The height of hubris and arrogance

Stock up on hatchets and hunting knives to trade for food.

The height of hubris and arrogance

The MsM and warmist alarmists are wrong. It is the height of hubris and arrogance to think humans, in the space of 150 years, can change thermal cycles that are thousands of years long and have existed for millennia. The thermal mass of the land and oceans is enormous. The temperature of deep, still, parts of the ocean have barely risen one degree in 22,000 years, the last glacial max.

My reading of the climate tea leaves says we’re already past the interglacial plateau.

For the last three thousand years, Since 1000 BC, the end of the Minoan Warm Period, the global temperature trend has been -0.5 to -0.7 dgC per 1000 yrs, projecting full glacial of 8 dgC in another 7,000 yrs. Another clue, the obliquity dropped below 23.5 degrees around 1300 AD, the onset of the Wolf Minimum. So the Holocene Interglacial has been over for some time now. We are in the transition zone, expect Finoscandian ice sheets to start in 2000 yrs.

However, the solar output has been declining since 1986 and this accelerated in 2009 with solar cycle 24, the lowest in 200 yrs. Cycle 25 will also be low and the beginning of a Grand Solar Minimum, now named the Eddy Minimum. Expect a Little Ice Age lasting 40 yrs, with some winters extremely cold, some wet cool springs to kill crops, some cold summers. This slide into cold is showing up in German weather station records where the last 30 yrs of winter (DJF) are trending -19 dgC per 1000 yrs, much faster than the slow decline to normal glacials.

I expect in the next ten years one billion will actually starve due to crop failures, and one billion will be eaten by stronger omnivores.

You’ve been warned. Take a sharpie and write your social security number or driver’s license on the inside of your arm, heh.

Stock up on hatchets and hunting knives to trade for food.


The above is from a reader who calls himself (herself?) Sandy, Minister of Future

34 thoughts on “The height of hubris and arrogance”

  1. What if the globo-elite knew this all along? And their plan was to concoct this AGW scam, while planning something more of a “final solution” for 80% of the 10 billion people slated to be here by 2050? What continues to pique my curiosity relative to this… is the never-ending onslaught against Trump. I have decided if the deep-state is successful with an extra-political removal, there’s a lead-pipe cinch we’re headed for a global war. Make your plans accordingly; you won’t find any place to survive in North America.

  2. Sandy is a bit excitable.

    As I’ve pointed out before, we could lose 1/2 the grain crop and nobody need starve. (No humans that is). We feed most of the grain we grow to cattle and other farm animals, and our cars. Just diverting a part of that grain to people keeps us fed.

    Now folks could very well be unhappy. Eating soy tofu and corn gruel is NOT going to make a happy camper. But you don’t starve.

    It’s the cattle that take 10 dry pounds of grain to make one wet pound of beef that lose. They get eaten. That 10 lbs of grain feeds an adult human for 10 days. The 1 pound steak for one meal. So just not eating one steak means you get 10 days of ‘gruel’ rations. Which further means you could lose 90% of that grain production and still have a full stomach on that day when you would normally have a steak.

    Further, hatchets and knives are poor trade goods. Luxury items that trade at very high prices (or barter high) would be spices (like curry spice to make potatoes and gruel taste good), tobacco, tea, and soap.

    The rest of what was said is pretty accurate. About the stage of the solar cycles and heat (or lack of it) in the oceans. Just the leap to Mad Max that’s a bit off.

    • cows and sheep shouldnt be feedlotted on grains pasture fed healtheir meat would be a bonus not a problem
      chicken would rise in price due to their systems..or they could also go back to being pastured and have better lives and become backyard composters n bug catchers as they should be.
      the real poor people around the world wont notice much difference in the lack of food..western nations will have to reduce intake and that could only be a good thing too;-)
      extreme cold would kill more of the 3rd world nations residents due to their housing and lack of fuel for warmth and lack of medical care

  3. Hi Robert. Thanks for posting my alarm on Abrupt Climate Change. I sent the following message to several public forums and a senator to see if anybody is interested. I added … some cold summers, and more frequent and severe storms. The storminess index went from 6.5 to 14 during the LIA.

