This El Niño is HUGE! – Video

This El Niño is HUGE! – Video

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See comparisons between 1997 and 2015


 


Thanks to Allan Cotterill for this video


24 thoughts on “This El Niño is HUGE! – Video

  1. This is not an El Niño, and I bet that California is not getting rain this winter.

    This is desertification of the entire West Coast showing up in the oceans as well.

  2. In both comparisons, the East or hot side of the Pacific appears to be offset by a proportional amount of cooler Ocean to the West. One has to wonder, with the unusual killing frosts in Papua, and this hot East, cool West Ocean temps, how much would these temp. differentials cancel each other out? Also kind of reminds me how freshwater lakes do a turn-over with the seasonal change. Though for oceans, if they ever do a turn-over, it would take years.

  3. Christians say that prayer is always answered. This sure looks like the answer to the prayers of the Pope, the POTUS and the rest of the CAGW gang. Should warm things up nicely for Paris (and may even prevent the Gore Effect from shutting the whole thing down in a blizzard). Pause? What Pause?

  4. Recently I posted a comment that has become absolutely wrong. I believed the El Nino we are seeing today is the result of the combination of a weak system and the “blob”. It appears after some additional review of more current data I was so wrong it can only be called embarrassing.

    Sorry gang.

  5. If there’s anything discernible between the two you’ll notice the 2015 version is much more variable and jumps about. Not nearly as fluid and slow building as in 97. The 2015 appears to move about with much more circulation mixing. Obviously not nearly as stable as the earlier slide.

  6. its also down low..so the tophalf of usa may not get the rain it needs regardless, mexico and down may get far more than they need or want.

    • You are very probably right and it is interesting that EL-Nino events seem to commence along the eastern Pacific “ring of fire”.

      Of course 0.04 % of the atmosphere – CO2 – is heating the oceans – volcanoes have nothing to do with it – just ask your favourite alarmist.

      Just once I wish we could be told the truth about these interesting events.

      I believe Robert is spot on when he says volcanism is continually heating the ocean depths.

      In the Pacific the area off the south American coastline is where 5 tectonic plates are buffeting each other.

      Is it just coincidence that this area of active volcanism is the originator of the El-Nino oceanic warming ?

  7. I’m interested in AFTER the Niño….temperatures have fallen steadily following the 2009 and 2011 events. I’m betting this is part of the course for the extreme weather worldwide and a just as strong La Niña will take hold dropping temps past the 2012 mark. That’s Joe Bastardi’s theory and I think he’s right…but if this ends up setting a new temperature plateau like 97 did I would rethink the whole global warming thing because of evidence…

    • But but but – the end effect of El-Nino is releasing ocean heat to the atmosphere and this alone casts serious doubt on CO2 driven infra-red radiation heating. It is why we have these elevated atmospheric temperatures -99% of the atmospheric gases have limited radiation capability.

      Oxygen and nitrogen are the “heat trapping” gases not greenhouse gases at all.

      IR does not penetrate the ocean beyond a few millimetres. At best it results in some more evaporation which is removing “heat” from the oceans.

      If the oceans are heated from above the Sun’s radiation is almost solely responsible.

      If the oceans are heated from below volcanism is responsible.

      I suspect both play the dominate role whilst IR from the atmosphere has little to do with it.

      So yes – if this El-Nino causes a spike in atmospheric temperatures we will be deluged with global warming alarmism but you are right when you say what happens after is also important.

      La-Nina events allow for atmospheric cooling because all the extra water vapour condenses high in the atmosphere forming clouds, releasing the latent heat of evaporation which can quickly radiate to space – El-Nino events hinder this loss of energy.

      Australia’s BOM – an alarmist organisation if ever there was one – has now forecast this El-Nino will be a big event BUT will quickly be followed by a large La-Nina event.

      So they are prophesying heat and drought and cool and heavy rain.

      Can’t really miss with a prediction like that can you ?

    • Thats how Joe Bastardi at Weatherbell sees it. He is saying this is the test he’s been waiting for that will be coming up. If temperatures plunge in the following La Nina with the AMO negative and the PDO to turn negative it’s going to be very near impossible to justify the AGW line within a few years by it’s proponents to the public. If on the other hand the La Nina is mild then we skeptics are going to have egg on our face. He’s betting the former is going to happen.

  8. I also think this “el Nino” is a pseudo one and that eastern equatorial SSTs will peak in the next month, then decline for the rest of the year, just like last year.

    For a real el Nino you need two things, halted even reversed trade winds, and halted Peruvian cold upwelling. Neither of these is convincingly happening yet.

    Beware anomaly maps – these are plotted relative to a “normal” that is constantly being adjusted and fiddled behind the scenes. Look at actual temperatures instead.

    • Good points, I agree.
      ONI (that measures the region closer to the Peruvian coast) is following 2007 moderate episode, although a little stronger,
      http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml
      It has not even reached the EL Nino status yet, but certainly will in the next update.
      If solar radiations go down as I’m expecting, the ONI index, in the end, should show no more than 5-6 trimester averages with anomalies above 0.5 C, similar to what happened in 2007.
      My understanding is that the magnitude of the El Nino is inversely affected by solar radiations.

  9. This so-called “hotspot”in the Pacific I read somewhere, might actually be caused by holes in the ozonelayer, allowing unfiltered solar radiation in that heats the oceanwater.
    Is that connection hotspot and ozone hole indeed valid or not ?

    • Not. Ozone ‘holes’ (thinning really) appear over the magnetic poles, and wax and wane with the seasons and solar activity. But since the magnetic poles are speeding up their wandering from true N. & S. I suppose there could be ozone thinning at other strong magnetic regions. Sounds like a good question for Vukcevic. http://www.vukcevic.co.uk/

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