New Little Ice Age by 2030 – Solar retrograde cycle – Updated 7 Sep 06 – I first published this forecast by Dr. Landscheidt in 2003. However, with the recent reported cooling of the Atlantic Ocean, and with the first reversed sunspot of what may be the beginning of the next solar cycle, and with Russian scientists predicting a new Little Ice Age, I thought it would be an appropriate to give more credit to Dr. Landscheidt. He had been predicting this scenario for years. Here’s what Dr. Landscheidt had to say:
Analysis of the sun’s activity in the last two millennia indicates that, contrary to the IPCC’s speculation about man-made global warming, that we could be headed into a Maunder minimum type of climate (a Little Ice Age).
The probability is high that the minima around 2030 and 2201 will go along with periods of cold climate comparable to the nadir of the Little Ice Age, and La Niñas will be more frequent and stronger than El Niños through 2018 (Landscheidt, 2000).
We need not wait until 2030 to see whether the forecast is correct, however. A declining trend in solar activity and global temperature should become manifest long before then. The current 11-year sunspot cycle 23 with its considerably weaker activity seems to be a first indication of the new trend, especially as it was predicted
on the basis of solar motion cycles two decades ago. As to temperature, only El Niño periods should interrupt the downward trend, but even El Niños should become less frequent and strong.
The total magnetic flux leaving the Sun has risen by a factor of 2.3 since 1901 while global temperature on earth increased by about 0.6°C. Energetic flares increased the Sun’s ultraviolet radiation by at least 16 percent. There is “a clear connection between solar eruptions and a strong rise in temperature.”
Lake bottom cores from the Yukatan Peninsula covering more than 2,000 years show a similar correlation between recurrent droughts and the Sun’s eruptional activity. These results and many earlier ones (Landscheidt, 1981-2001) document the importance of the Sun’s eruptional activity on climate.
Energetic solar eruptions do not accumulate around the sunspot maximum. In most cycles they shun the maximum phase and can even occur close to a sunspot minimum.
I (Landscheidt) have shown for decades that the sun’s varying activity is linked to cycles in its irregular oscillation about the centre of mass of the solar system (the solar retrograde cycle). As these cycles are connected with climate phenomena and can be computed for centuries, they offer a means to forecast phases of cool and warm climate.
Researchers need to take the sun seriously as a factor in climate change, including warming, droughts, and cold snaps.
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I’m sorry to report that Dr. Theodor Landscheidt passed away on May 20, 2004. Founder of the Schroeter Institute for Research in Cycles of Solar Activity in Waldmuenchen, Germany, Dr. Landscheidt was a giant in the field of climatology.
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Here’s what I published in 2003
Dr. Landscheidt, author of “Sun – Earth – Man: A Mesh of Cosmic Oscillations,” and “Cosmic Cybernetics: The Foundations of a Modern Astrology,” based his forecast on the Gleissberg cycle of solar activity.
“Contrary to the IPCC’s speculation about man-made global warming as high as 5.8° C within the next hundred years,” said Landscheidt, “a long period of cool climate with its coldest phase around 2030 is to be expected.””
It can be seen,” added Landscheidt, “that the Gleissberg minimum around 2030 and another one around 2200 will be of the Maunder minimum type accompanied by severe cooling on Earth.” (Posted 19 Sep 2003)
This confirms what I’ve been saying all along; that our climate is controlled by magnetic activity on the sun.
It also makes my assertion that “we’ll be admitting that we’re headed into an ice age by the year 2012” seem a lot more plausible.
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Landscheidt’s forecasts include the end of the great Sahelian drought; the last five extremes in global temperature anomalies; the last three El Niños; and the course of the last La Niña. He predicted extreme River Po discharges beginning in October 2000, some seven months before they began.
This forecast skill, says Landscheidt, solely based on solar cycles, is irreconcilable with the IPCC’s allegation that it is unlikely that natural forcing can explain the warming in the latter half of the 20th century.
Here are more references and links:
Landscheidt, T. (1976): Beziehungen zwischen der Sonnenaktivität und dem Massenzentrum des Sonnensystems. Nachrichten der Olbersgesellschaft 100, 2-19.
Landscheidt, T. (1983): Solar oscillations, sunspot cycles, and climatic change. In: McCormac, B. M., ed.: Weather and climate responses to solar variations. Boulder, Associated University Press, 293-308.
Landscheidt, T. (1986 a): Long-range forecast of energetic x-ray bursts based on cycles of flares. In: Simon, P. A., Heckman, G. und Shea, M. A., eds.: Solar-terrestrial predictions. Proceedings of a workshop at Meudon, 18.-22. June 1984. Boulder, National Oceanic andAtmospheric Administration, 81-89.
Landscheidt, T. (1986 b): Long-range forecast of sunspot cycles. In: Simon, P. A., Heckman, G. und Shea, M. A., eds.: Solar-terrestrial predictions. Proceedings of a workshop at Meudon, 18.-22. June 1984. Boulder, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 48-57.
Landscheidt, T. (1987): Long-range forecasts of solar cycles and climate change. In: Rampino, M. R., Sanders, J. E., Newman, W. S. und Königsson, L. K., eds.: Climate, History, Periodicity, and Predictability. New York, van Nostrand Reinhold, 421-445.
Landscheidt, T. (1988): Solar rotation, impulses of the torque in the Sun’s motion, and climatic variation. Climatic Change 12, 265-295.
Landscheidt, T.(1990): Relationship between rainfall in the northern hemisphere and impulses of the torque in the Sun’s motion. In: K. H. Schatten and A. Arking, eds.: Climate impact of solar variability. Greenbelt, NASA, 259-266.
Landscheidt, T.(1995): Global warming or Little Ice Age? In: Finkl, C. W., ed.: Holocene cycles. A Jubilee volume in celebration of the 80th birthday of Rhodes W. Fairbridge. Fort Lauderdale, The Coastal Education and Research Foundation
Landscheidt, T. (1998 a): Forecast of global temperature, El Niño, and cloud coverage by astronomical means. In: Bate, R., ed.: Global Warming. The continuing debate. Cambridge, The European Science and Environment Forum (ESEF), 172-183.
Landscheidt, T. (1998 b): Solar activity : A dominant factor in climate dynamics.
Landscheidt, T. (1999 a): Solar activity controls El Niño and La Niña.
Landscheidt, T. (1999 b): Extrema in sunspot cycle linked to Sun’s motion. Solar Physics 189:413-424.
Landscheidt, T. (2000 a): Solar forcing of El Niño and La Niña. European Space Agency (ESA) Special Publication 463, 135-140.
Landscheidt, T. (2000 b): River Po discharges and cycles of solar activity. Hydrol. Sci. J. 45:491-493.
Landscheidt, T. (2000 c): Sun’s role in the satellite-balloon-surface issue.
Landscheidt, T. (2000 d): New confirmation of strong solar forcing of climate.
Landscheidt, T. (2000e): Solar wind near Earth: Indicator of variations in global temperature. ESA-SP 463,497-500.
Landscheidt, T. (2001 a): Solar eruptions linked to North Atlantic Oscillation.
Landscheidt, T. (2001 b): Trends in Pacific Decadal Oscillation subjected to solar forcing.
Landscheidt, T. (2002): El Niño Forecast Revisited.