If it quacks like a duck … it must be a turtle

“Why We’re Definitely Not Headed for Another Ice Age.”

When I saw that headline in Newsweek, I thought, do they know something that I don’t? But once I read the article, it left me wondering how in the world they came to that conclusion.

It reminds me of the great retort by paleontologist Robert Bakker to those who did not agree with his belief that many kinds of dinosaurs were birds.

“There are still a few of my colleagues who think if it walks like a duck, breathes like a duck and grows like a duck, it must be a turtle,” said Bakker.

Let’s see if this Newsweek article is a duck or a turtle.

It starts out by admitting that “there are currently very low levels of activity on the sun – the lowest in more than 100 years – and they are likely to fall further.”

So far so good. I agree.

Then the article reminds us of the “crippling winters” between 2008 and 2010 that closed airports and paralyzed transport systems in western Europe and the eastern United States. (Interestingly, it fails to mention the record cold and snow this past winter in the United States, nor the record cold in the U.S. Midwest this summer.)

The article then describes the Maunder Minimum, a 70-year period between 1645 and 1715 when solar activity almost stopped. It even discloses that the Maunder Minimum coincided with a period of bitter winters known as “the little ice age.”

This is all true.

And finally, the article quotes Mike Lockwood, Professor of Space Environment Physics at Reading University:

“When you look at the overall trend of solar magnetic fields and things, then you see that we’ve now had three cycles where every (solar) maximum has got weaker, every minimum has got deeper, and there’s no reason not to expect that trend to continue. It’s not a negligible probability that we go into a Maunder Minimum.”

Great! This is still good information.

So what do we have here?

If a lack of sunspots correlated with the last little ice age, and if we now have the lowest sunspot activity in more than 100 years (and still dropping), and if the U.S. and Europe have recently  endured the coldest, snowiest winters on record, and if we have the “not negligible probability” of descending into a Maunder Minimum, mightn’t we come to the conclusion that we’re heading into a little ice age?

Uh, no.

Look out! Here comes the turtle. Here comes the legerdemain.

“The sun’s cycles, however inactive they become, will not save the world from global warming,” the article asserts. “A slight, temporary change in the sun’s activity cannot mitigate many years of suffocating emissions, whatever the deniers would have us believe.”

Oh, those nasty deniers.

How did we suddenly move from a Maunder Minimum to global warming?

Because researchers say so. Which researchers? Researchers who crunched their numbers through the UK Met Office’s “sophisticated climate models.”

Forget the facts. Forget what we can see with our very own eyes. Instead, lets bury our heads in our models (computer-generated guesses).

Have these Met Office models been programmed to overestimate the effects of CO2? We don’t know.

Have these Met Office models been programmed to underestimate the effects of solar activity? We don’t know.

Have  these Met Office models been programmed to estimate the effects of well-known ice-age cycles? We don’t know.

Remember that acronym GIGO (Garbage in, garbage out)?

If it looks like garbage, and smells like garbage, and tastes like garbage, well, maybe it’s garbage.

What about Russian astrophysicist Habibullo Abdussamatov’s contention that we’re headed into a little ice age?  No mention of him.

What about British astrophysicist Piers Corbyn’s contention that we’re now headed into a little ice age?  No mention of him.

What about American climatologist Cliff Harris’s contention that we’re now headed into an ice age?  No mention of him.

What about American climate scientist Don Easterbrook’s contention that we’re now headed into an ice age? No mention of him.

I’ll stick to my guns. I think we definitely are headed into another ice age.

59 thoughts on “If it quacks like a duck … it must be a turtle”

  1. Yes and here in the UK we are being bullied by our EU masters into not having decent vacuum cleaners! in order to “save the planet”. Without warning we are told that next month it will be ILLEGAL to make or sell vaccuums over 1600 watts and in 2017 that will reduce to 900. Some dim, vastly overpaid non-job fatcat has failed to realise that a weak cleaner will take longer to use and consume about the same anyway. There’s zero chance that he will know that Co2 is only 0.038% of air and that humans make only 1/20th-ish of that. Still, not much to hoover out of a frozen ice-house anyway is there?

