New Little Ice Age has begun, says Russian scientist

Not at some future date, mind you, but right now. The new Little Ice Age has already started.

In the new book, “Evidence-Based Climate Science: ‘Data Opposing CO2 Emissions as the Primary Source of Global Warming,” astrophysicist Dr. Habibullo Abdussamatov warns that a new Little Ice Age has begun.

A highly qualified and highly regarded scientist, Dr Abdussamatov is Head of Space Research Laboratory at the Pulkovo Observatory of the Russian Academy of Sciences, St. Petersburg, Russia.


Since 1990, the Sun has been in the declining phase of the quasi-bicentennial variation in total solar irradiance (TSI). The decrease in the portion of TSI absorbed by the Earth since 1990 has remained uncompensated by the Earth’s long-wave radiation into space at the previous high level because of the thermal inertia of the world’s oceans.

As a result, the Earth has, and will continue to have, a negative average annual energy balance and a long-term adverse thermal condition. The quasi-centennial epoch of the new Little Ice Age has started at the end 2015 after the maximum phase of solar cycle 24. The start of a solar grand minimum is anticipated in solar cycle 27 ± 1 in 2043 ± 11 and the beginning of phase of deep cooling in the new Little Ice Age in 2060 ± 11.

The gradual weakening of the Gulf Stream leads to stronger cooling in the zone of its action in western Europe and the eastern parts of the United States and Canada. Quasi-bicentennial cyclic variations of TSI together with successive very important influences of the causal feedback effects are the main fundamental causes of corresponding alternations in climate variation from warming to the Little Ice Age.

Thanks to Don Brown for these links

22 thoughts on “New Little Ice Age has begun, says Russian scientist

  1. 03/November/2016 : Last night it was minus -3*C in London UK. According to Professor of Hydro Dynamics, Gianluigi Zangari at the Frescati Institute in Italy, the Gulf Stream is supposed to have “died” in July 2010. Thus according to the Swedish Meteorological Service the temperature of the North Atlantic is now far colder than ever before recorded. Two years ago they stated 10*C colder than normal. Now it is in the region of being 25*C colder then normal. Normal meaning as it used to be before the Sun began getting colder and thus before the Gulf Stream died in July 2010.

    • The Gulf Stream is still operating; however the western Atlantic has cooled regionally by a few degrees, but not 25 degrees as think you are suggesting.
      In this chart you can see the remnants of the Gulf Stream flow captured by the English Channel and flowing up toward Demark.
      The water temperature around the UK during early winter is around 12C, during February during a normal westerly winter around 6C. During Easterly winters such as 63 inshore on the east coast it froze, in my memeory.

  2. Wonder if Trump will help prepare by promoting massive farming here in the U.S. in lieu of shorted growing seasons?
    Now where did I place that re-germinating seed again?

    • I remember watching a video about a decade ago involving some college students that caught up with Eric Dollard whom was doing independent research in the desert, he did not wish for any more government interference in his life.
      They ask him his opinion on the sun output? To make a long story short he told them point blank, “the sun is dying”.
      What exactly did he mean. “the sun is dying”?
      “DYING”, Eric retorted, “what is so difficult about the word dying”!
      What about our children and their grand-children the college students asked?
      “It appears the sun will be quiet for a long time”, replied Eric.

        • They told Albert Einstein he was a flake as well when he told them that we would discover that the sun is void of mass(no structures, i.e. rocks, lava, etc.). Now that we have the instruments available to us that NASA loaned to Eric for his research the Electric Universe group has almost came to the conclusion that Albert and Eric are correct about the sun being void of mass. And they have proven that it is the layering of plasma gas that generates the flares for our warmth also proven as Eric said the sun works as a capacitor. The equipment that was not available at the time of Eric’s research for NASA that we have today is the satellites to prove that the plasma flows bind the galaxies and the universes together and that plasma is the dark matter (which does not exist) that places like CERN is suppose to be looking for(hum, I have always doubted that was a viable project and they knew it to be bogus as well). The hollow earthers as well will one day be proven correct(again just as Albert said we would discover).
          Anyway, have a good day AndrewS.

          Good day

  3. 🙂 we hit 29 ish today…for a few hrs
    then back came the cold and rains due again..
    next few years will be the tell for whats coming cold wise i reckon

  4. According to the Golden book Encyclopedia, published in the 1950’s, the onset an ice age is proceeded by a warming period. This raises the sea level enough to allow the gulf stream to flow over the underwater ridge between Greenland and Nova Scotia to melt the Arctic. More open water causes more precipitation on the Northern land masses. Thus the rebuilding of the glaciers.

