A New Little Ice Age has begun, says Russian scientist

Not at some future date, mind you, but right now. The new Little Ice Age has already started.

In the new book, Evidence-Based Climate Science: ‘Data Opposing CO2 Emissions as the Primary Source of Global Warming, astrophysicist Dr. Habibullo Abdussamatov warns that a new Little Ice Age has begun.

A highly qualified and highly regarded scientist, Dr Abdussamatov is Head of Space Research Laboratory at the Pulkovo Observatory of the Russian Academy of Sciences, St. Petersburg, Russia.


Since 1990, the Sun has been in the declining phase of the quasi-bicentennial variation in total solar irradiance (TSI). The decrease in the portion of TSI absorbed by the Earth since 1990 has remained uncompensated by the Earth’s long-wave radiation into space at the previous high level because of the thermal inertia of the world’s oceans.

As a result, the Earth has – and will continue to have – a negative average annual energy balance and a long-term adverse thermal condition.

The quasi-centennial epoch of the new Little Ice Age started at the end 2015 after the maximum phase of solar cycle 24. The start of a solar grand minimum is anticipated in solar cycle 27 ± 1 in 2043 ± 11 and the beginning of phase of deep cooling in the new Little Ice Age in 2060 ± 11.

The gradual weakening of the Gulf Stream leads to stronger cooling in the zone of its action in western Europe and the eastern parts of the United States and Canada. Quasi-bicentennial cyclic variations of TSI together with successive very important influences of the causal feedback effects are the main fundamental causes of corresponding alternations in climate variation from warming to the Little Ice Age.




Thanks to Don Brown and Martin Siebert for these links

26 thoughts on “A New Little Ice Age has begun, says Russian scientist”

  1. I would add, the cause started at the end of cycle 23 and the start of this cycle 24 and its single cycle AMP event which the Sun is still progressing around its modified trefoil orbit.
    The damage if you can call it has already been done, it (the Sun) may take two cycles at least to return to normal energy output levels.
    Given that the climate takes at least 10 years before the effects are locked into the climate records (lake shell fish) the climate effects are only now becoming apparent to larger “intelligent” animals, such as our selves.
    The problem with intelligent animals is that they have Politics which is warfare by another means, Politian’s lie to extract tax for Gullible workers, hence the climate wars of the last 40 years and here we are now with 30 years of harsh winters to contend with.

      • aye, saw, that and checked the temperatures at Thule, Nuuk, Daneborg etc in Greenland via the Norwegian Weather Service and they were all still pretty chilly.

      • A flareup of the Gakkel Ridge, the 1000 mile long chain of volcanoes under the Arctic would heat the water, melt the ice and warm the air. Activity under the icecap it is not easy to detect but the symptoms fit and we do know volcanic activity is increasing in other parts of the world.

    • Never fear when a socialist is near. You will hear the moronic socialist now come and say, that we, Man, caused these Angular Momentum Perturbations (AMP), by changing the ecosystems around the world and causing a re-alignment on the Earth’s mass distribution and thus causing a perturbation in its (our Earth’s) orbit. Which would then Affect the other planet’s orbital paths. After all, if Man can have such a devastating affect on the atmosphere, oceans, and land, surely it can affect, too, the Earth’s orbital wobble with all the reckless building and mining we are doing! Remember what I said, Socialists, “never let reality get in the way of a good opportunity to steal more taxes from the People.” When the morons are running the show, everything including Science is reflected, Effects become Affects, et vice versa, proof positive is that even Newton said so, with is Third Law (think about it), no less! (Disclaimer for the morons reading this: what you have just read was written satirically)
      I understand during the last LIA, cannibalism was not out of the question. May I suggest when the next LIA comes and food is scarce, at least there will be a lot of deserving politicians and idiot class socialists you could invite to dinner to seek some sort of respite of your hunger pains ;| Come to think of it, this should solve the methane problem too: I guess you could call this a win-win situation, finally we have found a good cause for socialists and socialism!

