Potential “worst natural disaster on record for Carolinas”

Warning from meteorologist Joe Bastardi about hurricane Florence. Three to four feet (a meter or more) of rain in some places.

“Since Wednesday we have had this going inland over NC and then crawling into VA,” said Bastardi on Twitter. “Should this turn out correct, this is likely to be the worst natural disaster on record for Carolinas into VA Major hit combined with 3-4 feet of rain in some places over 3-4 day period.”

The Weather Channel confirms that this will be “a major hurricane.”

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi

https://weather.com/safety/hurricane/news/2018-09-09-hurricane-florence-forecast-southeast-coast

Thanks to LGL for these links


24 thoughts on “Potential “worst natural disaster on record for Carolinas”

  1. should be well north of Charleston though, according to all the models runs I’ve looked at. Eastern NC should feel most of the effects.

    Ok lets take a closer look at cyclone number 6 in the Atlantic.

    As I suspected 4 days ago, this cyclone (Florence) should make landfall well to our north – definitely not south of Myrtle Beach. The particular model solution at the very bottom is an outlier – as you typically always have some spread in the solutions. At the current latitude it seems unlikely that a direct hit on Charleston will occur – it would have to go straight West for that to happen and the high to the North that’s steering the system is moving east – so a NW turn is likely towards the NC coast within 72 hours.

    So unless something drastically changes with the steering currents, (or the strength to the ridge to our north) I think most of CHS should be ok with mostly some gusty N to NW winds the second half of the week. No guarantees yet, but this should be the most likely outcome.

    As we can see at the surface, relatively strong high pressure (1028mb) exists near SE Canada and New England – but is expected to move East over the next 96 hours along with a weakness in the upper level ridge. These changes in steering currents should cause the system to move increasingly poleward beyond 72 hours and eventually closer to the NC coast. The system should be located well East of Georgetown,SC within 72 hours – which is already north of Charleston. Therefore, a direct hit on CHS would seem unlikely.
    The most likely window of landfall will likely be anywhere from Myrtle Beach,SC to Hatteras by the second half of the week. However the SW quadrant of the cyclone should still produce some gusty NW winds along coastal SC south of Myrtle Beach, but should remain below TS force.
    http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/al062018_ens.png

    12zGFS shows the 1036mb surface high over just SE of Newfoundland within 36 hrs, the cyclone 6 now well East of Savannah in the West Atlantic.
    By 72 hours, a more poleward motion of cyclone 6 becomes more apparent in response to high pressure to the North moving further East of Newfoundland and weakens to 1033mb. (note the pressure difference 5 contours between center of the high and Georgia)
    By 96 hours the sfc high weakens to 1025mb well East of Newfoundland with a surface ridge over New England of 1027mb over New England. Note the ridge over New England will not be as extensive as the original sfc high near Newfoundland at present, with the isobars showing only 3 contours between New England and SC.
    This plus a deepening of cyclone 6 should favor a poleward (NW) motion beyond 72 hours at the very least as steering currents become more SE in response to a break in the upper level ridge and a now weaker sfc ridge to the north, allowing for a less perpendicular motion (and a more poleward motion) toward the SE coast at about 315 degrees.
    Note by 120hrs the sfc high exists over Newfoundland again (although weaker) at 1027mb, with 3 contours present between there and SC. As a result, the cyclone 6 should be somewhere near Eastern NC.

    There are some indications that beyond that timeframe, the cyclone may wobble for some time between day 5 and day 7 off the NC coast as a breakdown of steering currents commences. This is in fact due to a realignment of the pressure pattern as high pressure moves well east of Newfoundland and an approaching deep layered trough at upper levels begins to approach from the West by around 168 hour timeframe. As the ridge erodes at the surface and aloft north of the cyclone, the system should finally begin to accelerate to the NE and away from the US as it begins to feel the effects of the trough to the West beyond day 7.
    Strong cool sfc high pressure should be located over the Upper MS Valley by day 8 (Sept 17) ushering in fall across the eastern US.

    for all links to the current GFS runs, click on http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/namer/10m_wnd_precip/gfs_namer_036_10m_wnd_precip.gif

    (they are subject to change)

  2. I feel for them. Flood water is no picnic. The 14 feet we had in New Orleans with katrina is something I never want to go through that again.

