There is NO climate emergency!

“Nothing extraordinary or unprecedented is happening … the models are wrong.”
– Dr. Jay Lehr and Tom Harris
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“Climate activists claim we face a global warming emergency that demands we replace dependable, inexpensive fossil fuels with so-called “green” energy, such as wind and solar power,” writes Paul Driessen. “Not only would this starve society of the energy we need to survive. Real-world data demonstrate that there is no climate emergency! It is a manufactured crisis, created by vested interests – activists, scientists and crony capitalists – and adopted without question by opportunistic politicians, regulators and media pundits for their own interests.

“In this article, Dr. Jay Lehr and Tom Harris explain that climate fluctuation we are witnessing today is simply the normal climate variability that has occurred throughout Earth and human history. The climate scare is based primarily on the output of computer models that do not work, because they focus predominantly on greenhouse gases, and because we do not yet understand planetary climate well enough to know what mathematical equations to program into the models.

“However, there is a climate-related emergency, they conclude. It is the threat to our way of life, imposed on us by climate alarmists, many of whom do not really care about climate change, people or the environment. It’s time for people and governments to fight back.”

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There is NO climate emergency!

Climate models predict disaster – but real world evidence shows no such thing

Dr. Jay Lehr & Tom Harris

Speaking at the 13th International Conference on Climate Change, held July 25 in Washington, DC, Dr. Roy W. Spencer of the University of Alabama in Huntsville said: “There is no climate crisis. Even if all the warming we’ve seen in any observational dataset is due to increasing CO2 (carbon dioxide), which I don’t believe it is, it’s probably too small for any person to feel in their lifetime.”

And yet, that same month, Democrat Representatives Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Earl Blumenauer and Democrat Senator Bernie Sanders introduced a non-binding resolution that demands a “national, social, industrial and economic mobilization” – to “halt, reverse, mitigate and prepare for the consequences of the climate emergency, and to restore the climate for future generations.” Six Democrat presidential candidates immediately supported the resolution, as a way to spur “sweeping reforms” to stem a “dangerous rise in global temperatures.”

In their view, apparently, asserting a climate emergency makes it a reality and justifies national or even global control and transformation of our energy, social, industrial, economic, legal and social systems.

Thus, in an effort to drum up support for its costly “carbon tax,” the Liberal government of Canada has also declared a climate emergency. So has Britain’s Parliament, to back up a call by opposition Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn for “rapid and dramatic action” to protect the environment , following weeks of protests by the Extinction Rebellion climate movement, the Reuters News Agency reported.

The Climate Mobilization group proclaimed that “Over 790 local governments in 17 countries have declared a climate emergency and committed to action to drive down emissions at emergency speed.”

In considering whether this makes any sense, let’s take a page out of Blumenauer’s book and, as he put it, “tell the truth about the nature of this threat.”

The so-called emergency is based on nothing but the over-active imaginations of activists who put too much faith in computer model forecasts, while ignoring historic records and observational data that tell us nothing extraordinary or unprecedented is happening – and demonstrate that the models are wrong.

NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies asserts that between 1880 and 2017 there has been only slightly more than 1 degree C (1.8 F) rise in the so-called global average temperature, despite a supposed 40% rise in atmospheric CO2 concentration. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) database of state-wide extreme weather records, arguably the best of its kind in the world, shows that so far in 2019 only one weather record has been set: the lowest temperature in Illinois history.

In 2018, the only records set were: the largest hailstone in Alabama history; the most rainfall in a 24-hour period in Hawaii; and the most precipitation in one year in Maryland, North Carolina, South Carolina and West Virginia. Many of these records broke, sometimes barely, records that had stood for many decades.

In 2017, the only record set was for the fastest wind gust in California. No records were set in 2016. In 2015, only two records: the most precipitation in a year in Arkansas and the largest hailstone in Illinois history. In 2014, only one record: the most rainfall in a 24-hour period in New York.

