Says it will almost certainly be stronger than the just-ended Solar Cycle 24.
A new research paper has concluded that Solar Cycle 25 could be among the strongest sunspot cycles ever observed, and will almost certainly be stronger than the just-ended Solar Cycle 24 (sunspot number of 116).
The paper, by Scott W. McIntosh, Deputy Director of the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, along with Sandra Chapman, Robert J. Leamon, Ricky Egeland and Nicholas W. Watkins, says SC25 will also most likely be stronger than Solar Cycle 23 (sunspot number of 180).
As the abstract explains:
“The sun exhibits a well-observed modulation in the number of spots on its disk over a period of about 11 years. From the dawn of modern observational astronomy, sunspots have presented a challenge to understanding — their quasi-periodic variation in number, first noted 175 years ago, stimulates community-wide interest to this day. A large number of techniques are able to explain the temporal landmarks, (geometric) shape, and amplitude of sunspot ‘cycles;’ however, forecasting these features accurately in advance remains elusive.
“Recent observationally motivated studies have illustrated a relationship between the sun’s 22-year magnetic cycle and the production of the sunspot cycle landmarks and patterns, but not the amplitude of the sunspot cycle. Using (discrete) Hilbert transforms on more than 270 years of (monthly) sunspot numbers, we robustly identify the so-called ‘termination’ events that mark the end of the previous 11-year sunspot cycle, the enhancement/acceleration of the present cycle, and the end of 22-year magnetic activity cycles. Using these, we extract a relationship between the temporal spacing of terminators and the magnitude of sunspot cycles.
“Given this relationship and our prediction of a terminator event in 2020, we deduce that Sunspot Cycle 25 could have a magnitude that rivals the top few since records began. This outcome would be in stark contrast to the community consensus estimate of Sunspot Cycle 25 magnitude.”
See research paper here:
Overlapping Magnetic Activity Cycles and the Sunspot Number: Forecasting Sunspot Cycle 25 Amplitude
By Scott W. McIntosh, Sandra Chapman, Robert J. Leamon, Ricky Egeland and Nicholas W. Watkins, 14 Oct 2020
Thanks to Ian A Kellman for these links
“How does this affect “global warming, cooling and ice age” if sun plays a major role?” asks Ian. “If there is no Maunder minimum and expected cooling, how do we respond to potential increase of warming when the powers that be see it as anthropogenic, with no regard to the sun . Food for thought.”