Northern European summer temperatures have been trending downward for 2,000 Years

This provides “ever more real-world evidence for the fact that there is nothing unusual, unnatural or unprecedented about the Earth’s current level of warmth,” says meteorologist Anthony Watts.


After studying tree-ring chronologies of maximum latewood density stretching from 17 BC to the present, an international team of researchers found “a long-term cooling trend of -0.30°C per 1,000 years over the Common Era in northern Europe” (see figure below).

The team, from the Czech Republic, Finland, Germany, Greece, Sweden and Switzerland, also note that “conditions during Medieval and Roman times were probably warmer than in the late 20th century,” when the previously-rising post-Little Ice Age mean global air temperature hit a ceiling of sorts above which it has yet to penetrate.

See entire article:

Thanks to Wanda for this link


19 thoughts on “Northern European summer temperatures have been trending downward for 2,000 Years”

  1. The problem with tend graphs like these is, are they based on reality and experience?
    The trend on this graph gives the impression that we should be neck deep in snow all year long in Europe since 800 AD. Plainly this is not the case and we are no better than the Warmists for crock propaganda.
    It however, provides documented proofs that the head line temperature of each warm period of around 140 years is trending down wards. I would expect that after another 3 or 4 warm periods, or around 600 years that the necessary trigger point will be reached for the Ice advance to kick off fully. During this period sea levels will drop during each Cooling period (40 years) and then recover some what during each warm period but never fully recovering, leading to a further 4 to 8 meter drop in sea levels. Sea levels during the Roman warm period have been suggested to be nearly 8 meters higher than they are now. The ten or so Cooling periods since that time have removed that water and deposited on both major ICE caps, Greenland and Antarctica. Once the Ice advance starts fully sea levels would then drop over 150 meters over the course of the next Ice age of 150,000 years.

    • This is my complaint generally with trend lines, Jimbob. Statistically, they are only any good for establishing a trend in a population of data, if you wish to do so. They say nothing about what that trend is to be used for.

      While it’s important to understand that the world is generally cooler now than 2000 years ago, this completely ignores the fine detail, like the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age.

      What trend lines like this ARE good for, is countering the propaganda of the Warmists with the reality that the world has cooled.

    • This NASA paper is also interesting.
      Although, he covers his NASA political bases with a paragraph at the end blaming AGW Green House gases, it’s a pity he didn’t also say that with out water vapor the earth would be a frozen brick, being the biggest Green House gas of the lot, and CO2 is a minuscule’s proportion of the atmosphere.

    • No, I think you will find the Solar Modern Maximum is the cause of the recent warming and the small increase in CO2 levels. Man’s CO2 is simply added to the excess given off by the oceans as it warms during the modern maximum which has just ended. The Co2 cycle has been going on since the World obtained an atmosphere and bacteria converted some of the the gaseous mixtures into oxygen, with plants then taking over fixing carbon into their structures and releasing oxygen. Over Billions of years, major sources of carbon have been locked into sediments as coals and reabsorbed into the mantle via plate tectonics, which over time is readmitted into the surface environment by volcanic processes. Volcano’s both under water and surface push out more many more time of CO2 than man is able to produce in the few short years since 1850 and the start of the energy age.

  2. Also note there was no flooding of the coastal areas during that 100+ year warm time and they would have us believe the coast will be inadated 150 miles inland. Most of know better and its not getting any warmer so buy warmer cloths.

    • Despite all the Propaganda sea levels are RETREATING and I am not talking rebound as the weight of the ice sheets has been removed.
      Since the Holocene Optimum we are talking a FALL of at least a meter! that is why Roman seaports are found INLAND.

      A nice list to shove down the throats of the Warmunists.

      Mid to late Holocene sea-level reconstruction of Southeast Vietnam using beachrock and beach-ridge deposits

      ….backshore deposits along the tectonically stable south-eastern Vietnamese coast document Holocene sea level changes…..reconstructed for the last 8000 years….The rates of sea-level rise decreased sharply after the rapid early Holocene rise and stabilized at a rate of 4.5 mm/year between 8.0 and 6.9 ka. Southeast Vietnam beachrocks reveal that the mid-Holocene sea-level highstand slightly above + 1.4 m was reached between 6.7 and 5.0 ka, with a peak value close to + 1.5 m around 6.0 ka….

