Guest Opinion: Dr. Tim Ball
(Excerpts) – Recent discussion about record weather events, such as the warmest year on record, is a totally misleading and scientifically useless exercise. This is especially true when restricted to the instrumental record that covers about 25% of the globe for at most 120 years. The age of the Earth is approximately 4.54 billion years, so the sample size is 0.000002643172%.
Discussing the significance of anything in a 120-year record plays directly into the hands of those trying to say that the last 120-years climate is abnormal and all due to human activity. It is done purely for political propaganda, to narrow people’s attention and to generate fear.
The misdirection is based on the false assumption that only a few variables and mechanisms are important in climate change, and they remain constant over the 4.54 billion years.
Two major themes of the AGW claims are that temperature change is greater and more rapid than at any time in the past. This is false, as a cursory look at any longer record demonstrates. If it wasn’t, the actions taken to change the record are unnecessary. The Antarctic and Greenland ice core records both illustrate the extent of temperature change in short time periods. Figure 1 (above) shows a modified Antarctic ice core record.
The horizontal scale on the x-axis is too small to identify even the length of the instrumental record (the last 120 years).
The AGW proponents successfully got the world focused on CO2, which is just 0.04% of the total atmospheric gases and varies considerably spatially and temporally. I used to argue that it is like determining the character, structure, and behavior of a human by measuring one wart on the left arm. In fact, they are only looking at one cell of that wart for their determination.
Steve Goreham shows how small a portion it is in this diagram of the last 10,000 years (Figure 2).
Another graph shows the same period, the Holocene Optimum, in a different form (Figure 3, below).
The temperature range in this period is approximately 3.75°C (28.75 to 32.5°C) but is above the current annual average global temperature for most of the 10,000 years. Just put the approximately 120-years of instrumental record in any segment of the graph and you see how it is cooler than most of the period and well within natural variability.
Thanks to J.H. Walker for this link
“As far as this interglacial is concerned, this one has never reached the heights that Greenland reached in other Interglacial’s,” says J.H. “In my opinion this is as warm as its going to get.”
“Another observation from the graph is that the previous Ice period was longer and deeper than the preceding three other Ice periods over the last 400,000 years.
“Notice how big the drop off is once the ice advance starts.
If that isn’t an extinction event I don’t know what is.”