    • Steve

      That’s why most Brits want out the wretched EU political ball and chain [the Fourth Reich], we were tricked into voting for the common market in the 70s then they just piled on the legislation, Gordon Brown signed away GB as sovereign state in 2009 by signing the EU treaty [High Treason according to common law]. Our spineless wet behind the ears politicians are going along with the grand world plan and nothing seems to be stopping them!

      And now to Tom for the Weather!

    • I began working several months out of the year in the UK in 1997. I remember seeing the busy Dyson warehouse I passed on the train everyday and I bought an early model Dyson for the flat. Best vacuum I ever used. I now have one in my house here in the states too. I hope the all knowing EU saviours don’t manage to muck up that wonderful company.

      • He can manage until 2017 – at that point all Dysons are toast.

        Personally I forsee a nice business in higher watt motors to “upgrade” your vacuum – hot rod vacuum cleaners.

        • Already happens with Volvo car engines, you can have an approved ‘dealer installed software upgrade’.

    • You Brits have your elected officials screaming over vacuum cleaners while we Yanks may have it even worse. Our politicians are into everything from toilets to light blubs. We even have a law as to how much water can be used in the toilet. Now we have to flush 2 or 3 times or go to Canada and buy a decent toilet ! These new twisty sorry excuses for a light blub are worthless, might as well use a candle to read by. The sad part of it is, we both did this to ourselves by voting for these crooks !

  2. Damned right! No doubt that we are heading for another ice age as we speak.
    Don’t ever even look at those idiots from Newsweek. They are controlled by the far left – sort of bought and paid for, as usual. All they ever do is lie thru their dirty yellow teeth and spread more
    diseased-ridden misinformation.

  3. Here in the UK, Autumn has arrived about a month earlier than the norm. with early frosts in the north.
    Canada and nothern US have had a grim summer which is starting to show in wheat yeilds.
    Perhaps Habibullo will be right, it’s certainly looking that way.
    I think in the next years we’re are going to see the beginning of some very tough times,but I hope not!!

  4. What is laughable about this global warming/ climate change nonsense is: in spite of continual declining evidence, the IPCC is more sure than ever that man is causing all this change. Less evidence, more certainity. Only at the IPCC can this contradiction prevail.

    PhD’s – grazing at the trough of limitless grant money if only they can show man is to blame for climate change – have no reason to come to any other conclusion. GW is a self-fulfilling prophecy when it comes to grants. Take away the billions in grants and this scam will end.

    • And the NOAA mysteriously findsna way to make every the the current warmest year ever even as the ice is growing. Want to place a bet that NAOO will declare 2014 the warmest year ever? They already claim May-July are warmest.

  5. Didn’t you see ‘Day after Tomorrow’? The global warming caused a flash ice age that knocked helicopters out of the sky and froze NY (after flooding it). The new ice age will be caused by global warming…

    • Except for the fact that all AGW “theory” is wrong from beginning to end, it’s based on flawed hypotheses and limited data- when it was formulated back in the 1980’s and 90’s.
      Therefore it cannot explain any climate change either *abrupt* or not.
      In summary, AGW is a fallacy, just that, created by politicians working *as if* they were scientists, but they’re not.

    • Which is exactly why the Leftist Media has been given the green light to make fun of Conservatives sadly.

      Movies like that gave Conservatives a bad name and further reenforced the belief that all Conservatives are uneducated redneck racists who love to drive gas guzzling SUV’s.

      It ruined a huge generation of people giving them false views.

      • AGW is another lever to open up the treasury. Wide open treasury enables many wild-assed experiments.

  6. I think prediction is a risky business venture.

    97% of the climate scientists of the 60’s and 70’s agreed we were on the threshold of a coming ice age.

    Within 10 years they agreed we were on the verge of catastrophic global warming.

