Now the coldest millennium in 8,000 years

Please, will someone show this graph to President Trump?


Now the coldest millennium in 8,000 years

The reversion to a true ice age is almost overdue
By Ed Hoskins

The last millennium, 1000AD – 2000AD, has been the coldest millennium of the entire current Holocene interglacial.

Graph by Ed Hoskins

Each of the notable high points in the Holocene temperature record, (Holocene Climate Optimum – Minoan – Roman – Medieval – Modern), have been progressively colder than the previous high point.

For its first 7-8000 years the early Holocene, including its high point known as the “climate optimum”, temperatures have been virtually flat, with an average drop of only ~0.007 °C per millennium.

But the more recent Holocene since a “tipping point” at around 1000BC, 3000 years ago has seen temperature fall at about 20 times that earlier rate at about 0.14 °C per millennium .

The Holocene interglacial is already 10 – 11,000 years old and judging from the length of previous interglacial periods, the Holocene epoch should be drawing to its close: in this century, the next century or this millennium.

But the slight beneficial warming at the end of the 20th century to the Modern high point has been transmuted into the “Great Man-made Global Warming Scare”.

The recent warming since the end of the Little Ice Age has been wholly beneficial when compared to the devastating impacts arising from the relatively minor cooling of the Little Ice Age, which include:

• Decolonisation of Greenland
• Black death
• French revolution
• Failures of the Inca and Angkor Wat civilisations
• etc., etc.

As global temperatures have already been showing stagnation or cooling over the last nineteen years or more, the world should now fear the real and detrimental effects of cooling, rather than being hysterical about limited, beneficial or probably now non-existent further warming.

Warmer times are times of success and prosperity both for man-kind and the biosphere.

One should think of the Holocene interglacial epoch as a whole with its progressively cooler and cooler warm episodes:

• the Holocene Climate Optimum
• the Minoan warming
• the Roman warming
• the Medieval warm period
• recent modern warming, 1975 – 2000.

For example during the Roman warm period the climate was warmer and wetter so that the Northern Sahara was the breadbasket of the Roman empire .

According to the Ice Core records, each of these successive Holocene warm periods have been cooler than the one previously and a tipping point towards accelerated global cooling occurred at about 1000BC.

The coming end of the present Holocene interglacial will in due course again result in a mile high ice sheet over much of the Northern hemisphere. As the Holocene epoch is already about 11,000 years old, the reversion to a true ice age is almost overdue and would be the real climate catastrophe.

With the present reducing Solar activity, significantly reduced temperatures, at least to the level of another Little Ice Age are predicted for later this century .

Whether the present impending cooling will really lead on to a coming glacial ice age or not is still in question.

This point is more fully illustrated here:

25 thoughts on “Now the coldest millennium in 8,000 years”

  1. “Please, will someone show this graph to President Trump.”

    Indeed. When he announces that he’s pulling out of the Paris thingy, and the press attacks him, he could pull it out of his pocket, ask staff to hand one to each reporter in the room, and say, “I keep looking at this data here, and I asked my self, ‘why isn’t the media passing this along to the public.? “

  2. Quote:
    Decolonisation of Greenland:
    Can we call a spade a spade please?
    The Wolf GSM within a “20” year period converted a marginal crofting Farming zone into an Ice tundra death trap.
    Famine isn’t decolonisation, given its 20 century connotations of a retreat from Saigon via helicopter, but a several hundred mile sea trip in an open Viking long ship and then only in the following spring. For several hundred humans it was a spring to far.

  3. “Please, will someone show this graph to President Trump ?”

    By this statement are you beginning to suspect, as I firmly believe, that Trump will not honour his pledge to withdraw the US from the Paris agreement and end all US funding of UN climate programs ?

    • The Black Death had nothing to do with it being colder (really, I’ve studied that disease quite a bit, more than climate even). Plague is caused by a bacteria, transmitted by fleas usually (although the pneumonic form can be transmitted in the air by an infected person coughing). Wild animals are the reservoir of infection… and not just rats.

      The disease continues to be a threat to the world because of sylvatic plague, which is the same disease only what they call it when it occurs in in wildlife. Some animals can get it but show little or no symptoms; some get sick but don’t die off … and others, not unlike humans, have large die offs.