And so it goes, year after year, as we move into the past with the occasional state record set, as one would expect due to natural climate variability. In the first 18+ years of the 21st century, only two states recorded their maximum temperatures: South Carolina in 2012 and South Dakota in 2006. Contrast that with 1936, when 15 states set their all-time maximum temperature records.

Meanwhile, NOAA’s updated coastal sea level tide gauge data for 2016 show no evidence that the rate of sea level rise is accelerating. Seas are rising no faster than they have for many decades.

NOAA’s hurricane records go back to 1851. The data show that for almost 12 consecutive years – October 24, 2005 (after Wilma) until August 25, 2017 (Harvey) – not one major or moderate (Category 3-5) hurricane made landfall in the continental United States. That is the longest such period in history. In 2018, for the first time ever, not one “violent” (F4-5) tornado touched down in the United States.

To the great frustration of climate alarmists, the real-world instrumental record clearly shows that, not only is no climate emergency underway, but today’s climate is actually quite stable. Aside from the drive for world socialism, the climate scare is based on only one thing: computer model forecasts of what some say could happen someday if we do not restrict our use of fossil fuels to reduce CO2 emissions.

However, the models do not work. That’s because they focus predominantly on greenhouse gases, and because scientists do not understand planetary climate processes well enough to know what mathematical equations to program into the models. Observations demonstrate that the actual rate of warming between 1979 and 2017 is one-third of what the average of 102 different climate models predicted. In fact, that climate model average is now almost one full degree Fahrenheit above what satellites have measured!

It is also important to realize that your own local weather forecasts just one week ahead are accurate only half the time. Let’s drill a bit deeper into this scandal.

For the better part of three decades, governments have financed more than one hundred efforts to model our planet. They continue to do so even though none of the models has been able to recreate (hindcast) the known past, or after a decade of study accurately predict what was to happen just ten years later.

People are led astray, because generally speaking, the public has no clue what mathematical models actually are, how they work, and what they can and cannot do. To provide a simple insight into this complex subject, before we build airplanes or buildings, we make small scale physical models and test them against the stress and performances that will be required of them when they are actually built.

When dealing with systems that are totally beyond our control, we try to describe them with computer programs or mathematical equations that we hope may give answers to questions we have about how the system works today and in the future. We attempt to understand the variables that affect the system’s operation. Then we alter the variables and see how the outcomes are affected. This is called sensitivity testing and is the very best use of mathematical models.

Historically, we were never foolish enough to make economic decisions based on predictions calculated from equations we think might control how nature works. Perhaps the most active area for mathematical modeling is the economy and stock market. No one has ever succeeded in getting it right, and they have far fewer variables than Earth’s climate, which is governed by many powerful natural forces.

Yet, today, in the climate sphere, we are doing just that – and using the models to justify massive changes in our energy and economic systems. While no one knows all the variables affecting climate, there are likely hundreds of them. Here are some important factors for which we have limited understanding:

  • 1) seasonal, annual and decadal changes in solar irradiation;
  • 2) energy flows between the ocean and atmosphere;
  • 3) energy flows between the air and land;
  • 4) balance between Earth’s water, water vapor and ice;
  • 5) the impacts of clouds, both trapping heat below and preventing solar radiation from reaching Earth;
  • 6) understanding the planet’s ice;
  • 7) changes in mass among ice sheets, sea levels and glaciers;
  • 8) our ability to factor in hurricanes and tornadoes;
  • 9) the impact of vegetation on temperature;
  • 10) tectonic movements on ocean bottoms;
  • 11) differential rotation between Earth’s surface and its core; and
  • 12) solar system magnetic field and gravitational interactions.
  • I (Robert) am adding one more: Since there are more than three million underwater volcanoes, I am adding underwater volcanoes to the list.

Despite this vast uncertainty, today’s modelers claim they can forecast our planet’s climate for decades or even a century in the future – by looking primarily or solely at “greenhouse gases.” And they want our leaders to manage our energy, economic, agricultural, transportation and other systems accordingly.