    Cocksureness and risky ventures almost always lead to spin doctoring to save face.

    OK – I made up the 97% figure but it was an accepted position on global cooling and an impending ice age.

    My money is on an end in belief in manmade global warming caused by CO2 and probably a near future of Maunder minimum like times.

    But we do have an impact on local climate changes through land transformations, water flows and cycles and the Urban Heat Island.

    Let’s not fall into the same trap the egotistical alarmists did – let’s not make predictions of extremes.

    I don’t think many alive today are going to see New York concerned about advancing glaciers.

    It won’t be due to CO2 either but possibly simply a matter of time.

    After all we only have the past records of glaciation to go on – who knows if the root causes of this cycle remains in play.

    After all our solar system is also moving through the galaxy and external “forcings” could be changing as well.

    Hell I don’t know – BUT I am proud I was able to work the AGW word “forcing” into a sentence that had nothing to do with globull wurming nonsense !!

    • Fair point Rosco. Looking at historical records though, I’d say we’re returning to the wild meandering jet-stream pattern which causes the circum-polar front to be longer and therefore permit increased heat exchange between the warming tropics and cooling poles.
      Sir George Simpson of UK Met Office often wondered how ice reached so far S during the last glaciation but was not evenly distributed around that latitude. Siberia was largely ice-free for much of the last glaciation (some reckon).
      What we’ve seen this past year over N America is a stuck pattern of the circum-polar vortex which has significantly altered the climate of that continent while global temps have remained moderately normal.
      Prediction is fairly useless with climate but we’d do well to be developing oats, rye and root crops like swedes to replace corn and wheat should the climate cool abruptly as it did around A.D.1350.

    • I think you will find that it’s 97 Climate Alchemists who signed up to the original AGW IPCC ponzy scheme, that Obama and the rest of the Green terrorists uses to claim the science is settled.
      There are about 1500 climatologists and meteorologist in the field, the majority don’t accept that the science is settled, except when their grants are at risk.
      I have a suspicion that the White House press office added % to the 97 as it sounded better. The rest of the academic AGW criminals have adopted the term 97% and keep on shouting the lie.

    • 97%? Yep, here’s how they did it!

      The original basis for the 97 % ‘scientists concur’ claim was Margaret Zimmerman’s paper. She sent some heavily loaded questions to 10,257 earth scientists. 3,146 thought it was important enough to reply, the rest chucked it in the bin.

      For the question “Do you think human activity is a significant contributing factor in changing mean global temperatures?”, she excluded all but 77 of the responses. Of those 75 answered Yes, hence her 97 % assertion, whereas it is actually 2.4 %

  7. When food shortage begins, the public will DEMAND an explanation for the epic failure of prediction models, and a new phrase will be coined and tied to some C02-caused-atmospheric-imbalance with which every day consumers can be blamed for (and taxed). Get ready for it because it WILL happen.

    And yes, “The Day After Tomorrow” will be referenced. It happened in a movie, so people will buy into the lie easily.

    • When mini ice age food shortages begins probably after a major volcanic episode, the first things to go won’t be food, that will be the excuse. It will be to cover up the AGW ponzy scheme, and protect the political great and the good. Censorship will be imposed on all media outlets, to avoid panic and for the pepole to be advise of the truth. One of the biggest events on the Dalton minimum wasn’t the famines but the French revolution. “Let them eat cake” came from that period as the cause was that the Wheat harvests had failed in France, people with no food to eat, and nothing to loose, revolt violently.

  8. Looks to me that we are about in the middle of the solar 208 year cycle. If so, we are heading toward the 100 years of cooling which bottomed with the last little ice age. 1750 was the top, 1850 the bottom, 1950 would be near the top again. By 2100 we should be at the bottom of the cycle again.

    • One important difference with respect to 400 years ago is that the insolation of the NH is lower now.
      It took 300 years + a solar grand maximum to bring us back to the levels of temperatures of the medieval warm period, which are far from the hottest of the Holocene.
      Solar grand maximums seem to be less frequent and more intense than grand minimums
      If another grand minimum occurs now, like the Maunder 400 years ago, I have little doubt that it’ll bring the end of the present interglacial.