    I’m a guy. My brief bio …

    Sandy, Minister of Future (aka pearce m. schaudies), born and raised in south Texas, where i did a lot of camping in the Scouts. BsEE 1969 Univ of Texas Austin, major in Computer Design, spent career as
    Reliability Engineer, Predicting and Testing when things will fail. Served on USS Strong DD758, 1965-67. Married 1963, two kids, friendly divorce 1980. While at Motorola created 2 new Hi-Rel jFET’s, helped rewrite MS-750, did the pre-cap visual on power microwave transistors used on Voyagers. Moved to Silicon Valley, lived in SanJose 11yrs. 1992 retired to Bangkok, married a Thai girl in 1996. In 2003 started a website promoting a New Country, morfed into SeaStead, now ArkonVillage floating city. Having fun.

    For those interested, here are links to articles i read in support of my thesis:

  4. It is a slow train wreck, so gradual, food prices up, electricity prices up (not least because of subsidies to green carpetbaggers running ‘renewable energy’ scams). 40,000 extra deaths in UK after this winters cold. It will be worst in towns and cities where restrictions on types of fuel are strict. Those of us in remoter rural locations with land and access to firewood will fare better, provided can keep scavengers away. Already get folk from nearby towns ‘gleaning’ fallen wood from private woodland, very smll scale at moment, but just wait….

  5. i plan on stocking up on some sheepskins… makes good warm winter coats, vests, etc. Waterproof too! I’m going to make me a longish vest, because I like being warm but like to keep my bum covered and arms opefn when I drive and it’s cold. Or just sitting around the house if the heat goes out.

    I can no longer wear them (feet swell) but those UGGS are great (despite the fact that “fashionistas” everywhere hate ’em)! When living in a place where it snows… I accidentally stepped in about 8 inches off slush… no problem!

    (So you Aussies are in luck!! )

  6. While I’ve no doubt we’re on the downward slope to the next ice age thanks to the Milankovitch cycle progression, the predictions of future crop failure and deaths is garbage “journalism” undeserving of being on this website.

    There is no substantiation for these claims, no reference to the increased productivity of agriculture over the past 100 years, no acknowledgment that we already throw out >40% of all food grown due to logistics/spoilage, etc. We are NOT going to lose a billion humans due to starvation and the supposition that another billion will be “eaten by stronger omnivores” is the absolute worst climate change scaremongering I’ve ever seen on either side of the debate.

    • Perhaps you’ve never gone hungry… I have, living in a city 50 years ago. People I lived with turned INTO animals (despite the fact they had been my friends)… each man or woman for themselves.

      I remember a few days in a row when all we had to eat was macaroni, boiled… no sauce, not even any salt. And people were fighting over it! Something you NEVER forget.

      And are you from Germany? I remember a girlfriend who grew up there during WWII who told me that as a girl they were so low on food they ate WORMS. Any take a look at the info coming out of Venezuela. During the last Great Depression some people ate their own babies. Desperate people *do* do desparate things, in my opinion (and experience).

      Yes agriculture has changed, but not necessarily for the better. More huge farms run by machines using lots of chemicals (at least in the US), genetically modified crap killing bees & making weeds go rampant… so while predicting specific numbers… yes I can go alone with your opinion on that, too hard to estimate. But “modern” ag is no panacea. And here (I live in a small town which has much land ag zoned)… most of the farmers grow non-crops like corn for ethanol or animals, and monocrpops which are at risk for being wiped out by bugs or diseases. And most of the people in my area have no idea how to grow their own food if they had to… nor do they have seeds or equipment needed. So.. .with all due respect to your right to your own opinion… I tend not to be as optimistic as you!

    • Agriculture has advanced tremendously over the last 100 years…. and I might add that it will work quite well when the seasons are dependable. The people of 1250AD found out that advances in farming technology were not enough when the seasons became unpredictable, cold and wet. Seeds spoiled and rotted. People went hungry and died. No amount of advance will save all of these billions of people.

