Pacific Ocean far warmer than normal – NOT our fault

Pacific Ocean far warmer than normal – NOT our fault

Recent headlines downplay the importance of this super-heated water by calling it a “warm blob,” but this particular blob – which covers one million square miles! – can help explain the deceptive claims of “warmest year on record.”

It could also trigger the next ice age.
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Pacific Ocean far warmer than normal – NOT our fault

By Robert W. Felix
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Record heat on the West Coast, record cold and snow on the East Coast, fish swimming into new waters, and hungry seals washing up on California beaches.

All of this and more can be blamed on a huge ‘blob’ of warm water off the West Coast, about 1 to 4 degrees Celsius (2 to 7 F) above normal, says a University of Washington news release.

According to climate scientist Nick Bond at the University of Washington, the “warm anomaly” is behind California’s ongoing warm and dry winters.


The warm blob earlier this week squished up against the U.S. West Coast. Scale in degrees Celsius (each increment is 1.8 F). NOAA National Climate Data Center
The warm blob earlier this week squished up against the U.S. West Coast. Scale in degrees Celsius (each increment is 1.8 F). NOAA National Climate Data Center

Discovered in the fall of 2013, the area of super-heated water is roughly 1,000 miles in each direction, about 300 feet deep, and is about 3°C (5°F) warmer normal for that part of the Pacific ocean, according to Bond.

Bond, who coined the term “the blob” last June in his monthly newsletter as Washington state climatologist, said as air passes over the huge patch of warm water it brings more heat and less snow to coastal areas, which helped cause drought conditions in California, Oregon and Washington.

Brings very cold, wet air to the central and eastern states

The blob’s influence may reach much farther inland– possibly including the last two brutal winters in the eastern U.S.

A separate study by UW professor of atmospheric sciences Dennis Hartmann explores the relationship between the warm anomaly and the cold 2013-14 winter in the central and eastern United States.

Hartmann found a decadal-scale pattern in the tropical Pacific Ocean and North Pacific that brings warm and dry air to the West Coast and very cold, wet air to the central and eastern states.

In a blog post last month, Hartmann focused on the winter of 2014-15 and argued that, once again, the root cause was surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific.

Second only to El Niño

That pattern seems to have become stronger since about 1980, and lately become second only to El Niño in its influence on global weather patterns, says Hartmann.

Today, the blob is still out there, “squished up against the coast and extending about 1,000 miles offshore from Mexico up through Alaska, with water about 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) warmer than normal.”

Not exactly a small “blob”

The media may call it a “blob,” but please note that the “warm anomaly” is not only 1,000 miles wide, it is also 1,000 miles long.

Multiply 1,000 by 1,000, and you come to the startling realization that this monster patch of warmer-than-normal water covers one-million square miles.

Enabling “warmest year on record” pronouncements

I think NASA is using this huge area of super-heated water to bolster its deceptive “warmest year on record” pronouncements.

Remember if you will, NASA’s claim that 2014 was the warmest year on record.  Now, NOAA claims that we just endured  the warmest March on record.

How did NASA and NOAA come up with those claims? Because both of these politically motivated entities use globally averaged temperature taken over both the land and the oceans.

Yes, both the land and the oceans.

Look at a globe. The world’s oceans cover almost 71% of our planet. No wonder the numbers are skewed.

Parts of the oceans now warmest on record –
and again, it is NOT caused by humans

But it gets worse. Not only are large portions of the oceans much warmer than normal, they are the warmest on record, according this map from NOAA. (The areas in bright red are the warmest on record, says NOAA.)


Blended Land and Ocean Temps-Mar 2015-NOAA
March 2015 Blended Land & Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies in °C.

Bond, along with co-authors Meghan CroninNate Mantua and Howard Freeland, believe the warm anomaly was created when a high-pressure system got stuck over the blob’s location, allowing the ocean water to stay calmer and warmer.