    • politicians live on a term of election basis
      so they want to cash in on the one term they know theyve got and at most hope for a 2nd run at the trough
      what happens to everyone else?
      majority couldnt give a sh*t
      they got the money the status and the retirement perks

  2. If this is all true, then are their any presumptions, I say presumptions not computer models, on what the expected level of solar irradiance will be upon the Earth? Obviously if we are going into a LIA, then this irradiance will be lower, but by how much? And thus how much will this impact, in a negative way, on solar panel output? This will be very interesting to watch in the coming years, if we are entering another LIA.
    So I have to ask, if this is all to transpire, will this mean, to counter act the poorer performance (they are already poor, thus the use of ‘poorer’) of solar arrays, due to a weakened Sun, will this mean even more solar panels will have to be built? Are these climate morons, going to use a Little Ice Age to twist scientific reason on its head, by taking what should be absolute insurmountable proof that their idiotic theory has been completely and utterly proven wrong, and turning it into a counter argument for even more uneconomic and useless solar energy? That’s how socialists think; never let reality get in the way of a good opportunity to steal more taxes from the People.

    What I would give to see the Thames freeze over again! If that were to happen, I think it will solve the immigrant problem in the UK. In fact, if it did happen, you will see record emigration!
    Another LIA, if like the last one, means, Greenland will depopulate, and how about Canada, the Northern Europe and across Northern Asia? What will happen to the great wheat fields of Canada and Ukraine? Growing seasons will be much shorter, and with some 8 billion mouths to fill that will be a real problem. Will there be a great starvation? Where will millions of people go because of it? What new wars will come, because countries will not have enough food to feed their populations?

    And while all this is happening the climate morons will be demanding more solar panels. People will be starving for food, and the socialist moron will want to prepare by building more solar panels! Now that is truly moronic!

    Every ice age, Little or Major, has seen a great dying. What forebodings is Man once again going to ignore? In 50 years time, when they are writing history and science books for our next 50 years, will they, ONCE AGAIN write, ‘how did we not see this coming’, ‘how did we not learn from the past’, and my personal favourite that is always trumpeted out, ‘…never again!’, and straight after comes the one and only, ‘Lest we forget!’…Indeed.

    So I will say it, DARE I SAY IT…. HERE WE GO AGAIN!
    I will be dead in 50 years…so let me say it now, on behalf of every competent scientist and every person with half a brain of common sense, alive today, and in the next 50 years…. WE TOLD YOU SO!

    Moral of the story: It is not enough to not listen to morons, because that’s how morons get elected and thus eventually destroy Man; educational standards must never be compromised with, for morons will become Professors and teachers, and that will destroy Man.

    The next LIA will not be the reason that will kill much of Mankind, it will be because we gave the morons too much say. The next great dying of Man, will be all because of the climate morons of today.

    What woe will now befall upon Man, what woe, what woe.

    • Quote : “What I would give to see the Thames freeze over again!”
      You seem to relish the prospect of this nightmare scenario, don’t you. Is this how you get your kicks?

      • Good one Martin – rants spewing hate against one class of people or another should not be tolerated ever.

        Moderation has 2 meanings – here it applies to the review of text for suitability for publication and in the general sense it applies to showing common sense and compassion.

        The hate speeches written by Dorian fail every test of moderation.

        Todays rooster will inevitably be tomorrows feather duster – one day anyone could be in the position of the receiver of such vilification.

        It behooves all of us to argue intellectually – not resort to a Mein Kampf inspired vitriol of hate.

        • Yes, but the human race is still in diapers considering the things we play with like GMO’s DNA’s and Geoengineering, which drastically cuts down sunlight, so Dorian, don’t cut down all alternative energy possibilities when we have only been allowed to build failure on purpose, its called energy FREEdom and you have not been allowed to have it.

    • Sadly I do not think any of us will see the Thames freeze. It is now heavily restrained with very high retaining walls built everywhere which means it will never be like the middle ages again. The same amount of water was able to spread out much further and be far more shallow than now.

    • From my reading of temperature records and historically accounts of the Maunder Minimum (LIA) temperatures were not really all that much less on average than recent times but there were extended periods of cold in European winters and cloud cover was often very high. I’d suggest that the cosmic ray count was high and this seeded cloud formation so there were extended periods of heavy rain and snow in unusual places.

      It’s easy to get carried off on some pet theory but we need to frequently refer back to data and careful assessment of history books.

    • Regarding “what will happen to the wheat fields in Canada & Russia.
      Answer – they will go back to raising rye just like they did a little more than 100 years ago.
      That’s not to say that going back to rye won’t be without its problems. But at least it is a fall back position of some worth.
      Hangtown Frank

    • “never let reality get in the way of a good opportunity to steal more taxes from the [ — “STUPID” — ] People” !

      And “that” is the “reward” for being STUPID !!!