    • true that floods are crap to be in, know from experience.
      however katrina didnt dump that much as rain did she?
      it was badly maintained levies and pretty much intentional neglect by the govt who wanted those areas “cleared out” for their urban renewals..or so I understood it from later reports.

      • well it’s my understanding that ever since NOLA was settled it has been below sea level. Should have never been built there at all, if you ask me! But it is an interesting city with fantastic food… everywhere.

        I have visited several times and once considered going to college there…
        one of the more interesting things is that a lot of the graves are in above ground structures because after hurricanes they kept having trouble with coffins and/or corpses floating around.

  3. All joking put aside, we may want to send wharver
    We can to charities for disaster relief even if it is just a little. Anything we can do will be appriciated by them once it is over.

  4. NOT looking forward to this. I have to go to a training in Norfolk Weds and have to stay over Tues night at least and possibly Weds night… at this point planning on driving home Thurs AM but will keep a close eye on the weather.

    Once I get home I will be right smack in the potential heavy rain area (Isle of Wight County), where the Pagan & James rivers meet. Fortunately my house is on a bluff, usually the heavy rain drains into the swamp rather than floods… but in this last few days there has been so much heavy rain a lot of people’s yards nearby are already full of water and some roads have been closed for short periods… and that is before the new storm.

    My neighbor (semi retired police officer) tells me when Isabel hit we were out of power for 2 weeks… so I’d best prepare for that!

    I’ve also seen more mosquitoes in the past few months than I have seen in the total 12 years I’ve lived here.

    • well the good news is… they cancelled that meeting in Norfolk so I did not have to go there and am snug at home instead. Counting my blessings!

  5. I live near Cape Fear. This thing is making for a direct hit here. Somewhere I read about the possibility for a 20-foot storm surge. Pretty scary right now.

  6. Highly recommend Joe’s three to six minute “Daily Update” every morning at WeatherBell.com
    Today’s (Monday) discussion covers all of the activity in the N. Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico. Residents inland from the coast in NC and SC, such as CLT, AVL, GSP, need to pay attention to what is coming late this week. Concern is the storm may stall out (massive rain), and/or hook left or right.

  7. I went through the 50-60″ rain last year in Houston and it was not so bad because we are flat. Just rising water..but not the torrents if get so much rain in mountains inland in NC and VA

  8. Hurricane Floyd hit North Carolina in 1999 with devastating flooding. It came a week after Hurricane Dennis so there was no where for the water to go.

    52 people died and many areas never recovered from the flooding.

    So when they say the worst on record – it is important to actually remember the record.

    • I flew over NC days after the Hurricane Floyd disaster. The outer banks were like gone and the eastern shore looked more like the Atlantic. One thing I remember was the massive loss of livestock hogs and the like.

  9. A lot of the mid-Atlantic coast (especially the Outer Banks and VA Beach) are coastal barrier islands, i.e., big (or sometimes small) sand bars, nothing more.

    Coastal barrier island naturally “move” locations as sand deposits pile up or are reduced due to wave action, but when you build on them… then you disrupt the system and therein lies the most hazardous situation.

  10. The Federal Reserve is fully responsible, if it turns out to be the “worst natural disaster on record.” Their inflation mandate (always under-reported), and ability to create “money” out of thin air makes everything more expensive. More people + more expensive inputs = higher cost.

    Wake the f*ck up people.

  11. water , food , tarps ,ammunition ,flashlights, gasoline ,radio ,generator….
    It’s gonna be a madhouse ,say your prayers .
    We must blame Trump for this , it is all HIS fault !
    If you people had voted for Gore years ago then this would not be happening now !

    IRMA = I Remember Mom Always

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