Megaplumes

But I’m more inclined to agree with geologist James Kamis, who thinks the blob has all the characteristics of a megaplume. Megaplumes are massive underwater vents – underwater volcanoes, in other words – that spew vast amounts of heat into the ocean.

Kamis thinks the giant cell of warm water, heated by submarine volcanoes, is altering normal California climate patterns and inducing a long term drought.


Generation of deep-ocean megaplume
Generation of deep-ocean megaplume

Not only do I agree with Kamis, but I take it one step further. I fear that this super-heated cell of warm water could lead us into the next ice age.

And that is exactly what I say in Not by Fire but by Ice.

As underwater volcanoes heat the seas, ever more moisture rises into the skies. If those skies have been cooled by above-water volcanoes – presto! – you have the recipe for a new ice-age.

Warmer seas and colder skies . . . a deadly combination.

Sources:

University of Washington News Release
http://www.washington.edu/news/2015/04/09/warm-blob-in-pacific-ocean-linked-to-weird-weather-across-the-u-s/

Two new studies show that global warming is not behind California drought
http://www.examiner.com/article/two-new-studies-show-that-global-warming-is-not-behind-california-drought

A 1,000 Mile Stretch Of The Pacific Ocean Has Heated Up Several Degrees And Scientists Don’t Know Why
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-04-14/1000-mile-stretch-pacific-ocean-has-heated-several-degrees-and-scientists-don%E2%80%99t-know

Collapse of the food chain in the Pacific Ocean
http://endoftheamericandream.com/archives/a-1000-mile-stretch-of-the-pacific-ocean-has-heated-up-several-degrees-and-scientists-dont-know-why

Collapse of the food chain in the Pacific Ocean
http://www.shtfplan.com/headline-news/food-chain-catastrophe-emergency-shut-down-of-west-coast-fisheries-populations-have-crashed-91-percent_041

NOAA’s Blended Land and Ocean Temps Map – Larger Image
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/service/global/map-percentile-mntp/201503.gif

Image – Generation of deep-ocean megaplume
http://www.examiner.com/slideshow/pacific-ocean-warming-blob-fuels-california-s-drought

Thanks to Roger Oomkens, Richard Tate, C. Thaxter, Stanislav Lem and Brian Payne for these links

“Just finished your book “Not by Fire but by Ice,” says Richard. “A really good read.”

Then almost like fate, I see this article about a huge area of the Pacific rapidly heating up as of the last two years………”


44 thoughts on “Pacific Ocean far warmer than normal – NOT our fault

  1. There could be something to your theory Robert if enough super heated water comes out of the volcanic vents and hot springs.
    It has to be enough to change the temperature of a huge volume of water and not just have a local effect. On the other hand the area showing a warm temperature is generally in the area of the
    Juan de Fuca ridge. It would not be a bad idea if on site temperature readings from sea floor to surface were taken to be sure of what is going on.

  2. In the last post the comment was made “Global Warming? The Pope is wrong”. I guess that person doesn’t know the Pope is infallible ;>>

    Several weeks ago I was in CA visiting my family. While there my son and I went ocean kayaking. The water had to be 5 to 8 degree’s warmer than I had ever experienced and I spent most of my idle time as a youth in those same waters.

    It was very odd. I wonder, with all the technology we have in the sky’s and on the seas and with our military under the sea’s, why don’t we know where this warm water is originating from?

    It’s time American politicians to stop jerking us around with this global warming agenda and start behaving like a responsible government with a duty to protect it’s citizens.

    • There are some things that a government cannot protect us from. Of course if they admitted this, we might then question why we even need them.

        • 300 METERS of rise in elevation?! That would be like one of those CGI created catastrophes from a Hollywood movie, say the schlockmeister movie 2012?

          The linked Japanese report says the rise was about 50ft, but the raised point of land was fairly small. Still, a 50ft rise in such a short period of time for even a tiny portion of land is absolutely incredible.

