The Lie of Deadly Rising Seas

14 Jan 10 – (Excerpts) – “On Monday, scientists from the Norwegian Polar Institute reported that they’d measured sea temperatures beneath an East Antarctic ice shelf and found no signs of warming whatsoever,” says this article by Marc Sheppard. (italics added)

Cataclysmic sea level rise?

“For years now, alarmists have insisted that Antarctica is thawing thanks to man-made global warming,” says Sheppard. “They warn that such melting of a frozen continent containing 90 percent of all the ice on the planet would inevitably lead to a cataclysmic sea level rise (SLR). Scary stuff, indeed.

Antarctica has cooled since 1979

“But as ICECAP’s Joe D’Aleo observed in 2008 [PDF], the relatively small area of the peninsula offers an extremely poor representative sample, as it juts out well north of the mainland into an area of the South Atlantic well known for its “surface and subsurface active volcanic activity” (Italics added). And in the greater scheme, adds D’Aleo, “the vast continent has actually cooled since 1979.”

This graphic from the project’s website denotes the area of the Fimbul Ice Shelf within the red rectangle. That’s the peninsula on the western border of the Weddell Sea, where a number of ice shelves, most recently the Wilkins Ice Shelf, have collapsed into the ocean, fueling unwarranted alarm about runaway melting and sea level rise.

“Still, carbo-chondriacs blame the “collapse” of ten ice shelves in and around the peninsula on melting of the underside of the ice by global-warming-fueled rising ocean temperatures.”

“So last November, a team from the Norwegian Polar Institute (NPI) set out to investigate the status of just such a locale — the Fimbul Ice Shelf… determine whether ice masses on the shelf are indeed currently on the decline.

No change in almost five years

“Contrary to the warmer, ice-melting temperatures predicted by models, NPI oceanographer and project leader Ole Anders Nøst reported that “the water under the ice shelf is very close to the freezing point.” Furthermore, there seemed to have been no change in almost five years:

“Nøst concluded that “This situation seems to be stable, suggesting that the melting under the ice shelf does not increase.”

“As to the ocean circulation models that incorrectly showed “warm deep water flowing in under the ice shelves,” Nøst admitted that “as this is not observed, the models are most likely wrong and should be improved.”

Continued glacial and ice shelf advancement

“In contrast to model forecasts, Antarctic ice shelf collapse still appears to be isolated to a very tiny area in the western region of a continent otherwise experiencing continued glacial and ice shelf advancement.

Antarctica isn’t melting at all.

“(Other than) one minuscule area soaking in water warmed by volcanic activity, Antarctica isn’t melting at all. And with air temperatures averaging consistently below zero and water temperatures barely above freezing — even in summer — nothing in the foreseeable future suggests it might.

“In fact, despite the IPCC insistence that global warming will be most prevalent at the poles, southern-hemisphere sea ice area has remained virtually unchanged since satellite sensors and analytical programs were first capable of measuring it in 1979.

See entire, including several graphs, in The American Thinker:
Original title: “Antarctica and the Myth of Deadly Rising Seas”
Thanks to Burt Rutan for this link

“Do we trust the models or the real data? ” asks Burt. “Why is it that the guys who do models do not seem to be interested in checking the data or data veracity, even when their models fail to predict the result?”

“Another, even more troubling observation: The ‘science’ publications increasingly cover the scare and the modeling, while the Non-Science publications are increasingly seeking out real science, real data and publishing it.”