This talk of warmest year on record is totally misleading

Guest Opinion: Dr. Tim Ball

(Excerpts) – Recent discussion about record weather events, such as the warmest year on record, is a totally misleading and scientifically useless exercise. This is especially true when restricted to the instrumental record that covers about 25% of the globe for at most 120 years. The age of the Earth is approximately 4.54 billion years, so the sample size is 0.000002643172%.

Discussing the significance of anything in a 120-year record plays directly into the hands of those trying to say that the last 120-years climate is abnormal and all due to human activity. It is done purely for political propaganda, to narrow people’s attention and to generate fear.

Antarctic Ice Core Record - Dr Tim Ball
Figure 1. Antarctic ice core record

The misdirection is based on the false assumption that only a few variables and mechanisms are important in climate change, and they remain constant over the 4.54 billion years.

Two major themes of the AGW claims are that temperature change is greater and more rapid than at any time in the past. This is false, as a cursory look at any longer record demonstrates. If it wasn’t, the actions taken to change the record are unnecessary. The Antarctic and Greenland ice core records both illustrate the extent of temperature change in short time periods. Figure 1 (above) shows a modified Antarctic ice core record.

The horizontal scale on the x-axis is too small to identify even the length of the instrumental record (the last 120 years).

The AGW proponents successfully got the world focused on CO2, which is just 0.04% of the total atmospheric gases and varies considerably spatially and temporally. I used to argue that it is like determining the character, structure, and behavior of a human by measuring one wart on the left arm. In fact, they are only looking at one cell of that wart for their determination.

Temperature record for past 10000 years - Steve Goreham
Figure 2. Temperature record last 10,000 years

Steve Goreham shows how small a portion it is in this diagram of the last 10,000 years (Figure 2).

Another graph shows the same period, the Holocene Optimum, in a different form (Figure 3, below).

Holocene Temperature Record - Dr Tim Ball
Figure 2. Greenland ice core record last 10,000 years

The temperature range in this period is approximately 3.75°C (28.75 to 32.5°C) but is above the current annual average global temperature for most of the 10,000 years. Just put the approximately 120-years of instrumental record in any segment of the graph and you see how it is cooler than most of the period and well within natural variability.

See entire article:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/02/07/long-term-climate-change-what-is-a-reasonable-sample-size/

Thanks to J.H. Walker for this link

“As far as this interglacial is concerned, this one has never reached the heights that Greenland reached in other Interglacial’s,” says J.H. “In my opinion this is as warm as its going to get.”

“Another observation from the graph is that the previous Ice period was longer and deeper than the preceding three other Ice periods over the last 400,000 years.

“Notice how big the drop off is once the ice advance starts.
If that isn’t an extinction event I don’t know what is.”

18 thoughts on “This talk of warmest year on record is totally misleading”

  1. The claims by climate alarmists go wrong because of their Prime Assumption based on linear trends and relationships in the climate system.

    The logic is inescapable: If recent climate change is linear, mankind may be responsible for most of the change; if non-linear, then Nature may be responsible. The job of scientists is to partition the causes and effects to Nature and to Mankind.

    The IPCC has defined their version of climate change as human-driven. Thus Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) can be tested based on whether or not the climate system is linear.

    Since 1950, observed CO2 increase as a human driver of climate change can be made linear by taking logarithms.

    But has climate change been linear? Has climate change ever been linear? Many lines of evidence with multiple datasets on all timescales show that climate is cyclical or quasi-periodic. Climate change over decades, centuries and millennia has not been linear, not even after transforming by logarithms.

    That tells us that there is something amiss with the Prime Assumption of the AGW model. Yet climate alarmists continue to argue as if the climate system is linear. Unfortunately, sceptics engage in discussion of straight-line trends. Sceptics like to demonstrate that “my-straight-line-trend-is-less-alarming-than-your-straight-line-trend”. Thus nany sceptics fall into the trap set by the Prime Assumption of the alarmists.

    By participating in discussion about straight-line trends, sceptics implicitly accept the linear model and ignore the non-linear model. However, the IPCC has formally defined the climate system as non-linear. Sceptics can and should therefore reject all claims by alarmists based on the linear model because only the linear model can confirm AGW.

    By participating in discussion based on straight-line trends, sceptics fail to use the best evidence available. That evidence shows that key drivers of climate change are non-linear and therefore natural, not man-made.

    This is the context in which I view the graphics provided by Professor Ball, a straightforward demonstration of the non-linear model.

  2. Hey, wait a minute, are you telling Me that NASA and the NSIDC would “fabricate” World Temperatures just for their own “gain”, Really ?

    Now I live in Southern California and it just so happens that recent Winter temperatures have exceeded 110° degrees ?

    Would you believe 80° and 10 degrees ??

    O.K., how about 40° and 10 degrees ???

    Well, one thing that I know for sure is that the U.S. Government reporting agencies have “no” reason to lie, about anything, except when they get paid for it, and receive Caribbean Cruises, on the Tax Payers money ($$,$$$.00), but only in the Winter time, when Tropical Vacations are the most expensive, but limited only to “4” weeks, and then the rest comes out of their “bonuses”, which “never”exceed”,… $35,000, and only on the weekends, their normal days off, which actually are “Friday thru Tuesday” ?

    BUT THAT’S IT !

    Except for leap years !!!