          I have been wondering for several years now if the coming (supposed) large decrease in solar activity would be accompanied by an attendant and proportional increase in volcanic activity worldwide. I expect that those still engage in honorable and ethical science and who do not simply tow the Klimate Kultist line already know the answer to this question, although they will be harassed, harangued and assaulted by the Kultists to prevent them from speaking about their findings in any large public forum. That will certainly be true for any Big Media outlet.

      • Yep, with an active inquisition, that exacts penalties such as loss of job, pension, and harassment by lollypop stealing, gerrymandered politicos, and then being burnt at the public opinion media stake by a biased American Media owned by the very fraudsters pushing AGW and carbon credits.

  3. Nice to read something that “smacks” of reality. Living here on the California central coast the “blob” is of huge interest for me.
    Any idea where these volcanoes are located? I doubt there is comparable data to the on-land volcanoes…..

    Not by fire and magnetic reversals were both great reads. Thank you.

  4. The blob is probably due to recent ESNO events proceeding it and then the warm water from ENSO gave rise to the ridge, not the other way around.

    I think the blob will start to dissipate and sea surface temperatures in general should start to level off if not fall in response to prolonged minimum solar conditions going forward.

    • Actually, the blob has been around since shortly after the mega quake in Japan. It more or less started forming off the coast of Asia in the 11-12 period, I believe, and moved somewhat towards the Gulf of Alaska in 12-13, and started dropping down the west coast last year. It appears to be following the circulation pattern in the Pacific. If that’s the case, it ought to move down off Mexico next year and join into the equatorial waters the year after, probably helping to cause a major el Niño event in 17-18.

      Yes, this could reasonably be a precursor to the next ice age, whether mini or not so mini. All that from no science, just conjecture.

      • The blob is a megaplume, and came from the Fukushima Quake? I’m an engineer, not a scientist, but I know how to use the internet. The quake occurred in April of 2011. One year later in April of 2012, the blob was noticed in the Pacific by NOAA:

        http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2012/anomnight.4.9.2012.gif

        The location of the blob east of the underwater earthquake, extending west toward the epicenter, looks promising. I’ll leave it to others to seek other, earlier ocean data closer to the epicenter and shortly after the quake, But I wouldn’t rule out the Fukushima event as a cause.

        Given that the area devastated by the tsunami has suffered multiple similar events caused by the same ocean rift, a connection might be made to other climate effects on the West Coast in the past.

  5. So now they have another catchy phrase to use the “Blob” they sacrifice their professional careers for an agenda. Call it what they will but there are three things they will never say, we aren’t resposibile, it’s all politicly driven and tell everyone for once and for all the truth.

  6. This is very reasonable and needs to be considered.

    D’Aleo says a “super La Nina in 2010/11 (2nd strongest in 120 years, by some measures), set up warm water in the central Pacific and cold water near the west coast of North America” and caused drought in the west and frigid weather in the east.

    “That warm water came east first to off of Alaska last year leading to the historic winter near the western Lakes and North Central and then the warm water was carried by the currents southeast to the entire west coast forcing the cold to take aim more on the eastern Lakes and Northeast,” D’Aleo wrote.

  7. I am surprised that some climate alarmist hasn’t claimed this: “See, see, the warming was hiding in the oceans after all and came out as that blob in the North Pacific!”

    I guess they do know shame?

  8. An interesting experiment to compare radiation cooling in a vacuum with normal and forced convection cooling can be read here:-

    http://www.physics.ucc.ie/staff/Didfyz%20paper.pdf

    The take home message is that forced convection results in significantly faster cooling rates than either “natural” (no forced air movements) or radiation alone.

    The same result applies in liquids where obvious convection in the form of ocean currents moves “heat” around the oceans.

    Extremely hot plumes of water are quickly moved around the cooler oceans as is shown in the diagram.

    We all know of the “ring of fire” – the area around the Pacific where tectonic activity regularly causes earthquakes and volcanic eruptions both under the oceans.

    How many of these exist and how often they erupt we do not know but I find it amazing so called “scientists” discount any contribution to global warming.

    As Earth revolves around the Sun the top of atmosphere solar radiation varies from ~1321 W/sqm. to ~1412 W/sqm.

