen as far south as Pennsylvania. Hastily planted barley and wheat crops yielded little before the real winter came around once again, not that it ever properly left. In southern Canada and New England, frost was recorded in every single month of the year….Entire farming villages in eastern North America, starving and weakened, picked up and moved west. 

Instead of mentioning all of this potential mayhem, NASA instead rhapsodizes about the “good news for mission planners who can schedule human exploration missions during periods of lower radiation.”

It may be good news for mission planners, but for the rest of us, look out!

While our clueless politicians stumble over each other in their misquided attempts to combat ‘global warming’ they remain blissfully unaware that we may well be headed into a little ice age.

This is no time to be destroying the energy we need to operate our factories, no time to be destroying the energy we need run our medical facilities, no time to be destroying the energy we need to grow our food, no time to be destroying the energy we need to  heat our homes.

As I have warned so many times before, I fear that we’ll be fighting the streets for food long before we’re covered by ice.

See entire press release:

Thanks to Steven Rowlandson for this link

37 thoughts on “NASA – Next solar cycle will be weakest in 200 years”

  1. “We” of this great site “Ice Age now” knew this was coming. Robert was smart to move to Texas where it will be warmer than the northern states. I hope you have a large area to grow food, Robert. When the “Fighting in the Streets” begin, we will have to stand guard on our gardens. I am planning to buy enough survival food buckets to last me several years, since the weather patterns could change on a dime and ruin my crops. I suggest other site visitors follow suit.

  2. Robert , Taking Hysteresis into account. About how long before we experience the Weather as Mr. Maunder experienced it? Am I correct in thinking NE has easily less than 5 years from today? Maybe 2-3 at best?

    • Steevo, this GSM started in 2008 with the start of SC24, the active cycle of this two cycle GSM. Other two cycle named GSMs are LALIA, Oort, Wolf (which put paid to the Vikings in Greenland) the first cycle of Spoorer (Multi GSM Period) and the first cycle of Maunder (Multi GSM Period) and Dalton. Each GSM is preceded by a 70 years Warm Period as now. As each warm period end with a GSM according to Swiss scientists it take 10 years for the effects of Cold, Wet and windy weather to be recorded in the fossil records or NA and European fresh water shellfish.
      I suspect you will find that NA has experienced a gradual worsening of winter periods since the start of 2008 as has Central Europe and Asia. Western Europe may experience its worst winter for some time, given that we normally get a bad one once every 10 years of so during the Solar Minimum period as now.

  3. NASA has a research center in Silicon Valley? Surprised they aren’t offering an IPO on Wall Street, since that’s how a lot of the SV ventures make their fortunes.

  4. Who can provide the links where NASA was repeatedly forecasting solar activity to be greater than it turned out recently and getting their forecasts wrong? (I came across the content but don’t recall from where).

    The question becomes were these legitimately wrong forecasts or actual attempts to negate those voices, from the other side, that were calling solar minimum big-time? Thus, being a deliberate misinformation campaign?

  5. sunspots might be lower but the flares are still possible as seen recently and coronal holes like the very large one that just seems to keep open and returning every revolution sure dont help earth magnetic fields. van allen belts are still an issue(amazing how apollos got through them isnt it no shielding and the pcs didnt pack it in?)
    WUWT ran a Judith Curry article on sunspots and weather effects last night Aussie time. well worth a read as she ties the sun cycles the other cycles and the Enso variances

    • During solar minimum periods of low output cycles SC5,SC6, SC11 to SC13, SC20 and SC24, SC25 and SC26.

      Large long lasting Coronial Holes are a significant feature of the Sun atmosphere during the SOlar Minimum Period, each rotating in the Sun’s Atmosphere every 28 days last months on end.
      These are directly linked to SAW events – Sudden Atmospheric Warming which produces blocking High presure systems which in turn lead to reversals of the normal West to East prevaling winds.

      European History since recording started in the 10th Centry is littered with such events Cold in Winter, Warm in Spring, and Hot in Summer with all three have a comon denominator – Drought.

  6. Cold kills: As Earth’s solar shield diminishes, Cosmic Rays penetrate Earth’s atmosphere to seed cloud-cover, inducing global overcast that drops temperatures to glacial levels.

    Asserting that solar activity during Sunspot Cycle 25 could be the weakest in 200 years, NASA effectively forecasts a 40-year Dalton Minimum redux (1790 – 1830). For obvious political reasons, the Agency ignores Dalton’s ferocious cold, shortened growing seasons with disastrous crop losses entailing mass disease and famine. Past Dalton-level episodes –nevermind Grand Solar Minima such as those of 1350 – 1420, 1645 – 1715– incited regional migrations plus “subsistence wars”, aggravated by strato-volcano or field eruptions (Krakatoa, Tambora; eventually Yellowstone); major earthquakes such as New Madrid (1811 – ’12); astro-geophysical factors ranging from Earth’s axial precession and orbital inclination to an ongoing geomagnetic field-reversal.

    Pending a Super-Grand Solar Minimum through c. AD 2110, Luddite sociopaths’ willful sabotage of global energy economies on behalf of crony-kleptarchs’ “Save the Planet” song-and-dance via a despotic One World Order bent on “eliminating” up to 95% of Earth’s 7-billion souls is a homicidal fantasy worthy of maniacal psych-wards.

  7. Thanks for the link to the power point.
    It seems that some at NASA wish to present some realistic research.
    With a practical concern for their own reputations who may not want to leave a sullied posterity.
    Perhaps the start of a popular uprising within NASA?

  8. I though NASA solved the radiation problem with the Apollo missions. There were several major flares during their travels.

    Unfortunately, Irina Kitiashvili can’t go back and check the mission data from Apollo. NASA lost all of it. Tons of tapes.