      • Your right up to a point, but those 100 hundred years of improvement has relied on improvements in technology and the Energy Civilisation to make that improvement in farming GDP:
        Removal of the Horse/Oxen as a ploughing energy source; replaced by the Diesel Internal combustion engine.
        The technological improvement from Chemistry based on the 1st WW usage of smokeless powders, Nitro Glycerine, and Chorine gas, lead to Nitrogen based fertilisers, as well as to Weed and Insect controllers.
        As important, the just in time transport system able to move out of season produce to the far corners of the world, which uses Hydrocarbons as its energy source
        But most important a benign warm climate since 1945, the latter finished in 2008, and the climate has only just become noticeable as it races downhill into short cool period until 2056.
        This GSM isn’t the end of the Interglacial, but a normal end to an on trend Warm Epoch and the Sun will return to more “Normal” output levels at least for five more 172 year solar climate cycles.
        Our real problem is the Gravitation waves generated by the Sun Trefoil orbit around the Solar System BarryCentre. Those have a profound effect on the Earth`s volcanic plumbing, and the tectonic plates which ride on the magma ocean below us which keeps the world from being like Mars, a cold dead world.

    • Dear HB,
      In 1815 Mt Tambora in Indonesia erupted, 1816 was known as the year without a summer with frost’s in June and July. It is estimated that a third of the population of Europe died from starvation.

      Reports are already coming in on crop losses this year around the globe due to this winter (see this site). Here, in Ireland, farmers are having to import hay to feed cattle and sheep due to the poor condition of the fields and other farmers are struggling to get fields ploughed and crops sown. In some areas winter sown crops such as early potatoes cannot be lifted and may start to rot soon!

      What this means is that initially this may cause some problems this year but if these exceptional winter conditions become the norm then food shortages may occur and prices will start to rise.
      When the general population eventually catch on to the fact that they may have been misled or down right lied to, then the trouble will start.

      Civilisation is held together by a very flimsy ‘glue’, when that starts to fall apart it will get very ugly, very quickly!

  7. social security number?
    You know all this could be avoided just by taking political power way from the wrong people.
    Did you know that the US used to have a govt grain reserve? The immense food & grain multinationals like Cargill, told the govt there was no need cuz they would handle it for us. Giving control of the food supply that feeds our chickens & cattle to the foxes makes me feel so warm & fuzzy.

  8. Quote:
    We are in the transition zone; expect Finoscandian ice sheets to start in 2000 yrs.
    I think he is being overly positive in his time scales, I would have said that we have one more major warm period of 1000 to 1500 years from now. One major geological event which interrupts the overturning current and it could be much sooner than that.
    I would have said learn to farm, 1 Acre feeds 20 people. Most farmers I know have more sharp implements than any criminal drug gang. Most city folk can feed themselves for three weeks at the most, after that they prey on the rest of us outside the cities.

    • That might be the case if things get out of hand.
      Civilization and its technology is fragile and depends on people being able to protect and maintain it.
      Once that is lost it is hard to get it back.

      • I can imagine a world where up in the northern hemisphere most of the survivors are nomadic scavengers living off the husk of what used to be modern civilization, some of the survivors became nomadic herders with sheep and cattle and horses moving where the herd goes. A lucky few have

      • I can imagine a world where up in the northern hemisphere most of the survivors are nomadic scavengers living off the husk of what used to be modern civilization, some of the survivors became nomadic herders with sheep and cattle and horses moving where the herd goes. A lucky few have created small permanent settlements living off short season crops, frost resistant crops and small livestock like chickens, other poultry, pigs and sheep. Down in the Southern Hemisphere permanent settlements are more common but famine is common due to unpredictable weather causing these settlements to raid one another for supplies.

  9. @Schmidt- Obviously you dont read much, heh. Try these wiki excerpts:

    A famine is a widespread scarcity of food, caused by several factors including war, inflation, crop failure, population imbalance, or government policies.Wikipedia

    The Great Famine of 1315–1317  (occasionally dated 1315–1322) was the first of a series of large-scale crises that struck  Europe  early in the fourteenth century. Most of Europe (extending east to Russia and south to Italy) was affected. The famine caused millions of deaths over an extended number of years and marked a clear end to the  period of growth and prosperity  from the eleventh to the thirteenth centuries.