  9. If we have the 4th hottest July combined and the 10th hottest July land surface temperatures, would that not indicate the earth is COOLING???
    From NOAA –
    The combined average temperature over global land and ocean surfaces for July 2014 was the fourth highest on record for July, at 0.64°C (1.15°F) above the 20th century average of 15.8°C (60.4°F).

    The global land surface temperature was 0.74°C (1.33°F) above the 20th century average of 14.3°C (57.8°F), marking the 10th warmest July on record.

    • What if instead of going to NOAA (which is one of the most obvious / openly propagandists of the AGW scheme) we go to the raw RSS data and see what is really happening,
      The trend expressed in the RSS data is backed up by the cooling trend at the poles, the low frequency of El Nino’s in recent years, etc.
      The early XXI was much warmer than now and the trend is downward.
      In addition, we’re at solar maximum now. Imagine how much more evident will be the cooling trend after and inclusive 2015.
      But, of course, you’re entitled to “believe” whatever you want.
      AGW has become a kind of cult or “religion” in recent years, nothing more than that. Nothing to do with science or the observed facts.

  10. No Worries. In a few short years, it’s going to be so cold , widespread, and disastrous, no one will have time for Magazines. Or the drek that issues forth from IPCC. What I’m waiting for, is for the mantra to switch from AGW to global freezing, de icing taxes, snow removal credits and ice buildup fines.

  11. Even more clever. The revenue from the current anti carbon schema and tax and fee structure is going to skyrocket, as a massive amount of fossil fuel will be needed to stay warm.

  12. Robert, The list goes on, David Archibald, John Casey, and how about the over 300 other people who study the sun – climate connection? If you can’t explain the pause, then you don’t know the cause. Until they know the cause, and we all know it’s the sun. Even the most trusted book called, The Old Farmers Almanac book knows it the sun. That is how they are able to forecast the weather seasons with an 80% accuracy using the sunspot count. And that is how the IPPC got it all wrong with the climate model data. Because they did not include the sun. Don’t they have any knowledge about the sun? Maybe not, and that is why they left it out and did not even consider the sun as part of the warming trend that we were on 16 years ago.

  13. Coming hot on the heels of the EU is the UN and once we have the human induced energy/food crisis the UN will ne given total control as our leaders are kockying for its roles right now.
    Disaster ensues.

  14. It has become more obvious to me that they purposely try to keep the focus away from cooling so that millions can be caught off-guard? Or is it the american way of speaking perhaps? ” honey where is the milk?”……”it’s is the double-door globalwarming as always in the kitchen”

  15. Interesting how each successive warm period during the recent ten thousand years was cooler than its predecessor.
    If we are now to experience a cooling world the present warm period would have been the shortest in this sequence, something I do not understand.
    Co2 levels are a red herring, early measurements from previous centuries, show a much higher level of concentration, modern historic records are fabricated.

  16. I’m still waiting for any hard scientific evidence proving that human-caused CO2 is causing the planet to warm. Most of planet’s CO2 comes from natural sources — the oceans, decaying plants and animal matter, and volcanism.

    Despite their assertions, Warmist Scientists can’t differentiate the warming caused by natural CO2 sources from warming alleged to be generated by man-made CO2 emissions.

    The sun and oceans are the planet’s primary climate drivers. CO2’s role, if any, is so small as to be mere background noise.

  17. The weather here in NJ is still too hot for me.It may be fine for the illegal aliens,but I can’t afford all this Powerade after my workouts.Bring on the Ice Age.

    Newsweek was wrong in 1977 about the climate.Hopefully,they’ll be once again be wrong.

    This will also have the effect of halting all Future Fergusons.

    Stop Sharpton.Bring On The Ice Age.