    Not only is that 100 times the supposed radiative forcing of CO2 – 0.9 W/sqm – but currently the maximum coincides with the southern hemisphere summer.

    Imagine the much greater land mass of the northern hemisphere heated by an extra ~100 W/sqm in summer in ~10,000 years when the orbital parameters change to cause the northern hemisphere summer to coincide with the perihelion.

    There’d be some global warming then – most of the southern hemisphere exposed to higher radiation levels is water.

    Paradoxically the northern hemisphere winter would see the TOA solar radiation at ~1321 W/sqm instead of the current ~1412 W/sqm of today and winters could be significantly colder.

  9. Interesting that sun spots are not the only indicators for what solar energy may come the planet’s way … there are streams from coronal holes … there are filament snaps than can release solar energy …

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kVooboOzaiM

    One might wonder, as well, what if volcanic activity is on the uptick under Arctic ice (underwater there ?) and Antarctic ice (land volcanoes there, under that ice?) … on average …

    • It’s the areas around the Sun spots which release EUV, called the phage area. Big spots have lots of phage and emit lots of EUV. Small spots have smaller phage areas and don’t last as long. It’s the EUV which is the most variable, by up to 16% and has most effect on the Earth climate.
      A second point is the gravitational effects of the Sun and the four Jovian Gas giants on the Earth’s plate tectonics. With the Sun and Saturn forming one half of the Solar Barry Centre and Jupiter, Neptune and Uranus in the other half, the earth orbits between them on its path around the Sun. The Earth must come in for quite a bit of opposition pulling and tugging. No wonder that Solar Minimums experience a higher ratio of rift eruptions and severe earthquakes. The Nepalese earth quakes look to be periodic and may be triggered by gravity effects.

  10. Robert, isn’t the warm water off the West Coast part of the normal PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) process ? Are the temperatures of the waters more extensive, longer lasting or more widespread than measured in the past? Would it not take more than just the warm water off the West Coast to cause an ice age? Thank you in advance.

  11. Simply amazing how the earth will try to maintain a constant global temperature inside the domain of the shield.
    The sun goes hot, the volcanoes simmer.
    The sun goes cold, the volcanoes boil.
    The sun stays cold for a long duration, I tend to agree with Robert that the sub-volcanoes will continue to super-heat the ring of fire. Please correct me if incorrect here; then with the abundance of hydrocarbons needed to produce above ground expulsions will produce on a grand scale more cloud cover and H2O. Any hydrocarbon motor I have ever worked with the end resultant from combustion is water and is proportional to the efficiency of the burn.
    One super away from at least a little ice age eh.

  12. Brilliant. Add some well intentioned but completely miss timed chem trials, and you’ve accelerated the rate at which the regional and macro albedo change to a super cooling trend. It’s almost May and the weather on the Mid to Northern Atlantic Coast is struggling to stay above freezing overnight. A summer with lows persistently in the low 60’s to 50’s overnight will be the undeniable empirical indicator for those who don’t adjust their data. LOL.

  13. Quote: Bond, along with co-authors Meghan Cronin, Nate Mantua and Howard Freeland, believe the warm anomaly was created when a high-pressure system got stuck over the blob’s location, allowing the ocean water to stay calmer and warmer.
    There is also an opposite effect when a low pressure system get stuck roughly at the same latitude in the Atlantic on the cold side of the jet stream, as happened this year during the creating very rough conditions and very cold water, sufficient to break up the Gulf Stream plume between Iceland and Scotland it also created one of the best Surf seasons on the West coast of Europe for some time.
    I would add another point, the Aleutian island chain is acting as a barrier to the Wind driven warm surface water being pushed up the West Coast of America causing it to Gyrate, that warm water originated off the coast of South East Asia in the mid pacific driven there by the changed routes of the NH Jet Streams. NOAA will continue to clutch at straws over warmest this, or that. The heat stored during the recent Solar Warm Period is being expended quickly. Their hockey stick graph has turned south sharply towards cold.
    The north east of America has better get used to another 10 harsh winters on the TROT.
    Oh and bye the way, you had better build a few bigger ice breakers and expect thick Ice on the Great lakes during most of May in the future. You might get a short respite around 2028 for a few years and then another 12 years of harsh winters

  14. There are many people who cannot join the dots, and cannot see the truth staring them in the face. Robert Felix ‘is not’ one of these people, for he has been joining the dots of reality for a very long time, and it’s about time we took more notice of his warnings.

