Strongest El Niño since 1997  may trigger soaking winter storms

The trend is significantly increasing the chances that storms will drench California this winter, according to a new report released by federal scientists. They say conditions are lining up in ways not seen since the winter of 1997-98, when downpours filled reservoirs and sent rivers raging during the last major El Niño.

The chances are now “greater than 90 percent” that El Niño conditions that began in March will remain through this winter, according to the monthly El Niño report from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Thanks to Marcus Muraca for this link

“It is interesting to note the warm spots along the west coasts of Canadian and Northern USA, and even a line near Alaska,” says Marcus. “I wonder how much of the ocean warming is from the volcano off the US west coast. It is very possible that the circular line near Alaska could be from a volcano since it seems to start from the volcanic Aleutian island chain.”

“Of course, they make claims of  ‘could be one of the strongest on record’, but like always, the “Keyword” is ‘Could’.”

35 thoughts on “Strongest El Niño since 1997  may trigger soaking winter storms

    • Best video I’ve looked at all year. Here is someone with credentials and experience saying what actual does alter climate rather than some academic clutching a computer modelled version of reality.

      • I completely agree with the above two gentlemen. This video needs to be viewed. Especially by children and young adults who have unfortunately been school fed and pummeled over the head with repeated viewings of ‘An Inconvenient Truth.’

    • yeah and did the govt/local mobs get off their butts n grade clear n scrape all the dried out waterways?
      to allow floding incoming to go into reservoirs..
      of course the EPS screwup means the rivers a lake before Mead and Mead reservoir are all going to be contaminated badly soon, so its going to take a LOT of floodwaters to flush it/dilute to safer levels for man or fishies.

  1. As a computer specialist including graphics design, I do not trust anything that comes from NASA, NOAA, the U.S Government or any College University in the State of Colorado !

    It is so easy to take a picture (Satellite, High Altitude Cameras) and edit (Change) the graphics to show anything you want to, including the warming of ocean temperatures !

    So NASA and NOAA satellite photos are “not” to be trusted anymore, not as long as King Obama sits on the throne !!

    That said, I am hoping that a Strong El Nino is building in the Eastern Pacific, lord knows that it has been 17 years of virtually nothing from the Pacific Ocean (1997-1998) in El Nino’s !!!

    Again, the biggest “nothing” to global warming is the lack of any warming in the Pacific (Again ” no” El Nino in “17” years and counting!), no major Atlantic hurricanes in the last 10 years (Longest period on record!) and how the global liers have found so many idiots to believe them !

    The Eastern Pacific Ocean “should” be in “Nonstop” El Nino cycles, the Atlantic Ocean “should” be producing “multiple” Major-Hurricanes which would be devastating the Atlantic and Gulf coast’s, yet NOTHING !

    THAT’S WHY THEY CHANGED THE NAME FROM GLOBAL WARMING TO “CLIMATE” CHANGE (Notice that Planet “Earth” has “Four” (That’s the number “4”) climate changes “every” year, it’s called “Winter” – “Spring” – “Summer” and “Fall” !!)

    So… Come on El Nino because a cold Pacific “leads” to “DROUGHTS”, jusk ask us in California, except of course for Governor Moon-Beam, he spends most of his time searching for “water” on the Moon…

    Rick – Amateur Meteorologist
    Southern California

    • On the other hand you could be in one of those 25 to 100 year droughts that show up in the paleontological record. Drought is as normal a condition for California as are wet periods. The latter half of the 20th century was a sweet spot for California as so much of our population moved there. The historic record shows early settlers had a hell of a time with weather extremes as compared to now.

    • Hi from Brisbane,
      We were threatened with an El Nino in June 2014………still waiting for that one not to mention the threatened El Nino of 2013.

      In January 2015 we were threatened with an El Nino of extraordinary ferocity [ the Paris meeting is due late 2015].
      It would now appear that El Nino has gone walk about again & again & again. Just from general weather reporting it would appear that the ‘Mediterranean’ weather system in WA, SA, Victoria is back in full swing with good rainfall / snow etc.

      If ANYBODY happens to see the itinerant El Nino please report it’s whereabouts to the BOM. They are absolutely frantic with worry that it will not appear before the Paris meeting and would appreciate even a small hint of it’s presence.

      No doubt we shall receive another stern El Nino [Nono] warning again towards the end of 2015 and a fresh warning sometime in January / February 2016.

  2. Mark my words…unless the blob cools in the northern Pacific and allows cool water to come closer to Washington/British Columbia California will continue to be dry….its a function that warm water induces ridging in the jet stream so you’d ideally want the warm water away from the coastline…also you didn’t have the Atlantic as cool in 1997 as it is this year so this is going to end up completely different than 1997-98 even though the tropical waters are similar the conditions around those waters are vastly different. its interesting….not enough meteorologists have said these differences

    • but as I suspect that Blob is caused BY underwater volcanic activity its NOT going away..and its been present for far too many mths to BE an abberant patch of warm water
      it would have dissipated well before now.

