NOAA – La Nina likely

NOAA – La Nina likely

Coming winter likely to be cooler and wetter than usual in parts of northern U.S. – Drier and warmer in the South.


19 Oct 2017 – Forecasters at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center released the U.S. Winter Outlook today, with La Nina potentially emerging for the second year in a row as the biggest wildcard in how this year’s winter will shape up. La Nina has a 55- to 65-percent chance of developing before winter sets in.

“If La Nina conditions develop, we predict it will be weak and potentially short-lived, but it could still shape the character of the upcoming winter,” said Mike Halpert, deputy director of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “Typical La Nina patterns during winter include above average precipitation and colder than average temperatures along the Northern Tier of the U.S. and below normal precipitation and drier conditions across the South.”

The 2017 U.S. Winter Outlook (December through February):


  • Wetter-than-average conditions are favored across most of the northern United States, extending from the northern Rockies, to the eastern Great Lakes, the Ohio Valley, in Hawaii and in western and northern Alaska.

  • Drier-than-normal conditions are most likely across the entire southern U.S.


  • Warmer-than-normal conditions are most likely across the southern two-thirds of the continental U.S., along the East Coast, across Hawaii and in western and northern Alaska.

  • Below-average temperatures are favored along the Northern Tier of the country from Minnesota to the Pacific Northwest and in southeastern Alaska.

  • The rest of the country falls into the equal chance category, which means they have an equal chance for above-, near-, or below-normal temperatures and/or precipitation because there is not a strong enough climate signal in these areas to shift the odds.


  • Despite the outlook favoring above-average precipitation this winter, drought is likely to persist in parts of the northern Plains, although improvement is anticipated farther West.

  • Elsewhere, drought could develop across scattered areas of the South, mainly in regions that missed the rainfall associated with the active 2017 hurricane season.

19 thoughts on “NOAA – La Nina likely

  1. The NOAA meteorologists in the trenches who produce the short to medium range forecasts and the forecast discussions are well meaning. Invaluable actually. They work hard to make sure that we are aware of pertinent weather forecasts, and as a professional in the outdoor industry they are a key source of intel. So we shouldn’t make the mistake of believing “nothing coming from the NOAA.” That’s quite ignorant. Yes there are factions in the NOAA who are blatant politicized climate alarmists lying through their teeth. But if we state absolutes then we are no better than them.

  2. This is a good thing . With their prediction history. just the opposite will occur. I look forward to a cold snowy winter in north Texas. Cuts more firewood.

  3. Turn that into climate change issue not comin iceage lol , but at least mentions thing of revealance but they don’t touch , how on how people many now live in cities and how few live in the country ,

    Here in australia just to show you differences , if you live 50 kms from coast you are only 2.5 percent of the australian population , so that is less than a million , in this large we call home .
    Now take that , and release just how large australia is ,

    Then look that fact most australians live in southern states , Or in and around larger cities example , brisbane population 2,400,000 people in area no one grows food , we get the food from farms that are now very wet to say the least in the this area .

    But in shops in brisbane we have grapes and oranges andnother fruits from usa and otyer place

  4. Can we trust NOAA ?

    With the Administration change we should be able to get more trustworthy data but that doesn’t seem to be the case.

  5. The likelihood of wide-spread ( >55% of continental USA) snow by Christmas is on the books. Or at least that’s my paltry ($10) wager against my sister for this year.

  6. I never buy into ANY of these long range forecasts, especially NOAA. They are all horrible as far as being correct in any given year. Last year they predicted a cold winter here in the East, according to many private meteorologists.
    Well that was totally wrong. The trough was out in CA – not in the East. This winter’s outlook is likely to be wrong yet again.
    It’s very often the “exact opposite” of what they believe will happen in October. In 2010/11 we had a strong La-Nina and they were all certain that the Pacific NW would be cold and snowy and the SE warm. The exact opposite was the case in Dec/Jan.
    Even the Almanacs have no clue about the winter predictions.

  7. lately noaa has had to admit reality..times ARE changing..while trumps in , so hope he stays for full term and a repeat

  8. How to read the temperatures on this noaa map:

    Warmer=colder then normal and above normal snowfall

    Cooler= extremely bitterly cold with lots and lots of snow

    I see a repeat of 2013-14 wibter. NOAA couldn’t be any more stupider since they only include one small factor (la Niña) as the main predictor of global temps.

  9. La Nina has been there for a while already, it looks strong though. However, last year was La Nina too, from my recollection, and, after the fact they admitted that some of the years with the most precipitation for California are La Nina years, 150 percent to 200 percent of average in the mountains, I think. So, I’m not saying this year will be a repeat of that necessarily, I’m just saying that the standard forecast for La Nina, which is what this is, isn’t always completely accurate, though Washington State also had a lot of precipitation, I think, above average.

    I’ve lived here for quite a while, and what looks like the same setup to me, will either bring us lots of snow or none, so I haven’t gotten it figured out either, mountains are tricky.

    Also, in a few short weeks (or less!) Three quarters of the north pacific is now cooler than average, after being mostly warmer than average??? Those few storms and lack of sunspots possibly cooled things down quick!

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