The sun is slumping – And headed even lower

The sun is slumping – And headed even lower

Solar cycle 24 has seen very low solar activity, likely the lowest in 100 years.

Ap Index 1932 – 2017

When you look at the Ap Index from 1932 to 2017, you can see that the Sun’s magnetic output changed in 2004.  Prior to that, there seemed to be a floor of activity at solar minima. In 2009 the Ap Index dropped far below that level, and has now dropped back to the previous floor. This even though Solar minimum is likely still three years away.

F10.7 flux

In a similar manner, the floor of activity for the F10.7 flux was presumed to be 64. However, the F10.7 flux shows that the Sun has declined from solar maximum to the current stage over the last 3½ years.  Even though it is still presumably still three years to minimum, the Sun is now back to that level.

See several more graphs:

Thanks to Dean Koehler, Laurel and Heidii13 for this link

13 thoughts on “The sun is slumping – And headed even lower

  1. Is there any data on upticks in geomagnetic storms; those resulting of late, it seems, from solar wind upticks from what seem to be, now, cyclical earth facing solar equatorial coronal hole solar wind stream upticks; those, increasing the input of solar or radiation energy … this way? Hmm …

  2. The sun may be slumping, looking at those indices … but is what’s arriving from the sun … actually on the increase with these cyclical earth facing and solar equatorial coronal holes … from which increases in solar wind head our way … or result?

  3. The question is how extreme do the solar values get and for how long and how /when do they effect the climate in a more definitive way.

    Hopefully will find out very soon.

    I have laid out my solar criteria for this many times.

    • Salvatore
      I appreciate your comment and have checked out your site.
      I’ve been trying to find the range of UV energy through the typical solar cycle. This portion of the spectrum varies the most, but by how much?
      Bob Hoye

  4. and I’ve been looking at moving to Boston from Houston. Depending on how brutal that minimum is, that could be a life or death decision.

  5. I hope everyone remembers that we aren’t looking at just one cold weather cycle starting to unfold. According to Robert W. Felix’s work, that of John Casey and several others we are in the process of about 6 and maybe more cycles converging including the 11,000 cycle that brings devastating long cold periods.

    Are we going to see them all fail or will we see them converge successfully? These are cycles that are measured and their affects experienced, recorded in the history and lifetimes of our recent ancestors. Why should it be different this time.

    The Cold is coming as it must and it will be right on time as it always is.

    The only possible difference will be that all the science is wrong; the methods of calculating time through tree rings, Ice and radio-graphic isotopes is bogus.

    Science is being proven as we watch these things unfold. This will be historic for science and man.

  6. I have had much amusement the last few yrs watching Nasa keep revising the cycle down and down and down again.
    from what was a very improbable high assumption.
    how low can it go? is the big ask
    while we do NOT want much more drop, it would utterly prove beyond doubt it IS the SUN stupid! to the whacko greentards denying present data.
    most chuckles that they may well have the honour of swapping to the “deniers” labelling 😉
    wonder if they’ll then want themselves jailed hung shot ridiculed etc as has been proposed for we of sceptical mindsets?

  7. Ironically Winter 09/10 in UK was one of the worst in 60 years plus. Nothing to get worried about though, nothing to see here!

  8. Readers should look at the whole article, including the comments.
    But the following is interesting:
    Figure 7: Solar Polar Field Strength 1976 – 2017
    The best predictor of the amplitude of the next solar cycle is the strength of the solar polar magnetic fields at solar minimum. Figure 7, from the Wilcox Solar Observatory, shows that the solar polar magnetic fields at minimum have been weakening with each successive cycle.
    Figure 8: Solar Polar Field Strength aligned on minimum strength at solar maximum
    Solar Cycle 25 started from the blocks looking like it was going to be very weak and fulfil the prophecies of those predicting a Maunder-like experience for the 2020s. Then after a couple of years it caught up with Solar Cycle 24. Looking back over the previous three cycles, the solar polar field strength at this stage, three years before minimum, has been close to the value at minimum. On that assumption, Solar Cycle 25’s amplitude is likely to be two thirds of that of Solar Cycle 24, and thus 60. Further climatic cooling is therefore in store.

    Post Script:
    If global cooling does recommence, its exact starting time will be debated for years.
    “It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” – Yogi Maharaj Mahadev Berra.
    Observations and Conclusions:
    1. Temperature, among other factors, drives atmospheric CO2 much more than CO2 drives temperature. The rate of change dCO2/dt is closely correlated with temperature and thus atmospheric CO2 LAGS temperature by ~9 months in the modern data record
    2. CO2 also lags temperature by ~~800 years in the ice core record, on a longer time scale.
    3. Atmospheric CO2 lags temperature at all measured time scales.
    4. CO2 is the feedstock for carbon-based life on Earth, and Earth’s atmosphere and oceans are clearly CO2-deficient. CO2 abatement and sequestration schemes are nonsense.
    5. Based on the evidence, Earth’s climate is insensitive to increased atmospheric CO2 – there is no global warming crisis.
    6. Recent global warming was natural and irregularly cyclical – the next climate phase following the ~20 year pause will probably be global cooling, starting by ~2020 or sooner.
    7. Adaptation is clearly the best approach to deal with the moderate global warming and cooling experienced in recent centuries.
    8. Cool and cold weather kills many more people than warm or hot weather, even in warm climates. There are about 100,000 Excess Winter Deaths every year in the USA and about 10,000 in Canada.
    9. Green energy schemes have needlessly driven up energy costs, reduced electrical grid reliability and contributed to increased winter mortality, which especially targets the elderly and the poor.
    10. Cheap, abundant, reliable energy is the lifeblood of modern society. When politicians fool with energy systems, real people suffer and die. That is the tragic legacy of false global warming alarmism.
    Allan MacRae, P.Eng. Calgary, June 12, 2015

  9. I believe WUWT went way off track in talking past tense and looking back on Solar Cycle 25. I don’t believe we have seen even the first sunspot of SS25 yet. … …re: “Solar Cycle 25 started from the blocks looking like it was going to be very weak and fulfill the prophecies of those predicting a Maunder-like experience”… I believe the Russian scientists are correct in predicting SS25 will be the beginning of a Solar Hibernation.

  10. And as usual,the answer will lie somewhere in between.Hotter than usual,colder than usual,you’ll see bitter winters,and mild winters etc.Coldists are as bad as the warmists,only difference is the coldists don’t fake data yet.The sun already felt hot in March in the Benelux regions, when the angle was still very low.Maybe all those experts need to start looking at the sun differentely and not just go on sunspots.I think in this modern age,an ice age will look very different then in the past,and i don’t see the Thames freeze over any time soon either.But hey what’s humanity gonna do without the doom and gloom every day huh?

    • Yeah, in this modern age mankind believes he is God.
      Who cares if you don’t *see* the Thames freezing over soon, you’re a solipsistic woman.

    • exactly. that the sun is ‘less active’ does not mean less sunshine. What does it mean when one is saying as cold as 60 yrs ago. that wasn’t cold then, no one was frozen.

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