  15. Although a warm and dry California winter may have resulted from the ” blob” of warm Pacific water this year, it could hardly become a climate norm. Why? The Sierra Nevada crest shows evidence of extensive glaciation in past millennia, meaning that extraordinary amounts of snow had to have fallen there. Perhaps the “blob” moves further west. In any event, the north-south course of the jet stream must also shift west, bringing greater amounts of moisture up from the south while dragging colder air down from the north.

  16. Watch those idiot SOB left wing lunatics blame it on your 15 watch porch lights! You just wait!
    Get ready for those retards (like Viner and Gore) to start screaming that non-sense at your kids in schools across the country. They’ll blame it on your dad’s razor, or your mom’s cell phone, or even your home PC!! They’ll scream that “your parents and their evil SUV’s are warming the Pacific ocean and destroying the planet…etc…etc.”
    Just a heads up on this folks. Because those are the nut jobs and smoking crack heads running our schools and government now LOL.
    Vote Ronald Reagan 2016!

  17. so there any connection with the nuke accident events in Japan after the tsunami? or perhaps a clue to be gained as to when San Adreas might slip next and where, we know it’s coming just not when

    • No, see carefix below April 29, 2015 at 3:52 am.
      This is about the energy released by 500,000 megaton nuclear bombs or 24,000 x the energy released by Krakatau or three hours worth of global incident sunlight.
      The five reactors had about a ton of fissile material between them at a temperature whilst running at a couple hundreds degrees, they might have had sufficient retained energy to keep the same number of swimming pools warm for the period to date.

  18. But for real, there certainly is a meteorological connection between warm Eastern Pacific SST’s and cold winters East of the Rockies. Warm water off the west coast intensifies the ridge (known as +PNA ridge in winter) along the US west coast north toward Alaska, then in turn forces a polar trough downstream into the central/eastern USA. So that translates to warm & dry western US and cold and snowy eastern US, especially if a strong Greenland block is present along with the western ridge. I also certainly agree that underwater volcanoes are on the increase and more likely the primary reason for the super warm water in the eastern Pacific and other warm pool anomalies in the oceans. Lets see if this warm water persists into next winter.

  19. Where I live (on the west coast – near the 49th parallel) a search of LOCAL weather records shows, since 1950, the five COLDEST and five WARMEST days all occurred PRIOR to 1988.
    This past winter has been pleasantly mild & wet, but no records, so perhaps we can thank the BLOB!

  20. I make it 2 x 10^21 Joules of energy at a uniform 3 degrees celcius elevation. This is about the energy released by 500,000 megaton nuclear bombs or 24,000 x the energy released by Krakatoa or three hours worth of global incident sunlight.

    That is a lot of energy to have gathered itself up, stuck its tongue out at entropy and deposited itself in the middle of an ocean.

  21. We got recently a similar phenomenon in Antarctica which the climate alarmists hurried in to label it a consequence of the AGW when scientists noticed some big glaciers were melting at an unusual pace. It was discovered later that there was a strong volcanic activity under the glaciers that made them to melt.

    • Not melt in place but provides more water at the base of the glacier as a lubricant to allow it to move faster to the oceans, as it moved faster towards the ocean the area around the geological hot spots thinned slightly via radar measurement. A similar situation is occurring over a rift point in Greenland with ice moving more quickly towards the ocean because of the water lubricant being provided.

  22. During the little ice age were there more constent el ninos and flood in california due to ocean warming?

  23. During the little ice age were there more constent el ninos and flood in california due to ocean warming robert

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