    The Great Famine started with bad weather in spring 1315. Crop failures lasted through 1316 until the summer harvest in 1317, and Europe did not fully recover until 1322. The period was marked by extreme levels of crime, disease, mass death and even  cannibalism  and infanticide. The crisis had consequences for the Church, state, European society, and for future calamities to follow in the fourteenth century.

    @Chief Smith- Yeah, a bit excitable. I had a compulsive attack to warn people, heh. And the other day I calmed down and thought if I was King for a Day what would I command to prepare for this. As a minimum I would explain it in some detail to a mainstream media and have them run some stories on it. Maybe put up some government grain elevators along 35th parallel where it won’t be too cold. Have some cheap government hoodie garments made out of super insulation like aerogel. Stop using corn for ethanol. It is better used as food. Have a crash program to develop plants that can grow in cold wet climates with shorter growing season. And …

    Sandy, Minister of Future

    • This famine took place during the WOLF minimum GSM, after a second GSM affecting AMP event solar cycle, in looking at the time scales; it’s possible that the famine period took place at the end of the GSM causing cycle and during the start of the next even lower energy output cycle, similar to this modern GSM.
      Wolf was the true start of the LIA, destroying the Viking colony in Greenland, and was followed very quickly by Spoorer, Maunder and Dalton as the last GSM cycle of the LIA.
      Sudden Atmospheric Events (SAW):
      1309/10 London Bridge arches damaged by ice during a severe winter. Thames frozen. A possible frost-fair on the Thames in London; which implies a persistent length of sub-zero temperatures at some time this winter (inferred by the statement in some chronicles that ‘sport’ was held on the river). Usual stories about people walking across the Thames. According to contemporary reports “dancing took place around a fire built on the ice and a hare was coursed (chased) on the frozen waterway “.
      (Winter) A cold winter in western Europe / implied for parts of Britain. (Easton, in CHMW/Lamb)
      The Wolf period and the brief years between Wolf and Spoorer experienced a number of SAW events, both hot and cold.

  10. No one really knows exactly what triggers the end of an interglacial. There are numerous probable factors involved, with Milankovitch Cycles and our planet’s obliquity being the principal contenders.
    Some people think we’re already sliding ‘downhill’ into the next glacial spell, while others say it’s not possible to predict it, citing error ranges of centuries, maybe millennia.

    Whether we’re currently witnessing the beginning of a genuine slide into ferociously-cold conditions which will last 90-100 thousand years, or simply the onset of another Dalton-type minimum, is beyond our ability to say.
    But even if the next glacial period is imminent, studies show it will take most of a human lifetime before the average temperatures plummet by the expected 8 deg.C globally. i.e. 50-100 years.

    During those decades, the human population is predicted to peak at around 9 billion and begin a steady decline after 2070.
    In the meantime, if the next glacial period is closing in, it will have long since dawned on just about everyone that all our inane ‘solutions’ for Global Warming were a monumental waste of time and preparations for extreme cold will have commenced.

    Manmade Global Warming is unscientific nonsense and always was. The climatic ‘elephant-in-the-drawing-room’ has always been the periodic episodes of glacial cold that last for many tens of thousands of years.
    That’s what we, as a species, should be most concerned about.

    People talk about our gas and oil lasting decades, and our coal lasting 200-300 years at present rates of use. They say we have enough fissile material (e.g. uranium) to last for centuries. They even say we have enough ‘fertile’ nuclear material (i.e. thorium) to last the whole world a thousand years or more.
    Humanity needs an energy source that will last through a 100,000-year glacial epoch.

    Only things like vast orbiting solar collectors out in the uninterrupted sunshine of space – beaming microwave energy down to ground-based receivers around the clock – or the advent of reliable commercial fusion reactors, will fit the bill.

    Meanwhile, Los Angeles goes about painting the streets white!
    Incredible stupidity.
    It makes you despair for our species.
    If REAL climate change sends what’s left of humanity back to the stone age, or wipes us out completely, it may turn out to be no more than we deserve.