    • Okay, then by default (Your prognosis not mine), if the North Eastern Pacific Ocean “blob” (Off of California, Northern California, Oregon, Washington, British Columbia and Southern Alaska waters) maintains its presence then El Nino 2014-2015 will have virtually no effect on Oregon South/California this Winter !

      Truthfully I don’t know yet I have great knowledge of El Nino’s !!

      I live in Southern California !

      This “seems” to be an El Nino of epic proportions building, I’ve never seen a “blob” like this (It’s not supposed to be there)!!

      The building of warm Eastern Pacific waters (El Nino)”normally” remain along the Equator (Building off of Peru (Southern Hemisphere) with obvious warmer California Winter ocean water), but this El Nino seems abnormal ( But still long overdue, the Indians called it “many moons”)

      New things happening !

      If you are correct then this El Nino will concentrate itself on British Columbia and Washington, maybe even Alaska, something never seen before in modern times !!!

      Personally I don’t think so, homey don’t play that !

      I’ve seen El Nino 1977-1978, 1982-1983 (Despite what “anyone” says, El Nino 82-83 ruled), 1993-1994, 1997-1998 (Less than 82-83, just ask Malibu!) and 2004-2005 (No El Nino, No La Nina!!!, but the heaviest rainfall in 100 years, Southern California)

      If this “doesn’t” happen 2015-2016, then throw out the books, from now on, before doesn’t matter…

      Rick-Amateur Meteorologist
      Southern California

      • I’m just pointing out that has been the persistent pattern the ridging in the West….Its been that way because of the blob of warm water that’s been present and growing even for the past few years….listen there’s a reason why Alaska was green for large parts of the last ice age look at ice age maps and trace the weather events now happening…. It all makes sense now and I can see it….vulcanism triggers ocean warmth and the jet stream is made more meridional by a weakening sun…ridges go up higher and troughs dig deeper there’s a reason Miami had temperatures below freezing and in the past Seminole tribes accounted snow in Jacksonville…. The opposite is true in places like Alaska and Seattle which stayed green…the ridge went up to the Arctic and came crashing down through the priaries and plains bringing the Laurentide Ice Shield… I’m just observing the past its happened before and happening now nothing about this is unprecedented. Actually one can argue from the beginning of time Earth’s temperature has a down linear progression we are just enjoying a spike before another 11000+ years of freezing….This one being slightly colder than the last

  3. “Could” is the difference between religion and science your average fundy or jihadi “knows” things. A science “thinks” something based upon evidence. They are arguing from analogy and simply saying that things “could” be this way or that IF the analogy persists.

  4. As far as I understand it radiation in an atmosphere is due to changes in energy states of molecules with the reduction in a certain energy resulting in emission of a “photon”. The absorption of a photon results in an increase in energy state for the absorbing molecule.

    Energy changes can come about by electrons changing orbit levels, collisions between molecules, and changes in vibrational energy between individual atoms in a molecular bond including bending in more than diatomic molecules and changes in translational energy.

    Apparently diatomic molecules such as Oxygen and Nitrogen are basically not IR absorbing and only slightly likely to emit IR photons.

    The ability to use IR sensitive goggles like military personnel use supports these assertions.

    But climate alarmists never acknowledge that even with all of these methods of accounting for atmospheric radiation there is an “elephant in the room”.

    The mass density of the atmosphere is of the order of one thousandth of the Earth’s surfaces. Water has a mass density of ~1000 kg per cubic metre whilst soils are ~1600 kg per cubic metre.

    Thus energy transfers from molecular activity in the atmosphere are a tiny fraction of the energy transfers in the reverse direction – from the Earth’s surfaces to the atmosphere – due to the mass density difference.

    What does this have to do with El-Nino ?

    Well you can bet your bottom dollar that if the current developing EL-Nino causes a spike in atmospheric temperatures NOOA alarmists are going to be running to the media with “I told you so” stories about the hottest year ever due to CO2 – even though El-Nino is all about releases of energy from the ocean – evaporation being prominent with the increased chance of precipitation that accompanies higher humidity.

    Whether that energy released came primarily from the Sun and/or volcanic activity – both of which are highly likely – NOOA will associate with greenhouse gases trapping IR.

    Never mind the fact that IR does not penetrate the ocean to any depth beyond a few centimetres – the coming “hottest year ever” will be all about greenhouse gases – read CO2 – and just in time for the meeting in Paris.

    • Something in your article reminded me of another article on another subject I’ve been reading about. In an interesting article about magnetic energy being used in a specific way that apparently stimulates electrons which react upon photons and creates ether energy. It has been discovered that as energy is ether energy is extracted from the device it gets colder and colder beyond absolute zero, rather than getting hot, apparently by increasing demand the ether energy can dive into a state of super conductivity as demand increases creating a toroidal effect..

