Strong El Niño developing in the Pacific Ocean – Video

Raises the prospect that its heavy rains could end California’s historic drought.
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“There is a greater than 90 percent chance that El Niño will continue through the winter of 2015-16, and around an 80 percent chance it will last into early spring 2016,” said the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in a statement earlier this week.

During previous strong El Niño events, California has seen a 150 percent to 200 percent increase in rainfall, said Mike Halpert of NOAA.

The record-breaking El Niño of1997-1998 is estimated to have caused losses in the billions in the U.S. alone.

During just one week in January, 1998, the eastern U.S. and eastern Canada saw flooding rains from the lower Mississippi valley through the southeast and into the northeast, accompanied by several tornadoes, and a severe ice storm in parts of the northeast/New England and into Canada, says NOAA.

“The severe ice storm mainly affected upstate New York, northern New Hampshire and Vermont, much of Maine, and southeast Canada. Some locations received over 3 inches of rain (in the form
of freezing rain).”




Three million Canadian utility customers lost power as a result of the storm, while more than 500,000 customers in the northeast U.S. lost power. In Maine, four out of five residents lost electrical service, and nearly 3 million feet of power lines were destroyed. Overall damages were well over $2 billion for Canada and over $300 million for the U.S.

All this from just one of the many storms triggered by the El Niño of 1997-1998.

http://www.csmonitor.com/Science/2015/0711/Could-El-Nino-end-California-s-drought-video

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.html

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.html


22 thoughts on “Strong El Niño developing in the Pacific Ocean – Video”

  1. Knowing that NOAA has been fudging global temperature data makes me a little skeptical of their predictions, especially the 80 and 90 percent chances of this El Niño lasting into early spring. If it does, however, that could insure a good snowpack in the Sierras. It could also mean a very snowy winter for a lot of people elsewhere in the western US. In any case, you can be sure that the alarmists will try to play it up as the biggest, hottest El Niño ever.

  2. 1997-98 saw very high summer temps in Pac NW, and heavy flooding rains in NCAL. Not sure they want that. Not sure we do either as those who deny natural climate will point to this as a sign that humans will be the cause.

  3. Ya gotta love it don’tcha ?

    Currently everyone in Californian is bleating about the drought.

    Last time the drought broke “The record-breaking El Niño of1997-1998 is estimated to have caused losses in the billions in the U.S. alone.”

    So the choice seems to be – no water or too much – AND – it’s all YOUR fault !

    So to my way of thinking California is basically not suited to permanent human settlement.

    From what I read it is either too hot and dry or flooding.

    I say get outa there while you can – or accept the weather you get when you choose to live in an area.

    And I still don’t get the link between CO2 and El-Nino.

    Radiation from 0.04% o the atmosphere – even 2.04% if you factor in water vapour – does not heat the much higher mass of the oceans – the reverse is true.

    Look at any satellite temperature graph for the period 1997 to today and you see that the El-Nino of 1997/98 released significant heat to the atmosphere and that “heat” has escaped to space since then – any satellite temperature graph!

    I cannot see how any El-Nino heat released to the atmosphere and hence to space over the next few years is going to save the CO2 driven “enhanced greenhouse” theory given what happened after 1998.

    • It doesn’t have to affect anything “down the road.” It only has to start to affect temperatures between now and the “road to Paris,” and what happens won’t matter, especially if, with the Pope’s help, they sell the evil deal destined to lock billions into poverty and early death – decarbonizing. There are too many that see “the holy grail” of decarbonizing as the means to immediate wealth and with no concern to what happens to those in poverty. They all think the same way – “After I get my piece of the action, we can start to worry about those other people, but ME FIRST.”

  4. This El Nino will occur under different circumstances than during the 80’s/90’s when solar output was at record highs. Intensely interesting for us here.

  5. Typically after an El Niño event there is a La Niña event. The alarmists and alarmists will use this Niño to hype up the global warming hysteria and temperatures might even reach 1998 levels. What they are missing however is this, all that heat energy is going to leave the ocean and power these storms worldwide. So what goes up must also come down and with the drop in solar activity I think the winter of 2017-2018 will be quite severe. Temperatures could be as much as 4C lower than what is going to happen this winter. People should enjoy this El Niño because after its done we fall off a cliff.

  6. The MEI index for May/June is up to 2.06. See http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/table.html
    This does look like it will be quite a strong El Nino. It should strengthen more yet in June/July given the cyclones and hurricanes that have recently occurred in the Coral sea and Philippines, China etc. But it may not produce the same weather patterns as the 1997/98 El Nino because the jet streams are now very different to what they were like back then.

  7. With weakening and shifting poles added to a weakening sun and solar winds things are going to take a sudden turn for the worst very soon.

    Based on the writings of people much better educated and informed than I, the shift may happen on night as we sleep. We wake up to a long hard snow storm of butt kicking cold that hangs on.

    What ever happens it’s going to happen soon and be very hard to live through.

    Remember we are in the right time and cycle for the 11,500 ice age to begin raising it’s ugly head. That one lasts much longer than 30 to 50 years. Think hundreds or even thousands.

    That is the one I’m hoping we miss in my lifetime.

  8. Tropical storms forming off the western Mexican coast are able to move further north and east due to El Nino as water temperatures off California are warming up. We just had a tropical storm dump record amounts of water into southern California in July. A real rarity. August and September should be interesting as its the height of the hurricane season in the eastern pacific. Hopefully this winter will be a banner year for rain in California, as we need it badly despite the potential for disastrous floods.

  9. the ENSO widget @ WUWT just tipped over the+1.5
    when Aus got the reverse version the -1.5 we had floods all over aus.. and that tornado off qld.
    PLENTY of warning to get the act together!
    if ANY local govt state govt etc has NOT already dredged n tidied up the exposed waterways and drains etc..they should be open for legal action for negligence..and smart rural folks should also be preparing for flooding, make sandbags now, try and sort out off ground storage for haybales etc etc
    and from this I know Aus is going to be lucky to get much more rain this winter:-( not good for those already semidroughted up nth

  10. I live in the lower foothills to the Sierra Nevada Mountains, about 30 miles north of Fresno, California. We desperately need rain this coming winter, but more to the point, we need a large snow pack in the mountains. No rain, no snow, no water in the reservoirs and for the crops that California grows and ships all over the U.S.

    • Same here in the Puget Sound area. We lost all of our snowpack early on. The ski hills couldn’t open for most of the winter. We’re definitely in drought up here as well. It’s spooky.

  11. El nino will likely kick the global avg temps up a bit and also will give the bearded bicyclists something to get their teeth into, as they’ve been desperately waiting for a wee upturn in temps the last 20 years.

  12. that’s kind of a bad analog year. This winter we will likely see extreme snowfalls and some very cold temperatures – since it’s much colder now than it was back in 1997/98. So convert that rain we had in 1998 to snow this winter – and you get the picture of how much record breaking snowfall we might get. It’s a whole lot different now than it was back then – totally different. We’re in the cold phase now with much lower solar activity – which brings with it large north to south swings in the polar jet stream (and very cold temps) – so expect record breaking snowfall this winter in many areas. Could be similar to 09/10 except more snowfall.

  13. How do you factor in the current position of the jet stream over North America vs. the building El Niño?

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