    • That’s interesting, Vance, because ice ages on Mars start when the polar ice caps begin to retreat, and then water vapour migrates towards the equator, forming ground ice and glaciers at mid latitudes. When the warm polar period ends, the polar ice starts to build up again, and ice is lost from the mid latitudes. So in a way, it’s the same process in reverse, I think?

  5. IF Dr Abdussamatov is correct then the Earth’s oceans must have a temperature response “lag” time of a few decades . Water has a higher heat capacity than most other substances.

    The “grand solar maximum” of the late 20th century caused heating of the oceans which stored thermal energy until the large El-Niño event of ~1998. Since then the energy input may have been declining whilst the release of thermal energy from the oceans has continued with at least 2 El-Niño events of significant size – 2010 and 2015/16.

    IF Dr Abdussamatov is correct then climate alarmists might regret drawing so much attention to the El-Niño events.

    IF Dr Abdussamatov is correct and the solar input is less than the Earth’s IR output then the oceans will continue to cool and the atmosphere will eventually radiate the thermal energy away slowly – because that is what gases do, they radiate with significantly lower power.

    The El-Niño event of 2016 may mark the beginning of the decline of atmospheric temperatures rather than just the “pause”.

    Interesting times.

    • Rosco, I agree with you far more than others and their views within Weather Blogs, your arguments are more “realistic” as in what’s really happening in/with the Global Climate/Meteorological cycles !

      “2010 and 2015/16” El Nino’s ?

      I live in Southern California and have been monitoring El Nino’s and La Nina’s (El Nino’s first, La Nina’s mid to late 1980’s because La Nina’s weren’t truly recognized until then) since El Nino 1977-1978 as well as observing and monitoring “all” Weather and Pacific Ocean events since !!

      Up until 2010 all El Nino’s where basically Southern California measured/driven because for several decades what happened in/to Southern California was the measuring stick, but that all ended because El Nino 2009-2010 which had very little effect on Southern California except for the 20+ inches of rain which is about 5 more inches then the normal 15 inches of precipitation average.

      El Nino 2010 carried little High Wind Cyclones and very little large Ocean Swells, that El Nino was weak and the Southern California Sea Temperatures (Santa Barbara to San Diego) were only slightly above normal (All Winter Sea Temperatures ⬆⬇), maybe 1 or 2 degrees Fahrenheit and/but nothing compared to El Nino’s 1977/78, 1982/83 (Nothing compares to this El Nino!), 1993/94 and 1997/98 (Great El Nino)

      As for this just passing El Nino (2015/16), “nothing” at “all” happened here in Southern California, complete Drought year, normal Sea Temperatures (56° to 58° degrees Fahrenheit) and except for a couple of Large Swells, that was it, it’s as if El Nino didn’t happen, Big Blob or no Big Blob !!!

      What I do really agree with you is…

      “The El-Niño event of 2016 may mark the beginning of the decline of atmospheric temperatures rather than just the “pause”

      And as it was happening, while watching a (Supposed) Large Pool of Warm Sea water moving up from the Eastern Pacific Tropics into the usually (Very “Usually”) cold to very cold Gulf of Alaska where I then pondered that that was the last batch of Warm Sea water left in the Eastern Pacific heading up to a place where it will be “cooled” away and so after what’s left, tremendous cooling can now set in, and that’s a “worse” case scenario for the entire Planet (Everyone keeps on mentioning the cooling Atlantic but few are even conceiving a potentially cooling Pacific) !

      Along shorelines, land temperatures tend to average Sea temperatures meaning cooler Sea Water produces cooler Storms which then begins cooling down the Atmosphere !

      Hope I’m wrong because if not, within 3 to 5 years, living on Planet Earth will become a very difficult thing to do…

      Rick – SoCal

    • Hi Rosco,
      You are correct the oceans have a 10 years solar heat lag period.
      This was documented in the findings about the LALIA solar minimum during AD600 period, the change over from Warm to Cold and very, very wet, took ten years for the change to be locked into Western Europe lake shell fish fossil records.
      The suggestion in the New Scientist article was that the reduced output from the Sun over the 125 years period was made far worse by the three major T6/T7 volcanic eruptions accompanying the Solar Minimum, and I add the Sun’s abrupt change in orbit around the Solar System BarryCentre during an AMP affected cycle contributed to the change in the volcanic status of the world during that period.

  6. OK that is a clear cut statement I can work with. We can cope with little ice ages as long as we can get people to learn from history. Famine, plague and war plus real crappy weather for up to 5 centuries. Lovely!

  7. I predict that sometime in the near future we will wake up and find that all of the “warmists” will have become “coolists” and will be calling for massive government spending to combat global cooling.

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