    This message has been brought to You by the “Marxists for America” educational center, which is paid for by the “Trusted” United States American Tax Payers, whom have “finally” come to the “conclusion” (And Senses) that they “Owe” Us, back pay, because they didn’t believe Us way back when, just before “Our” Supreme Leader, Barack Insane Obama, became the “Global Warming”, opps I meant “Global [Climate]” Ivy League Constitutional “Genius”, whom has brought Us to this “magical” moment in time !!!!

    May our Supreme Leader go with You

    Sincerely yours,

    Harry Krishna

    1. Quote:

      Hey, wait a minute, are you telling Me that NASA and the NSIDC would “fabricate” World Temperatures just for their own “gain”, Really ?

      Comment:
      Yes, the process is called entryist politics, were you place key people in positions where they can influence policy, according to the propaganda they have been subjected to during their degree studies and at the feet of like minded Green terrorists in Academia, and their own belief system, in this case AGW.
      This fraud has been 40 years in the making, it has gotten so large that it has corrupted the governments of the western world, to the point were they tell lies to the people, and steal their assets, and further educates young people into a Gaia fairy tale, that will end in a very cold mini ice age and the upset to the worlds civilization it will cause.

      1. Yes, cannot disagree with that, it is a global fraud being perpetrated on the People whom their governments are supposed to represent. As such their actions should be protective of Country and People, their Country. In this they fail.

  3. In spite of I don’t buy the global warming manipulation, based on misleading data, I have to acknowledge that this winter 2016 in Spain, has been the warmest and weird. I live in Spain’s northwest ( a pretty cold area ) and still this is almost like living Spring season. However in the US, the snow storms have been pretty intense. So what’s the explanation for this according the global cooling theory?

    1. In a heat engine chaos system such as the earth’s climate there can not be a climate theory, only periods of climate order of 140 years and disorder of around 32 years.

      This can be by an observation of events, particularly when those events are repeated during specific solar events such as this modern minimum, and are documented to have occurred during previous solar minimums, right back to the Homeric Minimum.

      For the west coastal fringe of Europe including the Baltic that is increased windiness and rainfall, in Central Europe from December onwards increased Snowfall, with Monster winters in Northern Asia and North America.

      In the last 40 years we have had three large El Nino; all three have warmed the westerly airstream regions of the US, and provided the excuses for AGW, as well as causing the usual misery of excess rainfall over American drought stricken areas. That excess rainfall has kept moving east into Europe and Asia.

      One feature of this and other minimums is the change in direction of Jet streams from West to East with little wave movement, to as now, jet streams which are fully meridional and blocked into a static wave by large atmospheric structures for weeks at a time.

      The research into the Homeric Minimum indicates the European climate changed within ten years of the Minimum starting, This Minimum started in 2008, I would suggest the change is well under way, only eight years into the minimum. This winter may well have a sting in its tail, with a 6 week cold period, a snowy Easter and a very late spring.

      This is the first cycle in this minimum; the next one will be even lower in solar output, perhaps we might even see frost fairs on rivers in Europe not affected by Power Plant waste heat.

      1. btw, can you explain in more details this from above? Thank you.

        One feature of this and other minimums is the change in direction of Jet streams from West to East with little wave movement, to as now, jet streams which are fully meridional and blocked into a static wave by large atmospheric structures for weeks at a time.

    2. Pier, watch Piers Corbyn, there is a lot more wild loops in the jet stream, but you are surrounded by alot of water, I am at the same Lat. as Madrid, southwest of Lake Michigan, still fishing on 5 inches of ice, been slightly above normal temps here 3 weeks, now going well below. More Ice.

    3. You can find temperature records in past decades that had some mild winters. This is exactly the issue with GW, claiming planetary warming when some areas are having very harsh winters and some very mild. Also, people planet-wide are migrating to warmer climates. Their perception of normal is different than those living in these climates for many decades. I have seen 22C on christmas day as a child and 25C in february. It was only 30 years ago when the worst christmas week broke all low temp records including a historic all time low of -10C.

    4. Global cooling doesn’t mean that every place on the planet will cool at the same time. A lot of it has to do with jet stream behaviour, which in turn is linked to solar activity. Just because your region is a bit warmer than usual for this time of year doesn’t mean that our planet is getting warmer. Just wait and see.

      1. i see reconstructions of last ice age on adapt2030 showing a warmish alaska and normal temps in the western US, then cold to the east. Weather patterns and jet stream today remind me of those maps.

  4. And yet the alarmist and their water carriers, the main stream media, still ring the alarm bells of coming catastrophe and the average person does look for or find articles like this one.

  5. Frederick-
    You must be an “Old Fart”. It’s been a long time since I’ve heard anyone, scientist or not, make such a logical, reasoned argument. I’m afraid the paradigm has shifted, my friend, and you don’t have a ghost of a chance of anyone listening to you, just because you make sense!
    I’d like to get my hands on a book I read when I was very young, titled THE MARCHING MORONS, by C.M. Kornbluth I think, written in the days when SF was still about science. I have a feeling I would appreciate it a lot better now.

  6. The second plot above, with the line extending back in time showing that past interglacials were warmer than the Holocene is something that I did with a screen shot of Al Gores video “An Inconvenient Truth.” Someone gave the DVD to me and I showed them what you could do with his own data that people just don’t look at objectively. If an atavist shows you a plot, most times the rebuttal is found right in his own plot.

  7. I hope people like Mr. Tim Ball is keeping copies of this stuff to be used in a court of law should or when the time comes and be willing to make an extra copy for some else that needs it in their defense and that of everyone else’s. Is would be a collective effort by many like minded people.

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