Yes, there is a climate-related emergency. It is the threat to our way of life in the free democratic world – imposed on us by climate alarmists, many of whom do not really care about climate change, people or the environment. It is an assault no less frightening and damaging than the wars that have plagued mankind since the dawn of time. It’s time for people and governments to stand up to the power-hungry alarmists.

Dr. Jay Lehr is Senior Policy Advisor with of the Ottawa, Canada-based International Climate Science Coalition (ICSC) and former Science Director of The Heartland Institute, in Arlington Heights, Illinois. Tom Harris is Executive Director of ICSC and a policy advisor to Heartland.

 


8 thoughts on “There is NO climate emergency!”

  1. Perhaps the emergency is political, racial and religious and the people in a panic are using the global warming narrative as a cover to implement reforms that serve their political, racial and religious agenda without the public getting wise to the real objectives of their agenda’s like agenda 21 or the Georgia guide stones for example. A change to a cooler climate could unleash events that could severely undermine the control the elite’s exercise over the world system as we know it. It could lead to their downfall by plague, starvation, financial collapse and violence. When the money and the food go away people will start to become more critical of those in charge and there in lies the danger for the elite’s. The impulse to burn witches or scapegoats is not dead; it is merely placated by relative prosperity.

    • “The interesting thing about the Green New Deal is it wasn’t originally a climate thing at all.”

      Obviously that must have been said by a critic the the Green New Deal, right?

      Wrong. The speaker went on to say: “Do you guys think of it as a climate thing? Because we really think of it as a how-do-you-change-the-entire-economy thing.”

      The speaker was Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio Cortez’s (D-NY) chief of staff, Saikat Chakrabarti. He made it official a couple of months ago when he met with Sam Ricketts, climate director for Washington Gov. Jay Inslee (D), who has made combating climate change the center of his platform as he pursues the Democratic nomination for President in 2020.

      Plenty of skeptics of catastrophic anthropogenic global warming (CAGW) have pointed out plenty of times that there’s a lot more than science behind climate alarmism. There’s a good deal of political ideology—the ideology of socialism. And the skeptics aren’t the only ones who recognize this.

  2. I believe this article is a wonderful start and a great layman’s explanation. I will forward the link to several people I know are thoughtful on the topic, know there is something wrong wit the “offical story” but who need something they can wrap their minds around. It’s like parachuting behind enemy lines to retake the intellectual landscape. You have to plant the flag somewhere and recapture foot by foot from there.

    Of course it leaves out chaos theory, that long range weather prediction is mathematically impossible, the question of what is optimum climate, that CO2 is essential to life, etc., but it’s a start.

    In discussing the idea of ice ages with others I thought I might refer them to Wikipedia to learn about climate cycles, ice ages, interglacials, etc. I was saddened to discover that while Wikipedia acknowledges the past climate cycles accurately, they co-opt any future ones with this statement: “The amount of heat trapping gases emitted into Earth’s oceans and atmosphere will prevent the next ice age, which otherwise would begin in around 50,000 years, and likely more glacial cycles.”

    So there you have it. According to Wikipedia the next ice age and LIKELY MORE have already been prevented. What hogwash!

    They cite https://www.livescience.com/1846-global-warming-good-news-ice-ages.html

    and

    https://www.pik-potsdam.de/news/press-releases/human-made-climate-change-suppresses-the-next-ice-age

    as their authoritative sources.

    We need to edit that statement out. To state that the next ice age has been suppressed based on those sources is outrageous!

    • just a note wiki cli fi pages are prett much controlled BY the warmists and constantly watched to stop real truth getting posted
      william astley? aspell? or something close to that WAS given warning and removed for a while after multitudes of complaints but seems to be back in control of that section again;-(

  3. This is not a scientific question. The whole CO2, climate argument is a political scam of many decades duration to establish a global tyranny in the name of protecting the Earth. It is poorly argued nonsense meant to justify dictatorship. Until this is clearly understood there will be no real solution.

