NASA scientist sees potential for ‘Godzilla El Niño’

Forecasters warn this winter’s El Niño could be historically strong.

Every few years, the water in the Pacific Ocean gets warmer than usual. The resulting El Niño (ehl NEEN’-yoh) brings heavy rains to California and changes weather patterns around the world.

Already the second strongest on record for this time of year, the current El Niño is  shaping up to be one of the record-setters, said Mike Halpert, deputy director of the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center.

Indeed, NASA oceanographer Bill Patzert, who compares this El Niño to Godzilla, said satellite measurements show it is currently more powerful than 1997-98.

This El Niño is likely to make northern winters warmer and southeastern U.S. winters a bit cooler, but not much, said Halpert. The middle of the U.S. usually doesn’t get too much of an El Niño effect, he said.

In addition to California, El Niño often brings heavy winter rain to much of the southern and eastern U.S.

El Niño often puts a big damper on the Atlantic hurricane season while bringing more storms to the Pacific, such as Hawaii, said Halpert. So far this year, tropical cyclone activity in the Pacific is far higher than normal.

There has been “incredible warmth” in parts of the Pacific in the last three months, Halpert points out.

This article implies that El Niño’s warmer waters are caused by shifting wind patterns.

C’mon now. Have you ever tried to heat a swimming pool by blowing air across it? Doesn’t work. I think the excess heat is generated by underwater volcanic activity.

Thanks to Bill Sellers for this link

18 thoughts on “NASA scientist sees potential for ‘Godzilla El Niño’”

  1. This El Nino is misapplied. It is not the traditional El Nino. There have been at least two active volcanoes erupting off the pacific coast. One off Baja CA and the other 250 miles off the Oregon coast.

    A recent study (I couldn’t find) was published stating there are systems undersea that draw cool water in and flush warm water out in amazing volumes. These systems sit on top of active magma flows below the ocean bed and push warm water to surface.

    The “Godzilla” El Nino is a combination of volcanic systems. We should be concerned when they are trying to call it an El Nino rather than admit there are known undersea activities causing the warm water.

    IF the Arctic continues to grow eastward, the west is warm with melting permafrost, It is likely we will see massive cold flows in the jet stream coming down over Montana. If this somehow attaches to the moisture coming up from the CA and Oregon coast the eastern US and Europe are in for a very bad time.

    Should the volcanic activity some how drop off it will take some time for the water to cool down. When it does after dumping all the new moisture, the west will find itself in a new paradigm.

  2. “This article implies that El Niño’s warmer waters are caused by shifting wind patterns”

    Yes and No !

    Yes the El Nino phenomenon is very much created by the piling up of warm Pacific Ocean water on the Eastern Pacific shores (Concentrated more so on South America (Peru) but still ultimately making its way up to the Western U.S. shorelines (California in particular))

    This happens because the Tropical Pacific Easterly’s, winds which normaly flow from East-to-West just North of the equator slow down and usually stop allowing for the piling up of warm ocean water on the shores of North and South America !

    So “Yes” to tropical winds (Or better yet the lack of) that are the predominant source/cause of El Nino, just ask 1977-1978, 1982-1983, 1993-1994 and 1997-1998 !!!

    Ocean currents matter !

    As for Volcanos causing El Nino’s, the answer is “no” !

    Can El Nino’s be enhanced by Volcanoes, “Yes” because Volcanic ash tends to increase atmospheric temperatures by trapping heat that would normally disperse up and out of the Atmosphere and from localized heating of the Oceans if they occur beneath the Sea Surface !

    So then you would have a twofold effect, Warm Ocean water combined with above average atmospheric temperatures which = lots and lots of precipitation (Rain), something that California (Southern California in particular) has not seen in “many Moons” (1997-1998)

    Rick – Amateur Meteorologist
    Southern California

  3. “There has been “incredible warmth” in parts of the Pacific in the last three months, Halpert points out.”

    Which of course cannot be from the Sun despite the solar radiation penetrating up to 100 metres in ocean waters.

    It is obviously due to 0.04% of the atmosphere emitting IR which penetrates barely a few centimetres – if that deep !

    Wait till the ocean releases this pent up “heat” to the atmosphere – we’ll see stories about hottest years ever etc.

    But what happens after ?

    After 1997/98 global warming simply stopped as the released heat cause higher atmospheric radiation to space and the Sun entered its current phase of decreased solar activity.

    Perhaps this El-Nino – if it is truly “Godzilla” – will cause a sharp spike in atmospheric radiation to space and ever decreasing solar activity will drive an unmistakable cooling trend from here on ?

    1982 – Big El-Nino.
    16 years later –
    1997/98 – Humungous El-Nino. 16 years of plateaued temperatures – The “Pause”.
    16 years later-
    2015 – Predicted big El-Nino.

    Where to from there ?

    If solar activity is significant the next 16 years are predicted to see lower activity and hence less ocean warming so will we see not a “Pause” but a “Decline” ?

    Interesting times – John Daly, who died in 2004 and was a major thorn in the side of alarmists ALWAYS said we were wasting our time with studies on CO2 – if we wanted to get a handle on the real drivers of climate we should invest in studying El-Nino/La-Nina events and what drives them.

    As all the global warming anyone can point to followed the previous couple of large El-Niño’s whilst showing absolutely no correlation with CO2 I think he was spot on !

    • There have been studies which suggest that El Nino/Nina are driven by solar activity. Certainly nothing to do with C02……

  4. Meant to add as Robert always points out the seas are kinda “simmering” over volcanic vents which keep them warming continually.

  5. All that moisture, all that Polar Vortex Air, all that snow coming this Winter. Wonder how AGW will explain that away?

  6. Any news on the slow down/changes to the thermo hayline conveyer in the Atlantic? It’s been awfully quiet which tells me it won’t be around anymore to modulate the sever winter cold in the U.S. North East and the in the UK. From where I’m positioned that’s the real reason for the damper on the hurricane activity. It’s always what’s been deliberately removed from context that matters most.

  7. Perhaps the currents are slowing heat transport
    from the equator to the poles , are there data
    on Pacific currents ?

  8. Always difficult trying to predict; here are some comments from David Dilley’s site.
    ‘But, notice the circles in the Eastern Pacific that shows the warm subsurface waters shifting to the west with cooling near and along the South American Coast (boxes) from June 22 to August 11. If this trend continues during the next few weeks it will signal that upwelling has begun in the East and more downwelling in the West Central Pacific. This would signal the beginning of the demise of the El Nino.’ Plus lots more info. there.!el-nino-and-enso-predictions-by-gwo/c1mhc

  9. Since NASA and NOAA are in on the warming CO2 scam they have to want an El Nino to stop the temps from flat-lining in time for COP21. But, is their forecasting credible especially after the warmest year debacle last year and the continual data fiddling?

  10. We’ll see, people were saying almost the same thing a year ago about this year’s ‘mega el-nino’. When the same people who were wrong last time ,1] admit they were wrong last time, 2] can explain *why* they were so wrong last time, 3] show their forecasting skill has actually improved – THEN I’ll pay more attention. Do the think we have no memories AT ALL??


  11. We are in a cold phase of the PDO that means weaker and shorter El ninos, but NASA etc must not let the truth get in the way of a false story

  12. Regarding volcanoes — a huge unknown is the effect of erupting undersea volcanoes on the sea floor (submarine volcanoes). A current estimate by volcanologists is that there are approximately 4,000 volcanoes per million square kilometers on the floor of the Pacific Ocean.

Comments are closed.