Scientist who predicted 500K coronavirus deaths in UK adjusts figure to 20K or fewer

Only 20,000 or fewer versus a half million? That’s a major ‘adjustment’.

“Scientist and Imperial College author Neil Ferguson said Wednesday the coronavirus death toll is unlikely to exceed 20,000 and could be much lower (emphasis added) if lockdown measures continue, according to New Scientist. He added that he is “reasonably confident” that Britain’s health system can handle the burden of treating coronavirus patients.”

Thanks to Stephen Bird for this link

16 thoughts on “Scientist who predicted 500K coronavirus deaths in UK adjusts figure to 20K or fewer”

  1. there’s about 40,000 that die in the usa yearly from the flu alone and over 40 million affected in the usa yearly.

    this virus has spread throughout the world and currently only 250,000 have been affected. even if that multiplies by 10; the world has currently sent itself into a recession or depression over what seems to be less of a threat than the normal flu season.

    rational thought has left the planet.

  2. This man has ‘form’ when it comes to ‘fear porn modelling’.

    I say this again: he has a track record of hype and exaggeration and governments should not value his services in future.

  3. I cannot believe this “crisis” as reported is real. I don’t wish to sound callous but the world’s governments have declared war on their populations, economies and sanity over what to me appears to be over hyped misinformation.

    Obviously this “crisis” is only 3 months or so old but it is now worldwide thanks to modern travel.

    It is difficult to get accurate figures obviously but apparently there are currently less than 600,000 COVID19 cases.

    There are ~7.8 billion people in the world.

    Show me the one infected person in 13,000 and tell me why this is so terrifying ?

    The figures appear to be consistent across countries – for example Australia has ~3180 cases, 13 deaths for a current mortality rate of less than 0.5% and an infection rate of one in 8,000.

    Remember that Sydney, a city of ~5.3 million, had severe air pollution from fires for months before COVID19 arrived and many people would have suffered diminished respiratory capacity due to this but still the affects of COVID19 are small.

    Again the risk factor is still incredibly low.

    A 100 fold increase in the number of deaths from COVID19 in Australia will see it kill nearly as many as die annually in road collisions but I don’t see any social distancing rules or bans for motor vehicles.

    COVID19 spread worldwide rapidly not because of any characteristics of the virus itself but because of travel capabilities today. Having hit pandemic levels really quickly because of air travel the virus itself seems quite benign in terms of infectivity and danger – apologies to those who have died and their families but so far it isn’t the plague, smallpox or the H1N1 influenza.

    I’m not sure what is going on but I can say 2 things –

    1. Thank God there weren’t today’s travel capabilities when the H1N1 Spanish flu pandemic took off – it probably would have been much worse.

    2. At least climate catastrophism is out of the news cycle. Good luck with getting destroyed western economies to donate billions to climate gravy trains especially when China will be a major beneficiary of funding !

  4. 20000 deaths would be lower than the July1969 to end of 1970 pandemic which killed 30000 in the U.K and 2 to 4 million world wide

  5. Another case of computer models not being very accurate and built from many assumptions and biases. Models of ignorance!
    Humm, just like climate models.

  6. You won’t KNOW until it is TOO LATE !!

    Look at how many YOUNG Italian Doctors have died of Covid-19 !!
    There is NO VACCINE for Covid-19.
    I’m vaccinated for flu every Autumn !
    Look at Italy, Spain and New York !!


  7. I think the key point here is the statement that lockdown must continue as he is saying that is bringing the numbers down. What would concern the majority is if the economy is being trashed without good reason.

  8. That over hot alarmist model has just caught a cold! After all Corvid-19 is a new cold version in the same family of viruses as Flu. Humans have survived the flu since we came out of the trees 200,000 year ago.
    It’s a pity the AGW Alarmist hockey stick models don’t catch a cold in the same way, but then again perhaps they have it called a Grand Solar Minimum.
    But COVID-19 is a real-time model of the economic damage which will affect the Western Economies by NetZero from 2040 when 85% of the 24/7/365 energy generation is removed from service and replaced which expensive unreliables, dependent on the weather or the sun shining, while the BRICs power onwards towards parity of generating cheap abundant 24/7/365 power to drive their economies.

    The example of removing from service is the Austrailian Government blowing up its coal power plants, while China and India build a thousdand more.

  9. Fraud, lies and delusion will kill far more than any virus. If we livd in a just world the panic mongers would face justice but we don’t so they won’t.

  10. It’s just another scandal – like the other 2 scandals before this one.
    If there were a nuclear war and radiation in the sky right now – THAT would be a National Emergency.
    If there is a magnetic reversal – that would be a National Emergency.
    There is no reason for any National Emergency with this one.
    People would be nuts if they think this is bad. Just wait until we get a magnetic reversal.

  11. Do you believe everything the government tells you? I hope not.
    I don’t believe ANYTHING the government tells me.

  12. The number given by Ferguson on Friday was 5700!!!!! That is less than a bad flu year. The excellent Peter Hitchens points out that it can’t be the banning of movement as it wouldn’t take effect that quickly. In his article today he says that when he questioned the panic last week he received a lot of abuse but very little actual factual argument against his view. Remind you of anything else where if you challenge perceived wisdom you just get abuse not facts?

    The other concern he highlights is the recording of deaths as they are putting the virus down for anyone who tests positive for it even if it didn’t kill them. A good reason for not trusting official figures. This is the same as when they try to claim pollution as a cause of death by just adding up respiratory deaths. I know from experience that pneumonia is often the final thing to kill a sick person. My mother died from it but did have myloid leukaemia and it was terminal but the top line on the death certificate read pneumonia.

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