    The governments of the Western world are thoroughly undemocratic even as they hide behind false machinery of democratic legitimacy. Until this is understood there can be no solution. However good the science in opposition may be that science will be denied, ignored, mocked, sidetracked and excluded from consideration wherever possible. There is nothing here but a propaganda exercise which will be protected at all costs.

    There is no science here, but only an open fraud reaching for total power counting on the ignorance, gullibility, and stupidity of the relevant populations. May it fail. The governments involved should fall for perpetrating a major and destructive hoax on the world. Senior governmental personnel, elected and administrative, should go to jail for this fraud. Until this can be grasped we will be awash in pseudo-scientific gibberish.

  4. the northern beaches council (SYDNEY AUSTRALIA) has voted YES declaring a state of climate emergency ‘we all thing they should be concentrated on collecting garbage and mowing parks

  5. Cold kills: 700 years past the Holocene Interglacial Epoch, facing Zharkova’s projected Super-Grand Solar Minimum through c. AD 2110, human populations face a disaster similar to that of 1350 – 1420, when two-thirds (66%) of northern peoples perished of shortened growing seasons, crop failures, disease and famine, internecine wars.

    Like every macro-phenomenon in nature, Earth’s “climate change” is a chaotic/fractal, random-recursive, dual-dynamic process objectively unpredictable in astro-geophysical detail. Over some 1,500-million years, from the pre-Cambrian Ediacaran Period to the mid-Pliocene 3.6 million YBP, dustmote Earth experienced no global glaciations (“Ice Ages”). But from the Andes – American-Canadian orogeny in Paleocene/Oligocene times some 45 mm YBP, connecting North and South American continents have blocked global atmospheric/oceanic circulation patterns by walling off Eastern from Western hemispheres.

    Though paleo-climatologists have yet to “model” this large-scale, long-term, geophysical re-orientation, which not only coalesced surface topography but elevated continents’ western coastal regions “from the Pole to the Horn”, the geologically recent result has been cyclical Pleistocene Ice Ages averaging 102 kiloyears, interspersed with interstadial remissions of median 12,250 years.

    On this basis, Earth’s most recent Würmian Glaciation lasted from c. 116,400 – 14,400 YBP, followed by the Holocene Interglacial Epoch ending 12,250 + 3,500 – 14,400 = AD 1350 (Roman calendar, skewed by the 1,500-year Younger Dryas “cold shock” of 11,950 – 10,450 YBP). Meantime, Earth’s semi-millennial Medieval Warm ended coincident with Kamchatka’s strato-volcano Kambalny Eruption plus a 70-year Grand Solar Minimum to AD 1420 similar to that of 1645 – 1715, precipitating a 500-year Little Ice Age through AD 1850/1890.

    Wegener’s plate-tectonic shifts aside, recent researchers not imbued with chiliastic Doomsday Cult hysteria have linked Earth’s century+ scale climatic regimes with sunspot cycles’ Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) affecting our Inner System’s solar magnetic field (SMF): Reduced irradiance at Sunspot Minima weakens the system’s “plasma sheath” to increase penetration by Cosmic Rays seeding global cloud cover. As long-term overcast persists, temperatures drop; snowfalls accumulate; and –voila!– absent countervailing circumstances, glaciers two miles thick quite rapidly cover 60 – 70% of Earth’s habitable-zone landmasses.

    As Australian Robert Holmes’ “Mean Molar Mass version of the Ideal Gas Law” definitively demonstrated in December 2017, any planet’s global atmospheric-surface temperature (GAST) T = PM/Rp (qv), meaning that anthropogenic warming via “greenhouse CO2” emissions at 420 parts-per-million (.042% ppm) is a physical non-issue. Though objective, scientific fact means nothing to Eric Hoffer’s True Believer (1951), the reality is that Earth faces a Super-Grand Solar Minimum through c. AD 2110 (Zharkova) concurrent with a cyclical Pleistocene Ice Age beginning 700 years ago.

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