      Sea-level highstand recorded in Holocene shoreline deposits on Oahu, Hawaii

      Unconsolidated carbonate sands and cobbles on Kapapa Island, windward Oahu, are 1.4-2.8 (+ or – 0.25) m above present mean sea level (msl)…we interpret the deposit to be a fossil beach or shoreline representing a highstand of relative sea level during middle to late Holocene time. Calibrated radiocarbon dates of coral and mollusc samples, and a consideration of the effect of wave energy setup, indicate that paleo-msl was at least 1.6 (+ or – 0.45) m above present msl prior to 3889-3665 cal. yr B.P, possibly as early as 5532-5294 cal. yr B.P., and lasted until at least 2239-1940 cal. yr B.P

      Holocene sea-level change and ice-sheet history in the Vestfold Hills, East Antarctica

      A new Holocene sea-level record from the Vestfold Hills, Antarctica, has been obtained by dating the lacustrine–marine and marine–lacustrine transitions that occur in sediment cores from lakes which were formerly connected to the sea. From an elevation of ∼7.5 m 8000 yr ago, relative sea-level rose to a maximum ∼9 m above present sea-level 6200 yr ago. Since then, sea-level has fallen monotonically until the present….

      The above is a RELATIVE sealevel curve. the area is not tectonically stable because the area has isostatic uplift in response to deglaciation from the Wisconsin Ice Age.

      A new Holocene relative sea level curve for the South Shetland Islands, Antarctica

      The curve shows a mid-Holocene RSL highstand on Fildes Peninsula at 15.5 m above mean sea level between 8000 and 7000 cal a BP. Subsequently RSL gradually fell as a consequence of isostatic uplift in response to regional deglaciation….

      Verification by another method:
      Sea Level Changes Past Records and Future Expectations

      For the last 40-50 years strong observational facts indicate virtually stable sea level conditions. The Earth’s rate of rotation records an [average] acceleration from 1972 to 2012, contradicting all claims of a rapid global sea level rise, and instead suggests stable, to slightly falling, sea levels.

  3. I’ve said this before and I’ll say it again: dendrochronology is nothing more than a pseudoscience, and akin to astrology.

    When other articles that appear here and on pages like Anthony Watts’ that purport trees don’t always produce defined tree rings despite growing seasons, then how the hell can tree ring width be used for any correlation to ANYTHING? Especially fractions of a degree Celcius?

    I may as well throw some tea leaves into a bowl and chant, and come up with something as reliable because that’s what dendrochronology is.

  4. Well, we’ve been burned by tree ring data before. The problems we’ve had with the use of tree ring information in other studies, not sure how that is resolved here.

  5. The only problem I have with this report is the statement that they took parts of two existing reconstructions to create a new reconstruction, with no explanation given as to why they only chose “parts” to combine. This is what Mann did for his hockeystick as well, so I would have preferred a statement explaining WHY they selected only parts of the two data records.

  6. The Roman Warm Period and Medieval Warm period are clearly visible. This trend is also detectable in Greenland and Antarctic Ice Core data.
    Those and Steve McIntyre have nailed the coffin shut on Mann’s Hockey Stick.

    • On the subject of ice sheets:
      SAN FRANCISCO — Volcanoes punched through a remote part of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet twice in the last 50,000 years, according to research presented Monday (Dec. 15) here at the annual meeting of the American Geophysical Union.
      Iverson suspects the volcanic source is buried close to the divide, where the ice sheet is more than 10,000 feet (3,050 meters) thick. There are three volcanoes entombed in ice within about 125 miles (200 km), and even more could be present.

      Earthquakes suggest magma still churns beneath a previously unknown subglacial volcano in West Antarctica’s Executive Committee Range, which was uncloaked when shaking started in 2010. Gravity and magnetic anomalies hint at nine subglacial volcanoes near the West Antarctic divide, John Behrendt, a geologist at the University of Colorado, Boulder reported today (Dec. 17) at the meeting. Behrendt was not involved in the ice core study.