    • The weather outside is frightful
      But the air conditioning is delightful
      And there is something cold I just ate
      In wish it would Glaciate, Glaciate, Glaciate.

  18. Have these Met Office models been programmed…..

    …. not by programmers!

    The scientists set the parameters so they are to blame for what come out od the sausage machine, not the programmer.

    Garbage IN, factual correct Global Warming stuff out! Don’t you wish you could turn garbage into reality?

    • I read that they know it is erupting but don’t know the strength of the flow – we will know in 24 hours weather the eruption will break through the ice. They also said glacier coated volcanoes tend to erupt more violently due to the ice and with more ash.

  19. Newsweek doesn’t even give you enough pages to line bird cages, anymore. That’s the only thing it has been good for for a couple of decades. It and Time magazine reach a ridiculously small audience who already believe the propaganda they spew. You wouldn’t convince them of the truth if it snowed all summer across the South. They are not worth the time spent reading them.

  20. Hey guys,

    Forget “The Day After Tomorrow”, in Japan a popular anime series *right now* actually deals with a ice-age scenario for the sci-fi story!! It’s called: “Gargantia on the Verdurous Planet”.

    I found this clip from it which brilliant shows what could happen if humanity would be faced with an ice age: (Note: Starts at 3:00min into it)

    Here’s my summary of it:

    – The earth is about to enter a catastrophic climate change as the interglacial period is ending and the 5th ice age is about to begin due to abnormal solar activity (the sun goes into a dangerous and abnormal hibernation phase).

    – With human extinction as a realistic possibility, humanity asks the question “How to survive this apocalyptic situation?” and one of the answers is to “Develop for outer space and off world migration”, another is “to technological augment the humans to survive the oncoming ice age.”

    – With “migration to another star system” as the answer, a new and more important question arises afterwords: “What form should humanity take to the starts?”. The question comes up because the trek to another star system would be extremely long, very dangerous and higher probably of dying – can humanity risk itself on this idea? With this in mind, two branches of humanity purpose to completely different answers to the problem:

    – 1) [Purists]
    The human form is sufficient, with heavy investment of research, this research will crystallize into building more advanced and safer ships that will carry us to the stars. This group essentially wants to keep humans as is.

    – 2) [Transhumanists]
    The human form is insufficient, therefore heavy nano-augmentation, genetic engineering and mechanical augmentation of the human form will result in us (humans) becoming THE SHIPS that will carry us to the stars. This group essentially wants everyone to turn into organisms that can stand the harshness of space environment.

    – So the story goes, the earth continues to cool and human habitable land decreases rapidly so these ideas come into practice.

    – The purists form the ‘Continental Union’ (which is assumed Canada+Mexico+USA) which build the space elevator and start working on ‘immigration/generation ships’.

    – The transhumanists get private funding from major corporations and some independent countries to create the ‘Free Science Citadel’ which is essentially an independent country on a remote island with no moral, legal or religious laws governing it and they’re rushing to augment humanity to survive the oncoming harsh client. Note: The transhumanist call themselves the “Evolvers”.

    – As time goes on, the transhumanist create humans to look like sea creatures, but are fully capable of surviving any environment.

    – The purists are so terrified of this new development that they start a war of extermination with the transhumanists which starts on earth but eventually goes off world into space. The purists call themselves the ‘Galactic Alliance of Humankind’ and escape this solar system but the the evolves (who called themselves now the ‘Hideauze’) follow and this never-ending war is raging in the stars.

    – This video explains this everything I’ve written. If you enjoy it, I highly recommend you watch the anime.

    • It was the quest for adoption to difficult circumstances during the past ice age that left humanity with it’s big brain.

      I won’t deny our global population could drop due to low birth rates (already a problem in the West), mass migrations, conflict over lands, resource, technology and the potential loss of large area’s of agricultural lands but remember that humanity is highly adoptive, spirited and able to make the best of a situation.

      Also realize that dropping sea levels make new lands available to compensate for the ice covered Northern area’s.