      For those of a more technical mind if interested take a look at these two sites >>> and http://www.searl

      I find the magnetic structure of the earth very interesting. It seems we may be experiencing some similar effects moving us towards cold. The reason I make this statement is that another man created this cold effect using small DC motors to turn a pump motor that provided magnetic stimulation to coils of magnet wire. A couple additional small steps were taken including adding step up transformer’s wired in series.

      The light bulbs he used he didn’t plug in tight. They were loose causing a gap or spark between the surfaces. As the light in the bulbs were measured the temps dived below minus 500 degrees. That’s is lower than absolute zreo.

      Professor Searl noticed as the power was created, the air in the environment became colder too.

      Your comments reminded me of this info. Hope it’s of interest and adds to the conversation.

    • “Well you can bet your bottom dollar that if the current developing EL-Nino causes a spike in atmospheric temperatures NOAA alarmists are going to be running to the media with “I told you so” stories about the hottest year ever due to CO2”

      Rosco, You are Correct !


  5. Let me see if I understand this correctly. The weatherman can’t accurately predict the weather more than four days out (and sometimes even the next day), yet this groups purports to predict the weather this winter? I’ll believe it when I see it. But I’ll have a leg up on you people because I’m going to look out my window.

  6. There was supposed to be an El Nino last year. Even Joe Bastardi predicted one.
    I live here right on the coast. Right outside San Francisco. Its very frustrating to see the clouds 14 or so miles off the coast. You get excited thinking they might roll in and give you some very much needed rain, but there is a high pressure system here in the Bay area. A stupidly persistent won’t go away high pressure system, and so you just watch the clouds and the rain roll up the coast to drop their life giving water somewhere else.

  7. I say bring it! Here in the Puget Sound area we’re bone dry, and that just isn’t cool. Bring the rain and keep it persistent.

  8. Gotta look at the wording, “El Nino conditions” have a 90% chance of extending themselves. That’s not an El Nino, only “El Nino conditions”. The U.S. really doesn’t even need an actual El Nino’ to have El Ninos anymore. It also only needs near normal average highs temperature in desert west to have global warming. (Per your networked weatherman)

  9. Severe ‘food shocks’ more likely due to extreme weather, experts warn…
    “And as these events become more frequent, the imperative for doing something about it becomes even greater.”

    Too bad the so called world leaders are prepping for the wrong climate event. They need to invest in greenhouses and re-allocating water via aqueducts or pipelines to the southern dry states, so that food production can flourish as the world cools.

    Instead, our “Blundering” Leader plans to stop the use of oil, gas, and coal, while planting solar and wind power that will be totally useless with blankets of snow and ice, as witnessed by England a few winters ago. I wonder how many books we will need to burn just to stay warm.

    Meanwhile, the “Boneheads” in California fail to commit to building reservoirs that could save the day should the El Nino event produce heavy rain. With so many droughts over the past 50 years, they have yet to learn how to save for the future!

    Severe ‘food shocks’ more likely due to extreme weather, experts warn

    Extreme weather such as intense storms, droughts and heatwaves will cause more frequent and severe food shortages as the global climate and food supply systems change, British and American experts warned on Friday.
    The pressure on the world’s food supplies is so great, and the increase in extreme weather events so rapid, they said, that food shortages on a scale likely to occur once a century under past conditions, may in future hit as often as once every 30 years.
    “The chance of having a weather-related food shock is increasing, and the size of that shock is also increasing,” said Tim Benton, a professor of population ecology at Leeds University who presented a report commissioned by the British government.
    “And as these events become more frequent, the imperative for doing something about it becomes even greater.”
    The report, prepared by the UK-US Taskforce on Extreme Weather and Global Food System Resilience, also warned that knee-jerk national responses to production drops, such as the imposition of export or import bans on certain foods or crops, risk exacerbating a problem and fuelling spikes in food prices.
    “If you put the worst case institutional responses together with a worst case production shock, that’s when it starts spiralling out of control,” said Rob Bailey, research director for energy, environment and resources at Britain’s Chatham House think tank, the Royal Institute of International Affairs.
    The experts looked at production of the world’s most important commodity crops — maize, soybean, wheat and rice — and how droughts, floods and storms might impact it in future.
    Since most of the global production of these four crops comes from a small number of countries such as China, the United States and India, extreme weather events in these regions will have the largest impact on global food supplies, they said.
    And while greater interconnectedness reduces countries’ vulnerability to local production shocks, it may also perversely increase vulnerability to large shocks in distant so-called “breadbasket” regions.
    The report recommended drawing up international contingency plans, developing better modelling methods to accurately predict the effects of falls in supply, and identifying international trading ‘pinch points’ to try and minimise them.
    It also said agriculture should do more to adapt to a changing climate and become more resilient in the face of extreme weather, while at the same time increasing productivity to meet an increasing global demand for food.

  10. This el nino event was predicted last year after that super-typhoon hit Asia. It was so strong that it caused significant perturbations in the oceanic currents. Our current weather is simply tied into a larger weather pattern, all of which are influenced by the sun and its cycles.

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