  11. We can lose billions of people. There are no global food reserves! The insane assumption that if crop production drops in some regions of the globe, it can be made up from other regions will prove mankind’s undoing. Ice ages bring great global droughts. A combination of short growing season, cool wet springs and droughts around the world would be disastrous. Russia stopped exporting food in 2010 because of drought. Aquifers around the world are emptying faster than filling. Mega droughts would result in humanity sucking them dry further reducing grain, vegetable and fruit yields. Add another billion people coming online as cooling unfolds, the picture gets more bleak. Fish are already sucked out of the oceans at an unsustainable rate. Loss of farm land from drought and snow would would dramatically impact global crop yield within a few years. If an ice age comes in fast, it will be disasterous and there will be mass death! Just switching global farming patterns and transport will take years and people will die during the switch over. And, let us not forget about war. Will China go hungry while we eat or vice versa? If we manage to feed ourselves will Mexicans and Canadians starve quietly? Extended cooling even if just for 20 years would be disasterous.

  12. Just as a side note, there are many crops that are planted before winter and harvested the next year, whenever the snow melts and things can grow again. Note that SNOW does not deter this mode of farming ( in fact, it can increase yields by increasing moisture ).

    Winter cereals, also called winter grains, fall cereals/grains, autumn-sown grains, etc.) are the biennial cereals which are sown in the autumn. They germinate before the winter comes, may partially grow during mild winters or simply persevere under a sufficiently thick snow cover to continue their life cycle in spring. They are harvested earlier than the spring-sown grains of the same type.

    In general, winter cereals have a much higher yield than spring cereals because they can use snow as moisture for growth.

    Winter forms are known for rye (winter rye/fall rye), wheat (winter wheat/fall wheat), barley (winter barley/fall barley) and triticale (winter triticale).

    Farming is much different from running a Summer Garden.

  13. H.B. Schmidt or JimBob, would either of you know where Earth is with regard to Milankovich Cycle progression? I have heard that Earth’s orbit is still pretty circular and therefore we aren’t yet heading for any kind of ice age for quite a while. The lecturer didn’t mention solar activity, needless to say. If you could please let me know where I can find out more about this, I’d be very grateful.

    • The tipping point for the next glacial advance based on the trend taken on the warmest points of the previous Solar Warm Periods, Minoan, Roman, Medieval, Modern and the next Post Modern Warm period to come which I expect to be on trend, could be between 1000 and 2000 years from now.
      From a solar perspective, this is the hind cast and future prediction of when the next GSM will occur.
      The three Milankovitch Cycles do not cause the initial Glacial Advance, it maintains it, after other events – Reduced Solar output from say a 600 year LIA period and major conpanion Geological events provide the ice now, kicker for it to start.
      But start here:
      This bog may show you were we are in the various cycles:
      There seems to be general agreement that the cause of the Holocene Thermal Maximum is the Earth’s precession cycle. As described in Michael Bender’s book “Paleoclimate,” a part of the Princeton Primers on Climate series:
      “The orientation of Earth’s spin axis has changed over the past 10 Kyr so that northern summers now occur when Earth is farthest from the sun, whereas at 10 Ka [10,000 BP] they occurred when Earth was closest to the sun. Northern summertime insolation reached a maximum at about 10 Ka and has declined to the present, when it is near the minimum.”
      As always do your own research.
      You will also find on many of the Academia sites they all have the rider that AGW is the root of climate change, mainly because the site, the institution which hosts it, and the blogger which wrote it, depends on Government Grants to prove AGW or Human induced climate change.
      There is no government grants being invested in cooling, or what happens when Holocene stops being warm.

    • Precession and obliquity are the long-term control knobs of planetary climate. We are on the downward side of both towards the next ice age, regardless of what GHG climate forcing suggests.

      • In this 2.5 Million year Ice age we are still in, it may be the shortlived Precession phase where the three cycles work together to produce the intergalcial period.
        Perhaps the norm for the world climate is in a partial Glacial Advance, a half and half ice world of 140K years. Where as the Interglacial is the abnormal state of warm for 15K years between the long periods of ice dormancy.