  3. some of us better informed and aware folks;-)
    will be telling our kids/grandkids
    and with luck..some will pay attention
    those that dont?
    well- survival of the fittest applies
    if you are too stupid to pay attention to reality and have your head in a game or alt reality media stupor
    darwin award winners all round
    the tropics will see a huge influx of migration…which is amusing as its the reverse pretty much of the present trends, will be interesting to see how open and welcoming they are when reverse migration begins
    my bet

  4. Conjecture about the reason the north pole ice volume is low does not reflect an article I saw here about chimney’s under the ice being a real possibility for that low ice thickness. This article that I am sharing also did not relate the preponderance of marine vulcanism, however I don’t think the north pole got the memo about the new little ice age: http://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/the-north-pole-is-an-insane-36-degrees-warmer-than-normal-as-winter-descends/ar-AAkqrVS?li=BBmkt5R&ocid=spartanntp

  5. “If that were to happen, I think it will solve the immigrant problem in the UK. In fact, if it did happen, you will see record emigration!’

    Great point. There have been reports of immigrants bitterly complaining that the weather was too cold – but, instead of leaving, they demand that the host countries do something about it! They must believe the climate change politicians who claim that they can adjust the climate by passing laws and signing accords….

  6. Yet in the meantime,most of Canada and the Usa are above avg,or is this little ice age only gonna happen in Europe?

    • According to some sources there’s an unusually high concentration of methane greenhouse gas, due to melting tundra’s in Siberia, that are releasing huge amounts of it.
      So that could at least partially explain the heat buildup at the Northpole, it can’t escape easily into space.
      Last year I saw a Nasa image of how much methane was gathering at the Northpole. Too much of it in the atmosphere could trigger a burning atmosphere I guess and we would be toast.

      • Nasa is full of AGW liars that teach our children that clouds come from contrails, and what the hell is a space agency doing cooking the facts on ground temps from space? Empty the capsule?

  7. Good program last night, Robert! It no doubt woke up some more folks. I heard you 1997 also, and I believed it. I’ve been warning people ever since, which brought some laughs but little interest overall. They are beginning to listen now. In the past I wrote two Montana Senators, but for some strange reason, got no reply. The prophets of old were ignored, so calamity arrived unimpeded, as it will this time. I went to college at the age of 45 and graduated with honors, and a professor of sociology told me that he believed the human race would eventually solve its own problems. I almost swallowed my teeth! Not a chance of a snowball in a bonfire, let alone in hell! I’m 78 now, and glad of it. If the Bible isn’t true (which I believe isn’t so) the farcical human race will end up ruled by a fist of steel, or else as tribes of savages living hand to mouth in garbage dumps, the legacy of their ancestors. Fiddlin

    • Drought over tens of years during minimums, and significantly longer for major glaciation advances.
      The climate caused by pacific meridional air stream pushing wet airstreams northwards into the Arctic regions rather that westerly reduce the amount of water for the South West US.
      This is a historical fact documented in many papers on the climate effects of Grand Solar Minimums and during major Glaciation periods.

  8. Guys, I don’t mean to be repetitive but here comes an update from South America: springtime has been very cold with short periods (no more than a week) of ‘previously normal’ warmer days followed by cyclones, storms, hail, frosts and temperatures close to zero (Celsius) in mid-latitudes. It has even snowed in Argentina just 30 days before the solstice.

    In the south of Brazil temperature has fallen close to zero at 800m and 7C at sea level. In the State of Sao Paulo temperature anomaly reached -4C for many days in-a-row. Even the State of Acre in the Amazonia (tropical region) has been hit by low temperatures.

    The forecasts are now pointing to more incoming freeze reaching the region between the end of November and the beginning of December. If it doesn’t warm up in the last 3 weeks of springtime this means the region is coming to a situation of almost no-real springtime happening but only a kind of extension of the winter season. And we might take into consideration the meteorological winter has started 60 days ahead of time (by the end of April, not June). So the southern hemisphere is going through almost 7 consecutive months of wintertime for now.

    Meteorologists are now revising the temperatures recorded in the last years and have found that, except for the Super El Niño (from the end of 2014 to the beginning of 2016), the years of 2008, 2010, 2013 and now 2016 have consistently been showing record-low-declining temperatures for the region.

    Will 2017 be a ‘no-summertime year’ as people reported during the Maunder’s?

    Here follows the analysis of a meteorological site from Brazil (Climatempo):




    Also from the site of Terra:


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