      I have no doubt whatsoever that we’re in for a gigantic struggle over many generations but I am convinced we’ll make the right decisions eventually and survive.

      We’re used to create our own niches in life and with all the science and technology available today and the great developments just around the corner we will prosper whatever nature throws at us.

      I say bring it on.

  21. Regarding the post by AJ Virgo:

    Coming hot on the heels of the EU is the UN and once we have the human induced energy/food crisis the UN will ne given total control as our leaders are kockying for its roles right now.
    Disaster ensues.

    I’m going to go out on a limb and predict that when Obama leaves the US presidency (in a shambles) he’s going to become the Secretary-General of the UN. That’s when Satan will enter him and he will become the Antichrist. Well, unless it’s that guy in Turkey. You heard it first here!

    • Most Americans already know electing Obama has been a huge mistake.

      He has created the biggest political opposition movement in decades and it’s only starting.

      In Europe we have numerous initiatives from Schotland to Barcelona and from Venice to Iceland to break the chains of the ruling powers and become independent.

      The EU will collapse as any failed experiment and the UN remains as weak as ever.

      Obama is a hack, a talking suit with absolutely nothing to show for.

      He will be remembered as the President who rather played Golf than leading his country.

      The undermining of the US economy was a process that goes back to the Nixon Era when it was decided to decouple the US dollar from the gold standard.

      The US government was forced to take this action otherwise the USA would have gone bankrupt a long time ago.

      I regard remarks like “Satan” and ” Christ” unfit for a blog that has been initiated to address the AGW doctrine.

      In fact I can’t stand this Medieval hysteria and prefer to study our history and address facts.

      I really hope you get the message.

      No room for Medieval Mumbo Jumbo here.

      I hope our host supports my view.

  22. O.K. The Sun’s activity is ebbing,let’s just blame it on George Bush and then we don’t have to hear about global warming for a while.

  23. Yes, but we have to come up with a new slogan for global cooling. I got it let’s call it climate change.

  24. It’s getting colder every year, on average! Make sure if you go to any library not to turn your head or your eyeballs in the direction of magazine or newspaper stands. They are all diseases and you don’t want to catch theirs.

  25. It’s articles such as this one that help to explain why readership of Newsweak (my spelling) continues to plummet. I think they are the endangered ones here, not our climate!

  26. Two absolute facts that are heinously obscured by the global “warming” distraction:

    1. The deforestation of the planet, especially the tropical rainforests, has actually reduced the amount of of carbon dioxide which can be processed by plants and turned into oxygen for us to breath, simply because there are historically far fewer plants to do the CO2 -> O2 processing. So while CO2 levels are increasing, O2 levels are *decreasing*.

    Increased CO2 levels are also to be blamed on an insane and indoctrinated dependence on the burning of fossil fuels for electrical power and transportation. There are many ways to produce electricity that do not require the burning of fossil fuels, nor wind farms, nor solar panels, nor hydroelectric, nor geothermal, such as “vacuum energy”. Covering up such facts extends the life of the monstrous fossil fuel cartel at the expense of all life. The global warming dogma is also designed to delusionally force a “carbon tax” on every man woman and child whether they burn carbon or not, to further fill the coffers of the fossil fuel parasites. (They should tax all the trees, as well, by that logic. No, instead they cut them down. Competition you know.)

    2. “Chem-trails” are composed of rigorously researched aerosols that were developed over the course of 70 years of research to create “climate modification” in the form of global *cooling*. This program was designed to cool the planet even more when an ice age hits, killing lots more people due to cold and starvation. Chem-trails are a part of the planetary depopulation agenda which has been planned for the world, for many decades, started by Henry Kissinger and the so-called “elites”. There are at least 6.5 billion reasons why this is a bad idea, in addition to all the trillions of innocent lives in Nature which would suffer.

  27. At least it gives us something to argue over while the pedophiles keep running the day care centers and the safe crackers run the security companies at the banks and the psychopaths run the mental health systems and the used car salesmen hold the highest offices.

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