U.S. Navy predicts summer Arctic ice might disappear by 2016

Based on the Navy’s Regional Arctic System Model (RASM)

According to this article first published on 27 Nov 2013, the Navy’s the Regional Arctic System Model (RASM) “is arguably the most advanced – and accurate – Arctic climate model in existence.”

And this “most advance – and accurate” climate model shows that by the summer of 2016, the Arctic Ocean could be ice-free.

I’m thinking that the Naval Postgraduate School’s building of Engineering and Applied Sciences has been overtaken by political correctness.

From 2013, NPS researchers predict summer Arctic ice might disappear by 2016, 84 years ahead of schedule.


Caroline in West Virginia

“In 2007, the US Navy, which “uses complex modelling techniques that make its projections more accurate than others”, predicted that “Given the estimated trend and the volume estimate for October–November of 2007 at less than 9,000 km3, one can project that at this rate it would take only 9 more years or until 2016 ± 3 years to reach a nearly ice-free Arctic Ocean in summer,” says Caroline. “Boy, I think that they’re going to be eating those words!”

Let’s remember this in 2016, and see how well the Navy’s climate models worked.

23 thoughts on “U.S. Navy predicts summer Arctic ice might disappear by 2016”

  1. What a bunch of BS!! If anything, ice extent in 2016 will be another 650,000 sq miles higher than it is right now! Nobody predicted this massive increase in Arctic ice in the last 2 years. The rest is just government political krap.

  2. So, Everybody, save this to a file, 2016 is only 2 years away, we can easily check the Navy’s prediction for accuracy.

  3. Just like the military, fighting the last warm cycle.
    Another model bites the dust. Guess they don’t know about the 18 year pause…….

  4. I think the US had better decide to haul in its horns and place those big flattops in dry dock if this is the best the Navy can do with simulations. They need to put their money where their mouths are and plan to take those carrier battle fleets from the Atlantic to the Pacific via the North Pole. It would be interesting to see how far they get before the non-existent ice got to them.

  5. To quote a passage from the movie Midway:
    “We all know that the Navy is never wrong, but in this case, it is a bit weak on being right!”

    It appears to me that the designers of the “RSAM Model” were graduates of “Gores School for AGW Robots”! Obviously short sighted, and far from reality!

  6. We will be well advised not paying any attention to MSM “news”
    They all purposely false and/or misleading.
    This goes in all categories including- health,economy,education etc.

  7. It is painfully obvious that the USA has for leaders morons. Obama is the top of a giant pimple filled with fools. Time to pop the pimple!

  8. The key word here is “might” .It is a meaningless word that gives them a get out clause when it does not happen.By saying “U.S. Navy predicts summer Arctic ice might disappear by 2016” is enough to keep the scam alive and lots of MSM coverage. It’s how advertising works, a product does not have to work that well but keep advertising the product and the people will buy it.

  9. maybe they need to send a ship there?
    and talking of idiotic claims
    Robert..I just sent you a link to an Aussie papers report that defies sane.
    antarctic/gravity claims
    I kid you not.

  10. People never learn do they? Computer models are just a digital construct based on assumptions and data inputs that may not be accurate. Garbage in, garbage out. Look at the real world and make judgments on that basis.

  11. Well when the “Commander in Chief” says Global Warming abounds, does anyone really think some Officer who’s looking for a career in the Navy is going to disagree with him. The unfortunate realities of working for the Military, you have no bill of rights.

  12. I certainly hope their ability to predict future climate isn’t reflective of their ability to predict the weather or potential enemy movements. We could be looking at a grossly incompetent branch of our armed forces, totally unprepared to deal with enemy threats.

    • Yes Mike, I certainly can’t wait for the exit of this sorriest excuse for a President I’ve ever witnessed. I just hope by then all the sane people in this country are still able to hold things together.

  13. This is funny to me however there is anecdotal evidence that if you look at past melt rates of the arctic ice cap the volumes fall under a 5 year cycle…its a two year increase followed by a more substantial 3 year decline…following past melt rates of post 2010 even if this holds true the Navy will be right in 2018 because we have started the 1000 day drop in comparasion to previous years…now what I believe is this 2014 was the second slowest melt season volume wise during the satellite era I believe only 1996 was slower…this trend will continue and the cap isn’t going anywhere to the point you are just going to get gains….evidence in the cold arctic summers eventually the oceans won’t be able to transfer enough heat to melt that ice

  14. This won’t help USN get funding for the (ordinary) icebreakers they want in the arctic. Meanwhile the Russian navy expects to have the first of their new larger class nuclear powered icebreaker undergoing sea trials by 2017. One suspects they didn’t order more powerful nuclear icebreakers because they expect an ice free arctic.

  15. Looks like the US has a short memory. Very thin ice in the 1950’s and they were the ones who discovered it !

  16. I’m thinking the US Navy should stick to what it does well, spend a little more time worrying about Putin and a little less time playing climatologist.

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