  14. Late to this thread. Been busy. This thread assumes a semi-steady state. However, if some transition condition is passed, a runaway feedback process could start causing a fast brutal transition to an ice age. The wind picks up (storms – exponential ocean stress due to wind velocity), the thermocline rises to the surface of the ocean (really cold water), the atmosphere cools off, more storms and wind, more upwelling, more wind, more upwelling, more wind, …, then instant ice age. Massive storms everywhere, hail the size of cannon balls, massive floods washing away roads, bridges and railroads, aircraft destroyed sitting at airports. Economic collapse. At the end, the air cool and dry with the rivers drying up and no river barge traffic, no food. Apocalypse. A small starving band of ex-military with state of the art weapons coming to your house thinking that you have a can of soup hidden, they turn your house upside down looking for that can of soup, and when they leave they burn your house down around your dead body. This is the dark future I see. Have a nice day.

  15. Up the Whanganui River in NZ is a settlement named Ranana & in 1951, aged 8, I was introduced to a Maori woman of 80, whom I was later informed, had told my mother, that she she still remembered with relish, her first taste of long pig, when she was a young girl. It was in the aftermath of Te Whiti & his people were thrown off their land & left to starve in Parihaka, Taranaki c 1878.

    Long pig: The flesh of a man intended for eating. Derived from ‘puaa oa’, a phrase originating in the Marquesan language to euphemistically refer to cannibalism.

    The phrase first appeared in Fredrick O’Brien’s 1919 travelogue of French Polynesia, “White Shadows in the South Seas”.

  16. @EM Smith. Funny what you can tell about a person by what they write. For example, it’s pretty clear you’re not a farmer. And you’re using Wiki as a reference source, lol, so you’re not a scholar, either.

    Buddy, I AM a farmer. It is April, and we are still feeding hay, not grain, to our cattle…almost 2 months longer than usual. We have used twice the usual supply to get them through this winter — all the hay our our land produced in 2017, the low-protein leftovers from 2016, plus some we had to buy from neighbors. We have NEVER had to feed this much hay, with 40 years of experience behind us.

    Right now, the grass is not growing at the rate it should because it’s still too cold. Consequently, we won’t get enough hay this year to feed through the 2018-19 winter, either…even if it was a “normal” winter, which I am not expecting. That means that we’ll have to sell some of our cows, just like lots of other strapped farmers will do. So, next year, there will be fewer calves from those smaller herds — which will mean higher meat costs for your non-vegan associates.

    You see how this works?

    BTW, we raise cattle because the land is too rocky, hilly, and thin to raise the fantasy soybeans and mild-weather grains you think could be grown instead of livestock. This land cannot be converted to field crops, ever. You couldn’t get a harvester on it with a helicopter.

    The peas and potatoes I should have planted in raised beds 6 weeks ago, still aren’t in the ground — because it is too cold and wet. Every peach, pear, apricot, and nectarine tree we have lost their blossoms to the latest freeze, despite smudge pots heating the air as much as we could. That means no fresh fruit and no fruit to preserve this year for us. And the local fruit orchards were hit hard, too, so prices will be up.

    The “winter wheat” you imagine survive any kind of cold didn’t. The US and Canada winter wheat crop will be SIGNIFICANTLY low this year, and some farmers tell me the crop is probably lost. They can’t tell, because a lot of the fields are still under snow, with more coming this weekend. Right now, the wheat should be a foot tall and starting to form heads.

    Get some real-world experience, bud, before you spout off nonsense. I figure I’ve educated you enough to start the cogs spinning — and if you can read at all, you need to actually READ the info on this website. It is a courtesy and a mercy to another human being to provide survival information, but I’m not willing to waste time with trolls.

    And, for your own sake, tell your AGW handlers you’re going to need a bigger paycheck so you can stock up a little. You know, just in case.

    Or don’t. Your call.

  17. Thank you for the ration of reality Rancherson. In Texas we are seeing a very cool spring. It will be interesting to see if our harvests pan out well.

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