      There are some very hot places where it is still endemic in wildlife and where some human cases still occucr (although it tends to get hushed up in the news). Plague is endemic in Vietnam and in wildlife (mainly in more remote areas, so less of a concern) in all of the western US. Southern CA has it, mainly in ground squirrels. Arizona and New Mexico are where the largest number of human plague cases in the US have occurred in the past few decades; most recently in suburban areas bordering brushy habitat. A few years back there was a case of human pneumonic plague in a person from India, with a major concern due to the fact he was on an international flight when it became apparent he was sick. None of those places are cold, so it is likely the apparent correlation with that Ice Age is more coincidental or due to bad hygiene, where rats proliferate and get closer to people. Although many communicable diseases will increase in colder periods where people live closer together in cities and stay indoors more than outdoors.

      • I am a qualified and experienced Environmental Health Officer and I say that the Black Death in Europe clearly had a primary relationship to the living standards of the day.

        They didn’t know about bacteria and considered rats and fleas a nuisance and ignored them.

        Large numbers of rats were driven to infest human habitation in higher numbers due to the depletion of their food supplies “in the wild”. This depletion of their food supplies can clearly be associated with the onset of cold weather which began at the same time as the Plague epidemic in Europe.

        However to assert that a modern society will be ravaged by a resurgence of Yersinia pestis due to cold is almost as silly as asserting CO2 controls the climate.

        Sure the impoverished are always at higher risk of easily treatable disease but the advanced societies of the “west” don’t care about these people – if we truly did care we’d provide them with cheap hydrocarbon based electricity and assist them to treat waste, purify water and improve rural and residential sanitation.

        We don’t do this because of the absurdity surrounding CO2 and climate and we stand condemned by our inhumanity !

        • Agreed Rosco… and BTW, I’m an experienced and qualified epidemiologist. Although my education was an MS in geography (from what is now the geosiences department at a university which unfortunately has a reputation for “leadership” in the AGW nonsense); my thesis was a disaster epidemiology project, deaths & injuries due to earthquakes.

          I took also quite a bit of medical entomology and would have probably ended up doing that instead but for the fact I discovered I was bad at chemistry…. so I’ve focused more on injury epidemiology (and earlier in my career … in analyzing vital statistics, mostly death data).

      • Have you given it any thought that hungry, malnourished people tend to get sick more easily than are people that are well fed? No, the cold didn’t “cause” the plague, it made it easier for it to spread. So yes, the black death legitimately is part of the legacy of the little ice age.

        • I certainly have… I was hungry and malnourished myself at one point in my life (I was single and pregnant at 18, experienced hunger and homelessness during my pregnancy and lived in a tent for 4 months before my son was 1).

          I didn’t get a chance to improve my life until I was finally able to turn my life around from youthful bad choices and eventually figure out how to get to go to college; starting at 30. Didn’t get above the poverty line until after my son grew up and left home and really start making “decent” money until I was in my 40s.

          But lots of people in hot climates are also hungry and malnurished. India? Haiti? etc. And don’t forget… Africa.. which is possibly the least healthy place in the world to live and has an overabundance of hungry, malnurished people.. often with multiple parasitic diseases… .and it is plenty “warm” there.

  4. “Now the coldest millennium in 8,000 years” Not many scientists mention this. Greenland’s been cooling for 3,000 years or so, this is not a brief dip but part of a long-term cooling. The recent brief, small spike in temperatures doesn’t negate 3,000 years of cooling.

    • No, somewhere between Dalton and Wolf, both are dual cycle GSMs like the LALIA and this modern GSM, both Spoorer and Maunder are much lower in temperature, both of these named GSMs were paired, Dual solar grand minimum cycle periods with a Gleissberg cool period between them.
      Look at Lake Constance icing over, to a depth a man could walk across it dragging a Christmas tree for periods in the historical record, and the freeze periods for the lower reaches of the Thames until the Embankment was built and the old London bridge being torn down speeding up the flow of the Thames though the tidal reach, and since that time Power station cooling water has put paid to most freezing UK river events since the 1950s.
      Graph5. New compilation of Solar Proxy records showing a very good match between 14C & 10Be. Angular Momentum Disturbance Strength curve in purple showing another very good match. The Holocene Solar activity and Temperature a direct result of Angular Momentum?
      Take a look at the above chart, then review the following site , I would suggest that cold climate change is at work here:

  5. I think it will be blatantly obvious in 5 years, and by 2030 the AGW revenue drainers will become AGC revenue drainers. I suspect carbon will still be blamed for Anthropogenic Global Cooling because you cant tax sunspots, and you cant tax chem trails . Remember chem trails? Haven’t many of those lately…. Wonder why?