  7. Norway: excessive snow must be removed from ski slopes. Published December 20, 2014.
    “I had never believed we would experience this. During the last two days we’ve got more snow than we had in the last two years together, says a victorious Vegar Sårheim. Late Saturday night he worked together with the trail crew in Breimsbygda Ski Centre Utvikfjellet feverishly to remove the snow around the ski lifts. We face the greatest challenges around the lifts, because for security reasons there must be two feet clearance. So we need shoveling away large amounts of snow, says Sårheim. – We have received about 1.5 meters of snow in a short period of time. And the forecast until Christmas is that there will come much more. So once we have cleared away this snow, we will face a fantastic Christmas.
    Sårheim sees the humor in that slopes actually need to remove snow. – Yes, this I had never imagined that I would experience that.

  8. The most amazing thing is the two fifty year periods, 300-350 and 1250-1300 where it appears there were no warm summers, what happened here ?
    Was it a sun phase, or something else like a volcano that caused so must dust, it blocked the sun.
    My thoughts are to start an ice-age, you need both a snowy winter and a poor summer so the melting season is short. I do wonder if the second one is related to 15th and 16th Century tales of some small glaciers at high level in Scotland, must have built up over years of cooler summers.

    • Oort minimum 1075-1100
      Wolf minimum 1275-1350
      Sporer minimum 1400-1585
      This second paper is very interesting as it documents the weather experienced during Dalton.…/Sum2013PaperBrentWalker.pdf
      During both the Maunder and Dalton periods European Alpine Glaciers expanded significantly, in certain locations crushing high villages, built frankly in the wrong places close to a flowing water source coming from a glacier, originally much higher up the valley.
      The problem we have is the Nay Sayers, the Warmist, cannot accept that the current mathematical construction of average temperatures is artificial and incorrect. If you place all your temperature sensors between 50N and 50S you will construct the average for the temperate zone of the world. This ignores the two inconvenient Polar Regions, where all the ice is. The real problem is the warm bubble over the temperate regions is shrinking and the polar region is expanding as the excess heat is radiated to space and the Grand Minimum proceeds over the next 30 years.

  9. The warm period is LONG GONE. It has been gone since 1940, when global cooling began. That ceiling they talk about was reached in the 1930’s – and that was the end of it…..
    We are already in a little ice age in the last 3 years now, with 2014 being one of the coldest years on record.

  10. Video: WH Science advisor says man made global warming saving us from another ice age

    What is Eric Holdren known to advocate? The population of Earth with less than one billion people…

    The narrative is beginning to change to accommodate the facts so that the liberal cronies can profit regardless. Holdren is basically creating the excuse that natural variation in climate swamped man made global warming as the out for it not happening as predicted.

    That they are referencing the change in tilt of the Earth is significant since every ice age without exception begins when the tilt drops below 23.5 degrees, we are now at 23.42 degrees. What are the conditions for a cooling world? Crop failures, starvation, high energy demands for heating.

    Obama has the previous Pentagon Global Cooling report and in my opinion has been acting on it. He stirred up the strife in the M.E. to cull the world’s population, especially those with high birth rates…Iraq, Syria, etc. Obama has been kneeling the football for a reason. It isn’t because he views America as the world’s bully, meddling in the affairs of other countries he has been deliberately disengaging the US from world affairs so when the bitter cold begins the US is not expected to physically referee between countries. Look at Ukraine.

    Obama deliberately encouraged the civil war in Syria (an undisputed fact) which then spilled over into Iraq (due to his refusal to support the Iraq government when they asked for help in 2013). Over 250,000 people have been killed there, that puts a dent in future population growth figures, i.e. less mouths to feed, cloth and keep warm. Obama believes in Climate Change, JUST NOT THE ONE LIBERALS THINK HE ADVOCATES. Why do you think Obama has let in over 1,400 people with being currently monitored with potential Ebola into the US?

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