    Also, a little late to the table? Robert, Rolf, Christian, Ben and a lot of others have been stating this for years now.

    I remember how much I value their opinions now.

  9. Any time Robert. People need to be aware of the hazards they are facing for their own protection. Climate change is real; on the other hand it is a question of what kind of climate change. History and science would say it will be the cool or cold and wet type. Food is going to be a strategic national security and survival matter and so is border control for quite a while into the foreseeable future. Generosity and openness will soon be a thing for warmer and more prosperous times.

  10. I recommend some caution is all this. We have two predictions. One is that the solar cycle will hit a certain level and the second is that this solar cycle level will impact the climate in a certain way. We have not yet seen the predictions come true. It should be obvious that there are a lot of variables we don’t fully understand to consider. It is possible that neither prediction will be accurate and the reality we live through will be different. I just look forward to the test of the theories. Prepare for disaster? Sure, some of that is always wise.

  11. But will it be a Dalton Minimum? That wouldn’t be too bad, would it? I thought that experts were saying that we were heading for a Maunder Minimum? That’s the one to fear…

    • A Dalton type minimum would be devastating. Please consider that the 1816 year without a summer, the VEI 7 Tambora eruption, and the New Madrid fault zone rupture all occurred during the Dalton minimum. Besides, we have no way of knowing the severity of this downturn until it happens.

    • J.Hope. Maunder and Spoorer two separate but very complex Multi GSM periods each GSM separated by a cool Gleissberg period.

      Spoorer was the deepest of the LIA period but bracketing these GSM periods is the OOrt and Wolf GSM, the latter put paid to South West Greenland being a farming area, following Maunder is Dalton and flowing Dalton is is the modern non GSM Gliessberg Period with SC11to 13 as the active cycles.

      Our modern GSM is a two cycle GSM with an Active first cycle and a recovery conpanion cycle with a similar solar put to SC24. Oort, Wolf and Dalton are the same two cycle GSM although these three had two active cycles.

    • I think one should consider the Dalton minimum estimate to be conservative even though it will be severe enough. We might get that Maunder minimum any way but that will probably be obvious at a later date just like the 100 k year +/- major glaciation that awaits us all. No one has studied the onset of a major glaciation in progress first hand but we know from research that they do happen and there are interglacials of 11,500 years on the average between them. If we getaway with mini ice ages for a while we will be lucky because the world as in society is not ready for the big freeze. One thousand plus centuries of nearly year round winter. That is why Robert moved a little closer to the tropics.

  12. To be fair NASA is not the weather bureau.Weather authorities across the globe have been infiltrated by global warming advocates so this solar event doesn`t suit their warming theory and they conveniently ignore it. But if the solar event was to work against an “ice age” you can be assured it would be headlines. My answer to climate change is if it is changing drastically there isn`t a bloody thing us humans can do about it.

    • Very true Glen, but humans can do something about it – Adapt, they will need to with 1500 years from now the glacial tipping point should be reached around that time frame.
      First steps are to remove the CO2 endangerment ruling, second repeal many of the contrived legal findings made by the EPA and then close it down.
      Next deal with the Science fraud rife within English speak Universities, and then expose the fraud and the fraud within the UN, then cease funding it.

      • Really?
        How many can do it??
        How many jobs are available in the South?
        Can the Suthern half of America absorb +/- one hundred million?????

  13. It’ll not be favorable for space exploration by humans… sure, solar flares may be fewer, but cosmic rays are going to at a higher flux because the solar wind is insufficient to divert them.

    So it’s going to be less favorable for space exploration… the astronauts get a warning when a solar flare occurs, and can shelter in a well-shielded area until it passes… cosmic rays have no warning, can come from any region of space and carry sufficient energy to mess up the astronaut’s DNA badly, which is why NASA is wondering how astronauts are going to survive even the short trip to Mars without getting cancer.

    If they shield the spacecraft sufficiently to protect the humans from cosmic rays, it’ll be so massive that it’ll take even more fuel to get it to Mars in a timely manner, making it even more massive… then they’ve got to scrub speed to get into orbit around Mars, taking even more fuel for a more massive vehicle, making the vehicle even more massive… round and round until the vehicle is simply too heavy (and thus too expensive, given that it’d take multiple trips to get all the parts, shielding and fuel into orbit) to be worth it.

  14. So are you saying that the Dalton minimum created volcanic and earthquake issues? Is that something that’s been researched by anyone? That’s really interesting.

    • It’s not that the Dalton minimum created volcanic and earthquake issues, but rather extremely low sunspot activity (ie, GSM) has been shown to correlate with increased volcanic and earthquake activity on Earth. Something to do with the magnetic fields and Earth’s core.

  15. Wait, doesn’t it also mean Earth’s surface is LESS protected from cosmic radiation? (I seem to recall this from Dr.Zarkova’s talk, tho I may have it wrong.)

  16. Greenland glaciers growing rapidly. Global temperatures dropping rapidly (see the article on GDD) and cooling Milankovitch cycles 2019 and 2024 all occurring at the same time as a Grand Solar Minimum. But this solar minimum is special; it is the tail end wave of a Grand Solar Maximum so if you regard the Maunder baseline as zero, take the peak in solar activity c20thC from the baseline, invert and add to the baseline you get solar activity dropping precipitously equal to twice the level of rise from the Maunder minimum. But the time frame will be short; decades and maybe even years.
    We are not looking at a Maunder Minimum. This is the big one that returns the Earth to at least 45,000 years of glaciation

  17. There is one piece of good news in this.

    For years, whenever sunspots were mentioned as being important to the Earth’s climate, the climate change/global warming crowd would ridicule the scientists who made that claim.

    Now we have a climate change-controlled agency admitting the importance of sunspots (in a backwards way), and they emphasize their importance.

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