  6. It does actually make things easier for people who have their eyes open to prepare for what is going to come. There will be a stampede it is just a matter of when. Some of us will have already managed to secure their future. I am now helping to get my brothers and sisters more prepared as they are slowly starting to see the light.

  7. with cold comes DRY
    so some serious lack of water issues in some areas as the water vapour gets transmuted to ice n snow.
    Australia was, one gathers, very dry when we had our smallish ice and glaciation events here too.
    the cold knocked the lusher tropical plants off, and we got left with dry n cold tolerant gumtrees, woody weeds basically;-(
    and they adapted to hot n dry as well;-/

  8. I too worry about Trump going back on his promise to get us out of the AGW hoax. I half wonder if it is due to his move to DC… it’s a LOT hotter down there than it is in NY, so maybe it sounds more reasonable if that’s where you’re living.

    I live about 3.5 hours south of DC (not counting traffic jams, which always happen), in southeastern VA. This year we are having a very up and down “spring” … a week or so of unseasonably hot followed by a week or so of unseasonably cold and wet. We are also getting a later “thunderstorm season” than usual… it is common to get severe storms (even occasional tornadoes) in this area… but it usually would have stopped by now. Still getting that very unsettled weather we more often get in early spring, not this close to June.

  9. What is the point? He might never be allowed to see it and if he did his advisers would insist that it is false news cooked up by alarmists and insane wild eyed conspiracy theorists. If that didn’t work the house of representatives and the senate would vote down any measure based on that graph that doesn’t fit their agenda. If you want to get out of harms way you all had best do it for yourselves because the powers that be are not interested and are almost totally useless and that is the best case scenario.

  10. this is an exciting time we’re living in.

    i want to live and see the start of an ice age.

    i’m 51. do you think i will live to see a full blown cooling.

    i want my brain frozen and revived 500 years later to see the 1 mile high thick ice sheets over new york. i want to see liberals crushed by glaciers

    • You are already in an Ice Age, which has been running 2.5 Million years, with brief warm bit every 100,000 year or so.
      If you manage to live a further 1000 years from now you might just see the event start, but then again there won’t be much to see in 90 mile an hour Blizzard pushing horizontal snow and with 0% visibility and -30C.
      A major glacial event will probably end this technological human epoch and make room for the next higher life form experiment, evolution chooses to promote, so the chance of being thawed out is 0 as the technology and energy to support such an endeavour would cease to exist probably within 20 years of the glacial event starting.
      A recent paper suggested that all traces of a human presence would cease in around 55,000 years, including glass.
      Rather than spending a fortune on Carbon Credits, we should really start to think, and then plan on how the Human race is to survive this on coming glacial catastrophe.
      The time scales we are talking about is from Alfred the Great to present day, or from the start of the Medieval warm period to the end of the Modern warm period. This is but a blink of the eye in historical time scales.

      • Actually the warm interglacial lasts an average of 11,500 years and the major glaciation lasts an average of 105,000 years, A drop into the deep freeze may be closer than you think. One ought not give people the false hope of normalcy for another 1,000 years. The average transition period has been found to be between 3 to 20 years to go from an interglacial to a major glaciation. Mankind needs to prepare for the transition and outcome and not indulge in normalcy bias.

  11. If that chart is accurate, we are looking at temps far below what was experienced during the Little Ice Age.
    Is that possible?

  12. This gets me –
    “For its first 7-8000 years the early Holocene, including its high point known as the “climate optimum”, temperatures have been virtually flat, with an average drop of only ~0.007 °C per millennium.”

    One look at the chart definitely does not support the statement made. Yes, the “trend” appears relatively flat, but that is NOT what is said. And the chart doesn’t even give us temperatures, it gives us anomalies. Since, my understanding may be wrong here, an anomaly is the difference from some mythical “average,” what to hell is this mythical average that is the basis of the graph? This reminds me of most of the useless “window dressing” the alarmists uses to confuse. give me data, not interpretations or anomalies.

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